carinthian

January 24

Horrid conditions in the Austrian Alps today. Hair drier in full force. 11C in village today, 8c at 2000m , 16c in the valley. Drip drip . Locally , towards Vienna reports of 19c.

c

January 21

Looking at the extended models this morning has left me in a bit of a state of shock.Shocked at the speed the potential Easterly has been dropped . Any chance of the European High to ridge North crushed by The Westerlies in full motion. Unseasonable warmth on the cards for Euro land and the ski -resorts. A dry Spain at this time of year does not bode well for them ( thinking of summer drought ). However, there still remains a window of opportunity at around 96t for some potential build in Scandinavian heights and a push south of the Atlantic trough. I will wait until Thursday to see what the models indicate then before I become more restless to see how this winter pans out for most of the population ( apart from Scandinavians) who so far have hit the jackpot for cold lover !

Keep the faith you Northern Folk.

C

January 19

Grassington this morning. Still plenty of snow cover in the South Dales and cold. Yesterday morning saw double digit minus C readings quite widely in that part of the Kingdom/NW. Some ice flows on The River Wharfe my farmer friend informs ! Shame its all to go tomorrow.

C

January 19

38 minutes ago, AO- said:

Good Morning all,

GFS is synoptically great this morning, but not the best as there is hardly any cold captured to bring West. T850s are pretty mild. And probably for England it still is too far east. But again the consistency is just lovely.

Morning the models moving towards a Scandinavian High is place for the months end. All the upper pressure flow projects indicate that. The early building blocks will start next weekend. Regarding depth of cold, predictions of 850mb temp values are not possible at this stage. Getting the right development for an Easterly flow in place is the important aspect and then the cold will follow and possibly deepen once established..

C

January 18

This picture from outside my sons home in Vancouver yesterday morning. The city recorded a low of -16C the previous dday. Did you know that Edmonton International Airport (YEG) has just recorded its longest ever period of temps of less than -45c. Amazing stat.

C

January 18

Looks like some fast moving events for the rest January across The British Isles. Change this weekend from Arctic Flow to Stormy Atlantic few days. Looking at the extended chart below, if memory serves me correct this is a text book upper flow that preludes a Scandinavian High development and Easterly into the British Isles. The change over could be rapid, so hang on to your hats. Obviously a rise in temperatures early next week but sure won't feel mild in Northern Scotland as the colder air will return at times after the passage of the predicted left exit deep low formations along an active frontal boundary to develop across the North Atlantic Sunday into Tues.

C

January 15

11 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

I wouldnt mind knowing the answer to this.

Travelling to Morzine and Avoriaz next week and would like to keep an eye on the forecast for snow and cold

@Blessed Weather knows these parts of the Alps well. Sure he will be able to give you some sort of indication. However, we all know winter charts can change very quickly. Hope you have a great ski-ing holiday.

C

January 15

Morning all.Interesting winter weather coming up for you guys this week. A bit of everything, frost, ice, snow and sunshine and windy weekend to come. Is it going to be a 100% change to mild sector condition this time next week ? Some variations in the models being now shown . For example the extended UKMO chart below shows jet powering up on a more southerly track with possible intense storm development. Snowfall could remain significant over Northern Scotland. I would think looking at this mornings models , winter is not busted yet. Could be more rapid changes in the outputs over the coming days. Nice for you guys to have a nice winters spell for a few days at least !

C

January 13

7 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

GFS could be overcooking the lows as it is known to do. Without it like on the UKMO it looks a bit more primed with the heights more in the mid-Atlantic and a cold pool still to our east. The UKMO looks primed like it could potentially go cold again. The GFS doesn't allow this because there's too much forcing from the Atlantic which inflates high pressure across Europe. UKMO looks more realistic to me at least.

Thats some dart board low from GFS. Quite a stark difference now emerging between UKMO and GFS at 168t.

c

January 12

10 hours ago, carinthian said:

A strange hobby is weather model watching. Models show some quite significant cold to arrive for most of next week and even before it arrives the longer term view this morning is to have it flushed away yet again. Painful isn't it. In the wise words of Confucius, " Study the past if you would detect the future " Um, I wonder if that applies to the current model watching ! Anyway, the cold will arrive soon and a possibility of snowfall for some with low temperatures widely forecast. We all know 7 days is too long. Get the cold in place and see then how the longer term drivers respond.

