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carinthian

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

     After a long journey today , safely arrived in Skipton. Windy and mild here at 10c. Thoroughly miserable. Just seen the latest model runs , not good as the promise of a bit of winter has gone from the  UKMO / ECM earlier run.. Any consolidation  , the same mild conditions back home in Austria, but at least it will be dry over there.  Think the prospect of a pint or two of Tim Taylors bitter will cheer me up. !

    C

    • Like 16

    Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    On 18/12/2023 at 15:16, carinthian said:

    Arriving a John Lennon Airport for the first time on Friday for a meet up with Swedish part of the family then on wards to Skipton for Christmas and New Year.   Booked a taxis as dont fancy the road trip on Friday. However, looking forward to a traditional English Christmas. You know , all the best things, Welsh lamb, Steak Pudding and mushy peas, Fish and Chips, Lancashire Cheese, Bakewell Tart and custard, Eccles cake  and of course a visit to the pub ,finally  Chinese takeway.  All of these far better than they have in Austria and Sweden . Good also to stock up with Yorkshire tea to take back home. All i ask for is for no drizzle, mild and muck Northwest weather fest ?

     

    Cheers

     C

    About to leave this this morning on route to The Northwest !

    C

    411784736_866727845244573_6941395200357485389_n.jpg

    411907326_866727788577912_7935676403171014972_n.jpg

    • Like 9
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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    53 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    Morning all. UKMO still ploughs on with its post Christmas Low across the North of England. Chart below indicates a couple of cold nights to follow. -10c at 18z  across the snow fields of the Southern Pennines  ! Um ? Hope their run stays the course as I am soon due over in Skipton for Christmas and then onto Stockholm for New Year ( hate mild and rain ) Not very nice on GFS showing quite a lot of rain and less cold towards the New Year. There can only be one outcome !!

    C

    UKMHDOPUK00_162_5.png

    ECM run follows on and produces chart of the morning !

    C

    ECMOPSC00_192_2.png

    • Like 12

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    On 21/12/2023 at 05:24, carinthian said:

    Morning all. UKMO still have that troublesome Low in their extended model. A slightly slower movement this run but with a more southerly correction. Again , some sort of backing from the more aggressive GEM  this morning. No backing from GFS  at the moment. No sure where ECM will head ? . Quite a large snowfall across the Northern Pennines and Lakes District mountains based on that chart below  with freezing contours as low as 250m in parts of Northern England. Trouble brewing ?

    C

    UKMHDOPUK00_168_2 (1).png

    Morning all. UKMO still ploughs on with its post Christmas Low across the North of England. Chart below indicates a couple of cold nights to follow. -10c at 18z  across the snow fields of the Southern Pennines  ! Um ? Hope their run stays the course as I am soon due over in Skipton for Christmas and then onto Stockholm for New Year ( hate mild and rain ) Not very nice on GFS showing quite a lot of rain and less cold towards the New Year. There can only be one outcome !!

    C

    UKMHDOPUK00_162_5.png

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    11 hours ago, carinthian said:

    Evening all, UKMO still has that low crossing Southern Scotland late Boxing Day. If it stays with this development the split now showing in the jet just after Christmas will likely to send it on a more southerly track nearer the time. Interesting development this one with some cold air in the mix.  Some support showing on GEM run. In the meanwhile curve ball low will soon start to intensify between SE of Iceland as it tracks towards Faroe Islands and onward to Southern Scandinavia.  

    c

    UKMHDOPEU12_156_1.png

    Morning all. UKMO still have that troublesome Low in their extended model. A slightly slower movement this run but with a more southerly correction. Again , some sort of backing from the more aggressive GEM  this morning. No backing from GFS  at the moment. No sure where ECM will head ? . Quite a large snowfall across the Northern Pennines and Lakes District mountains based on that chart below  with freezing contours as low as 250m in parts of Northern England. Trouble brewing ?

    C

    UKMHDOPUK00_168_2 (1).png

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by carinthian

    12 hours ago, carinthian said:

    Morning all, looks like models firming up on Christmas Day. Most of you should have quite a nice seasonal day with a chilly wind and frosty Christmas Night. Any snowfall , probably reserved for The Northern Highlands that may see local blizzards for a time. What about that chart from UKMO end of Boxing Day ? Now that would deliver blizzards to parts of Scotland . Um . As I think trouble is brewing out west as the jet weakens and splits post Christmas 🤶  

    C

     

    UKMHDOPUK00_168_2.png

    Evening all, UKMO still has that low crossing Southern Scotland late Boxing Day. If it stays with this development the split now showing in the jet just after Christmas will likely to send it on a more southerly track nearer the time. Interesting development this one with some cold air in the mix.  Some support showing on GEM run. In the meanwhile curve ball low will soon start to intensify between SE of Iceland as it tracks towards Faroe Islands and onward to Southern Scandinavia.  

    c

    UKMHDOPEU12_156_1.png

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

    It'll be 10c here on Christmas day , nothing really seasonal ,allbeit the normal default temperature in my location during most Christmas days !😃

    I think nearer 8c will be more likely for your part of the Midland and with lower DP combined with a  breeze will probably make it feel more seasonal than many previously mild Christmas Days ! Hopefully a few hours sunshine rather than miserable overcast muck !

