[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Good Afternoon to all back in blightly. Just nearly choked on my Apple Strudel after reading GB News FB ,which tells you lot back home to wrap up warm as Britain to be covered in 8 days (NON -STOP)  which they highlight snow cover a foot deep with a 400 mile long wall and 32 cm to fall over Scotland on 28th February. I am not sure who feeds or writes this nonsense but you have to laugh at it. Anyway for a bit of fun I have attached the latest GFS run shown for months end. Of course I hope GB News analysis is spot on ! Meanwhile back in the land of the living, my daughters picture from Stockholm this morning still shows snow in the city . Its been on the ground for  well over 2 months now there. Their forecasters say March is going to follow in the same vain. Colder than normal. For much of this winter the models have continued to show cold entrenched to the NE  but with little appetite to spread South and West. Maybe months end ?

C

[ALL THINGS AUSTRIA]

 dubmuffin Hi , yes certainly. Rest of Feb looking not so good . March is the best month by a mile and a bit quieter on the slopes. Surely, March will be colder than this Feb in the Eastern Alps !

C

 PS. Have you booked ?

C

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

 sundog Its the same over most Continental Europe as well. A mild fest in the extreme this Feb so far in Austria. Possibly heading for the warmest Feb ever. Gut wrenching charts continue for lovers of cold winter weather. So sad. Seems the longer term drivers have failed to deliver ( so far ) but hey who wants cold in March and April . I bet your bottom dollar it will snow on April Fools Day ! Think I need a pint and put my slush boots on . Drip .. Drip..

C

 

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

Morning all. Yes, its been hard going this winter. Even as I speak its raining at 1450m. Our Central European Forecasting Agency have been frustrated about how the longer range signals have failed to deliver any meaningful cold to much of Europe so far. Has been an easy forecast for them for the past 6 weeks ( just relentless Sub - Tropical Air flows ) feed around the persistent high ridging from the SW. This appears to be one of the reasons why it has been curtains for any real cold air to last across much of Europe ( apart from Northern Scotland and Nordic Countries ). Currently in many parts of Austria there is no snow lying at below 1000m. I think most high level resorts are still relying on the heavy snowfall base from early in the season but even here the freezing levels are struggling at 2000m. We need snow soon or winter season will be busted. Again, the longer term models this morning provide a bit of hope to rescue winter. Another false dawn ?

C

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Here are some pictures of the high route between Skipton and Colne following Thursday snow event. My farmer friend who farms above Grassington still reports plenty of snow left today around 1000 feet.

C

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all. The GFS latter part of its latest run produces some weird and wonderful charts to end the last 3rd of this month. For example the jet profile chart below has the Mid -latidude jet heading towards the equator ! Meanwhile nearer to home the Mid-week fax chart shows a potential battle to develop across The British Isles as the Arctic air heads towards Scotland again and Sub Tropical behind warm front heads towards Southern England. Think it could end up an interesting week for you lot with some developments to the Northwest to watch.  More interesting than over here where winter is heading towards a zero ranking at the moment. 

 C

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 DavidS Yes, frustrating David. The UKMO chart below does show some frontal activity widely across the Alps this coming weekend. So perhaps some welcome snowfall, especially above 1000m is possible. However, further down the coming week a return to those crazy warm SWly back on the agenda for a time. Hopefully , ECM comes to the rescue !

C

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all. Not all doom and gloom on this mornings runs . A cold polar burst into The British Isles on Monday could provide some snow, especially at elevation and temporary at lower levels. Later in the week a warm front moves in again. However, cold air lurking not far from the North of Scotland for much of the week. Obviously, mild outcome for most of Europe ( apart from the Nordic countries ) has been the winner for much of this winter. Maybe the coin could flip in favour for cold for once as shown in the latest ECM run.

Currently, worryingly so unseasonably warm in the Alps. Defo need to see cold ❄ on the horizon soon.

Rock on UK ! Expecting some surprises in the models over the weekend !

 C

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all. UKMO charts for tomorrow shows a bit of resistance against the milder incursion. Will be a cold day across the North with temp struggling to get above freezing , say north of the Humber.Could be a fair bit of snow, especially above 200m. Looking further a head , GFS op seems to be on warm crusade presently but generally against its own mean runs .. Of course could be on the money ? The longer term trends seem to be a rise in pressure to the east.

