[Northwest Weather Discussion]

50 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Not as bad as 1954. The worst summer of the 20th century followed by an autumn with rainfall totals only surpassed  by autumn 2000's.

Horrific.   

Aye, going back a bit !.  A bit to young to remember 1954 but do remember a few inclement summers on the farm down in Cheshire during the mid- late 50s apart from the wonderful  long days summer of 1959. I believe its still raining this morning in parts and down in my old county of Sussex. The prospects of some frosts towards the end of the week will I hope help dry things up a bit . Could be a lot of ice in the fields.

C

[Northwest Weather Discussion]

41 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Shocking day. 12.8mm 

Was it forecast to be this bad?

November rainfall total must be mounting up in the Northwest. Looks like you lot have had a terrible 5 months of mostly sunless and soaking weather.   Bet it seems along time since the settled dry spell in the early summer. My farmer friend tells me the meadows are flooded widely along the Wharfedale and Airedale rivers.

C

[Daily weather observations - November 13th to November 19th]

Horrid Sunday morning in the village. Temp 4c, light rain and thawing wind.

C

[Weather for Nordic countries]

Frozen Swedes this morning. Temps below -15c through much of Central and Northern Sweden. Even Stockholm down to -6c. Even for Swedes this has been an impressive cold November for the most part.

C

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

22 hours ago, carinthian said:

Well there we have it . 24 hours on and none the wiser. Yep , big a difference this morning between ECM and GFS models. The latter robust in sending the  polar trough well south into Europe and opening the flood gates for a direct hit from the North. ECM cuts this off fairly quickly with a flat zonal flow.  UKMO chart below sort of in between but importantly still shows a diving jet from NW to SE  ( chart below ) . I have a feeling it may take a second attempt to introduce a more direct polar flow into The British Isles followed by a more robust build of pressure poleward. So doubt remains but should be good viewing watching this all evolve. If I were a betting man, I would be tempted to sit on the fence and watch where UKMO lands !

C

OK, still sitting on the fence. I will stick with UKMO on this one  at the moment . Robust Northerly jet in places across the British Isles with a kind of Omega Block development but not perfect (as yet ). The extended shows some weakness against this with some form of low development south of Greenland . What will that eventually deliver?  GFS  still consistent showing a clear cut Northerly flow by the end of the week. ECM now coming on board with a extended cold flow across Northwest Europe with possibility of Atlantic Low cutting into the cold air across the British Isles with the prospect of a snow event increasing. So all in all a great week for model watching and hope for cold lovers. Currently this morning all showing some agreement out to 120t. Thereafter ?

C

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Hi, sorry, I can’t find that chart on Meteociel, I think UKMO has the most limited range of charts of all the models, just 500hPa heights and temps at 500hPa and 850hPa.

Link:

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Météociel propose le modèle UKMO jusqu'à 168h. Cartes de prévision des précipitations, du vent, des températures

 

OK THANKS. It will come through a bit later on the Wetterzentrale site .

 C

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO T168:

In the GFS camp on this one, or at least edging that way.

@Mike Poole For some reason I cannot access UKMO  T168  over hereat the moment. Can you post the 300mb flow for T168 ?

Cheers,

 C

[Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2023/24]

Some nice pictures sent this of this mornings snowfall from one of my favourite spots, Hubertusalm on the Shuttleberg above Flachauwinkl.

C

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

On 17/11/2023 at 08:39, carinthian said:

Morning all. There remains some excitement in these parts as The American Model continues to deliver a Northerly jet into the Alps towards the months end. This combination of some depth in cold aloft and plenty of moisture in the lower layers  would bring lots of snowfall to the Northern Alps , similar to the early winter set up in 2020  that dumped a lot of snow as shown in the picture from the Tyrol taken in early Dec of that year.  However, The European model differs this morning and shows only limited cold intrusions into NW Europe /British Isles out to day 10. So doubt remains with the flipping flopping going on with the Euro/ American models. The colder scenario still keeps turning up in the runs but with no consistency. What I do like so far is mild gets watered down as opposed to the cold ( especially for the British Isles) . Could that be a good omen for you cold lover ?

C

Well there we have it . 24 hours on and none the wiser. Yep , big a difference this morning between ECM and GFS models. The latter robust in sending the  polar trough well south into Europe and opening the flood gates for a direct hit from the North. ECM cuts this off fairly quickly with a flat zonal flow.  UKMO chart below sort of in between but importantly still shows a diving jet from NW to SE  ( chart below ) . I have a feeling it may take a second attempt to introduce a more direct polar flow into The British Isles followed by a more robust build of pressure poleward. So doubt remains but should be good viewing watching this all evolve. If I were a betting man, I would be tempted to sit on the fence and watch where UKMO lands !

C

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

22 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning, we have a advanced forecast for a cold snowy weekend Nov 25/26 th over here in the Eastern Alps . Based on that prediction we have some certainty in planning for our opening weekend on that date . What can go wrong ? With-in a 3 day forecast we use the Central European Super Computer outputs , fine mesh results  especially good at predicting advanced local snowfall amounts with remarkable accuracy. The Multi- Global model has the UK down for a cold outbreak that same weekend, especially the NE of Britain. So I assume a Arctic incursion for a couple of days. Transient in nature looking at the models out to that time span through the British Isles, but its a start.

