carinthian

Hi AM Good Question ? I am not sure really. Increased emissions of CO2 should only have increased temperatures over the past two decades marginally. Summer levels of ice retention are lower than 1979, however I have noticed that spring ice is lasting longer (first year ice) and Autumn re- freezing is starting later. Winter levels are not far of the so called long term averages. Seasonal cycle corrections have happened before. C

hi PM3, Where do you dig these reports from ? Don't understand a thing said. Lots of scientific reports can be taken with a pinch of salt, whether for or against, But care must be taken to ensure that the change is more that just local one.Inevitably change is brought about oscillations of climate. I fear this report is just anmother wild assumption I have read about for decades. Not convinced Carinth.

Hello Rollo, The North Barent is the best area "as far as the British Isles " is concerned for signs of early cold pool. The persistance of this pool has been noticeable throughout the summer. Ideally, an extention into the Norwegian Basin by Mid -December would be the best scenario . Reanalysis archiv charts for today way back in 1968 is a good example for a prelude to a classic winter cold spell. Someone might be able to bring it up for you ? Carinthian

Hi, Polar winds pushing out of the Angara Basin are now well established in Svalbard this morning after the passage south of the Arctic Front. Forecast of drift sea ice will be close to the Northern reaches by the end of the week. Hopefully, web cams may be able to pick up some of this drift into the in-lets from some of the sites later. Smashing pictures there at the moment. Enjoy , before twilight sets in. Carinthian

Hi P3, Not now.There is just not enough heat around the pole for a late thaw. The freezing process now underway in the North Barent. This cold pool is in the ideal location for any of this winters incisive Arctic attacks to our shores. C

Spot on John. Looking better up there for Monday. Blowing snow and sub-zero Arctic push. Should make for good viewing in the twilight zone. C

hELLO, First snowfall of the season in Longyearbyen Harbour last night. Some nice pictures now on the web-cam. C

Further to the above post , ice forecaster predict that the ice concentration continues to diminish in the West Canadian Sectors,particuarly open up in the Beaufort Sea .The prolonged warm spell is expected to continue until Wednesday. Some noticeable cold is expected is expected on Monday to be pushed into the North Barent/ Svalbard. See JH post and fax chart. Carinthian

Quite a big one observed by coastal aerial patrol on the 13th at 66N in the Denmark Strait ( North Banks NW sector of coastal waters) C

Strange how the feed on warm Pacific air has made long in-roads into West Canadian Arctic Region with continued ice melt from the Bering and into the Beaufort Sea compares to this years much earlier start for ice formation now taking places from the Greenland Basin through to the Russian sectors. The normal Atlantic gulf of warmth and associated depressions are not being pushed into the Norwegian Sea (Atlantic storms again seem to be in non- transient mode again). The polar vortex has already become established nearer the European /Russian side of the North Pole. This set up is ripe for the development of potent Arctic depressions to push into The North Barent and even make some in-roads to split the dominence of the Russian Anticyclone at times. Carinthian

See snow showers down to sea level as viewed this afternoon from the Zeppelin Stn. Arctic air mass now tucking into Ny- Aalesund- should get some good snow pictures here in the morning. C

tHANKS KIPPURE, nICE TO SEE SNOW AGAIN ! c

Evening all, It seems the first snowfall of the season at the higher elavation station of Zeppelinn in Svalbard is now taking place. Catch now on web-cam. c. Can anyone bring up ?. I don't how to ! C

Hi all, I am not sure SB whether that is the reason, however there is now evidence of some good ice formation taking place in the Greenland Basin. Numerous sightings of icebergs for this time of year between Jan Mayen Island and the Denmark Strait as far south as 70N. A few have even landed in the NW of Iceland. The summer cold pool in The North Barent may have helped matters here to be followed by a colder circulation now established much earlier than last year in the Kara Sea. No doubt time will tell, never the less its looking good folks! Carinth

