coldfingers
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Michael Fish is gonna be on Sky News at 10am with Murnagham.
I really hope he doesn't say anything he might regret on Monday evening! People so very easily misconstrue what a person says.
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Not sure if it has been brought up before, but here are the predicted sea states for inshore waters, with a further update tomorrow evening to come.
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Inshore waters forecast, taken from the BBC website.
Lyme Regis to Lands End including the Isles of Scilly
Strong wind warning
17:00 UTC Sun 27th Oct – 16:59 UTC Mon 28th Oct[*]Wind South or southwest veering west, 6 to gale 8, increasing severe gale 9 to violent storm 11 for a time.
[*]Sea State Very rough or high, occasionally very high in far west at first, becoming rough or very rough later.
[*]Weather Rain then squally showers.
[*]Visibility Moderate or poor, occasionally good.
And then for those in the following area.
Lands End to St Davids Head including the Bristol ChannelStrong wind warning
17:00 UTC Sun 27th Oct – 16:59 UTC Mon 28th Oct[*]Wind Southwest becoming cyclonic, then northwest backing west later, 6 to gale 8, increasing severe gale 9 or storm 10 for a time.
[*]Sea State Very rough or high, becoming rough in east later.
[*]Weather Rain then squally showers.
[*]Visibility Moderate or poor, occasionally good.
Worth noting that these are issued 24 hours in advance so tomorrow evening's update will be even more revealing.
You should have posted those in the Western thread not the South East!
Oh dear, Oh dear! So sorry GTLTW, I am mixing up the threads now. Forgot this is the severe storm one. VERY humble apologies, please blame in on my old age and too many tabs open.
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Really blowing a gale outside here on Poole Harbour; husband's app claims gusting up to 50 tonight, don't much fancy how it would sound at 70+ especially as the gate of the construction site over the road is banging so loudly I can't imagine any sleep will be possible. Seems unlikely we will stay tomorrow night now, and unfortunately we seem to be in for rain tomorrow anyway, so may be driving home in rain, albeit not driving rain as long as we get going in time.
Hi, hope you do drive home tomorrow because as you say, it wont be a nice day with gale force winds and rain along the South Coast anyway. Come back in summer, much more fun then. Wishing you a good drive home.
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slightly worried - have a "full" skip out the back after clearing the house of junk all day
I'm thinking either lots of bungies over the top - or a tight tarpaulin
worried about debris taking out neighbours cars ....
Haha, I thought that last line said about taking out neighbours cats! Thankfully they have enough sense to stay in if they have a litter tray.
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I think I may struggle to get down my work road on Monday morning, half a mile of this...
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Cancel monday morning.
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What is an exposed coast?
One whose raincoat blew away!
Seriously though, it is a coast where the wind is blowing onshore, just like it will be in Folkstone.
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Was suppose to be in Kent this weekend till Monday didn't fancy been in a caravan near the sea sooo cancelled Hubby not impressed :@ told me it would only be windy!!!! Am thinking of catching a flight up to Scotland asap till Tuesday Hubby now on the floor in fits of laughter!! Mmm:-P
Chloe, I for one am glad you cancelled the caravan. Most definitely NOT the place to be in a storm and the far corner of Kent looks like it could catch the worswt of this coming storm.
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Lol awwww thank you ! I do indeed have front row seats , getting rather scary ! Portland is a windy place at the best of times let alone with the winds forecast ! Arghh tiny bit excited though lol x
I can understand your feelings, That road in is likely to flood also. I don't know if I am more worried or more excited at what could happen but I can promise one thing, I WILL be watching out of the window even though hubby thinks I must be mad!
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A lady rang to ask if there was an explosively deepening secondary on the way.
I like this but REALLY don't want to see anything like '87 again please! I have taken every precaution but living half a mile from the beach and in an area to catch the worst of the wind I am getting a little worried now!
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Met office app has gusts of 84mph at 7am for me here in Brighton! What would the outcome of that be.........? Thanks
Good chance of quite a few tiles on the streets in the morning!
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Don't forget you can check your latest local forecast here:
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx2;sess=
And an at a glance wind speed forecast for the next 5 days here:
Just a question Paul. Do those wind speeds mean sustained wind speed or highest gust windspeed. Worried if it is sustained as it shows 64.4 for monday, I really don't want that to be sustained winds !
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I spent the afternoon strengthening garden fence and gate, putting away anything loose in the garden and picking the rest of the pears on my tree. This afternoon down town I was amazed to hear how many people were talking about the coming storm,I just hope they pay enough attention to actually make sure their gardens are also as safe as possible. No doubt I will end up with neighbours rubbish in my newly tidy garden. LOL. I have candles, new batteries for torches and now plenty of milk, bread and eggs, so I am happy to spend the next day and a half at my computer checking out how the storm develops. Of course if the power goes off then I also have plenty of books to read, hubby will miss his tele though, LOL
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What do people recon on taking a trip to the coast tomorrow? Would there be any swell as yet from this storm then? Or would it be too early? I love watching the sea.... Would North or South Coast be best?
Look at a webcam instead! It is safer when the winds is worst but there should be a good swell for a while after the worst of the storm has passed.
Ooh, torrential rain here at the moment as well as strong wind.
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Will the Isle of Wight be bad sun / mon not really had a big storm since I moved here 6 yrs ago ?
If you live in Ryde it won't be as bad as the South side of the Island as it will be sheltered from the worst of the winds, UNTIL that is the winds turn more westerly, then you will feel more of a blow.
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Yes .... Is Portland likely to get cut off?
