Harry

Agreed! Definitely what I didn’t want to see so late on - also the direction of travel seems slightly more NE too which isn’t great for London and points north and west. NMM-WRF also has the heaviest stuff slightly further south and therefore more in line with AROME - fingers crossed they’re outliers

I agree - it is 23C with a dew point of 6C here - warm, but not notably humid. Although, I was surprised to see the dew point is only 6C as it does feel a bit muggier than that. All somewhat moot anyway as any storms will be elevated, so it matters more what’s going on higher up. Nothing in the mid levels that would suggest storms at the moment.

Those first specks over the Brest Peninsula, just west of Rennes, will be the precursors to initiation, again somewhere between IoW and Cherbourg…he hopes!

Phone weather forecast has a pleasing update - now showing lightning symbols and breaking out around 10pm.

Latest UKV (12z) Not much difference to previous runs that I can see.

I would suggest radar and lightning detector watching from 6pm this evening, when should start to see the first showers forming somewhere between IoW and the Cherbourg peninsula in N France. Then it’s watching, waiting and hopefully sky gazing The milky high clouds are starting to move in from the south now, indicating the plume beginning to drift in - although what we want to see is the moisture in the mid-levels increasing as this is where any storms will be developing.

Certainly the further north you are the less likely it will be for thunder this evening. The area with most realistic chance is from a line between IoW and Norwich south and eastwards. That said the highest instability will reside across areas east and south of London, so even in this region there are variables.

It is very difficult to say to be honest with you. The greater chances of thunder are further east so I would say, yes there is a chance, but reassure him that it might not happen. I was terrified of thunder when I was younger. I then started reading kids weather books and saw a documentary about storms, and from that point it flipped to complete fascination (to the point of almost obsession really when storms are around). One thing I can’t get my head around is that the models seem to keep showing a peak in CAPE after the rain and storms have largely moved on through. I’m finding that a little bit baffling and some cause for concern regarding degree of lightning potential.

The warmer and more humid airmass is still south of the UK. I would expect the sky to start turning milkier and maybe some Ac starting to appear a bit later as moisture and instability begins to rise a little

Don’t take any notice of that @tomp456. You also forget they are in 3 hour increments - the stuff to your west will move and develop NE and the further wave will move from your S - so if it plays out like that it’d be incredible for you to miss out completely

Thanks @BrickFielder - whilst a little excited at the prospect of some thunder and lightning, I too have been a little concerned about reasonably limited instability showing on models. Yes there could be some torrential rain but if the CAPE doesn’t materialise it won’t be electrified. CAPE extends from IOW to EA but it is marginal - the best CAPE seems to be further east, with a pool of decent CAPE over C/E Kent, Essex and Suffolk. The radars are showing a lot of precip breaking out too which could impact how much of those outbreaks are electrified further. Time will tell.

Indeed @Lance M Here is a link for those who might not be familiar: Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Check the UKV charts available on NetWeather - the latest is the 15z - have attached three snips from it This is the take on tomorrow’s potential by Paul Blight or ‘PJB’ on UK Weather World forums (this forum is the best however fyi) who is well respected. It is subject to current modelling however (so caution advised!) but it’s a great read.

Pushes it all even further west!

Ooh….strike close to IoW - imagine some of you who live there will be hearing rumbling. Definitely the furthest north strike we’ve had thus far

Based on current modelling yes. Best thing to do is check @Nick F’s storm forecast on here and @staplehurst’s convective forecast on Convective Weather tomorrow. What is intriguing about this evening is how capped the sky is and a front is really not that far away.

I am not too convinced about that at the moment @jake44. I'm not seeing much in the way of instability getting into the SE tonight based on current models. If those models are correct, then while there is a shower risk in the next few hours, they are unlikely to be electrified...this is playing out at the moment by the lightning detectors, which show that lightning is not getting far beyond northern France. IF (and its a big IF) the heat today has generated enough local energy and/or some of that juice across N France can be drawn ahead of the front, then there may be a few sparks. But I'm not optimistic at the moment. As for tomorrow evening - Ramsgate seems to me to be an amazing place to be located!!!

You do have access - click below UKV Model Viewer | Netweather.tv WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

12z UKV looking as amazing for tomorrow evening - let’s hope it’s the start of trend and not an outlier

A cell has sprung to life mid-channel...radar watching from here on in.

Over 25C here now - warmest day of the year so far. Feels great! Bit of heating won’t harm the admittedly low chances of a possible storm later.

09z UKV watered down potential for this evening - heaviest showers going through the Channel. As for tomorrow evening, however, WOW!!!! A MASSIVE upgrade by way of westerly and northerly extent.

Agreed - I can already envision how tomorrow evening will pan out (if it doesn't do the eastward shift) - evening storms arriving in Brighton - I sit patiently watching lightning flashes way off to my south - thunder rumbles get louder as it approaches and rain falls overhead, forcing me to dangle from an upstairs window - lightning gets brighter and more frequent as it pushes to my east - mates start texting saying they're having an amazing storm - I reply saying the distant flashes and rumbles sound and look amazing

Pleasant skies this morning some signs of Ac nice and early on.

Bit miffed as to what might happen for SE London/NW Kent over the coming hours - MCS shizzle about to move through - sky looks impressive but that’s tempered by the radar. The interesting aspect is the storms approaching Hampshire/IOW, which judging by blitzortung (but not the radar so much??) are starting to arc NE - which if true and remains the case, could come barrelling towards London in a few hours. Interesting few hours ahead