chapmanslade

A few miles away the view was clearer once the storm had got going as it sucked up a lot of the general crud. Nice view of lightning from here.

For all of those that didn't get a storm last Saturday (22nd) I was in France near to Cognac and we had a 10 hour storm with no breaks in electrical activity. Also reached 39C last Thursday (not a misprint).

First rumble of year from one of those showers

The worst summer storm I can remember here now with horizontal rain and severe wind. We wait 4 weeks for rain and then it doesn't actually land !

Did you get any pictures ? Already had pictures of a storm with supercellular characteristics in the south and what you are describing sounds similar.

Certainly looks that way and fits in with previous forecasts. Cells to the West of CI are moving NE but a clear line of cells developing North of that and swinging N/NE.

Bit of a sweeping statement there - need data to back up tabloid comments like that I feel.

I'm not far from you and completely brown here - don't forget the impact soil type has - light sandy soil here means the grass stopped growing 6 weeks ago and brown for the last 3 weeks. Dorset is also notoriously light soil and regularly dries out.

Looks like a sea breeze meeting the general flow resulting a line of convection - all to the south of me but looks like it can't really grow to any significant size

Ian Can I just say how nice it is to have you posting on NetWeather - it provides us with a significant extra input into our hobby from a genuine professional and is much appreciated

My prediction for today is for increasingly pointless posts peaking in excitement around 20.00 this evening before a second wave of doomladen posts around 23.00. In the meantime the real weather will do as it wishes. Post above about MCS formation is actually quite important as once a strong MCS has developed it will influence the developments itself which is very difficult to model.

Anything after the weekend is white noise on the ensembles So much inter run change I find it amazing that people read so much into it.

It's May for goodness sake ! 25C is not common in May anywhere in the UK. Don't forget May is only the fifth warmest month, behind September and just ahead of October.

No stingjet in the UK but likely it happened in France last night

Fohn effect - Santander and all along the North Spanish coast recorded 20C to 24C this afternoon with very dry air. Gust in the Pyrenees at Pic du Midi of 233Km/h and widely over 150Km/h. Saunac in France 11.3C to 20.6C in 20 minutes !!!!

If a tad more energy goes into the Northern arm than is currently being progged, then this could all change very quickly. Seems like a reasoned explanation to me ??

Steady 0.1C here all morning with steady light snow. Dew point falling slightly.

It was -3C last night, it was never predicted to be -3C during the day, light snow falling here as predicted What is all over - the world or the cold weather ? We have to remember that what we have had over the last few days is very rare and extreme and so unlikely to continue for long. The models are showing nothing mild at all, maybe a return to somewhere near average in the far SW. It just isn't possible to have a continental style freeze in the UK as we stick out into a relatively warm bit of water

Really ? And who exactly is going to pay for it when it happens once every 25 years ? You quote 3 winters in the last 60 years - we need to be prepared for the other 57 winters and hang in there for the 3 or 4 weeks of cold every now and then. There is no point having 40 days grit without the lorries that will simply rust away unused for 20 years They survived in the previous events by getting on with it - clearing their own roads, helping each other out and not blaming others when things get a bit difficult

You know what - mild and drizzly never hurt anyone and allows us to go to work and come home again without noticing the weather which is wonderful if you work outside. Cold and snow is fun if you don't have to work and can go sledging with the kids as I will do on my half day on Friday - just got to endure Friday morning outside working first.

Interesting temperature variations whilst out and about today. -6.3C at 08.30 in Chapmanslade but down the hill a mile away it fell to -15C ! Real cold pools of air in low areas. I even took a photo of the car dash as I didn't know the display went that low ! (-15C today and +37C in France last summer is quite a range for a car to work in) And before anybody says - my car is usually pretty much the same as my weather station at home so I do believe it.

Intensity of the ppn over Wales is increasing as expected. It looks to me like the low pulls away into France a lot slower on Wednesday. Certainly GFS has ppn over central southern England for most of the day.

Come on guys - it's all in the thread. See Ians post a few pages back showing predictions (raw output) at 3 hour intervals. Don't forget altitude will have a significant effect on ppn rates as well so places like Salisbury Plain likely to see more than lower areas

Come on - Ian is a busy man at a busy time and he answers your question about 4 posts above. Mmmm.. not sure my dreams are aligned with yours - You obviously don't work outside like I do. Significant Ice day here too with a max of -1.7C, already down to -3.5C at a reasonable altitude. 3C difference this morning as I drove down to Frome (-6C here, -9C in Frome) I posted earlier about the roads - salt / grit may well be outside it's working range because of the very low temperatures giving surface temps of maybe -15C. Do expect lots of ice on all roads even if the snow / sleet is light.

With correctly recorded air temps of -9C this morning the ground temperatures will be substatially lower and take the road salt / grit out of it's working range. It was largely dry this morning so not too many problems - it will be very different on Tuesday morning. -2.3C here at the moment which is going to be one of the coldest days since 1981/2 when I lived in the Chilterns particularly as it is bright sunshine