SnowBear

This may have been posted on the previous thread, but, this is the latest NHC Discussion Unoffical 881mb, to be verified, if it is verified then it Wilma will hold the record for intensification, at 101mb in 24 hours.

Projected wave height model on Wilma links thread GW :lol:

Ummmmm, hang on 982mb at 5am eastern yesterday....885mb at 5am today? 97mb in 24 hours?? Can someone verify that? The record is by Typhoon Forrest Source:http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E2.html

Mondy, a bomb of 86mb in 12 hours, only matched or beaten by typhoons in the Pacific :lol:

All sorted Mondy :lol:

I'll start it :lol: Off to do now

I think a new thread "Hurricane Wilma" would be in order now Mondy We can put a link back to here on first post so peeps can look back on posts in this thread. Wonder also if a wonderful mod would do the honours of closing this thread so we dont get confused peeps ? :lol:

Anyone flying out to the Gulf anytime soon, please check and stay in contact with your Travel agents now, dont leave it any longer. At this rate we could be looking at a possible catastrophic landfall when Wilma hits, dont leave anything to chance. She has bombed more than I expected for sure, I thought maybe a strong Cat 4 at some point, but, she has sat there for many days now with wonderfully warm waters to draw on so maybe we shouldnt be so surprised, and the area she can draw on has been increasing each day the larger she gets. My thoughts on track stay the same as my previous posts.

Hiya Steve! Thanks for your posts! I certainly hadnt looked that far ahead due to Wilma's meandering and dallying. Interesting to note from your link further up to the 12z ECM that the storm will have pretty much Cat 1 winds if my math is correct (not necessarily a technical hurricane but not impossible) if it does make a seaward track then make landfall near Cape Code/Maine/Nova Scotia. Something the guys up there sure dont need! // My feelings on this one I will stick to as all through, skim western Cuba > Ten Thousand Islands > Across FL > West Palm Beach > into the Atlantic > skimming up the Eastern Seaboard probably catching NC/VA then....as in Steve's posting re: Cape Cod/Maine/Nova Scotia, very possible but that is a long way off yet. If it is Cat 3 at landfall in FL, I doubt it will lose hurricane strength before West Palm Beach. A possible hurricane that make 3 landfalls? Time will tell :blink:

Ermmmmm, I go to bed last night, and pretty much all models are to clip the Yucatan, and then veer off somewhere in the North - North East Gulf, Wilma was heading almost due South...I get here this morning..and now NHC track is almost spot on the track I said at 00.40 last night!...clip Cuba > Keys > Ten Thousand Isands > Inland FL > West Palm Beach.Thats spooky..but I think its still too early to say for definite as Wilma could still lead us a merry dance before setting off properly.

I dunno, I want to see a real start in movement before I say too much, Wilma could do many things, I have suspected FL right from the start, clipping Cuba > Keys > Ten Thousand Islands > across FL and into the Atlantic at West palm Beach, then run up the Eastern Seaboard, but, its stalling and taking so long to build, and that drift South, we watch, we wait, its Wilma's move first and that wont come until an eye has formed and she becomes a hurricane I think.

I'm looking at the track so far and direction seems to be almost due South for the past few hours, a loop the loop in progress ? It must be said though that often a developing almost stationary TS can have its centre move and jolt around as its getting organised and at that time it can be difficult to discern a true direction. The general low centre has moved very little over past many hours.

Too early to say boro_dave, just keep close watch on this thread and NOAA National Hurricane Centre pages available here for the next 24/48 hours. The system is pretty much stationary at the moment over Jamaica.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G1.html

Many of the links we post do have changing content Crimsone, some refresh while you are on the page even, especially sat loops and images.

Sure looks like we have some activity again after a real lull in events. That old block has hung around for some time and stifled many areas which had potential. Which for the guys over there is great as it has given them a welcoming breather! Think I will see what happens in the next 24 hours on it before making too many comments on possible tracks etc. The are many ways this could go for now. Initial thoughts are though, Southern Florida maybe.

Thank you Nick <_< I hadnt even thought of taking a peek at estofex this morning lol It will be interesting to see if any energy from Vince can get into the Med and make use of the warm water there, if nothing else it is bringing much needed rain to the area after this years droughts!

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...8irnhcjava.html 10N - 35W <_<

Lets conclude this one with what really happened to our little friend Hurricane Vince, along with Mondy's post above regarding remnants of Vince, these are the last Public Advisory and Discussions from NOAA. Public Advisory Discussion

Hmmm, just been looking at the loops for that one GW, I tend to think that will track NE along with the weather system thats further inland in TX etc. Keep watch on Vince, its regenerated slightly I think as it near the Straits of Gibralta, certainly some new convection there.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...8irnhcjava.html 3 areas I am watching for now 5N - 35W 10N - 40-50W 10N - 55W http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...s/xxirmet7n.GIF Also the area just off Africa , a couple of areas there. 5-8N - 20-30W 5-8N - 0-10W I have no doubts we will see Wilma, and beyond. It would be a record yes, at the moment I believe we equal the number of named storms in a year, and when it gets to Alpha etc, it will be the first time the Greek Alphabet has had to be used. Remember though our records of hurricanes etc are only accurate for 35 years, back further and the margins of error increase.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...visirjava2.html Last few frames, the high level convection clouds have been sheared off by the fast approaching front and exposed the low level circulation, still quite an impressive little system, but, look where Vince is heading at the moment, directly for the Straits of Gibralta. If it can outrun the front and slip through those Straits and into the warmer waters of the Med, could be interesting!!

I would say the remnants will make landfall somewhere North Africa, possibly Southern Spain/ Gibralta, thats if its not completely absorbed and the indentity dissappeared before then by the front thats overrunning it.

Could possibly if it makes straight for the Straits of Gibralta, seems to be dissapating pretty quickly now though.