Addicks Fan 1981

danm and GFS/ECM are having a battleground at day 10 with evolutions, GFS are going with an easterly whereas on ECM its westerly atlantic driven weather. On a side note I hope we get a linear decline into la niña if it is to happen with it starting a bit later to do our weather ahead a favour.

Rain All Night I think the CFS weeklies are better at the moment than the ECM at long range, @Gavin Phas highlighted it on X. Would love to hear some of his input on here to be honest.

Northwest NI wonder if there's some sort of mountain torque event that is limiting the warm air advection coming into our country? i know that some of the new CFS members have delayed the start of la niña and la niña may not even happen at all, always a good idea to follow the new members rather than just bullet point ways of looking at it. This I also believe will transfer to the atmosphere and I think we are due for it anytime soon, @summer blizzardmaybe able to help us with some of the teleconnections as things stand.

Derecho flipping Henry is all I can say to the warmth.

Scorcher I would imagine that deterministic chart is in a very small cluster though, let's allow @Mike Pooleto shed some light on it and see if I have his back on this.

14.0 to the 1st 2.8c above the 61-90 average 2.3c above the 81-10 average

danm like I said before it'll be to do with whether we have the zonal winds recovery and other different variables that could alter things. It's a real shame that the teleconnections posters who do a deeper dive are not around to shed some light on the goings on. What we need as I have stated clearly is the delay in the development of la niña and some WWB activity on the hovmoller plots. Also wonder if we have had mountain torque activity as well as that can alter things too? I did also notice lately that the MJO forecasts have trended from very active to very quiet.

Sun Chaser it all depends on the jet stream and where that is situated, at the same time signals lead the models too. i would suggest to people who post here to keep our eyes on world climate service on X as well as judah cohen, MetRyan96 and what they post. Also it also depends on the pace which we go into la niña in too and the prevailing winds. We need the teleconnections on our side.

Atmogenic we just haven't had the jet stream in our favour, been blowing right across us rather than skirting to the north and steered towards iceland. Also we are meant to have the final warming of the stratosphere but it appears to be quite sluggish from what I looked at on the JMA stratosphere site. It wouldn't take much for the jet stream to move north and I think they'll be some twists and turns with the model output in the forthcoming weeks.

Today 22 C was achieved at two locations so its the warmest day of the year so far.

Changing my CET guess again now to 13.1, same as 2022.

Relativistic thing is SC 25 is a much stronger solar cycle than what we thought it would be. When we have a weaker solar cycle you have then a warming modification if it makes sense.

WYorksWeather the op runs are definitely an outlier and not backed by the mean at all link below here: Ensemble probabilty weather forecast for London WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COM Probability weather forecasts for UK and overseas locations. These use ensemble model data to help asses confidence levels. Fully updated every 6 hours.

raz.org.rain let's wait until @Rain All Nightcomes online to have the cross model concensus.

Topclassweatherforecaster la niña might not even happen if the blue members on CFS have anything to do with it.

Jack Wales according to Gavs Weather Vids he says you should always look at the blue members and not the dotted line.

summer blizzard what are the current analogues for this summer if say like the niña doesn't come off?

WYorksWeather I've noticed that the niña development maybe delayed or may not even happen at all according to the new CFS members that are in blue and this could do our summer a big favour. It all depends really if this WWB can come off as that to me could be a game changer coming into the summer months.

Man With Beard glad you are back on the forum with your superb insight and second to none contributions. It did look pretty respectable on the ECM ensemble mean charts tonight i have to say especially at day 10 although extremely low confidence of a heatwave.

Daniel* it'll be very interesting how the NOAA anomolies go this evening, it's times like this where the teleconnections posters are needed. Also as I've mentioned about the jet stream is it needs to be in a better position and we need to be on the warmer side of it. I also believe that the east QBO is peaking and will start trending towards neutral values soon, there is definitely easterlies blowing across the troposphere as things stand hence why our upper air isotherms aren't that great. Also think further afield will be a potential niña delay or it may not happen at all according to new CFS members and that may also do our atmosphere a favour.

northwestsnow think we can't trust rogue op charts, we have to buy time to do more of a deep dive if you see what I mean. The jet stream will migrate further north, and it wouldn't take much for it to shift north either. If anything I think we need the jet stream charts to return on here as they are probably of great clout of the goings on.

danm in other words both mean charts are offering a northerly tracking jet with LP steered towards iceland.

damianslaw would it be a possibility if the posts I made then and other posters made were migrated over to the summer thread then please?

Lee Notts what we will probably have is a neutral summer trending towards la niña as the summer progresses. Also the QBO will trend into more of a westerly regime as the summer progresses but i do also reckon the east QBO we have currently has peaked already, it'll probably be neutral QBO by the end of the summer and full on westerly by December.

baddie you confident of that coming off or is it a mere hunch?