Harry

Got the radar back - interesting that there’s a general zone of convection breaking out all around me but only that to my E and NE is so far electrified - despite the outbreaks to my west being the more impressive on radar! Some nice bright flashes and decent rumbles though from the stuff just to my east.

The NetWeather radar has gone down for me Sky overhead is very agitated, although concerning is a closer flash I just saw was to my SE - sure I heard a super distant rumble from it. If the line is already east of here then it may just be some flashing and eventually boring ‘wrong side of it all’ rain. Will wait a bit longer. Edit - damn, another few bright flashes to my East (and distant booms)

Haven’t had this scenario in a while - I’ve got periodic lightning flashes lighting up the sky above me (and the room I’m sat in) but no idea where they’re originating from!

Slept through those earlier flashes recorded close to my area - no rain here despite the radar. Am being treated though to flashes over London currently though little on the detectors so far

Ignore what’s going on over France right now. If anything affects us, it’ll erupt from around 01:00 - 02:00 onwards

Agreed @minus10, less exciting than previous runs. However I tend not to look at models this close to proceedings and rely on sky-gazing. I’m inclined right now to set an alarm for 2am and have a quick check

I’m more of an observational weather fan (ie reading the sky) rather than a technical meteorologist. But, in essence, virga/jellyfish signify that there is relatively good moisture mid-way up in the sky, below air that is cooling/drying out above it, encouraging it to rise quite suddenly and rapidly (or vice versa - the air below is becoming warmer/more humid relative to the cooler/dryer air above it). It signifies the air is increasingly becoming conducive to convection - but because the air below is so much warmer, the precipitation is evaporating quickly - which causes the streaks. As the temperature higher up cools more quickly at night, however, it allows those clouds to start growing higher and higher - eventually generating lightning and heavier precipitation. As the air near the ground also cools, more of the precipitation hits the ground. So…the tiny jellyfish/virga gradually become fully fledged showers and eventually (hopefully) fully fledged cumulonimbus (storms). There will be others who I am sure will be able to give a more technical (or possibly more accurate) answer.

Great capture @Sprites - I call them jellyfish (I know they’re technically virga). Last time I saw those I saw 4 hours of storms….

Good luck, @Peachy!!

Every model I’ve just looked at has notable convective outbreaks tonight @StormLoser - even NMM 2KM which is astonishingly westward in its trajectory (IoW through London NNE’wards). AROME, NMM, ARPEGE, GFS, UKV - I’ve literally never seen such consistency! If we get nothing I’m calling it the biggest bust ever (and I never chuck that word around).

Not sure if this has been picked up but Dan (aka @staplehurst) has updated his forecast for tonight Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Now we’re sucking diesel

This bit of Ac getting a bit carried away already! My reading of the current skies is that I may be too far West…but, that said, instability should only start to be building from here on in, so will be curious to see what the skies look like in a couple of hours

Almost certainly. While the presence of storms developing over Bay of Biscay is encouraging, the models suggest it is NOT these we should be interested in, but instead developments in the Channel or over the UK after midnight.

Well that's done it then Although, unusual it is up there on the likelihood!

Lol - perhaps should have added the all important caveat... 'if it's accurate'! Last couple of 'thundery' spells have been huge disappointments for my location.

12z UKV is mouth-watering - bringing forward the action in terms of time and expanding the westward extent…………

28C here today which admittedly is higher than I expected (anticipated more cloud). Good good

Somewhat pleased there are no MetOffice weather warnings in place

I can’t see this has been posted already - Dan now upgraded to MDT for tonight’s storm risk Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Doom! Looks like if I can be bothered I might see flickers on the horizon then - otherwise the drought continues here

Friend of mine has reported thunder in Southampton, although does not appear on the detector.

Had a micro-shower a short while ago from that line running along EA/Essex, now into London - very potent for nothing more than a speck on radar, with some large, soft hail-like drops. Lightning frequency really beginning to pick up along the cluster of storms/downpours spiralling up across Hampshire/Sussex/Kent at the moment. Got everything crossed.

Slightly encouraging how the cell close to Hastings spat out some lightning almost as soon as it developed - hopefully this indicates the atmosphere across the SE starting to become a little more conducive to some sparks. 23C here currently with a dp of 17C - it is beginning to feel a little more ripe I have to say.

My weather app has suddenly binned the notion of storms today, having consistently been in favour for the past 24 hours bit frustrating if true. Let’s see