carinthian

Morning all, Looks like the models are increasing the potential for a snow event late Thursday/ Friday across parts of the UK . Certainly the UKM0/ECM have upgraded the cold, However, in these situations the potential snow zones get shifted southwards with time . Think an exciting week ahead. I expect further upgrades over the coming days. As always the predictive pattern of snowfall remains complicated across The British Isles. C

Yep, they have warnings currently in Sweden of intense cold over the coming days. Stockhom had snowfall earlier in the day and current temp -9c in the city. C

Think I would agree. The current UKMO outputs seem to be latching on to a quicker evolution to a colder scenario over the coming 7 days. Looking at the latest Fax chart , even at 72t there is an upgrade with the 528 dam line further west. The North Sea will modify the 850mb values but the 500mb -1000mb values would be low enough for snow ❄ especially a bit inland at 200m . The main source of cold advection into NW Europe will be from Scandinavia where the cold pool is now currently intensifying. I expect upgrades over the coming days , especially for The British Isles. C

Blizzard. -7c in the village and -11.2c on the Berg at 1900m. C

Morning all, a bit of an update. Looks like a renewal of cold air advection following the cold front push SW across The British Isles Monday into Tuesday as shown on the latest UKMO run and fax chart (120t) Thereafter, we have an attempt to push back against the cold in later in the period. A lot to be determined yet for an eventual outcome. Of course some where across the UK positioning could end up with a battle zone where the boundary of the different airmass meet , especially as the cold block continues to intensify to the NE. Maybe that is what our outer parameters snow chart are indicating ( as above post ). Again , nothing clear cut at the moment but as you know that is not unusually for you guys. However, this mornings chart still seem to favour a colder outcome to end the month. C

Evening , just a follow up from my post on Monday ( above ). Certainly been interesting model viewing so far this week. Wonder where it will all evolve in to. Colder scenario now looking fairly certain, but the fine details not nailed as we can clearly see by this evenings runs. The first results of our outer parameter snow charts do show some snow possibly for Northern Ireland and Northwest England /North Wales early next week. Read what you want to in that ! Howerver, model percentage expectancy is low that far out . C

Yes, pure diluted cold on that run by 168t. Removes any thought of build of pressure towards the NE of Europe. However, seems to be batting on its own against all the other models. All adds to the uncertainty across the British Isles for the start of next week. Even so should be frosty for most of the weekend. C

Yep, you often see this phenomena when the land mass is very cold over Scandinavia. Basically its cold air advection heading into the North Sea . The kink in the flow is caused by a rapid contrast in temperature over a short distance and usually associated with a cold front or trough formation in the flow. This on some occasions move across the British Isles from East to West and provide some good convectional snowfalls , particularly to Eastern /Central Britain. C Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99428-model-output-discussion-mid-autumn/?do=findComment&comment=4954944

Yep, you often see this phenomena when the land mass is very cold over Scandinavia. Basically its cold air advection heading into the North Sea . The kink in the flow is caused by a rapid contrast in temperature over a short distance and usually associated with a cold front or trough formation in the flow. This on some occasions move across the British Isles from East to West and provide some good convectional snowfalls , particularly to Eastern /Central Britain. C

Whether the UK taps in to this or not, one things for sure most of Scandinavia well and truly in the freezer by the end of the week. C

Yes, I agree. We over here expect Sundays chart to be similar to latest ICON below with the low pressure over NE Europe to be the dominates feature. The low shown on the latest UKMO seems to far SE. C

Some nice snowy pictures from the heavy snowfall across The Arlberg region earlier in the weekend. C

Morning all. Ok things start to get a bit complicated early next week but nevertheless very interesting. So for the time being I have been sticking with UKMO outputs. Their model continues to show some kind of low development to the south of Greenland in its medium term charts. It looks like a short wave will move into the embedded cold by that time across The British Isles. Whether the cold remains in force or is diluted by Atlantic air remains very much in doubt at this stage. Looking at all 3 big models , a colder spell is likely to prevails for the most part in various forms out for the next 7 to 10 days from early Friday onwards , not just for the British Isles but generally across much of Europe. Firstly, lets get that waving cold front through and cold in place across The British Isles by the end of the working week. There will be enough push looking at the charts below to get into the Alps over the weekend to produce some nice snowfall and much lower temps for the resort opening . Sure will be a interesting weeks model viewing. Hope it dries out for you guys . The waterlogged fields may soon turn into an icy landscape across Blighty by Sunday morning !