PS. Just a little confused with some of the outputs at 168t, they look to develop rather unusual synoptics' in my mind . It might just be me. Enjoy Friday, soon be beer time 1

C

Evening, most intrigued by latest UKMO extended. That chart does not appear to be indicating for a full frontal Atlantic zonal change. Signs already being shown of some disruption to the low out west. The low circulation off Iberian peninsular helping to promote a " cold ridge" of higher pressure in the vicinity of the British Isles by next weekend. In the meanwhile a lot of cold weather for you lot to endure for most of next week with snow potential. Wonder if its going to lead to a longer term block ? Don,t tell GFS . Defo time for a beer. Have a good evening.

C

January 12

Crazy cold in Vancouver, currently -15c in city. -49c recored in Northern BC.

C

January 12

A strange hobby is weather model watching. Models show some quite significant cold to arrive for most of next week and even before it arrives the longer term view this morning is to have it flushed away yet again. Painful isn't it. In the wise words of Confucius, " Study the past if you would detect the future " Um, I wonder if that applies to the current model watching ! Anyway, the cold will arrive soon and a possibility of snowfall for some with low temperatures widely forecast. We all know 7 days is too long. Get the cold in place and see then how the longer term drivers respond.

PS. Just a little confused with some of the outputs at 168t, they look to develop rather unusual synoptics' in my mind . It might just be me. Enjoy Friday, soon be beer time 1

C

January 11

Evening all. UKMO extended has brutal cold in place over Scandinavia and possible ice day over Northern and Central British Isles. Do you think the Met Office forecasters have faith in its own model to give advance warning of a possible severe cold spell on this showing ? Probably not at the moment. However, it is showing some consistency towards a prolonged cold spell, unlike GFS. Snow forecast charts this far out not to be taken at face value. Their own advanced fine mesh model will pick this up with more certainty with-in a 48 hours of any event for location and depth. Great viewing though.

C

January 11

Morning all, again for consistency I look at charts 24 hours on, currently the ones shown by UKMO. The extended below shows Arctic sourced air in place again over Scandinavia and The British Isles into early next week. So confidence is now high for another drop in temperature. Looks like snow potential to increase as disturbances come up against this block of cold air. But where is still very much in doubt. The snow prediction models past 48 hours hardly verify. So the most effective snow predictions are produced by the shorter range fine mesh models. All very tricky to predict especially for an Oceanic climate like the British Isles. Nevertheless, the UKMO will have all the advanced tools available and only with-in a 48 hours time span will they have confidence in issuing snow forecasts ( locations /depth ). At this current time looks like The North of England favourite for a snow event from any disturbances ( hate the phrase shortwaves ) but this still open to changes as mentioned but its going to get cold !

C

January 10

On 07/01/2024 at 07:11, carinthian said:

Morning all from a snowy Salzburgerland , temp now dropping over here after a week or two of mildish weather . For some sort of consistency I have attached the 168t chart from UKMO . Um boys and girls make your forecast based at that chart ? Think inevitably there is going to be a clash or air masses, but where will this zone end up ? How far can the Arctic Front get south or will it be retarded coming up against the rise in pressure over France ? or will there be a middle ground ? Of course it could end up a clean cut sweep from cold to mild or cold wins out ! Fascinatingly , interesting winter charts to unfold. Its going to be a ride this week but for you lot back in blighty enjoy the colder drier spell for much of this working week , Still to far out to see what evolves by next weekend. Meanwhile the establishment of The Italian Low to produce some much need fresh snow to most of the Alps. To prolong any cold spell we all need its circulation to stay in put for much longer than some of the models show this morning. Enjoy your weekend and some may see a flurry or two.

C

Morning all. A bit of an update from my last post above sent on Sunday. Are we any the wiser for next weeks developments ? Meanwhile, we have an important World Cup Giant Slalom race on the local mountain in a couple of days. Cold snowy conditions look to remain before quietly warming up next weekend, So thats good timing. Back to the models and UK prospects. So again for some consistency, the UKMO extended still shows potential battleground but again with no clear cut route to depth in cold. This mornings other models, especially ICON advance the colder air more quickly during Saturday night, that would be the best result to get the colder air in place earlier. The feeling over here from the experts is for that to take place as there is an expectation that the push from the Arctic will be strong enough to advance the front more quickly during this weekend. This should soon show in outputs over the next couple of days and could again change the snow potential forecasts. Just as a bit of information showing on the snow model they use , has an up tick in snow for NW England by this time next week. Read what you want to in that .Happy model viewing, hope its not sending you crazy !

