IcySpicy

Most likely will burn off, the clouds have broken up a bit and the temperature is around 25-26C now, extremely humid too. It's just a shame that another summer morning was wasted on cloudy and damp conditions. I would even take cooler temps in exchange, but I just want to sit outside in the garden or go to the lake and enjoy some sun. Looking at what Matt H posted in the model thread though.... these brief heat spikes are probably the best it's we're gonna get. Next week is back to the same 18-23 C showery and mostly cloudy weather here.

Our 2 day summer should have arrived by now. It rained last night and the warm front should have passed already, but It's 12:30PM and the cloud cover is stubborn and won't burn off. It should be 30C and sunny by now but in reality it's currently still 22C and cloudy. I know we are doing better than the UK, but even this 2-day summer wonder manages to disappoint in some way.

Yeah, the ECM is not great. Sure, it might be an outlier and looking at OP model outputs for further than 3-4 days ahead is kinda pointlesss.... but most people here are just tired of the constant low pressure and a few days ago models were finally showing a more blocked pattern for N Europe. While not completely settled, it looked better at least. But now one potential solution in the models is to go back to a full blown low pressure dominated pattern after a failed attempt at building a ridge. Seriously, how long can such a pattern last....

December actually was the best month last winter. Seasonal, snowy and cold (but also no silly -25C cold). I was out of the country over Christmas, so I don't know what the exact weather was then, but most of December was nice. New Years Eve turned rainy though and then January was mild. Not warm enough for all of the snow to melt, but everything was covered in wet slush and it was always alternating between snow and rain. Early February was similar but towards the end of the month we got more snow again and then we actually had a cold snap in March. Our coldest day of the season (-26C) was on the 10th of March, which actually felt a bit surreal, because it was so cold at night and early in the morning, but during the day the strong sunshine felt oddly warm compared to the frigid air. Now that I think of it, a few weeks back someone on here mentioned that this summer is similar to last winter, with the most seasonal weather occuring early in the season (December/June) and then going downhill. Now I hope that since we got spell of wintry weather in late Feb/March, then maybe late August/September could get a summery spell.

Tbf Estonia has seen some very mild winter days as well in recent years, I think December 20th 2015 reached 12C. January 2020 had a few 9-10C days, this year I think we also had something around 8-9C on New Years day. But yeah, we will still get snow and cold at some point in the winter.

After the epic fail of predicting a high pressure dominated July just one month ahead, I can't really take these long range charts seriously Although I do find it interesting that this year there are similarities to 2009 and 2009/2010 was a cold and very snowy winter in Estonia. So who knows, maybe it is going to be cold, but I still think a mild winter is more likely with El Nino.

Yikes. I personally can't complain about today, as its been dry and 23C here in Estonia but it's looking truly awful for the UK, I honestly would have thought that 12C is almost impossible in early August, as the there should be enough warmth in the atmosphere and oceans to avoid such low temps. In July 2019 we managed to get one 13C day here in Estonia, but that was with a strong northerly and upper temps around -2C. And we're at a higher latitude too. Northern Europe's summer climate really is something else. I honestly envy continental climates when I look at weather maps/models. Sure, in North America they sometimes have a low come in from the north, that brings one day of storms and suppressed temps (probably still reaching low 20s though) but the that low just gets pushed away across the country or gets swallowed up by all the hot and dry air over the continent. While Europe gets stuck under a trough for 6+ weeks that just keeps itself going. Any attempts at building high pressure are short lived.

True, it's very weird. I live in Estonia, so we are getting hit by this LP. It would be so nice if we could have gotten high pressure to ridge in from NW Russia and develop into a nice Block over Scandinavia but instead we have this LP moving north and pushing the high away. This pattern is so stubborn, making sure a permanent trough stays over N Europe.

Highs around 21-24C don't look bad in the stats, but thats only if you assume that it's dry and mostly or at least partly sunny the whole day. A 22C day with wall to wall sunshine is going to feel warm and summery. But if its a cloudy day ,where it only briefly reaches 22C before a rain front comes in and then the rest of the day is 17C and drizzle...then that's not a great summer day.