If it comes off as the charts are suggesting then I would say Portland is VERY likely to be cut off, unless they have done any upgrade work on the linking road in recent years. It has happened before and the Southwest, turning Westerly look to the winds isn't a good scenario for the causeway. It shouldn't be cut off for too long if it is and remember with neap tides it may not happen.
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Very windy, actually gale force already in Bognor and looks to stay close to Gale 8 right until the big storm arrives.
Sea already looking very stormy on the cam for Bognor. http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live
Thankfully it is back in full working order ready for the storm.
I have spent hours today mending and stabilising the gate in our fence and propping up the neighbours one that is likely to take the full force of this storm. Now everything is ready for the worst so i can relax and watch now.
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I'm in that 92 MPH area and I live on top of a hill
Just like us in West Sussex (we lived above the village of Fernhurst).
The wind was truly weird the way the valley to the south channelled it. Our neighbour's whole very heavy brick chimney stack was just lifted clear of their roof and dumped in the front of the house on the lawn. They were very lucky it was lifted as if it had rolled down the roof it would have crashed through into their bedroom. After that, this wind went straight up their drive and snapped a whole plantation of 12" diameter pine trunks off 5 foot from the ground like matchsticks. Trees a couple of metres either side were untouched.
Out house was about 50 yards away and all that happened was we lost a few tiles from the roof.
But seriously, fill your bath and as many containers with drinking water beforehand, we didn't have wheelie bins in those days, but if one is cleaned out thoroughly it holds a lot of water — if it's bad you can forget about the bin men. As likely as not the electricity will be knocked out and there'll be nothing to pump it up the hill. No electricity is just about bearable, but no water is not.
Also we thought the leccy would be back after a week or so, but there was so much devastation that it was 6 weeks the council and power workers were going from substation to substation clearing branches and lines and getting them working again — as 8 million trees had come down, it was a long job. The only reason our water was restored after 12 days was because there was a nursing home for elderly along the common, otherwise we'd have had to wait a lot longer.
Icene, that sort of damage sounds more like a tornado touching down for a short while, especially the chimney lifting over the roof.
Could anyone tell me how the Isle of wight could potentially be affected please..Im on the south side of the island literally 2 minute walk from seafront
I personally would have thought the South side of the I.O.W. would catch it pretty badly. Be careful and stay safe.
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Just poked my head out of the window and although it is quite windy it is warm, well for this time of year!!
CHIMET shows air temp 16.2C and sea 14.8C, my weather station says 16.4C. Crazy for October and that warm sea water will only fuel this storm.
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There's the potential for some very high wave heights in the Channel on Monday morning based on 18z - 8 metres plus in places with the right benthic topography given the wind strength and direction. Expect dramatic pictures from places like Bournemouth or Lyme Regis on Monday morning.
Someone yesterday gave me a link to two webcams of the beach in Selsey in W.Sussex . They will be good for Monday morning.
http://beautifulbeach.bunn-leisure.co.uk/webcam.aspx
Bognor also has a superb one with sound as well as superb view of the beach at Bognor.
http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live
Sadly today it is off!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Aaargh if it isn't working on Monday morning I wont be responsible for my behaviour!
Worth saving these links for Monday, if they aren't blown away. LOL
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hi mark
i agree with you
being weather enthusiasts we all want to see extreme weather
but then when damage and potential for injuries come up it makes it an awkward feeling
as none of us want to see that side.
i suppose none of us can change this whatever we feel
Can I mention now that if anyone sees damage happening in their garden during a storm, DON'T go out to try to secure anything! A few people have got killed that way in many storms from '87 and onward. Stay safe everyone. You have tomorrow to make everything secure. Do it then even if it turns out not to be necesary in the end. you just may be very thankful on Tuesday that you had foresight.
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I'm scared because I'm camping Sunday night into Monday in Devon... :'(
I am sure the emergency services would far rather you didn't camp!!!! The very least of your problems will be getting extremely wet as soon as your tent collapses
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I am sure this had been mentioned but it is so mild tonight is unbelievable. Think this gonna be epic
This warmth has been worrying me for days. Was cold on Sunday '87 when we visited family, came out of the house a few hours later and was amazed at the warmth. I am no expert but I think the cold/warm air interaction makes things worse?
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Just got back from a long drive from the south coast. The VMSs on the M25 are up warning of strong gales Sunday Monday .. Those went up before we had that snow event last year. Local authorities have had their warnings on the south coast so contractors are on alert. The thing that struck me though most tonight was generally how very mild it is tonight and there is a lovely albeit a little gusty breeze tonight. It really is quite lovely out there!
Hoping though that whatever happens on Sunday into Monday people take heed. Forewarned is prearmed ...(is it that way around?). But tomorrow I would like to know more how far inland it could get. Id like to warn my friends that this time for those horses that do still stay out at night.. Ought to on this occasion be brought in. ....
Hi Polar bear. Been down visiting the parents? Hope all is well with you and stays that way into late Monday. Tomorrow my garden will be tidier than all summer. LOL.
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As I said before, the Rosenbloom Rule hints that a storm like this will track to the left (north) of the model forecast tracks. This could mean places like the Isle of Wight could be wightly fooked!Still large scope for this to fall on the cold side of the polar front and hence not deepen as much. I think it'll be all to play for until t-24 hrs, and even then we could see a wide range of minimum pressur forecasts. I'm going for 965 hPa.
Please don't talk about it tracking further north, I can see Isle of Wight from where i live and I am also only half a mile from the beach. I REALLY don't want this storm to even be a baby of '87. Once in a lifetime is enough, also my daughter is only one street away from the beach with South facing windows. Thankfully their bedroom is to the north.
Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Yes, I wouldn't like to live on the south side although for a period we also in W,Sussex will get equally badly hit.