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Posts posted by Supercell
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It's heavy now and starting to accumulate more readily. Temp at 0.2C
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Met office has upgraded for here. Still showing heavy snow at 12, but has changed from 'Mist' to 'Light Snow' at midnight. I hope we start seeing some bigger flakes, I want to go for a walk if it does.
Shouldn't be too long. Members just to the west of us are seeing the heavier snow.
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Just in answer to all the "will it be a snow to rain event?" and "How much snow can I expect ?" questions... Nobody is sure on the details. It'll be a case of watching the radar tomorrow evening and looking at what locations further west are reporting. It was always going to be a nowcast with the forecast just giving us a rough idea.
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So the fax has the front stalling over us? I'm sure the great Daventry snowshield will still find a way to hold out strong and prevent much snowfall here though :lol:
I know how you feel. After watching years of these type of set ups fail to deliver in this area, it's hard to believe in the current model output. I remember the classic "Winter Storm" warning highlighted on a BBC forecast (may have been last year). Widespread blizzards and chaos, but not a grain of snow actually fell.
It'll be a nowcast as always. Good to see signs of snow at last though
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The models are always uncertain in these instances and disagree even as close as T6hrs. They are rarely spot on which is very important as there is such a fine line between: a snowfest, a rainfest or no precipitation at all.
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My bedroom heater is broken and the temperature has dropped to 10.8C inside and I am FREEZING. -3.5C outside.
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Hmmm, everyone on my Facebook news feed keeps saying it's snowing here in Rugby, but every time I look out of the window, it isn't. Hmm.
There were a few snow grains this morning falling from the low cloud.
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Some of the ramps in the model discussion thread talking up snow depths, last night, were very unrealistic. The pressure is just too high to have any organised or intense precip. In this type of set up, I am more interested in establishing the cold and then seeing what we could get from a battleground scenario at a later date. If we can get deep cold established it's unlikely that the Westerlies will just blast through the block without giving us some fun. I know it's not Dec 2010, and I know we didn't get the massive battleground dumping, but entrenched cold held off numerous attempts by the Atlantic to break through and we had snow from other sources.
Cold first, snow later
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Hows it going down in Western mate? I agree with you, see the models rarely predict convective showers in Easterlys that well. They tend to upgrade the ppn activity about 12-24 hours before the event, not that i'm complaining about that! I also think they under estimate shower activity in Easterlys as well. I normally see loads more ppn moving in off the East coast in these set ups than the models forecast!
I'll go sledding down a big hill with you if we get a covering this week in Leicester :lol: They are currently selling sleds down Asda so I might have to buy one tomorrow!
The showers usually make it well inland too (even to parts of Wales I recall and eastern Ireland benefits from the Irish Sea) as there are no hills to block and drain away the precip. The easterly of Feb 2005, although a big let down with it's modified air source, managed to produce 14 consecutive days of falling snow here
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Pah
Thats baby hail - May Tornado season we have warnings for Gorilla Sized Hail (5" +) Now that hurts!
I am still waiting for a few dents to appear in my tin hat. Got the nine iron ready too. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/wink.png
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A quick response to my own question, just done a bit of quick research and the Super Tuesday Outbreak in 2008 in saw two EF4 tornadoes rip through Alabama between 9.00 - 11.00am
I am not sure how rare these instances of mid-late morning outbreaks are (maybe Mr. Sherman can shed some light), but there are occasions when the conditions are right.
On a much less impressive scale, I had my first severe morning storm about 5 years ago. It was bizarre. The lightning strike rates were scary and the rainfall really intense. This was all happening at around 8 am.
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Anyone flown with Iberia? Seems leaving it to book your flights is the wrong option I blame the wife though! They are coming up on skyscanner searches and are the cheapest direct with good flight times
zzz Ignore, they just have their flights operated by BA and AA
I'm hoping they remain steady at between £450-500. I booked around christmas last year, but it will be a late decision this year with work / college exams and assignments etc.
Scrap the above. Closer to £600 now lol.
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I just received an offer from Reading University for the three year degree subject to completion of an Access to HE course. I made a right mess of my a-levels (failed 3 out of 4). because I was lazy and didn't care at the time. And having worked for 4 years in a job I wasn't really interested in and then going on to experience the netweather storm chase, I decided to refocus on a potential career in meteorology.
I attended a Reading University open day last summer and spoke to the admissions tutor and found that I could get on the course via a one year access to higher education course. I am currently halfway through it and really enjoying it. So there are other options.
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At least you weren't alone in the 4 State hangover, it's probably the most memorable one I'll ever have......I was most greatful for the 3 Maccy D Frozen Strawberry Lemonades that day!
You dealt with it better than me. I felt like all the ingredients for an epic supercell were coming together in my head.
I remember it well we left you in the car outside the dinner and then had to nip out to find a post office. I had to leave you out in the car outside the post office whilst went to post a letter. I dont think you stirred. We did leave the engine running with the AC on. We were not worried about you over heating we were slightly worried that someone might drive off in the van with you in the back.
Tom
Thanks for looking out for me. Lesson learned (probably).
Congrats to Dave. Enjoy the responsibility !
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If I can sort something out to get me on this years tour remind me not to get hammered and then spend a 400 mile journey sparked out in the back of a car in 100F heat. Grim.
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2.8C with a dew point of 2C. Need heavier ppn to start to lower this temp more rapidly.
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Going to have to leave it late this year. Left my job to go back in to education so money is a bit of an issue but i'm trying to save. If I get to a point where i'm able to book it'll most likely be sold out as places are rapidly going ! May have to go on tour 6 by myself :lol:
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Good luck to everyone. My call is that the snow wont make it further north than about 20 miles south of Brum. Its happened so many time in the past, like 6 inches in Warwick and Rugby, bugger all in Walsall lol.
Need to give it a 50 mile push north
Good luck to everyone. My call is that the snow wont make it further north than about 20 miles south of Brum. Its happened so many time in the past, like 6 inches in Warwick and Rugby, bugger all in Walsall lol.
Need to give it a 50 mile push north
Oh I dunno about Rugby. I had to drive to stratford last December to see near enough a foot of snow in places where we had nothing. Leamington, Coventry and Warwick had a decent amount too.
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First storm since tour one storm chase USA lol. Some very heavy rain 7mm at 110 mm/hr ! And a small hail core too.
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So I was correct in saying that Doncaster would smash the record today and they have.
I have also predicted they will take the October record tomorrow. I believe 32C will be achieved tomorrow.
Where are you looking for the temperature readings ? Most sites will round up (or down) to the nearest degree.
Only the met office obs are going to be used for record purposes.
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I maxed out at 28.2C today, up from the 27.9C recorded yesterday.
I imagine the national high will come in at around the 29.5C mark. We should be able to match that tomorrow (if not slightly increase on it) to give us the all time October high record !
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Another thundersnow report from the 28th Jan 2004 event. The most intense period of snowfall I have been in. Walking home from school I thought I saw a flash of lightning, but it wasn't until the thunder boomed that I knew what was happening. Memorable.
The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 4
in Regional
Posted
Yeah... that really annoyed me. I drove to stratford (about 40 mins away) and went from seeing a dusting to a foot of snow.