Aye, looking good for weekend opening. The cold front should produce some nice snow cover and lower temps. Could be quite an icy landscape across Blighty on Sunday morning. Plenty of water to freeze over going by all accounts. The langlauf Ski Park next to where my daughter lives in Stockholm all so hopes to be in operation this coming weekend. She is excited with that prospect ! C

Aye, going back a bit !. A bit to young to remember 1954 but do remember a few inclement summers on the farm down in Cheshire during the mid- late 50s apart from the wonderful long days summer of 1959. I believe its still raining this morning in parts and down in my old county of Sussex. The prospects of some frosts towards the end of the week will I hope help dry things up a bit . Could be a lot of ice in the fields. C

November rainfall total must be mounting up in the Northwest. Looks like you lot have had a terrible 5 months of mostly sunless and soaking weather. Bet it seems along time since the settled dry spell in the early summer. My farmer friend tells me the meadows are flooded widely along the Wharfedale and Airedale rivers. C

Horrid Sunday morning in the village. Temp 4c, light rain and thawing wind. C

Frozen Swedes this morning. Temps below -15c through much of Central and Northern Sweden. Even Stockholm down to -6c. Even for Swedes this has been an impressive cold November for the most part. C

OK, still sitting on the fence. I will stick with UKMO on this one at the moment . Robust Northerly jet in places across the British Isles with a kind of Omega Block development but not perfect (as yet ). The extended shows some weakness against this with some form of low development south of Greenland . What will that eventually deliver? GFS still consistent showing a clear cut Northerly flow by the end of the week. ECM now coming on board with a extended cold flow across Northwest Europe with possibility of Atlantic Low cutting into the cold air across the British Isles with the prospect of a snow event increasing. So all in all a great week for model watching and hope for cold lovers. Currently this morning all showing some agreement out to 120t. Thereafter ? C

OK THANKS. It will come through a bit later on the Wetterzentrale site . C

@Mike Poole For some reason I cannot access UKMO T168 over hereat the moment. Can you post the 300mb flow for T168 ? Cheers, C

Some nice pictures sent this of this mornings snowfall from one of my favourite spots, Hubertusalm on the Shuttleberg above Flachauwinkl. C

Well there we have it . 24 hours on and none the wiser. Yep , big a difference this morning between ECM and GFS models. The latter robust in sending the polar trough well south into Europe and opening the flood gates for a direct hit from the North. ECM cuts this off fairly quickly with a flat zonal flow. UKMO chart below sort of in between but importantly still shows a diving jet from NW to SE ( chart below ) . I have a feeling it may take a second attempt to introduce a more direct polar flow into The British Isles followed by a more robust build of pressure poleward. So doubt remains but should be good viewing watching this all evolve. If I were a betting man, I would be tempted to sit on the fence and watch where UKMO lands ! C

Morning all. There remains some excitement in these parts as The American Model continues to deliver a Northerly jet into the Alps towards the months end. This combination of some depth in cold aloft and plenty of moisture in the lower layers would bring lots of snowfall to the Northern Alps , similar to the early winter set up in 2020 that dumped a lot of snow as shown in the picture from the Tyrol taken in early Dec of that year. However, The European model differs this morning and shows only limited cold intrusions into NW Europe /British Isles out to day 10. So doubt remains with the flipping flopping going on with the Euro/ American models. The colder scenario still keeps turning up in the runs but with no consistency. What I do like so far is mild gets watered down as opposed to the cold ( especially for the British Isles) . Could that be a good omen for you cold lover ? C

Morning, we have a advanced forecast for a cold snowy weekend Nov 25/26 th over here in the Eastern Alps . Based on that prediction we have some certainty in planning for our opening weekend on that date . What can go wrong ? With-in a 3 day forecast we use the Central European Super Computer outputs , fine mesh results especially good at predicting advanced local snowfall amounts with remarkable accuracy. The Multi- Global model has the UK down for a cold outbreak that same weekend, especially the NE of Britain. So I assume a Arctic incursion for a couple of days. Transient in nature looking at the models out to that time span through the British Isles, but its a start. C