IcySpicy

I am haha. I know it's a little odd for me to be on here as a non Brit, but you guys have the most active weather community. Especially when it comes to being able to share a few moans about bad weather and actually discussing models and forecasts. I do visit Estonian communities too, but it's mostly storm chasers and cold lovers (+ gardeners in the springtime asking if its warm enough to plant stuff) and most don't really care for chasing warm summer weather or discussing why LRF might have gone bust. Yeah, this is also my main fear for all of Northern Europe, that poor cloudy summers will be more common. Climate change will make it slightly warmer on average, but as many have already said, doesn't matter if its 19C and rainy or 21C and rainy, its still poor weather. Hot summers will also probably be hotter and have longer heatwaves, but these will probably only be a few in every decade.

Yeah, the 06Z run is exactly why those heights over Greenland and Svalbard are bad, any Azores ridging under it is gonna be weak and short lived. It starts to turn more troughy again after the 13th.

The media does like to exaggerate, but I think it might just be N Europes unlucky location and the fact that the jetstream likes to get stuck in a way that brings us cool weather in summer. In the winter its the opposite, we haven't had a truly cold winter since 2012 (besides a few colder spells in 2013, 2018 and also 2021 for Estonia.) I know the UK has it even worse with the mildness, but even here in Estonia we get mild winters year after year and cold spells have decreased by a lot. I just wish we could also get warmer summers consistently haha.

This might be a bit of an annoying moan, but this is exactly what frustrates me about the current summer. Everybody talking about global warming getting faster and faster and all long rage models giving high confidence forecasts for a hot summer but it still goes bust. And while we have had a few hot summers in the last 10 years, most were pretty poor for Northern Europe. And at the same time it seems like the rest of the Northern hemisphere hasn't had a below average summer in years. Everytime I open Accuweather its just hot and hot and more record breaking heat in the US and Canada. On twitter I hear about heatwaves in China and Japan that seem to happen every year. Siberia is on fire every year. Don't get me wrong, these conditions are very concerning for the rest of the world, but I find it ridiculous how Northern Europe still manages to get this utter dross summer weather more often than not despite the planet being so warm everywhere else. I don't even want extreme heatwaves here, but would very happy if we stopped getting this below average dross.

Well we did have a better spell of weather on the 6-7th and the 12-17h of July, so it might have been similar in Latvia. But I agree about the beach weather, the main problem with this July was the lack of days above 22-23C. I need at least 27C (or bare minimum 25C if its calm and sunny) to really enjoy swimming or going near the coast. Even in other poor Julys we usually manage a few 27-28C days, this year we only had one in July. And the other few 23-25C days were mostly cloudy and windy, so it didn't feel as warm. We didn't get any shockingly cold (below 17-18C) days, but the lack of truly warm days was frustrating.

July here in Estonia ended up having a mean temp of 16,6 which is 1,2C below the 1990-2020 average and 0,8C below the 1980-2010 average. Also 130% rainfall. Sunshine stats weren't that bad surprisingly, but I think thats due to the fact that we didn't have many washout days that were cloudy from dusk to dawn, but the it still felt very dull because on many days it was cloudy from around 12:00 to 18:00, during the warmest part of the day. So yeah, another poor July on the list, despite many people saying its a normal and average and "waay better than 30C heat". We have had so many poor Julys since 2015 that I have started to feel kind of bitter about the month.

Agree with some of the thoughts above. I don't really like the ECM this morning, it's an improvement for the UK, but those gigantic highs around Greenland and Svalbard are not good. They cause a northerly flow into Europe and in the worst case a new trough will form beneath those highs. GFS this morning is better imo, it tries to connect the Azores high with a Scandi high, which is a more typical good summer setup.

July has been very similar here in Estonia to that example of London high temps. Not too bad on paper, but very underwhelming in reality. For example today, the high was around 23C in the afternoon but we only had a few hours of hazy sunshine. The morning was cloudy and cool until around 1PM, then 2-3 hours of sun, then it clouded over again at 4PM and stayed cloudy until 7PM. Cleared up again but also got cold. Yesterday was also warm on paper (24C), but it was nice only until 3PM, then got cloudy and rained in the evening. I think we only had two days this month (the 15th and 16th) where it was sunny and warm from morning to evening. I have never seen a July like this, where we fail to get sunny weather for more than 2 days (tbf mostly it was just half a day here and there).