 C

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Ali1977 Quite possible. I think snow could lie for a time Birmingham -Peterborough on Thursday morning before the Arctic air is replaced. However, with the Northern Limit shown to be a bit further south could indicate doubt in the battle zone perimeters.

C

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Oh the vagrancies of the GFS op. Still showing the warm side of the mean values.  Looks well off target. However, not as warm as over here , 21.3C recorded near Graz yesterday , beat the previous record by a massive 3.7c ! Now as promised earlier have some latest results  from the Super HD 4x4  snow model with specifications  for the British Isles.  Looking at the parameter 0-25cm snow depth with location at Sea level for 12noon on Thursday. Aprox Birmingham- Peterborough  -Galway- Dublin with northward extend to South Cumbria and Northern Ireland border country. Values at sea level 1-2cm in south of zone and 2-5 cm  further north. Heaviest depths of 25 cm  in Southern Pennines/ Peak Distric, North Wales , especially above 200m and higher parts of Eire to the west of Dublin.   This prognosis only goes to 48 hours , so cannot provide results where snow turns to rain. However, I think these results could indicate a limited on the Northwards extent.?

C

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all from another clear frost free morning +5c at 0600t.  Thinking about how all the models have performed this week , these words come to mind " Oh what a tangle web we weave " ! All this week the GFS  op runs have blown up the approaching low into the British Isles and have been warm side of the mean. Now the lastest run backed by the  mean starts to sink the low into Europe by the end of the weekend. This was earlier the trend shown on UKMO model , which over the past 24 hours has now moved the low north. You cannot make this up ! I think it is quite possible we could start to see a quicker transition into an Easterly for your latitude ( oh , not again , thinking leading up the garden path ) but I now expect to see this low start to slowly sink in the coming runs as the upper pattern alignment is more favourably for a cold outcome acrossthe British Isles.  The Super HD 4x4  snow model results will be available soon and I will let you get a update for The British Isles when I have the see the feed provided. In the meanwhile a bit of sun bathing on the agenda today over here .

C

[Model discussion highlights]

Good morning from a fast snow melting Alps. Yes, freezing level 2500m ! Oh , this mornings models , any the wiser ? Definitely a change taking place this week  but exact details not yet fully determined. GFS/and the French model blow up the low over Ireland Thurs/ Fri , so this would delay any cold. UKMO/ ICON sinking the low to form a European trough which would allow cold to dominate much quicker. ECM sort of in between but looks more in line with the German/ UK model at this instant. Looking at the fax input for Thursday, I would think at this stage, rain for the south with snow in the mix further north. If the low deepens further , possibly the  precipitation could advance further north. However, if the UKMO model proves to be correct , there will be a big up tick for snow potential be be further south.

Could be a big week coming up to see if the winter can get a proper grip across The British Isles. Meanwhile, Central European stays on the warm side for a bit longer.

C

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5030043

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The latest ECM run (06T ) has the snow zone across North Midlands and North Wales o Friday  with some accumulations especially above 200m. The front likely to break up over the weekend as the lowest pressure transfers into France and produce a NEly flow for a time across The British Isles. 

C

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Good morning from a fast snow melting Alps. Yes, freezing level 2500m ! Oh , this mornings models , any the wiser ? Definitely a change taking place this week  but exact details not yet fully determined. GFS/and the French model blow up the low over Ireland Thurs/ Fri , so this would delay any cold. UKMO/ ICON sinking the low to form a European trough which would allow cold to dominate much quicker. ECM sort of in between but looks more in line with the German/ UK model at this instant. Looking at the fax input for Thursday, I would think at this stage, rain for the south with snow in the mix further north. If the low deepens further , possibly the  precipitation could advance further north. However, if the UKMO model proves to be correct , there will be a big up tick for snow potential be be further south.

Could be a big week coming up to see if the winter can get a proper grip across The British Isles. Meanwhile, Central European stays on the warm side for a bit longer.

