carinthian

Hi BFTP, "The 6th Winter " pure sci--fiction fantasy " ? A book by Douglas Orgill and Dr John Gribbon which I read on publication way back in 1979 . This story is about the return of the ice age. A must read for climatology.. stunning ! A bit like the " Day after tomorrow " scienario- when ice ages happened rather suddenly in which the ice age cometh quite fast.. not as fast as the day after tomorrow but after "six winters "obviously..in which the albido effect of 6 consecutive severe winters caused so much reflection of solar energy that the cooling tipping point is reached with massive jet stream turbulance and formation of severe cold vortex that spreads out from Northern Siberia. Pure fiction maybe, but the last ice age 15,000 years ago, sporned very quickly . Food for thought. C

Bedtime for me john. Lost at dominoes tonight playing for the local pub team. Too many spots and a few pints. Anyway, a day nearer to our winter feast ! Cheers c

Yes John , I know what you are on about. You will not see the 40 shades of green there ! C

hI John, A wonderful coastline in that part of the " old country " Yes, PM3's posts are very testing. He asks a lot of very important questions. KW covers such a wide ground in his posts. Nice to see he come on board with our particular pet subject. Cheers C

hI kw. Thanks. Record lows were recorded by automatic weather stations on the summit and at the Nord station in the period October. However, it must be remembered that these recording cover a relative small time span due to the advent of such remote recordings. Agree with you that the Atlantic is widely more quite this past summer. The northern block seems to have a strangle hold on our weather for some considerable period now. Maybe we are on track to the 6th winter scenario ? C hI jOHN, Nice to see you posting again on this thread. Classic Northern Block jet flow. We were close last year. Maybe this year. Ps, Enjoyed your holidaypictures from Co Clare. Kind Regards. C

hi KW, Thanks for your thoughts. All I can add is that the Greenland "cold pool" was very much in evidence last Autumn with some record breaking low temps recorded there and then low and behold a mild winter followed, particularly over Western Greenland ! Regarding tropical cyclones ( were they more active this time last year ). I ask you as you seem to be well versed in this documentation. C

hi P3, The Arctic Ocean with its basins is usually contained with-in the 80 degree parallel and separted from the Arctic Rim countries by regional Seas. The main blocking is from the Mid- Atlantic to Greenland and into the Western Arctic Basin. High pressure conditions at this time of year allow greater solar reflection and should ensure less ice melt. Low pressure systems are then driven southwards out of the pole to the East of the block and should retain the ice pack in the area ( ie ) from the pole into the Barent. C

Hi P3, Yes, I have reported it will now depend on the Cana dian Sectors whether minmimum levels overall are to be rreached, but don't now expect that in the Barent and Arctic Ocean sectors. C

Hello again, Further to the above report, I am now sure that we are past the period of minimum sea ice levels in the Arctic Ocean and the Barent Sea. The development of a cold pool here this week with forecast temps at pressure 850hpa widely below -10c. Arctic Rim forecasts for sea ice to drift into the Taymyr peninsula and with a strong drift to Svalbard ( a big change in the North Barent Sea to this time last year ) Whether sea ice levels get as low as last year remains to be seen, but may well now be decided by the amount of further decline that takes place in the Canadian Sector and West Arctic Basin. The prolonged Mid-Atlantic and Greenland block should soon start to hence the Mid- Arctic Basin "cold pool " and continue to push even colder air into the Barent. Carinthian

Rain started at 7 am persistant and quite heavy at times. Feels cold. No watering the garden today. Looks like my cricket match is going to be called off. First one for ages ! Central heating on also. No record August this time. C

Hi Pit, Yes thanks,always nice to "chill" in Ibiza. C

Hi Jackone, Thats Ok. I feel that SST , sea ice and latest Arctic Reports is to big a subject to discuss in one thread. Thanks, C

