Addicks Fan 1981

Bats32 last year's summer was actually pretty average with June and july pretty much cancelling each other out and August was very nondescript. The met office assessment of the summer of last year is it was a hot season alongside 11% more rain and 6% more sunshine. Think the weather at weekends skewed peoples perceptions of summer of last year. Having el niño and an east QBO combination was a clear cut reason why we had the summer we did last year.

Metwatch it does look mainly ridge driven, but the finer details will obviously have to be ironed out before more confidence can be piled in and we have a more coherent path to ridging. We also need to hope that there isn't some sort of a mountain torque event that could also change things, although I can't see any evidence of that and it would be good if something was provided. I'm no expert in that area so MattH would be a more appropriate person to enable me to understand more about stuff like that.

johnholmes have to say John that I won't react to op charts as that isn't my policy of looking at charts personally. Think its better to do a deeper dive if you see what i mean and the teleconnections posters including MattH and Tamara are greatly missed on here as their input is second to none. Regarding the anomolies they did indicate a lot of ridging and that will be where we win or where we lose effectively.

Bats32 GFS is the maverick model as the others are backing a ridge orientated scenario. I wouldn't trust it and would turn my attention to the anomolies instead. Bet you the ensemble mean isn't supporting it. This maybe down to the demise of the PV with our final warming progged of the stratosphere, in actual fact we are meant to be having a negative AO/NAO may according to world climate service as I've mentioned on other posts. I think this may will have a number of things in common with may 2019 to be honest with you.

SunnyG we need to use in my eyes @johnholmesmethodology as he turns his back on rogue op charts and focuses on anomolies instead, i reckon GFS have a glitch this morning as the ensemble mean probably doesn't support the op run.

SunnyG GFS are being a non compliant outlier here as the NOAA 6-10 dayer is ridge orientated. Its time we had @MattHback on here if he isn't too busy and to shed some light on everything. He could also tell us on the GLAAM situation currently as well.

SunnyG whatever you say lol. back to reality and i think that the ECM 0Z from this morning looks plausable.

Mike Poole i tell you this the sooner we have our zonal winds recovery the better, have also noticed further afield that the la niña development has been delayed by the new CFS members. @Gavin Palways said on his videos to look out for the members in blue as they are the modern members if you like. Hope also we do get the WWB as @summer blizzardhas mentioned as that's an important thing in my eyes to look out for.

danm I am siding with BBC on this to be honest. In actual fact since BBC got rid of the met office as provider the forecasts in my books have been better.

Rain All Night I reckon we will have a very interesting may indeed but I do envisage a negative AO/NAO month of may ahead as well down primarily to the final warming of the stratosphere prior coming into the summer months as @WYorksWeather and @Mike Poolehave said. At the same time i do also envisgae a zonal winds recovery, also believe the east QBO has reached its peak and will start trending less in an easterly vein as may and the summer progress. Things to keep our eyes on I'd say.

Lowering my CET guess now to 11.6 thanks to the negative AO/NAO.

WYorksWeather wonder if the ECM clusters support that? I think also the weather in the tropics should be taken note of. i reckon the warm IOD is also causing problems as well with the atmosphere. If I'm honest we need something a bit more neutral across all areas so something more sustained can come off. According to world climate service it'll be a while before we get a positive AO/NAO combination. To be fair also I am starting to find them very credible indeed.

TwisterGirl81 summer of 2007 was very busy for insurance companies because people got flooded out of their houses, many were irked as their houses were literally damaged, mind you it was also you could say a good season to canoe on the street sort of thing.

TwisterGirl81 was summer 2007 one of your horror summers you can remember? It certainly was a notorious season alright, yet the summer overall had average amounts of sunshine and temperatures close to normal too, nevertheless though it was still a washout and coincided with rihanna featuring jay z with umbrella being number one in the charts for ages.

CryoraptorA303 the year of 2007 was actually sunnier than average too albeit to the skin of its teeth. I think the second warmest april and the benign autum of that year counteracted the infamous washout of summer of 2007. I would suggest you watch Gavs Weather Vids on summer 2007, it was probably the joker in the pack summer of the noughties decade and heralded a climate change hiatus until July 2013 came round.

danm thing is in may 2018 the weather sustained itself well into the summer and may I say it was one of my most favourite summers of all time. When the weather got into gear in 2018 it just didn't stop.

baddie I think Augusts of 1993 and 2007 were great if you like dry weather but can't stomach the heat. Cool and sunny months arent exactly a bad thing and at least you feel you dont get shortness of breath when you sleep.

Harry233 think august of 2007 was very similar to 1993 in terms of temperature, sunshine and rainfall. So confusing why summer of 1993 has barely been mentioned, it wasn't brilliantly hot but not exactly a total disaster either.

Metwatch I think summer 1993 was quite similar too although slightly wetter than 1913. If anything i may consider doing a summer 1993 thread, as yes it wasn't brilliantly hot but it wasn't as wet as summer 1992 and felt pleasant when the sun did emerge.

WYorksWeather I agree with @summer blizzardon this to be honest with you. Hovmoller plots are probably a better proxy to look at than ensembles. We need to be careful with what we use and interpret. if we can get some westerly interia going then it shouldn't be too bad at all. I also supported the very sensible post by @Mike Pooleearlier as well and think that clusters should never be dismissed. I feel also that the ECMWF 0Z ensemble mean was encouraging today, not necessarily for heatwaves but shall we say for a bit of a drying trend with a mid Atlantic ridge.

WYorksWeather it all depends now I think on the zonal winds and if a zonal winds recovery is predicted. At the moment our zonal winds are negative, i did see on world climate service x account that next month that we are meant to be having a negative AO/NAO combo. The way i see it is they are probably right.

Methuselah I think she will come online at an appropriate time.

Rain All Night I think @Tamaraneeds to shed some light here for what is going on at this stage, we need to know coherently on the goings on and that.

CryoraptorA303 august 2007 was the coolest at the time since 1993 so both months were very similar, you couldn't make it up. On the other hand the autumn colours came a lot quicker because summer of 2007 was so poor overall.

SunSean my county is in the top five.