Mcconnor8
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Everything posted by Mcconnor8
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850s there are now 3-4 degrees so not a suprise
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UKV 18z brings the snow a tiny bit further inland than the 15z, at least it is adjusting the right way more in line with current radar
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Heavier precipitation would lead to more evaporative cooling though so it is a fine line indeed
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Yeah that was 1 perturbation I posted here that went crazy, the actual det runs didn't look anything like that, it does look like it made landfall further North into France than models suggested as well as earlier
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Added to above post, not worth looking at models anymore when radar is vastly different.
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Current radar looks nothing like all the models which were similar to the Arome 12z, could well be further North I think...
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Certainly looking good for the South Coast at least currently given UKV did have snow just breaching it later on the run.
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Got to say it does seem to be moving in quicker than the UKMO 12z model has it for this time, whether that will lead to it being further North later on who knows! Seeing as models seem to be quite a way out at a 5 hour lead time there definitely is scope for surprises tomorrow! The Arome 12z seems even further out with precipitation barely reaching Brest which isn't close to reality.
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Latest Arome doesn't make it, I would say Radar is currently slightly further North than what Arome has for the current time however.
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Current radar of rainfall looks pretty in line with most the models to me, West and roughly in line with South Cornwall
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JFF that perturbation would have the South under 20cm of snow, no other model or run showing anything remotely close to this one though haha
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That is the mean though, probably helped along by this perturbation going a bit crazy lmao
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UKV trying to give us last minute hope
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Yeah may be a tad breezy still.
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Yeah at this point whether it actually reverses and is classed as an SSW is purely academic now, and annoying to see how strongly the vortex rebounds in the next few weeks but hopefully the downswelling waves will come in February regardless.
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Are perturbations 6, 11 or 27 really too much to ask for?
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Compilation of the latest either 12z or 6z runs from each model for Wednesday morning, only thing that is clear is it is unclear whether the South will see anything.
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Arome gives hope for the far South East
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This doesn't look too fun, luckily still 6 days away on the GFS, good chance we continue our journey through the alphabet over the next couple of weeks.
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This run also has snow in the midlands as the low moves away.
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ICON 18z looking slightly more North than the 12z did, should hit the South Coast again and a bit further inland too.
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GFS 12z looks to be moving further North as well here.
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UKMO and GEM doing the same by day 4 as well.
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These only running out to Wednesday at the moment.
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Lucky that it is over 5 days away then haha