Hello, Wheres the Latest Arctic Reports thread gone ? C

Hi SSts and sea ice talk are covered by Summer Brizzards open forum. Arctic Reports cover land based and upper air observations as well as sea ice reports. It would be too much of a wide topic to merge. Thanks C

Hi P3 Yes. C Hi Damien, Not sure how to post maps. Its an age thing. But charts from late January 79 come to mine. Mild winter do not fit the scenario. C

Hi Blast. As you say, just stunning. Winter of 1969 was a peak of southerly ice extent in the Iceland Basin and Barent sea. So we have a long way to go (ice wise ) but it is encouraging to see the persistance of the North Barent Sea cold pool this past few months. C

Damien, Best example is to use www.wetterzentrale. top karten Archives and look at the period 4th to 7 th February 1969 and study 500mb animation charts. You will see how a Northerly jet fed by the North Barent low splits the dominant Greenland and North Siberian high pressure systems. That February produced some amazing snowstorms. I know as I drew many surface charts during that period. If John Holmes reads this post, I think he was on duty when they had to close the airport at Manchester . C

P, The North Barent Low is different from the girdle of low pressure systems that frequently occur along the polar front. In effect the North Barent low is a cold pool circulation which is beyond the line of convergence and westerly winds. Its feed is primarily polar. In winter this source will provide greatest risk of widespread snowstorms to the United Kingdom if the high pressure systems are established in the right places (ie) Greenland to Siberia. Occasionally these Anticyclones are broken by an invasion of cyclonic storms from the North Barent. So P3 I think you are on the right track. Polar Met Charts are obsessive to me and if the North Barent cold pool remains throughout the winter period , expected some amazing winter weather ! C

Hi P3 More than likely possible shifts in wind patterns affect the distribution of "open water " areas in the polar ice cap. Global Warming affects very much in research stage as yet . cheers C

Hi again, Just a point of interest,the first snowfalls of the" season" early today affecting the Northern Barent and the projected cold pool there early next week down to -15C at 850 mb level. Very strange summer up there after a past winter season of very low ice retention. Worth watching developments in this region. Can have a major influence of our coming Autumn. Carinth

Is he on holiday ? Not read any of his posts recently. Could be back posting on Met Check forum. C

Hi P3, Just been catching up with your great posts. For much of the summer in the Canadian Arctic Rim winds had kept the ice pushed close to the coast, as a result young or first season ice remained longer than expected. The formation of the Alaskan Low reversed the wind flow and with the advent of the predicted warmer winds off the land probably caused this "quick" reduction in the middle. This process is likely to continue for about another 10 days before freezing up starts again. C

Greetings, What a refreshing change to be back in a "temperate" Blighty this August after 2 weeks of blistering heat in Ibiza. Memories of the July heatwave now a distant memory, thoughts turn northwards as the sun sinks towards the horizon in the land of the "mid-night sun" and the fast approaching Autumn Equinox and the North Pole in twilight. Usually by the second week of August, mean temps fall below 0C from the Mid - Arctic to the pole itself. Having being away for a few weeks, I been studying the excellent charts provided by the Spanish Met Office,who also provide a TV channel to include sailing forecasts and even upper air chart presentations for the watching public. Anyway, heres my view of the latest reports from the Arctic: The next 3 to 4 weeks will show if we are to reach a record low in Sea Surface ice extent. My observations think it will be close run. As expected from the last report, the Canadian sector has opened up with some low contentrations of ice up to 75 degrees N, however, the Beufort Basin remains locked to the Point of Barrow. In the Siberian Sector Laptov and Kara Sea have widely opened up with some low concentrations . Nearer to home the Barent Sea " cold pool " intrigue remains. Looking at the latest temperature predictions I do not expect any further reductions of the Arctic Ocean sea ice extent above 78N and the solid concentration in the Augura Basin should soon start to expand southwards towards the Barent Sea. Carinthian

Nice one Drew. C

Hi John, Bob worked at the MWC in the early 70s. I am sure he lived in Holmes Chapel in those days ? C