SnowBear

Define "Climate Change Denier".

I personally do think the focus on CO² is perhaps a bit naive. Although water vapour is short lived, if there is a net increase or decrease over time then it will have an effect. As I understand it at the moment it's seen mostly as a consequence of a warmer world, where more water vapour is carried in the air. But I do wonder if it can also be a driver of climate change. One area where this becomes important is where just purely due to cleaner air, more sunlight reaches the Earth's surface and the seas, more evaporation, and hence a slow average increase in the water vapour content. This becomes a self perpetuating cycle where more rain, a warmer climate due to that water vapour, and so more melting... And so on. If... And we don't know for sure quite yet.... If Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai has caused the shifts in heat and rain fall we have seen this year, that's quite a marked change for a 10% increase in water vapour in the stratosphere from an isolated event in the Pacific Ocean, and to have such large world wide consequences. So what really drives what. In the decades since the introduction of the Clean Air Acts and a more general reduction in producing smoke and particulates we reduce the aerosols in the air around which water vapour can condense into droplets. This is cloud seeding. Right now we focus almost entirely on CO². I do wonder if that's actually wise. Although aerosols may not be good for human health, the chemistry of the atmosphere may need a certain amount to keep it in balance. Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai has a very special place in history, and is a very unique "natural experiment" which we need to learn from as much as we can, because I think it can teach us more about our atmosphere and way beyond just the CO² factor.

Research does say that the increase of water vapour in the stratosphere, and also into the higher mesosphere, by the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcano would probably cause a temporary increase in warming, bringing us close to the 1.5°c threshold. It would probably also increase rain fall and rain fall rates. Both of these we have seen this year in variius places with increased heat, and some extremely high rain fall across the globe. Unlike a land based volcano, or even Krakatoa, which blasted mostly ash, rock particles and other aerosols high into the atmosphere, Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai was mostly water vapour, one of the most efficient greenhouse gases, but short lived. But due to that extreme height reached it will not "rain out" in a matter of days or weeks as normally seen in lower altitude weather, the best estimate I've seen is 2-3 years. So, this year, with that high altitude injection of water vapour and also the turbulence caused in the upper atmosphere by Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai, combined with the El Nino, and also the introduction of the clean emissions laws for shipping, we have seen a big spike in heat.. And rain events. As that water vapour decreases I suspect we will see a return to more "normal" levels, eg: the levels we saw before Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai. So yes, its had a warming effect, but it should be only temporary, providing any tipping points are not triggered. We shall see.

Umm, this is false, it's estimated that there has been somewhere around 110+ billion so far. Do the dead outnumber the living? WWW.BBC.COM The population of the planet reached seven billion in October last year, according to the United Nations. But what's the figure for all those who have lived before us?

Haven't had time to read the whole thread yet, but will later. Just want to pick up on this point made here where the graph increases very quickly in the period mentioned. Two major things occurred just before, the first was the advent of the jet engine. Unlike coal fires, and even industrial emissions, jet engines emit their pollution higher into the atmosphere. Along with the pollution a fair amount of water due to water injection is in the exhaust of jets, anywhere from 36kg for small jets to 11t for big airliners, per hour. Water, is one of the strongest greenhouse gases, although short lived, is continously being injected into the atmosphere by jet aircraft at high atlititudes and as aircraft use has increased, so has that rate of injection. Second, was the introduction of the Clean Air Acts in the UK of 1956 and again in 1968 (which by the way were not the first attempts to bring in anti-pollution laws, Manchester and Leeds back in 1842, and many US cities had laws in place by the 1900's), and along with an increase in laws globally soon after on smoke emissions has meant we now have very clear air in comparison to 100 years ago, meaning more sunlight reaches the ground. This was discussed recently this year in Spain where it has been counted as a factor for increased heat in the southern regions. These two events are not the be all and end all, but are two very important factors to take into account to understand the whole.

Latest from Shawn on Iceland, plus whether it's "solidifying". https://youtu.be/VqOVdVKxXfI?feature=shared

Such is nature, works to its own timescales not by ours hehe

And Shawn's view on things posted a few hours ago. https://youtu.be/_R3jvFhprHI?feature=shared

Today's IMO update.. Unchanged situation based on the latest interpretation | News | Icelandic Meteorological office EN.VEDUR.IS

Certainly seems to have quietened down, at least for now. With the way that peninsula is riddled with fractures and previous magma channels etc I suspect there will be a fairly long period during this awakening where old tubes and channels get filled, new ones made, fractures appear and perhaps make connections which fill or drain away magma... A bit like Swiss cheese! The intrusion under Grindavik having mostly drained away and causing the slump or Graben which has seen parts of the town displaced by a metre or more and the magma now more like hot toffee. A few interesting deep earthquakes with a 2.2 at 5+km a couple of hours ago (7.38am) and a very few shallow ones at the moment. Not over by any means but at least a respite for the residents of Grindavik even if they won't be able to return yet.

