Sun Chaser

Finally anything below 15 is out of the forecast and it's looking almost completely dry, it took long enough but I think we've finally reached summer base state! Baby steps I guess, today we have a stunning start to what's going to be a brilliant May weekend

2021 worse than 2012 and 1993? Surely not

It's such a conflicting feeling. One moment it feels like we are in winter and then the heavy rain clears and suddenly it feels warm and almost summery. My mind is so ready to get excited for summer but my brain can't let myself do that yet knowing that it will probably rain before long. Though... the forecast is looking pretty decent if you ask me! (I appreciate those further east have had a tough time of it this spring and I do genuinely feel sorry for you) !

Interested to see where people would rank spring 2023 (so far) compared to some other recent poor springs, eg 2013, 2016, 2021. For me the bottom 5: 2018 - cold wet March and April. May was stunning so saves it from bottom 2021 - March was decent. April was sunny but cold. May was horrendous worst in living memory. Overall enough warm sunny memorable moments to save it 2016 - March meh. April awful. May was decent but not enough to save 2023 - very wet and dull. Synoptically uninteresting. There have been some nice days, at least it hasn't felt properly cold, however the constant threat of rain gets annoying. Could drop below 2013 if May ends poorly 2013 - only worse as it was just as dull and the cold NEVER went away. March and first half of April was soul destroying, the rest of spring was just poor. Drier than 2023 though

2022 has a very dry Jan-Aug, driest since 1976. Weather turned on 3rd September and the following four months were very wet. September itself did run ridiculously high however it was a very strange month: the first half had "decent" daytime temps but the nights were ridiculously mild so I remember the overall mean being around 2.5-3C above average. It was a wet spell with a lot of cloud but a lot of warm air and heat lag. The 12th having a higher daily mean than any day we got in the hot spells of Sep 2019/2020/2021. Around the 15th the weather switched and we had quite a "cool" high pressure regime, maxima stayed relatively similar but nights dropped by about 10 degrees so suddenly we were were getting very cool means despite more sunshine and less rain. Then it was unsettled to end so overall the CET was unimpressive

15 days away. Every chance the weather could flip by then as it's so far into FI! eg going into summer 2022 many were expecting a wet summer with the jubilee weekend being quite poor and the outlook for June not being great. Then a sudden flip on the models on about 8th June and the next two weeks were brilliant, and no one could have foreseen what followed in July and August! Hoping for all of us, especially you that by the 24th May we are having a sunny warm spell of weather.

May is more often than not actually quite disappointing! However if the cards fall right we end up with some of the best months of all time full stop, with low SSTs and long daylight hours ensuring maximum potential for sunshine. So while May 2021/2022 and now 2023 (so far) were pretty poor, May 2020 and 2018 were some of my favourite weather months of my lifetime!

I did defend April but this run of months is getting a little boring now. So far we're on track to be duller, and are already wetter than the dreaded spring of 2013 which I thought we would not get something as bad as that for decades. Temps have been fine but the lack of proper warmth has been annoying. Weirdly for me though it hasn't seemed as bad as the stats suggest, not since the start of April anyway? Anyway while the outlook isn't all doom and gloom I am beginning to crave a run of days with full sunshine and early 20s instead of just a few sporadic 19c days with some sun... been waiting for that since the end of August now, suppose we had some lovely days in October and even a very mild sunny spell in mid November but lots of rain in between. 868mm for the period Sept 1st 2022 - May 9th 2023 which is actually more than most full years, indeed the same period in sep21-may22 only got 531mm. I don't like to make negative posts, hopefully we get a change soon

Yup, completely unforecasted but was absolutely stunning from around 3pm onwards! Peaked at 19C which is 5C higher than expected. Very lucky this afternoon.

Haha true!! Though I suppose April was kind in that respect, a lot of the best weather occurred on Saturdays and Sundays. A pretty grim drizzly morning but unexpectedly it has brightened up and the temperature is already at 17C! Feels very warm and actually, dare I say it, quite summery (mostly due to the humidity). Tomorrow looks decent too

This forum never fails to be dramatic. It has been poor today yes but the weather from Thursday genuinely looks pretty good and at this point we look like we could be on for another warm May. Tomorrow also looks like it could be a nice warm day. But you'd think we were in the middle of May 2021 again or something I would love clear blue skies at the moment but it is what it is. Also I'd rather have the rain in spring than in summer. The Atlantic can't keep bothering us forever!

