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Mcconnor8

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Everything posted by Mcconnor8

  1. Mcconnor8
    UKMO does look further North than the 0z run noticeably and a more rounded low.
  2. Mcconnor8
    Quite a sizeable shift South from 12z GFS
  3. Mcconnor8
    andy989 Would have thought corrections North would be worse for you than South as airmass will become too mild.
  4. Mcconnor8
    Arpege 12z is a touch further North than the 6z run with the cold uppers, however it does still show snow/sleet on the precipitation charts.
  5. Mcconnor8
    IDO Stark difference compared to the 0z run and not in a good way.
  6. Mcconnor8
    UKMO 06z run that goes to 66 Hours did shift the snow boundary North compared to the 0z run.
  7. Mcconnor8
    blizzard81 GEM verification is often close to the ECM & UKMO, however yes the JMA is not a good model at all, ICON is behind the top models as well
  8. Mcconnor8
    SLEETY we got the first laying snow in a good few years here lol with heavy snow for a couple of hours, we really do need easterlies to produce much here usually with the colder 850s they bring and the models do look promising in this regard for the period around the 20th.
  9. Mcconnor8
    offerman Thread for Met Office discussions
  10. Mcconnor8
    ECM 18z Control was much further south than the 12z run with the low on Thurs/Fri next week.
  11. Mcconnor8
    Johnp The GFS has the -6/-8 Isotherm reaching the South of the UK on the 11th so after the ICON run finishes so wouldn't expect it on that run, it is marginally better than the 0z run but obviously no deep cold on the horizon soon. GFS 12z with quite a different shape to the low than the 6z and actually looks further North now.
  12. Mcconnor8
    Don Have a feeling the GFS 12z will be a good run at least, the 6z ensemble pack improved a lot and early on the 12z looks much of the same. Interestingly the Arpege 12z which only runs to T+114 seems to bring some heights into Greenland that weren't there on the 6z and aren't on the ICON 12z.
  13. Mcconnor8
    Could UK heatwaves be given names this summer? WWW.BBC.CO.UK With global temperatures rising and heatwaves becoming more intense, could naming them help awareness? This is interesting, what do people think of expanding the naming process to heatwaves as well?
  14. Mcconnor8
    MJB Does seem to be pretty much on its own in the ensemble pack though, but hope remains.
  15. Mcconnor8
    Well the pub run looks improved on the 12z so far, not that it is much of an achievement.
  16. Mcconnor8
    GFS 06z ensemble pack is much colder than the 0z run, with the mean isotherm almost reaching -5 in London on the 6th and Control/OP on the same page, let's hope this trend continues on the 12z runs.
  17. Mcconnor8
    @Dennis Yes the Control has a blizzard in the South East lol, at least we are starting to see promising charts in FI so there is some hope now.
  18. Mcconnor8
    @Nick123 dont think they would put out additional warnings at this point unless there was something red worthy showing suddenly, even though the models may have underestimated winds in some areas for today.
  19. Mcconnor8
    @Nick123 UKV model does look like it has a quieter patch of winds around this time for the East then it will pick up again in the next couple of hours and overnight
  20. Mcconnor8
    Yeah Isha was strengthening for the entire time it was moving past us to below 950mb once it was North of Scotland, Jocelyn will be around 970mb and weakening when it is North of Scotland as well as not tracking as close to the UK as Isha did so less impact.
  21. Mcconnor8
    If I remember correctly the highest 850 values arrived in the South East overnight on the 18th so if they had occurred 12 hours later there probably would have been an even higher max around 41/42 instead, but the minimum values we got as a result were record breaking by a long way in some areas and definitely worth mentioning too.
  22. Mcconnor8
    We share naming with them so they don't have too once it is named by the Irish Met
  23. Mcconnor8
    Has now been named, chance of some areas of NI and Scotland moving to Amber.
  24. Mcconnor8
    Main wind impacts will be late in the evening and overnight for Northern UK and Scotland, with heavy rain during the day, good chance that the yellow warning does become more widespread I think and still expect it to be named due to the high winds over NI and Scotland in particular.
  25. Mcconnor8
    The squall line currently across Bristol and Birmingham will be a windy one when it reaches us in a few hours
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