A more recent/better estimate of magma inflow to sill under the Blue Lagoon area from land deformation data is around 75m³/s.

The latest thoughts from Shawn Willsey on the situation in Iceland, will sit down and watch after dinner https://youtu.be/Ofuq5MSrcjM?feature=shared

There were discussions on YT on whether the magma has already started to cool and solidify, it's unlikely it will have yet as it can take many decades to cool down. The overlying rock can be quite a good insulator. On the hazard map you can see the boundaries of the sill which is a fair size in area and that's an awful lot of heat to dissipate. Additionally the closer to the surface the magma gets the less earthquakes you see. Today has been quite low in EQ Activity, it's estimated the magma is now around 500m from the surface, with a possible inflow to the Thorborn/Hagafell area of in excess of 50m³/s. As is quite often seen with eruptions in Iceland, when it goes quiet, watch out! But then again it may find another path as yet, that whole area is so shattered and broken there is any number of possible outcomes.

It's just an unknown, where or when. The whole of the peninsula is shattered and riddled with faults and fissures where magma can cause intrusions. It appears the magma that increased under Grindavik and the bay has lessened and is now creating a graben, where a central section of rock or land slumps between two faults either side as the land is pulled apart along with the shift NE of the magma in the sill. While in recent days the activity has shifted more NE to Svartsengi and the Blue Lagoon area with its associated line of cinder cones, it doesn't mean to say that's where any eruption will eventually occur. As magma builds, and then perhaps finds new ways to move elsewhere as pathways get blocked or new ones appear under the ground we could see a repeat anywhere along that fault line and even rebuilding under Grindavik. Additionally deep earthquakes and the shattering of rock there could mean new pathways for magma to rise. Unrest on the peninsula seems to go in cycles, laying quiet for many centuries and then goes through a period of activity lasting a couple of hundred years, so this is only the very beginning it seems. It could be many months before it actually erupts, or tomorrow, or not at all. Whether there will be any effect on the weather here or in Europe will very much depend where it eventually erupts, at the Blue Lagoon/Svartsengi probably very little as it will be a fissure eruption. If the focus move back to Grindavik and the bay area then it could be more explosive, at least I initially, which could then be more of a problem. All very interesting.

Does help if I give the link to Live From Iceland on YT https://www.youtube.com/live/804nPrAUAxg?feature=shared

For those keen to watch what is going on around Grindavik and The Blue Lagoon in Iceland, plus a chance for you questions to be answered by Professor Shawn Willsey if he comes into chat (creator of the YT videos I have been posting) check out Live From Iceland's channel here with multi views of the area plus real-time seismic data from... Skjálfti VAFRI.IS Skjálfti 3d EQ Plotting https://skjalftar.is/3d/?size=1 Raspberry Shake map .//favicon.ico Station View: Raspberry Shake Network & EQ Activity Map STATIONVIEW.RASPBERRYSHAKE.ORG Global map showing all live seismograph and infrasound Stations on our seismic network, with one of the most complete lists of recent earthquake activity. And for news and updates from RUV and Iceland Met... RUV Dregið hefur úr skjálftavirkni og ný gögn sýna litla breytingu - RÚV.is WWW.RUV.IS Vísindamenn Veðurstofunnar segja að eldgos gæti hafist hvenær sem er á næstu dögum.Ný GPS-gögn bárust Veðurstofunni klukkan 2:00 í nótt, sem sýna litla breytingu. Stöðufundur... IMO Forsíða Veðurstofu Íslands | Veðurstofa Íslands VEDUR.IS

Not had chance to watch yet but..Shawn's latest update on the Grindavik situation. https://youtu.be/thvLkIg96Xk?feature=shared

Shawn's update yesterday plus viewers questions answered.

Shawn's latest update.

Posted just under 30 minutes ago. (time now 21.55)

I'll post his daily update when he releases it later. This is yesterday's.

Nope, I know, was just a bit of info incase it's handy.

3 ping tests to community.netweather.tv 13ms 26ms 16ms No packets lost. Traceroute, 22 hops, last hop, the forum server.. 13ms. Android phone on Lila Gigabit through WiFi router. Location Colchester, Essex. Chrome on Android forum page loading normal, although the other day it was taking up to 10 seconds to load page, similarly the app.

Currently 28.4" mercury, which is 961.7mb at 8.45am in Colchester. You can see last night's marker which was around 11pm. I do have a very old mercury barometer which you can see in the pic below too but I need to reset that one, pic was taken last night.

It's been pretty much a coast crawler up to now. Possibly the centre will shift a bit further inland and exit somewhere around North Kent or the Thames Estuary I think. Strongest winds in the SE quadrant as to be expected over Jersey due to forward motion of the system, back edge SW/NW quadrant is lively and may cause problems as it runs through. I do think the call for school closures was a bit haphazard, in the past any closures would have been announced (usually by radio and TV announcements) in the morning if damage was severe or had occurred or upon an early morning forecast assessment. In the age of the Internet that's even easier now with txt and email systems able to mass notify in short order.