Here in Estonia we do get snow, but our winters are also gloomy and extremely dark (on December 20th the sun sets at 15:20....). Clear -20 days are becoming rare due to climate change, a lot of the time it is around -5 to +5C, cloudy and windy. Freezing rain and wet snow slush is also common. These days I do appreciate clear and frosty days, it's less depressing. Yeah, I have heard that. Also that N Europe is warming faster than the world average and that Scandinavia is also getting hotter and drier...not denying it, but it still doesn't change the fact that N Europe still gets many dud summers. For example in the last 10 years: 2015, 2017, 2020, 2021 (for UK, this one was quite hot in Scandinavia and Estonia), 2023. 2016 and 2019 were better but not amazing either. 2013, 2014 (mostly July), 2018, 2022 were good summers. So around every 4 years we get a good summer and the rest are mostly just okay and some pretty bad. Would love see that number reversed, 3 good summers in a row and then maybe one dud in between.

I said a few posts back that for about 90% of the world population hot summers are normal. Northern Europe really is the exception. Even Canada, Maine, Seattle, which are meme'd for being cold and gloomy climates with endless winters (or rain in Seattle's case) get 10 times better summers than the UK or Scandinavia.

I totally understand, you guys do deserve an improvement. I am also thinking this, as long as we have a trough anywhere over N Europe its gonna be difficult to get sustained settled weather, the jetstream needs to go far far north and stay there.

Ehh, I would prefer a nice high that ridges from the UK over to Scandinavia over this weird narrow trough sandwiched between two highs kind of setup. It's an improvement for the UK (although might still be quite northerly and cool), but still poor for Scandinavia and the whole Baltic Sea region. Hopefully the pattern evolves into something that's good for all of Northern Europe.

Same. My climate has guaranteed winters, but summers are a gamble. I am not a cold lover, so for me personally snowy winters don't make up for the lack of good summers. When its gloomy in summer I dread the cold and dark winter more. 2018 was amazing here as well. A cold but sunny February/March and the above average temperatures and sunshine from April throughout October.

But thats exacly the issue, Scandinavia/Baltics (and honestly even the southern parts of the UK) should generally do okay in summer and get plenty of fine weather, but there are no guarantees. There are plenty of poor years, like this year, and also 2012, 2015, 2017, 2020 within the last decade which were not that great for Northern Europe and had cool weather in high summer. The warmth is just not reliable enough. I don't expect extreme heat every year, but just 23-27C and mostly sunny for a few weeks in high summer, but we can't get that reliably.

It's true that our climate is quite good for snow and cold lovers. Although the darkness in winter is no joke. December sunsets are around 3:30 PM. And its very gloomy from October to February, just endless low level cloud unless we get a decent Scandi high. I think there are better snow climates, such as the mountain regions in central Europe, Canada/the Northern US, Hokkaido . Oh thats interesting about your ancestry. Yeah, I think we have a decent climate if you are looking for variety and seasonality. And tbf its probably as good as it gets for the latitude. I just wish summers were slightly warmer and more reliable. I guess Northern Europe just got unlucky this year. I do worry though as climate change is causing these stuck patterns to become more frequent. A week or two of cold weather in high summer I can deal with, but it's sad to see all of July go to waste. Sure, we might get stuck on the warm side of the jet too, but Northern Europe will always be prone to troughing and its not great if these troughs are geting more stubborn.

I sometimes seriously daydream about living somewhere where warm summers are guaranteed. Being able to plan anything without having to worry about it being too cold. Actually, for about 90-95% of the human population, hot summers are a given, a total no-brainer. It really only is Northern Europe (UK+Ireland,Benelux,Scandinavia,Baltics,Iceland) and some coastal locations in Alaska/Canada (and the far far south of NZ/Chile/Argentina for the southern hemisphere) that have to put up with this cr*p "summer". Some other places like Siberia, Canada, Northern US are cold for 8-9 months of the year but still get reliable warm summers. We really are a special minority lol.

12Z GFS does look pretty good around the 10th of August, bringing good weather to the UK and also to Scandinavia/Baltics. Sadly the high starts pulling back to the west, bringing a more NE flow, but at this point anything is better than this endless Scandi trough.

Started raining here as well and it looks dark and gloomy outside. It was a pretty warm day, but still shows that July has been poor, as we can't even manage to have a whole day of warmth and sunshine. On estonian social media/weather communities its been the same thing as you guys have heard, people trying to gaslight and saying "oh its not been so bad, this is a typical Baltic summer, you can't expect 30C for weeks on end, it is still warmer than in 19XX, be grateful that our nature is green...etc etc". While in reality we haven't reached 30C this July, most days it's 18-22C with rain and cloud, planning outdoor activities is a struggle, not warm enough to swim in the lakes or sit outside after 7PM. I don't expect 30+C for weeks on end, but just a few solid mid-twenties days sprinkled here and there so we can enjoy regular summer activities.

