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Everything posted by carinthian
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Currently out in Ibiza and it's hot. Locals have never known heat like this at the moment. Sat hiding in the shade and watching the few clouds drifting up from Morocco direction and looks like a bit of dust in the Atmosphere. 37c forecast on the Island tomorrow as the heat dome centres over the SW Med. Crazy heat of which I have never experienced . Night temps dip to about 28c. Another observations how warm the sea is.
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Just seen those current temps in the NW of England , 14 c with a bit of wind and rain. Certainly a bit of a climb down from 2 weeks or so back. 24c any day for me at this time of year. The thought of 14c just sends shivers down my back as I am a bit of a summer softy these days ! C
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Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
carinthian replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just a bit of update and observation. Seems to be an important difference emerging this morning with ECM and GEM placing the low further west by this time next week, compared to UKMO and GFS. Which ever scenario's emerge, there would be a very different feel to the weather. Could turn cool and wet or warmer and drier as shown by ECM/GEM with pressure rising to the south. I am not sure on the eventual behaviour of these slow burner Atlantic Lows. I remember quite a few times quite recently when clear cut polar airmass was being modeled to invade southwards across NW Europe only to be cut off by extended troughing into the Atlantic. Let see. Sitting on the fence on this one ! C -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
carinthian replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Think its going to be interesting model watching this week to see how the North Atlantic Low evolves early next week. Does seems to stay in situ. The question is will it fill or throw a deeper trough across The British Isles ? Both scenarios being shown in the current run of models. Of course the trough could well develop much further west and that could allow return of the heat ? Lets see. C -
Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2022/23
carinthian replied to J10's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Mid -Summers Day in the high Canadian Rockies. Picture was taken at Sunshine Ski Resort in Banff . C -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
carinthian replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Morning all. The current spell of normal early summer temperatures in Austria is soon to be replaced by a surge of very hot air by Wed/Thurs next week with temps reaching 35c with risk of severe heat storms developing in the mountains. Southern Britain also could tap into some of this heat towards the end of next week. Upgrades could come thick and fast for this scenario to develop more widely. However, for many in the British Isles looks like flaming June to continue. My farmer friend today reports 32 days without rainfall on his land north of Skipton in The South Dales. Must be close to some sort of record combined with the amount of sunshine as well. Enjoy you summer weather. C -
Thats amazing for early summer. Looks like the Northwest favourite for hot spot again today. Remarkable spell of weather currently in your area Chester- Carlisle the new heat zone of the British Isles ! My farmer friend up in the South Dales reports no rain for more than 25 days now and has missed the localised down pours further to the west and south . C
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Aye, went back to my old stomping ground in Horsham last week and noticed on the train out from Gatwick the expansion of new building going on in the area. Soon Horsham will be connected to Crawley. Um !! C
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On my yearly trips back to blighty this is one thing I notice more and more of those horrible linear new housing estates popping up on once green fields and woodlands. Just to many folk to cram in ! C
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Nearly a week on. Think, maybe many parts of your region still rain free at the moment ? See the storms pushed across West Cheshire yesterday . Looking at todays reading, could feel warmest day of the year with Manchester heading towards 30c . Also that wind should have now abated somewhat. See what develops this afternoon ? Will be watching carefully out here in Ibiza where the weather I am glad to say has warmed up appreciably over the past few days. Maybe good BQ conditions for you Northwesterners ! C
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Um, just think of those many depressing days of low cloud , constant dampness and winds streaming from the Atlantic, especially when the south was basking in warm continental ☀. I would say enjoy the current super conditions a wee bit long up in your part of the world. The rain will come back sometime but how soon is the question ? UKMO latest looks like only showing sporadic rainfall with the core high in still quite a favourable position for the NW . I suppose warm rain is better than cold rain if it eventually arrives ? C
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Currently 26c out in Ibiza. Feels more sultry. Some big tops appearing out west across from San Antonio Bay towards Benidorm/ Denia on the mainland. Think may see a good light show towards dusk. Looks like NW England soon to regain the English hot spot this afternoon and rightly so. The new Riviera ! Rock on Keswick and Manchester. C