C

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all from a very mild Austrian Alps this morning. Still looks like a tricky forecast for The British Isles later this week. The various models differ with the position of the low as it comes up again the installed cold air up North.  GFS has it further north compared to latest ECM which has significantly changed with a correct southwards. So base your forecast on that ! However, I think the most encouraging chart offered this morning is from extended UKMO which shows a NWly jet digging well south. This will enforce a European trough with the British Isles on the cold side with possibly a good snow set up. Good news for the rest of the month if that turns out to develop. I think UKMO fax charts may be the one to watch over the coming days if your Met Guys have a correction southwards in mind. Snow prediction charts will be unreliable the moment, however the out parameters results show lots of potential this morning.

C

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 nick sussex A real tricky forecast for the UK to predict from Mid-week on wards for the British Isles based on the current model outputs. The problem lies along the boundary of the developing cold up north and the stubborn mild flow over much of Europe. Whether the cold takes over for most really depends on the interaction of the low shown to move into the British Isles and that is still not decided looking at this mornings model runs. Over here the mildest weekend of the winter so far imminently due. The forecasting agency snow model outer parameters has a big up turn in snowfall from 14th Feb over Central Europe shown on latest results. However, it has to be noted a big spike up take for snow across Northern England on 8th onwards and yes later in Southern England around 10th with a possible heavy snowfall on the cards. However, as always difficult location for you guys but potentially could be on the cusp of some welcome snowfall across Blighty if the cold air advects without hindrance? Good Luck yet again. This time ...?

C

[Model banter and emotions]

Clear blue skies this morning over The Austrian Alps. Going by the chart below , that will be the way for much of this coming week but getting warmer as the week progresses. Slow changes for all. Looks like 7 days before any cold arrives back in The British Isles ( if ever it does ). Current model watching like being compared to the Chinese water drip punishment for us coldies ! However, on a more optimistic note the team of experts over inform me their longer term chart indicate much colder conditions to head down from the North for most in 10 days with an uptick in snow potential for the British Isles.The long wait continues !

C

[Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2023/24]

  @Penguin16 Back in the 70s when I first skied in Alpbach (800m ) in the Tirol you could almost guarantee snow down in the village. Not so any more. Many of those lovely traditional resorts are no longer available on a package deal because of the unreliable snow amounts. Resorts at 1000m and above now more certain of snow but they are expensive. For example a 3 star hotel in Zauchensee at 1450m near where I live would cost 2000 euro for a week on the piste with snow certain. Lower down the valley, many resort hotels empty due to lack of snow but available for half the price.  I have to say, more snow has fallen above 1500m during the past 10 years compared to previous decades. Probably one of the quirks of nature caused by global warming. However, my wife who comes from these parts has seen a big visible retreat of the glaciers.

C

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Evening all. Gave the model viewing a 5 day break as I felt deflated after viewing last weeks runs .  The models, especially GFS spot on to flush away the European cold at great speed. Sad that the hint of an Easterly failed again. Just trying to analyse the winter so far, not surprised to see a record January low recorded in Northern Sweden of -47c. Sad to see 27c recorded today in Eastern Spain. Sad to see a new January high recorded yesterday in West Tirol. Sad to see Northern Britain battered by recent run of storms. Where is it all heading ? Well looking at the latest models a prolonged  continuation of mild conditions to prevail for most . Wish I never looked !  Spoke to the team over here and they offer little prospect of proper cold or snowfall for the next 10 days. However, their longer term charts from second week of Feb show a change back to winter across much of Europe , especially the British Isles( so that must indicate some sort of Northerly incursion) Scandni-land keeps good winter charts for most of the period. Not a good 10 days prospect for the ski-ing resorts with plenty of warm sunshine in the offering.

All very trying at the moment this model watching for us many lovers of cold synoptics to emerge. Just like the words from a famous Kinks song " Tired of waiting...."

[Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2023/24]

  @Big Dave Sad to say. Old traditional resorts at around 800m will go out of business. Cancellations coming in now thick and fast. No new snowfall for 10 days . Just hope Mid- Feb delivers some proper cold.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

  @SunnyG Benidorm today . 23c.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Incredible Mid -Winter temps forecast tomorrow across Spain.

 C

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Warmest January 24th for 70 years in Austria !

C

[Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2023/24]

  @Chasbrown I think by weekend the wind will have dropped and night temps will fall below freezing  but day temp still on the mild side. Should be plenty of sunshine on offer over the Alps into next week. Therafter should see a return to colder conditions during early February and hopefully some fresh snowfall for the peak season.

C