    C

    • Like 7
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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by carinthian

    Morning all, looks like models firming up on Christmas Day. Most of you should have quite a nice seasonal day with a chilly wind and frosty Christmas Night. Any snowfall , probably reserved for The Northern Highlands that may see local blizzards for a time. What about that chart from UKMO end of Boxing Day ? Now that would deliver blizzards to parts of Scotland . Um . As I think trouble is brewing out west as the jet weakens and splits post Christmas 🤶  

    C

     

    UKMHDOPUK00_168_2.png

    • Like 11

    Model discussion highlights

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Evening , going by that fax chart ,looks like Met Office will be ramping up a powerful wind potential during Thursday. 82mb difference between Southern Scandinavia and the high to the SW of British Isles centred over the Atlantic.  Models all out of sync at the moment. Not only Christmas period forecast  unpredictable at the moment but the Winter Solstice  forecast even in jeopardy. Think some rapid changes over the next few days.

    20231218.webp


    Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4979677
    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by carinthian

    Evening , going by that fax chart ,looks like Met Office will be ramping up a powerful wind potential during Thursday. 82mb difference between Southern Scandinavia and the high to the SW of British Isles centred over the Atlantic.  Models all out of sync at the moment. Not only Christmas period forecast  unpredictable at the moment but the Winter Solstice  forecast even in jeopardy. Think some rapid changes over the next few days.

    20231218.webp

    • Like 6
    • Insightful 3

    Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    34 minutes ago, cheshireoak said:

    Good luck with that request C! welcome back-I enjoy your alps updates-were you based in Cheshire for a while?, it's been pretty miserable in the marginals today-hoping for some sort of change soon, need to see some sun..

    Thanks. My roots are in Cheshire . I lived on a farm until moving to Sussex with work. My main home is in Salzburgerland but visit my off springs who live in Vancouver and Stockholm and of course back to Skipton a few times .

    15 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

    So are you visiting the Dog and Trumpet? 

    Hi , not heard of that one . Will be visiting the Bull at Broughton and The Wholly Sheep Pub in Skipton for a few scoops of Timmy Taylors !

    C

    • Like 7

    Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Arriving a John Lennon Airport for the first time on Friday for a meet up with Swedish part of the family then on wards to Skipton for Christmas and New Year.   Booked a taxis as dont fancy the road trip on Friday. However, looking forward to a traditional English Christmas. You know , all the best things, Welsh lamb, Steak Pudding and mushy peas, Fish and Chips, Lancashire Cheese, Bakewell Tart and custard, Eccles cake  and of course a visit to the pub ,finally  Chinese takeway.  All of these far better than they have in Austria and Sweden . Good also to stock up with Yorkshire tea to take back home. All i ask for is for no drizzle, mild and muck Northwest weather fest ?

     

    Cheers

     C

    • Like 9

    SACRA

    in Snow Chat

    Posted

    On 14/12/2023 at 13:53, *Stormforce~beka* said:

    With the lack of snow we not get in this country this thread is as good as dead forever me thinks

    Well this picture might cheer you up. Tromso shopping centre in Norway. Note how they treat their snow with some love and respect. No crappy salt grit to flush it away. Back in Britain the streets are laden with the stuff at the first sign of snowflakes  ( if you get any ) Preserve I say and NO TO SALT !

    c

    409753118_340285658635848_4172353296920558342_n.jpg

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    After yet more deliberations the jury is still unable to reach a verdict !

    Sums up the Christmas week forecast !

    The models do seem to be making a drama of the upstream pattern highlighted by the big changes in the UKMO.

    At the moment the day itself looks to be on the cold side but snow wise too early to say although Scotland and northern areas look to have the best chance .

    What happens into Boxing Day , varied options on the menu . 

    The UKMO day 7 for example is trying to disrupt some energy se wards . You can see that circled red . A complication is the shortwave circled black near Iceland .

    IMG_0708.thumb.PNG.bfeb70caa33f326db88f3c5202b7330d.PNG

    The ECM coming out now . We await its verdict !

    Day 6 certainly looks better than the GFS .