Hmm, the sky cleared up a bit this afternoon and I was reminded that August sunshine still feels pretty hot, despite saying earlier that August often already has an autumnal feel to it (which imo, it still does, but it's more obvious in the second half of the month). Really a shame that this summer is so cloudy, we could have had so many 23-26C days if it weren't for the constant cloud cover.

Our hot spell is going to be similar, only 3 days and then back to mostly unsettled. But I agree, better than nothing. Yeah I can see from the model and summer chat thread that you guys have had very poor weekends, truly unfortunate. We have been a bit luckier with weekend weather here, no complete washouts, although it's still been showery on cloudy.

The heights around Greenland have been very stubborn this summer. I also wish that high around Svalbard would be over mainland Scandinavia instead, but oh well. At least it's an improvement over July.

For sure I am happy we don't have 11C and I will gladly take 30C with total cloud cover over that. My moan was moreso about the lack of sun and generally settled conditions to the point where I am not that excited about hot and thundery weather (which I usually love in summer). I hope you guys also get a better spell of weather soon.

Another day of cr*p here as well. At around 7-8 AM it was sunny and I got my hopes up but then it clouded over a few hours later. It's also quite windy. Temperature around 21C, not cold but nothing like high summer either. Starting tomorrow Estonia should see a 3-day hot spell. Sunday might reach 30-33C. But honestly, I don't really care for it anymore. The warmth might get watered down by rain and thunderstorms anyway. I usually enjoy thunderstorms, but I am getting really desperate for some sunshine. After the hot spell it looks very uncertain, some model runs build a Scandi ridge a few days later, but other runs have the high pressure too far north or the ridge too narrow and troughing to our east, so it doesn't look like there will be a sustained settled spell.

While early-mid August is often the warmest part of the year and most of the northern hemisphere gets seasonal lag well into autumn, something about August feels different to me than late June and July. The nights get longer, mornings get more dewy and the sun doesn't start warming everything up so fast. If we get a few nice summery days and then a breakdown, I always wonder "was this the last warmth of the year" because if we get the wrong synoptics there is the risk that the weather can't recover anymore to summery (lets say above 22C ) conditions and autumn takes over. In June and July there is still plenty of summer left and the sun is stronger so the recovery out of poor weather is usually easier (I know... July 2023 really failed us on this, but I hope that was a freak anomaly). It's also rare that we get a summer like last year, where all months including August are good. Usually if June and July are great then August is almost always a downgrade. And if June and July are cr*p, then August might offer some improvement, but as it seems to be going this year, its often too short lived and too late in the season to make up for the previous poor weather. I don't dislike August per se, but it's rare to get an August that is so good that it manages to carry the summer, so it has always been a "meh" month to me.

Yeah, I guess in 22C I can go out in short sleeves and not feel cold if I'm just walking from place to place or running errands. But with the cloud and rain it's still chilly if you stay outdoors for longer periods. 22C and sunny on the other hand would be very pleasant.

Table scraps kind of weather here too. 22-23C, but cloudy and damp. I am happy that it is as warm as it is (it could also be 16C and rainy) but nonetheless I feel myself drifting into autumn mode slowly. Waking up day after day to grey skies really gives me September or very late August vibes. We usually get this kind of weather at the very end of summer after a cold front pushes the last of the summery weather away and it gets replaced with humid Atlantic airmass. But its only August 3rd. It should still be sunny and nice. Even if we do get cooler spells around this time of the year, its usually due to a northerly/northeaterly flow and then it's 17-20C sunny and breezy, but not this dullfest.

Hmm, at around 24-25C while raining it would start to feel hot in a humid and sticky way. It would feel more like the rainy monsoon season in East Asia rather than cold autumnal dross. But I agree, it would still be dull and depressing and not great for outdoor activities. High summer needs some sunshine!

Thanks! I was lucky to have good English teachers in school, but it's mostly thanks to consuming lots of media in English growing up. Estonia is a small nation with a difficult language and a lot of foreign media doesn't get translated. For example, if you go to the cinema here, the movie is going to be in English with Estonian subtitles only. Many games, apps and computer programs don't have Estonian translations. Kids here grow up watching cartoons and YouTube in English because the amount of content in English is much larger than the selection of Estonian stuff.

