carinthian

Morning all , when ECM produces a powerful jet like that, things can change very rapidly. Still 10 days out till Christmas Day ! So I will best reserve judgement until " The Day after Tomorrow " ,sorry about the pun but there is a heck of a lot data to collect over the weekend and even then The Christmas Forecast will not be nailed . C

Of course 10 days is far out. However, the real point I was making is the potential for powerful winds to develop rather rapidly with-in this type of low formation as previously explained in the earlier post. C

Morning boys and girls, the extended chart from UKMO is of interest .. Yesterday , as highlighted in the above post was the possible formation of a "curve low ". This chart shows its formation and likely to deepen as it heads towards southern Scandinavia . These lows usually have a narrow warm sector on the southern flank and in the boundary zone where the colder rushes in there is a potential for very powerful winds to develop. Think this is definitely one to watch and could be an eventful Thurs into Friday next week. c

Hi Ben, not looking to bad. I know one of my former colleagues (retired weather forecaster ) @johnholmesknows Wengen very well and hopefully he may be able to advice ? C

Polar Low territory ! C

Morning all, some interesting charts this morning. The incoming cold coming shown at various rates with the GEM the most progessive and ECM slowly heading there. I draw your attention to the chart below (GEM op at 168T) . As also shown on the UKMO extended and ECM ,there is a formation of what we used to call a "curveball low " that forms along the top of the Huge Mid - Atlantic High between Southern Greenland and Labrador. It develops where the thermal gradient and pressure gradient is greatest and its this formation that can be rapid as highlighted in the post yesterday by @Nick F. So just another feature to watch with interest over the coming days but from a coldies point of view encouragingly improved charts from all the models this morning. However, for real cold I would like that Scandinavian trough to eventually dig south prior to Christmas and that would up the snow stakes for many in UK/ Euroland. C

If was a betting man, I would put punt on a Manchester white . Only going what I can read into this evening. C

Yes, Nick developments can be rapid along that tight thermal gradient. After a very mild fairly mundane coming weekends weather for many looks like things getting interesting just before Christmas. Our Central European forecasting team seems to think we in the Eastern Alps will remain for the most part on the warmer side of the Polar Front come the Christmas Holidays ( which is not what we really want in resort ) . However, the prospect of some developments across Southern Britain showing in their charts, especially windy across the south of the British Isles. Early days yet, but one to be watched I feel. Whether it brings rain or snow is nay impossible to predict this far out but confidence is fairly high regarding a colder Christmas across much of Northern Britain. In the longer term we need to see The Scandinavian trough and take hold and extent south. Not a lot to ask is it ? C

Just an update about possibles of pre - Christmas wind developments across Southern Britain( re -above post). The latest chart below from GFS shows quite a marked thermal gradient developing. In am just wondering whether any disturbance in that zone is going to cause a forecasting headache ? At the moment, I would say just nay impossible job for a forecaster to predict the Christmas weather in the finer detail but rather looks like Northern Britain should turn colder , but the bigger problem could be for Southern Britain ? I will leave you with that to ponder ! C

Good day TillyS, firstly thank you for your input. Certainly GFS extended charts were first to show the recent colder snap for the British Isles at the end of November and first to hastening its demise compared to the medium outputs shown by UKMO/ECM. So , in my view GFS has led the early winter charts so far ! hence, I think the other are coming on board with the eventual formation of a Scandinavian trough in the making. I expect we will soon see some speedy developments across the North Atlantic as the sqeeze on the baroclinic zone intensifies after this weekend benign weather. C

Yes , we are really cheered over here this morning to see ECM move to the GFS model longer term outputs ( DAY10).. The GFS model has for quite sometime stuck with this scenario with a colder run up towards So it would seem this morning a big plus for the GFS and retains its " pole position " as to coin a phrase ! Our own outputs indicate some big winds around 23/24th Dec across Southern Britain, possible due to another disturbance along the polar front but that is a long way off yet. However, overall a good move this morning towards a colder Christmas spell, especially after this comings weekend exceptional mild spell for many across Northern Britain . Currently , over here in The Eastern Alps, a bit wet and milder over the past few days but should see some sunshine over the weekend with some low temps. C

Yes, I remember this well. I was on duty at LGW and think 60F was reached down there with persistent cloud and drizzle. Think the cloud level almost hit the deck and some British Caledonian flights cancelled. If correct I think the rest of the winter became much colder , especially in Feb 79 ? C

Yes, good post. There is a famous Northern Soul song, " 7 days too long " and we all know this time next week, the models may be showing something completely different for the Christmas Period. You are right about the trend to a pattern change is showing in the longer term models this morning , but nay impossible to nail down the finer details this far out. C

Spot on. Crazy gang 1 C

This picture taken in 1989. Defo not me on that drop. Anyone guess where it was taken ? C

Yes, I remember receiving that DWR chart when I was a young kid which was posted by The Met Office subscription service. It arrived on 23 rd December. 3 days later we were in a deep freeze that lasted 10 weeks. Crazy turn around. I always wondered if todays super models would have picked it up going by that synoptic chart. C

No, but still sending the wife out to work !

Yes Nick, UKMO at 168t does offer some lower temps over the SE . I would think the high is primed to centre over Southern England this time next week . So hopefully some surface cold over Southern England. Oh, then there is the small matter of the lead up to Christmas week. GFS extended trends to a Fairy Tail Christmas in the making, whilst ECM heading for a milder bore fest ! Of course both could be wrong. However, the early winter form winner so far has been GFS to pick out trends to cold or return to mild. Hopefully, its on the mark with its current runs to bring the upper trough down across Scandiland post medium term and let the cold flood south. C

No support for GFS lower European heights during the mid -term from the other models. So its "Billy no mates" on its own.If it pulls this one off , a big bonus over the others ! C

Evening, well there we have it from GFS op and Control. An attempt to bring back the cold to the British Isles as early as 7 days with the aid of a developing European trough. Looks like this model has little support from the others so far. However, GFS was first to show this weeks flushing away of the cold whist ECM/UKMO showed the greater resistance. So who is to say GFS is not going to be leader of the pack in a speedy return to colder scenario. C

Evening all. This was the temperatures outside my daughters home in Stockholm earlier today. One of the coldest December nights on record there. It appears looking at the models for next week the Atlantic lows hit the buffers and undercut against the entrenched cold across Southern and Central Scandinavia. I am just wondering whether this is going to help veer the flow quicker than expected across the UK and return the cold ? Could be some surprising runs over the coming days ! C

Even colder this morning, -25c just Northwest of the city. C

Yes, very dark. My daughter flies out to Cape Town today. +50c difference ! The Swedish cold has been entrenched for nearly a month now. As you say a warm up on the cards but surface temps will be low. C

Current temp outside my daughters home near Stockholm. Frozen Swedes . C

As promised some images from the village today. C