[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

14 hours ago, carinthian said:

Definitely, a upgrade in the models so far this evening with cold getting in the shorter term. Maybe now latching onto a quicker evolution to cold ❄.

 C

 

Morning all. Looks like the UKMO chart below brings in the colder air southwestwards across The British Isles on Saturday quite a bit quicker than shown this time yesterday. Thinking more upgrades to come from todays later outputs?  Longer term, nice looking Mid- winter charts on offer. However,  for the time being think we need to concentrate on keeping the high north for the next 144 hours or so and then hopefully see a prolonged cold spell develop. Snow charts from GFS shown this morning ( 50cm on Dartmoor) that far out , nay impossible to verify but looks exciting.

Looking good though for cold winter fans. You deserve a lucky break !

C

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Currently quite a bit of snow falling out over the North Sea between Norway and Scotland as the colder air from the East gets tantalisingly close to Scotland. Unfortunately, the models at the moment hold in situ for a couple of more days ( as highlighted in the above post ). Maybe a correction in this evenings runs ?

C

Definitely, a upgrade in the models so far this evening with cold getting in the shorter term. Maybe now latching onto a quicker evolution to cold ❄.

 C

 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

19 minutes ago, snowray said:

Hi carinthian

Could that be the Boxing day storm of 1927 by any chance, where there were reports of 15 foot snow drifts?

There was nothing that extreme on boxing day 1918.

Regards

snowray

Yes, I think the date I saw may have been wrong. I was just thinking the A25 would have been a lot quieter than now ! However, looking at that picture they seemed to have made a good job of keeping it clear. No crappy salt !

C

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

6 hours ago, carinthian said:

The UKMO fax has that nuisance Low close to the North of Scotland and delays the cold from the east for 24 hours. However, should  move away on Saturday and possibly bring a little snow to the E/SE  as colder air digs in on its transfer.

C

Currently quite a bit of snow falling out over the North Sea between Norway and Scotland as the colder air from the East gets tantalisingly close to Scotland. Unfortunately, the models at the moment hold in situ for a couple of more days ( as highlighted in the above post ). Maybe a correction in this evenings runs ?

C

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

55 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

The continual bickering, squabbling and oneupmanship in this thread is frankly becoming intolerable and needs to stop. I've had to remove many totally unnecessary posts this morning and deal with the reports submitted by other members equally fed up. Can people please be more considerate to their fellow members who want to log-in and head to the Model thread to catch up on the latest output and to read serious discussions about our weather prospects.

Thank you.

Wise words Malcolm. Its been very draining cluttered reading experience this morning.

C

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Heres one for a bit of nostalgia for you Surrey surroundings. This picture apparently was taken after the great Boxing Day Storm of 1918 on the A25 west of Godstone. I used to live close to Nutfield during my Gatwick Days and do remember some snowy days during the 1980s but never seen anything like shown on that picture though !

C

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

The UKMO fax has that nuisance Low close to the North of Scotland and delays the cold from the east for 24 hours. However, should  move away on Saturday and possibly bring a little snow to the E/SE  as colder air digs in on its transfer.

C

[Weather for Nordic countries]

Today one place up in the far North of Sweden recorded its lowest January temp  since 1918 of -43c. It is also the coldest January national recording since 1999 when -49c was registered.

C

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

20 hours ago, carinthian said:

Last one from me before a early flight back tomorrow morning from Arlanda Airport . Currently -8c in Stockholm with snow flurries. Frigid air now making progress across The Baltic from Finland where temps presently down to -36c in the interior. I just wonder what effect that will have eventually across the British Isles when you lot eventually tap into the NEly next weekend ? Thinking of upgrades in the models for potential cold ❄. 

 Good night.

C

Evening all , back in the land of schnitzel and schnapps. Left Stockholm early this morning -8c with full snow cover , arrived SZG this afternoon dull, drizzly and mild at 7c. My few days jollies started in a swampy Skipton  , where I believe it still . The latest UKMO still holds sway to a wintry picture. The extended does not show the high to sink. Must be good for you guys to see some frosts to help dry things up after incessant days of rain and dullness. Between the UK high and the Italian Low , the squeeze will bring a extensive NEly and  the first real taste of winter to much of Germany and France ( a real shock for them ) with severe wind chill and local blizzards.  Always the possibilty in this situation that the SEof England could tap into some of that flow. Just needs slight  adjustments to the high or the Low orientations. Overall a good picture. Would not take a lot to upgrade cold/ snow potential.