    Morning all, I would go with that Nick. Yes," another manic Monday " in the words of the old Bangles song (oh oh ). Pressure on the forecasting agencies to come up with the goods and predict Christmas pickings. Would not like that , thinking egg on their faces ! So from the safety of my arm chair and morning comfort of a strong cup of Yorkshire tea, what do the models show this morning, I would say still a lot of uncertainties but as a safe bet, go for a rather cold Christmas Day for many with possibly a bit of snow up north and be always a bit vague !  The rest of the holiday ? Think we could have problems out west as developments along the Polar front heading into Blighty. Even end of this week not nailed.

    C

    • Like 8

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    59 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    Morning Blighty,  some rapid pressure changes to start in the next 48 hours.  Eastern Alps 1040mb to less than 1000mb within the next 5 days. Some interesting weather developments Wed into Thurs across the British Isles. I still think the low track and intensity is open to change as the models get continue to feed in extra data over the coming  days. So again , one to watch. So all in all best not look further out than 120t ( chart below is from ECM ). That of course still makes Christmas forecast very unpredictable . The run into Christmas does indicate  some type of zonal battle over The British Isles along the polar front with cold Arctic air to North fighting out with the Atlantic mild sectors. Finer details as yet I would think not settled. As ever more runs needed but should be edge of the seat model viewing as the new weeks starts.

    C

    ECMOPEU00_120_1.png

    The fax chart for Thursday shows a massive pressure differential between Southern Scandinavia and The Azores. As a result a powerful jet into The British Isles. So going by that that , I would expect some rapid changes Mi-WEEK in some of the outputs. Forecast for 🤶 pretty hard to nail down as a result of chasing those fronts and pressure changes. Enjoy the roller coaster !

    C

    20231217.webp

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by carinthian

    Morning Blighty,  some rapid pressure changes to start in the next 48 hours.  Eastern Alps 1040mb to less than 1000mb within the next 5 days. Some interesting weather developments Wed into Thurs across the British Isles. I still think the low track and intensity is open to change as the models get continue to feed in extra data over the coming  days. So again , one to watch. So all in all best not look further out than 120t ( chart below is from ECM ). That of course still makes Christmas forecast very unpredictable . The run into Christmas does indicate  some type of zonal battle over The British Isles along the polar front with cold Arctic air to North fighting out with the Atlantic mild sectors. Finer details as yet I would think not settled. As ever more runs needed but should be edge of the seat model viewing as the new weeks starts.

    C

    ECMOPEU00_120_1.png

    • Like 9

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

    Carinthian..

     Your mentions of a 'curveball' low crossing the north east of Scotland and moving down the North Sea and its impacts reminds me of one of the really horrible moments of the 20th century. Particularly to the East Coast and the Dutch coastline.

    Not many people will be aware (or more probably - see it happen) that the event caused the greatest loss of life in the UK of the last century.

    It has become known as the North Sea disaster.

    That of late Jan 1953 when a low formed between Greenland and Iceland and ran SE towards the northern tip of Scotland. It then went for an explosive cyclogenesis (bomb in todays terms ), as it moved SSE down the east coast and in towards Holland.

    Nearly 3000 people were killed in total on both sides of the Channel, with around 300 in the UK. Whilst not wishing to spread alarm, I do feel that we need to watch this situation very carefully over the next 6 days. It could be  a Christmas wrecker. 

    I remember the night/evening well in North Nottinghamshire out delivering groceries with my father and being invited in for drinks, and at one house they had a tele (wow)  and were showing scenes of the conditions on the east coast with nearing 100 mph winds and  with us a raging northerly and occasional snow flurries.

    A few links which may be of interest below -

     Great North Sea flood of 1953 remembered 70 years on - BBC News

     https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-64414388 

    The Met Office will be aware of this situation I hope. 

    I have included the re-analysis for the event so that one can see the similarities.

     https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=30&month=1&hour=0&year=1953&map=7&region=&mode=2&type=ncep

    PS Perhaps the Iberian high made the situation even worse by squeezing the pressure gradient.

    In fact there were a lot of similarities world wide with the main vortex transferred over to Siberia. 

    MIA

    Thanks for that in depth post.

    C

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, carinthian said:

    Morning all, UKMO run this morning produces a good example of a " curveball low " as I highlighted a couple of days ago ( above post )  Winds could be dangerous with this type of development , especially over The Southern North Sea. Still of course a bit early to be sure of its intensity and track as shown by ECM run. Whether it allows the cold to spread further south towards the end of next week cannot yet really be determined but now the potential is increasingly being shown. The "day after tomorrow " runs ( Monday ) with the weekend data  added, will I dare say, cast some more light of this development and get some sort of consensus from the main models for a Christmas 🤶 forecast, hopefully ! Enjoy your weekend.

    C

    UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

    Hi again, just a bit of an update from latest ICON run.  Just look at the power of that jet crashing into British Isles at 120t. Think you can expect rapid developments along that. Still hard to pin down to what evolves at this stage but looks like some stormy weather on the horizon prior to next weekend.

    ICOOPEU06_120_21.png

    • Like 7
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