carinthian

What a turbulent chart that is for Western Europe. Not only wind, rain , floods to contend with, possible huge amounts of snowfall for the higher French and Swiss Alps provided by marginal storms in the wake of Ciaran. Certainly a interesting week for avid weather enthusiast. Think now is a matter of sit back and watch the power of nature as it unfolds. C

The low has now formed a nice cyclonic circulation currently south of Newfoundland with central pressure of 997mb. It will continue to track SE with the main jet on its southern flack and forecast to continue to deepen with its centre a to be aprox half way between the Azores and SW Ireland by 06z tomorrow morning. Its in this zone when rapid deepening is expected to occur. Still a very difficult one to predict exact tracking of the low across England into to Thursday . This is crucial to getting it right for forecasting the predicted hurricane force wind zone. Northern France, English Channel or Southern England ? Sure the severity of warnings will soon be decided. Maybe later today. Some big calls from the UKMO and French Forecasting agency to make on this one ! Good luck. C

Sledging down Arundel High Street 2nd December 2010. C

The Low , not yet formed is expected to develop south of Newfoundland over the coming 24hours. I think the models will until then continue to vary the path and the swath of the most powerful winds. This time tomorrow will be the crucial forecast for the storm intensity warnings from Wednesday into Thursday period. C

Picture today from Arundel. C

Latest GFS runs continue to show a bit of promise post 240 hours with the European trough filling out and a build of high pressure over Northern Britain. I hope the theme continues over the coming days. In the meanwhile a turbulent 7 days or so for many including Euroland with lots of rain in the forecast and snow at higher levels over the Western Alps particularly. C

Quite a bit of interest over in Euroland regarding the forthcoming stormy period. Talk of hurricane winds into Bay of Biscay and possibly English Channel. However, the main concern seems to be possible development of a marginal storm formation over the continent on the southern flank of Storm Ciaran as it moves over England. Heavy rainfall amounts for Northern France and Low countries plus possible wind distruption. Swiss weather experts expect some large amounts of snowfall above 2000m falling to 1500m on passage of the main cold front associated with the above developments. Certainly , there will be some intense scrutiny's of the Atlantic the low formation and track by the various weather agencies over the coming hours. Potential to bring widespread disruption to quite a few Western European countries as the week progresses. C

100mph gusts showing on latest ICON run for Thursday morning. Channel Isles and Brittany in the firing line. Secondary low following on producing storm force winds further south in Biscay with Biarritz the target. C

Today sees the opening of the new World Cup Ski-ing 23/24 season held in Solden. Snowfall this week in the Canadian Rockies will bring the opening of the new season next weekend. Picture from a couple of days ago from Mt Norquary ski resort above Banff Town. Maybe time to open a new seasonal thread 23/24 @J10@Blessed Weather? Chhers, C

The promise land ? The GFS produces a chart showing a build in Atlantic heights and hopefully bring an end to this endless run of wetness across NW. Europe. In the meanwhile much of the same for the next 10 days at least. Great ! C

Morning, GFS and ICON models sending the jet well south into mainland Europe this time next week with a turbulent spell of weather forecast over these parts. ECM holding more of a rinse and spin cycle with a less progressive diving jet. Whatever the outcome , the unsettled and generally mild spell for many continues with an outside shot of colder winds into The British Isles as shown on the latest GFS run. C

Yes.the wheels of fortune hardly ever favours The British Isles regarding tapping into Scandinavian Cold. I know the Swedes are getting excited about the current early on set of snow and cold. If it does really bite then the UK has a fair chance of some real winter weather, but the wheel of fortune has to land against great odds ! Keeping fingers crossed. C

Morning, some evidence from the models this morning that NE Britain will tap into some of that early cold air from Scandinavia ( as shown from the UKMO chart at 144t ). The models at this stage indicate the colder wedge will only be limited as another Atlantic low heads towards NW Europe during the fist week of November. However, its worth watching if the cold now getting established over NE Europe can hold and intensify over the coming weeks and maybe possibly start to increase a chance to some cold. Meanwhile much of mainland Europe and here in the Alps well out of reach from any cold. C

Another picture of the Arundel snow taken in Dec 1908. Going by the man with the spade at the top , looks like the snowfall was pretty deep. C

Morning all. A rather depressing full set of model runs this morning with the unsettled spell prolonged to months end. Obviously not good news for rain soaked Britain with more flooding expected by the end of the week. The rinse and spin cycle not exclusive to The British Isles with much of Western Europe getting plenty of wet weather with gusty winds at times. Looks like a fair bit of Scandinavia escaping the worse of the bad weather where colder more seasonal condition prevail. My daughter who lives in Stockholm already reporting frosty nights over there and the Tv weather reports of snow and low temps already well established up north .

Yuk, don't like the look of that chart for next Sunday . Another slow moving storm not really wanted for you guys and more windy conditions across mainland Europe. I just hope the British Isles does not gets stuck in a rinse and spin cycle with Easterlies domination at 60N and Westerlies' 50S with more flooding. Longer term signs the main trough will slowly anchor further east with a bit drier conditions, hopefully. C

One for you snow lovers down south. Back in time, 30th December 1908, location Arundel, West Sussex. Classic snow chart that. C

Found these long back in time images from 30th December 1908. The location is Arundel , West Sussex. Looks like a classic "Beast from the East " for the Southeast. C

Well the new ski-ing season is drawing ever closer. Always get excited about the prospect of snow and a new season. The picture below is enough to wet the appetite ( not the present ) but from a few years back showing the perfect dream run in the Utah Back Country. Yesterday we had a covering of snow in the village but now melting away. Snow still showing on the peaks. The lift teams already starting to test the cannons and check out the lifts. No date yet to when opening starts but Obertauren usually the first in the region when the snow and cold arrives. C

My daughter who lives in Stockholm tells me of reports this morning of quite widespread snowfall in the Jamtland Region with temps close to 0C and -5 c on the summits. The snow cover should show up in the pixel charts tomorrow. She also reports some sleet in the city currently with a temp of 3c and a chilled wind off The Baltic... Brr C

Here is one for you snow starved Southerners. Chichester during the Christmas cold spell of December 2010. Will you see the likes again ? I hope so ! C

Just been looking at the sunshine totalS for your region over the past 2 weeks. Almost non existent . Hello October where has the sun gone ! Must feel a bit depressing with constant rain and cloud cover. Time for an Easterly to lift the gloom ? Due over for a few days in December to visit Manchester Christmas Market on route to Stockholm for Frosty days and sunshine not too much to ask ? Anyway , hope you lot get a bit of a break from the current incessant dullness over the weekend. Not a lot to ask is it ? C

Looking at the obs for the first week of October the rain continues across the NW counties of England. I am just wondering how wet period July-October will turn out to be in comparison ? I am sure you will keep us updated ? All looks depressingly poor period of weather up there over the past few months. More of the same to come ? C

Sort of confirms what my farmer friend near Skipton reports. After a great start to the summer the last 3 months up to present time has gone down hill . He says the fields are sodden due to rain and endless cloudy days with mild days and nights. Complete lack of ☀. C

Following on from the record breaking September in these parts ( see above post ) October continues along the same pattern. Just this afternoon the October record for Austria has been establish in Langenlebarn close to the Rhineland border with a reading of 30.3 C. Just quite remarkable. The heat goes on although a cold front is approaching soon to cool things down for a couple of days but bulds again towards weekend. C