C

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5004449

January 10

On 07/01/2024 at 07:11, carinthian said:

Morning all from a snowy Salzburgerland , temp now dropping over here after a week or two of mildish weather . For some sort of consistency I have attached the 168t chart from UKMO . Um boys and girls make your forecast based at that chart ? Think inevitably there is going to be a clash or air masses, but where will this zone end up ? How far can the Arctic Front get south or will it be retarded coming up against the rise in pressure over France ? or will there be a middle ground ? Of course it could end up a clean cut sweep from cold to mild or cold wins out ! Fascinatingly , interesting winter charts to unfold. Its going to be a ride this week but for you lot back in blighty enjoy the colder drier spell for much of this working week , Still to far out to see what evolves by next weekend. Meanwhile the establishment of The Italian Low to produce some much need fresh snow to most of the Alps. To prolong any cold spell we all need its circulation to stay in put for much longer than some of the models show this morning. Enjoy your weekend and some may see a flurry or two.

C

Morning all. A bit of an update from my last post above sent on Sunday. Are we any the wiser for next weeks developments ? Meanwhile, we have an important World Cup Giant Slalom race on the local mountain in a couple of days. Cold snowy conditions look to remain before quietly warming up next weekend, So thats good timing. Back to the models and UK prospects. So again for some consistency, the UKMO extended still shows potential battleground but again with no clear cut route to depth in cold. This mornings other models, especially ICON advance the colder air more quickly during Saturday night, that would be the best result to get the colder air in place earlier. The feeling over here from the experts is for that to take place as there is an expectation that the push from the Arctic will be strong enough to advance the front more quickly during this weekend. This should soon show in outputs over the next couple of days and could again change the snow potential forecasts. Just as a bit of information showing on the snow model they use , has an up tick in snow for NW England by this time next week. Read what you want to in that .Happy model viewing, hope its not sending you crazy !

C

January 7

5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

But more heights to our south and cold not getting south as much…

Morning all from a snowy Salzburgerland , temp now dropping over here after a week or two of mildish weather . For some sort of consistency I have attached the 168t chart from UKMO . Um boys and girls make your forecast based at that chart ? Think inevitably there is going to be a clash or air masses, but where will this zone end up ? How far can the Arctic Front get south or will it be retarded coming up against the rise in pressure over France ? or will there be a middle ground ? Of course it could end up a clean cut sweep from cold to mild or cold wins out ! Fascinatingly , interesting winter charts to unfold. Its going to be a ride this week but for you lot back in blighty enjoy the colder drier spell for much of this working week , Still to far out to see what evolves by next weekend. Meanwhile the establishment of The Italian Low to produce some much need fresh snow to most of the Alps. To prolong any cold spell we all need its circulation to stay in put for much longer than some of the models show this morning. Enjoy your weekend and some may see a flurry or two.

C

January 6

9 hours ago, carinthian said:

Thanks a nice winter chart that and is only a few hours away ! ( Will there be more upgrades I ask in the shorter term ) , A prolonged cold outlook from the models this morning UKM0/GEM/GFS. Not sure about ECM run this morning, defo throws doubt into the equations but to my eye does not look correct. Anyway , the GEM extented chart ( below ) goes on and shows some amazing cold around Iceland in its extended. Think I have never seen such low values that far south. Whether British Isles taps into that sort of feed is another question but certainly the models continue to show potential for a very cold ❄ Mid -Winter period.

C

Evening all from a cold foggy Altenmarkt. The UKMO/GFS models this evening continue to show advance of a marked Arctic Front to make some headway from next weekend into The British Isles. A second wave shown on GFS chart below and earlier on GEM above has some brutal cold ❄ heading towards Scotland from The Arctic. Possible record cold temp based on that chart especially if snow cover persists but we all know things can get complicated that far out. However, these types of charts are now being shown on a regular basis .

