Sun Chaser

What I'm saying is that we never really had a zonal spell in those months bar November and second half of Dec 2022 but that was compensated with 6 weeks of high pressure centred on the UK from mid Jan to late Feb. We had westerly periods but never a never ending train of low pressure like in previous years (May 21, most of Aug-Dec 2020, all of Sep 2019 - Mar 2020, etc)

I went to the mountains around Delphi in mid April last year. on the 12th we saw 20cm of snow that stuck despite clear skies. On the 13th drove 10 miles down to the coast and it was 22 degrees! A few days later the weekend saw mid 20s which was beautiful.

December 2015 CET: 9.6 April 2023 CET so far: 8.4 Mind you that 9.6 is warmer than a lot of recent good Aprils like 2022 and 2017! Warmer than quite a few Mays as well

21st June 2021 was particularly bad. Says a lot about our climate, I'm out of here as soon as I have the means to.

I loved February 2019!! January 2022 and February 2023 also some nice sunny recent winter months. Also found December 2015 quite interesting just for how mild it was. I like snow but I prefer a sunny dry winter just for the mental boost it gives you. I guess the coldies are having their way now but I will always find Christmas 2021 in the models really funny as so much cold was promised then taken away just a few days before. Then we had a lovely mild dry New Year, the mildest on record widespread 15C, sunny where I was as well! Jan 1st 2022 felt very springlike and definitely set the tone for the rest of the year.

GFS gives us setup very reminiscent of May 2022 for the bank holiday weekend locked in then, looks to be warm southwesterlies with cloudy and sunny spells for most, but 18-20c widespread particularly on Friday and Saturday. A weird setup for spring but it's happened two years in a row now lol As for what lies past day 6, not much clarity but I'd say a setup like this is most favoured atm. A fine line between the "rudimentary spanish plume" mentioned earlier or another easterly, depending on the alignment of the low to the W and high to the NE - whether we get an easterly, or a more southerly component is all up in the air right now. Hence the wide spread in 850s around a week from now - some like the control going for 10C uppers while others going for 0C. The mean closer to 10 but concerningly the op is seemingly below the mean for multiple runs in a row, so whatever happens remains to be seen. Either way dry for all: following day 10-11 a possible signal for a trough to cross the country, of course since it'll bring wet weather it seems to be more certain than what comes before it Not looked at ECM/GEM/UKMO yet but I am hearing at least the ECM is going for a more optimistic route than the GFS.

I fear the SSW may have changed something in the atmosphere with long term effects. Before late February, it was easy for us to gain periods of high pressure centred over the UK, often for long periods at a time. But increasingly now it's looking like any high pressure we are getting is transient and the UK is much more of a magnet for the Atlantic than it was from Sep 2021 - Feb 2023. Too early to say for sure but I believe the SSW has changed the state of the atmosphere in which the UK was prone to the Azores high ridging over or a direct HP centred on it. Since basically March 1st it has been impossible to get any kind of favourable setup for warmth, and any warmth we have got has just been due to luck (breaks in the cloud/warming by the sun). Hoping this change is less permanent than I think it may be.

Not a good sign I agree, a few cold outliers we've had now and it does remind me of what we went through this time two weeks ago. But at this point we have no way of knowing what could happen past a week's time, part of the joy (and suffering) of watching the models! After a flick through, half of the members are showing 20c for May 3rd so there's reason to be optimistic. We will have to see what happens

Thought I'd look at the GFS ensembles for fun. P1 is showing an absolute dream in the first week of May just 11 days away, how amazing would it be if this would come true!

Bit far to say it's beginning to look a write off when the models can't seem to agree on anything past 1st May... I am a little concerned about the GFS ops being often being cold outliers but the ensembles could just as well be right. Crazy to discard the next three weeks(!!) when just as many members are showing anomalous warmth as they are a cold easterly.

Getting flashbacks

Nothing says sweaty, insect-ridden misery like... a few weeks of temperatures above 22 degrees? We aren't asking for 5 months of 40 degrees every day

This is what I've been saying!! I don't think we'll ever get a month quite like April 2021 again. Obviously I preferred 2020 but at the time I did really appreciate how we were living through a really unique month. Can't think of any other recent example of such a cold (by CET) but exceptionally sunny month in the March - October period - perhaps a less extreme example would be June 2015?

And very sunny. The sunniest on record for the UK I believe? Felt more like a nice March than a cold April to me

October 2018 was a very interesting month I don't hear discussed much, possibly my favourite in my lifetime (though I did enjoy 2022 and most of 2011) Started dry, then a very warm day on the 10th from what I'm guessing was a heat pump low, followed by an almighty three day deluge with some of the strongest gusts Plymouth has recorded in October. Following this very settled and sunny with some lovely mid-late October warmth, remember sunbathing in a park on a trip to London on the 20th. Then the high realigned and the month ended with a northerly with crystal clear skies, we had deep frost on the 30th, very early in the season. Parts of the UK got snow around the 27th I think. Overall a great mix of weather, far sunnier and drier than average with temps a touch below average due to the very cold end.

England may finally see 20c over the bank holiday weekend, possibly before April is out - I'll go with 20.7c on 30th April. 25c seems impossible to ever achieve in this spring

PLEASE never again

Not Exeter I know but I get my Plymouth stats from this amateur weather station, it's amazing and quite close I guess? Weather Plymouth - Temperature Detail WWW.BEARSBYTHESEA.CO.UK Local weather data for Plymouth Devon UK. Realtime weather and Lightning data updated every 10 seconds. Local 7 day weather forecasts updated 5 times a day using local data and model data. History of... After some searching I found one for Exeter but it only goes back to March 2021 and isn't as clearly laid out, but I hope it helps! University of Exeter, Exeter, UK Weather Conditions EMPSLOCAL.EX.AC.UK Weather conditions for University of Exeter, Exeter, UK as observed by a personal weather station and the weewx weather software

Kent seems to have peaked at about 12C today, but it was very humid this morning!

Don't worry lol, to be fair it was a valid response!! Hoping we all get some sun this weekend and for a great May because we deserve it.

First sentence is very true hahaha... if I had the money I'd be moving straight out of here to somewhere with an actual climate!

Sorry I realise that may have come off as gloating, I know I definitely post way too much from an IMBY perspective and it's a habit I need to stop. I'm sorry to hear you're not feeling too great, I just noticed the forum was on a bit of a downer today. Didn't mean for it to come off that way at all but I realise it did so I apologise. We can only hope for some really warm days to come soon, it would do everyone here a lot of good, me included!

A lot of negativity around, you'd think we were in the middle of an April 2012 repeat or something! Aside from 10th-12th and this little period we're in, it has been pretty pleasant. Lack of 18c+ days is annoying but most very warm periods in spring are transient anyway and only last a few days before another system pushes it away, we usually have to wait until late May for any lasting warmth. So I'm fine with the dry sunny 14-17c days that this April has given us a lot of. I will admit March was horrific but we're out of that now, and we're unlikely to have a barrage of constant low pressure like that for a while. Models in the long term seem to like the idea of heights near the UK, far from being verified but I am optimistic going into May!

I think the majority of the south could see 20c before the month is out, perhaps on the 29th or 30th! Excited to see what the models put out in the next few runs, once the next 4 days have passed we could be looking at quite a nice spell of weather.

Would love a long period of hot sunny weather in July and August, perhaps without the extremes of last year and the chaos that came with that, but weeks on end of 25-32c with some thundery breakdowns once every week or two giving most of our rainfall. I think I'd become the happiest person alive!