Hi all, I agree with AM &Pm3 that minimum levels have now been reached for 2006. There will be no repeat of last Autumns prolonged warm spell in the Siberian Sectors. Polar Met Charts forecast cold circulations from the North Barent to the Laptev Seas. However,what fascinates me is that unusual hole out in the West Canadian Arctic Sea Basin. Strange because it has formed in an area of long term ice pack well out to sea and some considerable distance from the coastline. I have studied ice data maps since 1969 and have never seen a "hole " in that particular area of the Beaufort Sea. At a guess, a summer of unusual pressure sequences in that location maybe the answer. C

Hi AM, I use the Orange Web Search : type in www.aari.nw.ru This is a Russian Federation department site for satellite, sea ice and hydrological info based in St Petersburg that gives a weekly ice report and drift forecast , plus yearly comparisons. Better than many other experimental Arctic Rim sites, I think anyway. Good searching. C

In contrast to the Tc warmth across Alaska and into the Canadian Western Arctic, the cold circulation now established over the Kara Sea has allowed earlier freezing over here. Todays latest satellite and sea ice information confirms sea ice has made landfall on the NW side of the Taymyr this week. The amount of full ice cover in this sector is way ahead of this time last year but probably nearer to the longer term "norm"/ The Russian sea ice archives document a bigger retention compared to this time last year( more so than the Cyrosphere updates ) I have always thought their analyses may be off the pace somewhat ! Carinthian

Hi ALL, Late summer hangs on for our Alaskan friends. A significant warm air mass of Tropical Continental origin is now making its affect into the Canadian Western Arctic sector producing some lower ice retention here. The main polar vortex is expected to be soon centred off the Mid- Siberian Sector (around the Kara Sea sector ) This will result in some rather impressive low temps to be recorded between the Pole and North Greenland coastal sectors and with a colder air mass pushing into Baffin. Hopefull some colder air will start to filter out of Siberia and into the Western Arctic Basin. Ice level continue to hold firm in most sectors , but prolonged ,albeit, late arrival of warmth into the Beaufort Sea and now Chukchi Sea lays hold for some concern here. Carinthian

Hi Mezz, Glad you like the thread. Some really interesting poster. Lets hope we get a great "ice season " Let us know if you find that satellite shot. I am fascinated by your wide choice of interests. Whats indie music ? C

Hi Pm3 Fantastic shot that is. Just think in a couple of months that whole area will be locked in ice and darkness ! Just a question how far is that pronouced ice edge out to sea and does it reflect satellite images ? One wonders ! C

Hi, A lot of research and interesting dccumentation from GP latest post. We may be a long way from the "6th Winter Scenario" , but another winter of negative AO will allow anticyclone extention to influence our weather type in the British Isles to become more "polar continental" as GP suggests. The polar limit of the westerlies is driven nearer and nearer to the limit of the trades, the pressure gradient becomes steeper and who knows what could happen ? C

Hi Pm3, Last you will remember, minimum ice levels were recorded in Mid-October in the Siberian Sectors. That was very late due to the exceptional pump of warm air last Autumn into that region. I don't expect that to be repeated this Autumn. High pressure cells and well placed in the Arctic Regions at the moment with -AO period on-going with warm air penetrations limited. The main ice edge in the Laptev and Kara Sea is still more prominent than last year A lot of rainfall recently between the Taymyr and Lena Delta and at times snowfall on the mountain ranges ( this time last year it was warm and dry) C

Hi Sue, Holme on the Wolds, between Market Weighton, Arras Hill and Beverley on the Driffield Road. Has one of the highest church spires in the county. Played many cricket games there and drank at a very good pub called "The Pipe and Glass " Have you moved out to NZ permanently ? Cheers C

jh related to Thor the Scandinavian "God of thunder" and beware also known as the "hammer " Pm3 No Advance of the drift ice expected this week. C

Hi Jackone, Our John Holmes should know really, because I have a feelin that his ancestors rowed up the Humber Flue with the Viking warriors en - route to Jorvik (YORK ) passing well known villages as Holme of the Wolds and Holme of Spolding Moor. Our JH is a river tyrant from the land of Norse. C