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Mcconnor8

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Everything posted by Mcconnor8

  1. Mcconnor8
    MJB Unfortunately the full ensemble set is very depressing, the worry is that by the time we do get any blocking it will be March already and the cold won't have much bite or longevity to it, honestly I expect the MET to change their wording sooner rather than later.
  2. Mcconnor8
    MJB Maybe, but so far into FI not much point paying any attention to it, just as much chance of getting this from the OP.
  3. Mcconnor8
    MJB Don't think we're getting an Easterly out of that Control run sadly.
  4. Mcconnor8
    Spah1 Yep this is correct, and it did get about 5 miles offshore so very close.
  5. Mcconnor8
    Snow boundary for Thursday per the UKMO 12z.
  6. Mcconnor8
    Drifter The absence of any cold uppers across the whole of Europe on this GFS run is quite outstanding albeit into FI.
  7. Mcconnor8
    Ali1977 Have seen it be wrong before, I think it was Storm Ciaran back in November it along with the Arome was taking quite a different track to the UKMO/ECM at just 24-36 hours out but turned out to be wrong and it followed UKMO very closely.
  8. Mcconnor8
    E17boy Yeah pretty sure London won't be in play especially given it is always a degree or 2 warmer than surrounding areas as well.
  9. Mcconnor8
    bluearmy T48 are what most people are interested in now haha, it does make a difference for the snow divide on Thursday
  10. Mcconnor8
    Battleground Snow Shows how far we have to go with modelling when they are all over the place at just 48 hours out
  11. Mcconnor8
    Chesil View At this point I think everybody is fed up of post day 7/8 charts this Winter which don't materialise so majority won't pay attention until anything interesting is at day 5/6, this really has been a tedious Winter in that regard so I don't blame them. Now we only have a few weeks of proper Winter left anyhow so can't get any more pushbacks on good charts if they do start popping up again.
  12. Mcconnor8
    sheikhy Latest UKMO run moved North slightly on the 0z run, models all over the place still!
  13. Mcconnor8
    TEITS I don't think they are programmed in this way, only with the mathematical equations and not with historical weather patterns, it is the AI models which use historical weather to calculate future patterns. It is just a very complex situation with this low and small differences lead to large movement in the shape of the low and its track.
  14. Mcconnor8
    Purga If we do eventually get an Easterly at this rate it is going to be the warmest February easterly ever
  15. Mcconnor8
    Lukesluckybunch Yep, maybe transient snow to rain prior to this in Wales and Central England but probably brief.
  16. Mcconnor8
    Allseasons-Si Snowline is further North on Thursday though I think
  17. Mcconnor8
    Ali1977 ICON 18z and GFS 18z both look further North than their respective 12z runs.
  18. Mcconnor8
    MJB UKMO is becoming isolated in that sense though with ECM producing this for the weekend the same as the GFS
  19. Mcconnor8
    MJB UKMO has any precipitation over the weekend as rain as that is even with the coldest uppers of all the models
  20. Mcconnor8
    MJB -8 uppers and below are cold air and that isn't present on the UKMO, GFS and ECM have higher uppers than the UKMO as well.
  21. Mcconnor8
    MJB That is a huge downgrade on the 0z run, no real cold air there at all.
  22. Mcconnor8
    MJB Not anymore with ECM joining it.
  23. Mcconnor8
    ECM goes GFS at T+120
  24. Mcconnor8
    Lukesluckybunch Looks very close to the 6z, maybe a touch further North more so over Ireland. However a definite move North by 96 Hours.
  25. Mcconnor8
    Quite a contrast from UKMO at day 5 compared to the 0z run to say the least.
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