It is. I also kinda find it baffling how Portland, Seattle and Vancouver can be rainy and dull for 9 months out of 12 but then still get amazing summers. They are prone to poor rainy springs and even June can be cool and rainy there, but from July to September they get amazing weather without fail (or very rarely that there is a poor spell). Why can't Norther Europe have the same pattern, so that the jetstream bugs off and stays north 99% of the time in Jul-Sept

Quite awful day here as well. A bit warmer than in the UK (was around 22C in the morning, but temps might have dropped under the rain) but also rainy and awfully dark... have to turn the lights on indoors. What a waste of summer, the next 10-15 days or so are the last where its still nice and light out and it gets wasted on this crap

Oh, I actually agree with you. May 2023 was better than the last three years (2020-22, which all were unusually poor Mays) for Estonia, but we also suffered from chilly air and night frost. Actually the first week of June was very cold as well, the period from the 2nd to the 5th was especially grim, daytime temps around 14-16C (or even 8-10C near the Norhern coast with windchill) and some places recorded frost at night. Then after that we had a few sunny windy days, around 20C in the sun, but felt more like 14C in the shade. But then it suddenly warmed up around the 12th of June and it stayed very warm (around 25-29C ) until the 30th. This was more than enough to make up for the cold start of the month, but looking at it objectively... it was really only 18-20 days of warm weather. With "a good start" I meant that I wasn't expecting July to crash and burn so bad after such a good warm-up in June. I was hoping for the warmth to at least stay until late July. I can accept August being bad... or the first week of July being bad but then improving gradually towards the end of the month. This kind of front loaded summer really stinks.

No I didn't. In the spring I was a bit worried as both 2021 and 2022 were good summers in Estonia and we usually don't get 3 good summers in a row and we also haven't had a truly poor summer since 2017 (although 2019 and 2020 weren't great either...). Actually the first week of June wasn't great either but then it got very warm and all the models at the time agreed on a warm July and it was looking good. Of course I also worried when the unsettled spell started but I fully expected (well hoped...) for the weather to recover in mid-late July for N Europe. Honestly, I am also shocked how bad the UK has it. I would have expected you guys to at least get a few short lived ridges and plumes, not this endless cool dross.

Sadly this is true and just a reality of living in N Europe, even the best summers are gonna have a dull and cold week or two. And "typical" summers are more like one bad month and two decent ones. But I think this year the problem is: 1) The bad timing of the poor weather ( if early June or late August was poor,most people wouldn't perceive it as so bad) 2) The contrast between the good June and poor July. Most other truly poor summers were already bad in June. It's rare for a summer to start so good and have all the right synoptic patterns and background signals for a hot summer and then crash and burn so badly. It almost feels like one of those airplane crash investigations lol, trying to find all the small factors, which added up to cause this disaster. 3) The lack of warm sunny days between the poor weather. Even in poor summers there usually are breaks of finer weather but this year every single day above 21C has been accompanied by wind and cloud and rain at some point in the day (and actually we haven't had any cooler sunny days either, it's just endless cloudy muck)

I think the ratio is similar here in Estonia. Older folks have told that in the 60s-80s there usually was one (maybe two) good summer per decade and the others would be considered poor by today's standard. I know I might be biased towards warm summers, as I am 25 and grew up in the 2000s and early 2010s, where we had a unusually higher number of good summers. 2006 was the only really good summer in the 00s, but 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007 all had some good months, 2008/2009 were somewhat poor and dull but not the worst of the worst either. Then 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2014 were all good summers here, we got them almost back to back, only 2012 being poor in between. The second half of the 2010s was lacking though, 2015 and 2017 being some of the worst summers in the 21st century, 2016 and 2019 being okay at best. Only 2018 was good. Now in the 2020s: 2020 was a copy of 2019, so mediocre. 2021 overall was good here but August was terrible. 2022 was also good, but the spring of 2022 and September 2022 were some of the coldest and worst I have experienced. 2023 is probably going to end up poor, unless August manages to pull itself together. I mean, looking at the stats, it's obvious 2023 wasn't going to be an amazing summer, as we already had two good ones, but I was hoping for the warmest weather to be in July/August and not in June, as I don't like front loaded summers.