C

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

3 hours ago, carinthian said:

Yes , I think its a good run. Certainly from a drier prospective . I return to Austria tomorrow and the prospects of a large Italian low circulation to form next weekend is already exciting winter cold fans after such a mild start to the season for many. It is expected to last for quite a few days with a extensive colder flow along its Northern flank  , so the high formation over the British Isles unlikely to sink further and could easily relocate to Scandinavia or retrogress  with a new high cell formation. Saturday may have a surprise in store for snow starved SE of England.

Last one from me before a early flight back tomorrow morning from Arlanda Airport . Currently -8c in Stockholm with snow flurries. Frigid air now making progress across The Baltic from Finland where temps presently down to -36c in the interior. I just wonder what effect that will have eventually across the British Isles when you lot eventually tap into the NEly next weekend ? Thinking of upgrades in the models for potential cold ❄. 

 Good night.

C

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

34 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Actually in all fairness the ukmo is not a bad run...at 168 we are not a million miles away from a Scandi high.and you can see them really cold uppers over Europe are marching westward to the uk.

Yes , I think its a good run. Certainly from a drier prospective . I return to Austria tomorrow and the prospects of a large Italian low circulation to form next weekend is already exciting winter cold fans after such a mild start to the season for many. It is expected to last for quite a few days with a extensive colder flow along its Northern flank  , so the high formation over the British Isles unlikely to sink further and could easily relocate to Scandinavia or retrogress  with a new high cell formation. Saturday may have a surprise in store for snow starved SE of England.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Morning all, UKMO charts continue to show the route to cold. There own input chart below highlights the advance of cold as early as Friday into the NE. I think they must be now fairly confident that a Northeasterly becomes established more widely next weekend. So for many becoming drier and much colder by then.

C

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Evening all from Stockholm. Currently -5c but -10c expected at the mid-night hour. Apparently, the tradition over here is to go out on the balcony and toast your neighbours with a glass of champers in one hand and wave a sparkler in the other. Me , being a bit of a mardy will probably stay indoors in the warmth with the comfort of a nice glass of malt . Miserable sod you think ! Anyway back to the latest UKMO run that shows a bit of a ramp for coldies . Will it deliver ?  I am going for yes. Very cold air over Northern Russia currently making headway across The Baltic then some progress into The British Isles next weekend. Its an immovable force this time ! Thats my New Years wish for you lot. Rock on UKMO !

I wish you all a Happy New Year.

 Cheers

C

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

16 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all from a rather chilly dark Stockholm with a mild current temp of -2c !  The UKMO run continues to show much of The British Isles tapping into some of that cold Scandi- sourced air mass next weekend . Oh its a slow painful progress for you guys. I just hope the ICON run delivers that promise of more prolonged cold later in the week. The main difference between these runs and the current American model is the strength of the Greenland jet with The GFS  cutting off the colder air flow more quickly as the high pressure sinks . See where ECM run leads us ?

C

Yes, think most on here like the ECM run this morning. Hopefully, a much drier prospect by next weekend with some frosts and ice to help dry up soggy Blighty and even the prospect of a bit of snow and ☀ would be most welcome. Even much of Euroland would be oh so joyful at the prospect of some cold to relieve such a prolonged mild spell , especially in France where some of the ski resorts have closed due to rain and mild temps.

C

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

9 hours ago, carinthian said:

The current talk over in Sweden is whether the -40c super cold  values or lower will occur later next week. Quite a few models including the  latest UKMO chart below ( 2m temps ) shows this mark will be close . Regarding the British Isles , UKMO has some of this air mass creeping to its shores in the latter part of its run . Potential cold comes to mind ! 

C

Morning all from a rather chilly dark Stockholm with a mild current temp of -2c !  The UKMO run continues to show much of The British Isles tapping into some of that cold Scandi- sourced air mass next weekend . Oh its a slow painful progress for you guys. I just hope the ICON run delivers that promise of more prolonged cold later in the week. The main difference between these runs and the current American model is the strength of the Greenland jet with The GFS  cutting off the colder air flow more quickly as the high pressure sinks . See where ECM run leads us ?