C

Morning all. There remains some excitement in these parts as The American Model continues to deliver a Northerly jet into the Alps towards the months end. This combination of some depth in cold aloft and plenty of moisture in the lower layers  would bring lots of snowfall to the Northern Alps , similar to the early winter set up in 2020  that dumped a lot of snow as shown in the picture from the Tyrol taken in early Dec of that year.  However, The European model differs this morning and shows only limited cold intrusions into NW Europe /British Isles out to day 10. So doubt remains with the flipping flopping going on with the Euro/ American models. The colder scenario still keeps turning up in the runs but with no consistency. What I do like so far is mild gets watered down as opposed to the cold ( especially for the British Isles) . Could that be a good omen for you cold lover ?

C

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Morning, we have a advanced forecast for a cold snowy weekend Nov 25/26 th over here in the Eastern Alps . Based on that prediction we have some certainty in planning for our opening weekend on that date . What can go wrong ? With-in a 3 day forecast we use the Central European Super Computer outputs , fine mesh results  especially good at predicting advanced local snowfall amounts with remarkable accuracy. The Multi- Global model has the UK down for a cold outbreak that same weekend, especially the NE of Britain. So I assume a Arctic incursion for a couple of days. Transient in nature looking at the models out to that time span through the British Isles, but its a start.

C

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Looks like the models are starting to a show a gentle squeeze on the milder interludes as the darker days draw nearer. Nice to see this in reverse for a change !

C

[ALL THINGS AUSTRIA]

Some more pictures taken in the village this morning. Autumn to winter.

C

[Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2023/24]

Couple of picture. First one is Avoriaz from yesterday and the second one this morning outside the hut snow clearing in Zauchensee.

C

[ALL THINGS AUSTRIA]

Just for you @Hotspur62 Clearing a pathway this morning outside the hut in Zauchensee. Sparkling morning. Love it .

C

[ALL THINGS AUSTRIA]

Picture this morning from the village. A few more cm of overnight snowfall. Temp just below freezing and cold enough for snow making machine to operate. -3c on the berg. Beautiful  sunny crisp stat to the day.

C

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

5 minutes ago, Arch Stanton said:

Unless the near continent gets properly cold then any wintry weather over the SE is usually short-lived. Its good to see Scandanavia cold & very snowy so early on, I'm just praying for a big, immovable Scandi high this winter.

Late Autumn / Early Winter cold across The British Isles normally establishes from the north rather than the continent. A big immovable Scandinavian High ? Its a long time since one of those sent prolonged cold into the UK. Yes, I prey for one as well. Good for you but not so for the Eastern Alps !

C

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

5 minutes ago, Chasbrown said:

Carinthian, looking forward to your snowy pictures this season. Thanks. 

Hi,  we have snow already and more expected later in the week. I will post pictures in the Austrian Thread when we get the next top up. See you from Gatwick. I lived in Charlwood when I worked at LGW back in the 80s !

C

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

On 06/11/2023 at 08:16, carinthian said:

 Morning all, looks like a fairly cold end to the week over The British Isles. Both GFS/ECM runs out to 10 days keep the jet on a fairly southerly track ( chart below) for the most part. This would indicate temps no more than average for most of this period or possibly rather cold at times. Longer term out to 15 days , GFS  hints at a even more southerly jet into Euroland. If that was to happen, UKMO will be in a increasingly colder scenario.

C

Evening all. The Polar Jet Stream out to this weekend continues  to show a more southerly track than normal with the British Isles on the colder side. Several models have shown developments of  slider low in the vicinity of Southern Britain to move towards the Alps during Sunday as indicated on the chart below. Beyond that the models still ebbing and flowing with a continuation of the prolonged unsettled spell against some form of build in high pressure being more influential to the forecast for Mid - month.  I have a feeling that a rather colder scenario getting established by then. This is mostly based on a continuation of the more southerly tracking jet shown by the models.

C

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

23 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all . According to latest ECM run , looks like a frosty start to Remembrance Sunday. Next weekend the European trough  starts to fills out with a rise of pressure across Scandinavia. The Low out in NW Atlantic attempting to push through Atlantic air against a blocking pattern developing out east.

C

 Morning all, looks like a fairly cold end to the week over The British Isles. Both GFS/ECM runs out to 10 days keep the jet on a fairly southerly track ( chart below) for the most part. This would indicate temps no more than average for most of this period or possibly rather cold at times. Longer term out to 15 days , GFS  hints at a even more southerly jet into Euroland. If that was to happen, UKMO will be in a increasingly colder scenario.

C

[Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2023/24]

Rare Polar light image caught on web-cam  last night over Hohe Tauren National Park.  Piste work on the Fanningberg early this morning above the clouds.

C

[ALL THINGS AUSTRIA]

Rare Polar light image caught on web cam last night over Hohe Tauren National Park.

C

[Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2023/24]

The Piston Boys out in force this morning. Plenty of fresh snow to work on above 1500m level. Temperatures for the week expected to remain close to freezing level at 1500m.

C

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Morning all . According to latest ECM run , looks like a frosty start to Remembrance Sunday. Next weekend the European trough  starts to fills out with a rise of pressure across Scandinavia. The Low out in NW Atlantic attempting to push through Atlantic air against a blocking pattern developing out east.

C

[Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2023/24]

Here is a live webcam shot of our local ski -mountain from this morning. Another 20cm forecast this evening and more precipitation arrives.

C