C

January 6

41 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

UKV big upgrade for Monday night

Thanks a nice winter chart that and is only a few hours away ! ( Will there be more upgrades I ask in the shorter term ) , A prolonged cold outlook from the models this morning UKM0/GEM/GFS. Not sure about ECM run this morning, defo throws doubt into the equations but to my eye does not look correct. Anyway , the GEM extented chart ( below ) goes on and shows some amazing cold around Iceland in its extended. Think I have never seen such low values that far south. Whether British Isles taps into that sort of feed is another question but certainly the models continue to show potential for a very cold ❄ Mid -Winter period.

C

January 6

Morning all, another upgrade from UKMO in the shorter term. Tuesday sees the cold pool more extensive on this run for Tues with sub -10c uppers further north across England and Wales.

The extended looks primed for a shot from the NE to develop ?

C

January 5

2 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

This post and the pictures provided from Denmark are such a stark reminder how difficult it is to get snow into the British Isles. I mean Denmark is what 450 miles away by boat and yet the weather we are experiencing couldn't be more different. So if the global teleconnections are delivering blizzards to Denmark Holland et al but not us can they be said to have failed on a global level? I personally think not. They have currently delivered snow to North West Europe, just not these tiny bunch of islands. We need something ultra special whilst they don't.

Yes, its hard work for you guys but that makes its extra special when you do hit the jackpot . We need Doggerland to resurface! Yes , small differences in mileage but big difference in weather. That reminds me of my post Christmas flight from Liverpool John Lennon . Set off in rain and temp of 9c and arrived 1 hour 57 mins later ( record flight time ) in Arlanda Stockholm at -10c in deep snow ! Back to the short term models , at least some cold to tap into for you lot. Could be a lot worse !

C

January 5

3 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all, another upgrade this morning in the shorter term from UKMO. Colder flow sourced from that intense cold pool out east making inroads to SE England during tomorrow. Think further upgrades are possible out to 96t, especially for the south with chance of light snow from any troughs that form in that flow.

C

First signs of convection across Southern North Sea tomorrow afternoon as the deeper cold air gradually pushes across Eastern Areas of The UK from Denmark , where it is currently very cold. Blizzards yesterday caused a lot of roads in Denmark and Southern Sweden to be closed by drifting snow. ( Pictures from Denmark ). Some models now showing snow showers across Kent and East Sussex for a time on Sunday in association with a transient pool of cold air.

C

January 5

20 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

UKMO 0z has sub -10hpa over the far S of England. Last occasion this happened must have been the St Patrick's weekend of 2018?

Morning all, another upgrade this morning in the shorter term from UKMO. Colder flow sourced from that intense cold pool out east making inroads to SE England during tomorrow. Think further upgrades are possible out to 96t, especially for the south with chance of light snow from any troughs that form in that flow.

C

January 4

7 hours ago, carinthian said:

Yes Dennis, my daughters picture this morning waiting for bus to work in Stockholm confirms Scandi-freezer in full force. -12c in city with cold pool in development now over Southern Sweden. She also confirms some ice formation on The Baltic inlets close to city centre ! Exciting prospects, especially for the long wait back in the UK. More upgrades to come , I think.

C

Evening all. latest reports from Sweden show cold pool now developing over Baltic. Upper air models forecast temps at 850mb level as low as -20C and to be more extensive over the next 24hours. No wonder they are having weather related problems with deep snow and blizzards in the South of Sweden and severe cold up north. Sad that pesky Low to the North of Scotland is stopping full on cold advection into the British Isles. However, models show it filling and being absorbed in the build of pressure over the weekend. Late Friday and into Saturday, colder air will start to filter into Eastern England especially with a chance of some light snow possible if the colder air is sufficiently deep enough.

C

January 4

5 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Goodmorning

now the scandinavian freezer opens the door to west europe from this weekend

have fun all with it

more is to come .....

Yes Dennis, my daughters picture this morning waiting for bus to work in Stockholm confirms Scandi-freezer in full force. -12c in city with cold pool in development now over Southern Sweden. She also confirms some ice formation on The Baltic inlets close to city centre ! Exciting prospects, especially for the long wait back in the UK. More upgrades to come , I think.

C

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