I do admit that our forecast for early August looks better than the UK. Then again, while I know it wont make up for a poor July and early August, I envy that you guys can still get proper hot weather in late August or early September and have mild temperatures even in October. Here in Estonia it usually starts cooling down mid to late August (with a few exceptions, last year's August was hot all the way until the end of the month and in 2018 the first week of September was also very summery), when the jetstream gets more active and those arctic lows start reaching us here at 59N. September is usually full autumn already and in mid/late October we usually get frost and the first snowfall of the season. But who knows... this year the jetstream has been messed up all summer, so maybe we will also get some record breaking warmth in late autumn.

Over here in my country today has been the first summery feeling day since the 17th. Temps got to 24-25C, although sadly the sky started clouding over around 2-3PM and we might get some rain later, so still not that amazing for late July. Next week's forecast looks warm temperature wise, around 23-26C during the day and 15-18C at night, but with lots of rain and cloud due to low pressure. I suppose it might feel muggy and quite warm with those temps, but imo its still not great summer weather without sunshine. We are also running out of time for hot summer weather, after around the 10th-15th of August the risk of northerly cold blasts increases over here.

We have exactly the same issue over here. Yesterday was a calm day and the air felt warm, but the sky was completely covered by cirrustratus and altocumulus clouds, so the temperature only got to 21-22C. Today was the opposite, mostly sunny besides a shower at 5pm, but the air was cooler with a noticeable breeze, so again the temperature maxed out at 21-22C. If we had yesterday's calm and today's sunshine we could have gotten to 25-26C. Its "useable weather" for sure, but not great for July, as you start getting cold in the evening and even during the day its a bit too cold to sit outside in short sleeves with no sun.

I'd say for Europe as a whole, if you go from west to east it would be around: 45-46N (France) - 50 N (Germany/Czechia) - 53-55N (continental Russia). I have family that lives in Germany around 48-49N, and I think they have very solid summers compared to what I get here at 58-59N. There they might get a week or two of cooler weather, but usually temps are mid to high twenties there, 30C+ not uncommon either.

Yeah, I heard about the horrible spring you had this year. I know that feeling too, as we had a run of cold springs from 2020-2022. 2020 was particularily bad, while Western Europe had a nice sunny spring, which probably helped people's mood during those horrible times, we had 7C and cold rain during May. I remember being locked up in my house waiting for it to warm up so I could go for a walk or sit on the balcony, it truly felt like spring/summer would never come. This year we had a decent April and May, although in the first week of May we had a serious cold snap, it was around 5C during the day and -4C at night, which did some serious damage to people's gardens. Luckily it warmed up after that.

Long time lurker here (I mostly read the model thread, trying to learn about the evolution of weather patterns, teleconnections and such, but I enjoy reading the moans on here too!) and not even sure I should post on here, as I don't even live in the UK. But quite a few people have mentioned the weather of Scandinavia and the Baltic States recently, so I thought I will give my input. Honestly, I feel like we are in the same boat with you guys. July has been poor here as well (after also having a good June) and summer 2023 has pretty much gone down the drain. Maybe Lithuania is doing a bit better, but Estonia, Latvia and Finland (not to mention Sweden and Norway look even worse) are having the same rainy, windy, dull and cloudy weather. Apart from one warmer blip around the 14th-17th of July, temperatures have been around 19-21C most days. Maybe we are doing slighly better than the UK, as we have not had any total washout days, where it rains 24/7, but it's still poor for high summer. The average high temperature for my city is 23C but most days have been 3-4C below that and we struggle to hit anything above 23C, which is unusual, even in other poor July's its usually more like 2-3 weeks of very cool weather, followed by a week of warmer (at least 24-25C) weather. I have never seen such a stagnant pattern as this year. First week of August looks poor as well, we will be on the warm side of the trough with southerly winds and decent upper air temps, but the rain and cloud will keep temperatures suppressed. So yeah, I totally feel you guys. It's frustrating to hear all those stories about heatwaves and it being the hottest July on record, while we in Northern Europe, the place which could use sunshine and warmth the most, are having to endure this dross. It's also extra disappointing, as summer started off strong and all the long range forecasts were going for a dry and sunny summer for UK/Scandinavia/the Baltics.