Even here in the SW I found 21 to be pretty decent, the period mid June - mid July we got a much better deal than the SE with some really nice days in between the wet weather. June and July 21 I consider both to be good summer months. 20 on the other hand was dire all the way through apart from three days in June and one week in August. 2020 (the first half of June and July makes me feel sick to look at): 2021 (just felt happy to have no prolonged spells of mid-high teens):

Indeed. Reminiscent of 2016 which was also fairly cool and wet and didn't give us much early warmth, a run of days in the low 20s in the second week of May probably being the best of it.

Very well said. Unfortunately due to the location of the MO station, it will always be cooler than what the rest of Plymouth experiences so I go off bearsbythesea instead. I find it to be very accurate. I doubt it significantly overestimates as the station suggests 31C was not reached even once from 2011-2019. I often enjoy looking at the Wareham site you run as well, didn't know both stations use the same equipment! (also to be clear we had a very breezy S/SE'ly this afternoon so there was definitely a cool sea breeze affecting temps)

Official weather station ~5 miles from me, on top of a windy cliff face directly surrounded by the sea so I imagine there's a great cooling effect compared to the rest of the area

After getting so close with 19.9C on Saturday... finally today we reached our first 20C! A beautiful day, we missed just about any cloud in our area. May is off to a brilliant start, complete polar opposite to last year. Hopefully it continues after this upcoming unsettled spell!

Weirdly both March and April both ended up above average here in terms of average maximums - both by 0.1C. Both a fair bit wetter and duller than average though, March being a disaster and April less extreme but still not great.

Absolutely! Love all the colours at this time of year. Not mowing the garden all spring and summer. We live in what we think used to be swampland so we get all kinds of flowers, good for the bees and I prefer the look anyway!

Me and the rest of SW England despairing at the thought of the 06Z ever coming true...

Unforecast clear blue skies here. 19.6C and it's not even midday. Just absolutely perfect stunning sunbathing weather SUMMER IS COMING PEOPLE!!

Mostly cloudy here but. Its warmer!! And dry!! Most importantly its pleasant enough to be outside for long periods of time which we haven't had since last Thursday. Baby steps towards what will hopefully be a nice first half of May

Absolutely. March was a lot worse than 2016 though, and April was a fair bit better, and if we end up with something like the 18z then May will be too (though May 2016 was a pretty good month anyway!) Would love a blast of heat into the first weekend of May, not sure when coronation day is but would be nice if it coincided. Some proper warmth before I go on exam leave on the 17th would be amazing.

GFS 18Z is just... Wow!! Glad we're getting a run of GFS ops warmer than the mean, always a good sign. Smallest chance of this verifying but, a lovely warm southeasterly from an Iberian low. Would make the spring so far absolutely worth it, and there's scope for a long lasting spell of high pressure. A stunning run.

A grim day here, but probably the last for a while - the weekend is showing with temps of 17-18C and sunny spells (a little rain too but used to it this spring), before a sunny looking first week of May. 20C definitely possible in many places on BH Monday!! Looking forward to some better weather. April sitting at a 4.5/10 here for me, fairly wet, fairly dull and average temperatures. No bitter cold but lacking in any actual warmth. Some lovely days mixed in with some miserable days. But I've known a lot worse too! (12/13/16) Also a side note, my local weather station with data going back to 2011 now already has 2023 recorded as the wettest spring in that time. Before May has even started. More of a testament to the disastrous March but still grim reading considering this is the year in particular I could've done with a great March and April!

Jan 2017 - dry and sunny, some snow Feb 2019 - snow at the start. Lovely sunny record warmth at the end Mar 2012 - mild and sunny Apr 2011 - recordbreakingly warm May 2020 - sunniest month on record for UK Jun 2018 - best June of my lifetime Jul 2013 - hot sunny for 2-3 weeks then a thundery period towards the end. 2018 and 2022 already used Aug 2022 - main heat spike of the summer surrounded by a lot of warm dry usable days in the mid 20s, lovely spell Sep 2014 - stays warm into the autumn, summer doesn't want to let go. Preferred 2020/2021 but already used Oct 2016 - a good mix of dry, frosty, mild, sunny and wet weather throughout the month - preferred 2011/2018/2022 but already used Nov 2021 - crisp and dry Dec 2015 - we have to get our deluge at some point I guess. Interesting for being so freakishly mild. Would've gone for 2010 if it wasn't out of range