C

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

The current talk over in Sweden is whether the -40c super cold  values or lower will occur later next week. Quite a few models including the  latest UKMO chart below ( 2m temps ) shows this mark will be close . Regarding the British Isles , UKMO has some of this air mass creeping to its shores in the latter part of its run . Potential cold comes to mind ! 

C

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Morning all. Fly out to Stockholm today for New Year. My daughter informs me that Swedish Met have given advanced warning of severe cold later next week especially in Central Northern Sweden arnd are fairly confident that is going to occur. Only there for a few days so may not experience that sort of chill around -23c ! then back home to the relative warmth of an Austrian winter ( 19c ) near Vienna just before Christmas ! Its all ways going to be hard and frustrating back in the UK to tap into some of that cold pool to the Northeast. So far this winter , it is Northern Scotland that gets a temporary feed. What do the models offer this morning ? A ray of hope again but always seems the UK is on the outside looking in as so to speak . Think  we need to see more aggressive signals to pressure those lows further south. Slow evolution to major change shown again on this mornings outputs. Lots of rain unwanted rainfall totals for you guys but sometimes the change to cold ❄ could be rapid ! Lets hope so for much of soggy British Isles and crazy mild Europe ( apart from Scand-land of course ).

Happy New Year to all .

C

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

59 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Autumn 2023 was around average believe it or not for most parts of the region for sunshine. July was very dull and August was average to dull, so the nett effect is that July-December is going to be duller than average. 

I sure there will be zero sunshine today ! Pouring down again in Skipton. Two more days of this then off to Stockholm to get my snow fix . The models showing New Year starting as the old one ends , WET,wet wet in the Northwest and continuation of the winter cold in Sweden. Surley the Weather Gods will give you good folk some rest bite from this awfulness soon !

C

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

The second half of 2023 has been a washout despite of the early September heatwave and the late November/December cold snap. 

We have still go the rest of this month (Wednesday's potential rainfall to be added in) but at the moment the last 6 months up to now has been 135% of the July-December (1991-2020) rainfall average.

 

That is quite amazing stat. Looking at the fields and rivers on my current visit I am not surprised.  Shock, horror , no clouds on view at the moment !  I am just wondering what the what sunshine hours are in comparison? I would expect well below normal for the same period ?  Off to Stockholm on 29th , where I am told they are in still in a deep freeze after one its coldest December for a number of years.

C

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

15 hours ago, carinthian said:

I think today ranks as one of the most miserable days ever weather wise. Low cloud, persistent thick drizzle that now has turned to heavy rain. Hardly any day light and although mild temps , the wind makes it feel thoroughly damp and cold. Time to shut the curtains and shut it all alway with a nice scotch on the rocks. Hope tomorrow gives some break from the mud and gloom ?

C

I thought yesterday was bad but today is even worse with lashings of warm rain with rivers of water everywhere. Over here for another 4 nights and no sign of a let up. If its any consolation  much the same across lowland Euroland apart from Scandi-land. Think bookies safe with Christmas Day snow bets for Manchester well and truly washed away. Thank god for the great pubs in this part of the world !

 C

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

I think today ranks as one of the most miserable days ever weather wise. Low cloud, persistent thick drizzle that now has turned to heavy rain. Hardly any day light and although mild temps , the wind makes it feel thoroughly damp and cold. Time to shut the curtains and shut it all alway with a nice scotch on the rocks. Hope tomorrow gives some break from the mud and gloom ?

C

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Christmas Eve back home !

[SACRA]

 Christmas Eve on The Fanningberg. Find my car ?

C

 

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

27 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Another unforgettable winter - 1962/3 - is remembered tonight in a repeat of the Winterwatch 1963 programme. BBC4 at 7pm, and well worth a watch, even if you've seen it before. 

 I remember it well as a young kid on the farm in Cheshire. Never to be forgotten. Once in a century winter !

C

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Morning all from a rather damp and breezy Skipton. Had a few pints of Tim Taylors Landlord last evening at The Devonshire pub in Grassington village . Very wecome. Skipton and Grassington very nice , Lights on display but no snow ! So to get my snow fix , posted a couple below. First one is on my local mountain which is currently snowbound this morning. The other is a throw back to 1947 from somewhere is the Yorkshire Dales ( really part of NW England ) ! Perhaps someone will know this village/town? Really increadible amount of snow that February from all accounts .

C