chapmanslade

Worth looking at the visible sat loop over East Anglia at the moment showing snow showers moving inland and leaving a trail of snow behind them http://www.sat24.com/frame.php?html=view&country=gb&sat=vis Also shows the snow cover nicely

very important point - the snowy week last Feb cost us around £20,000 in turnover which was never recovered.

Well it was a 50/50 prediction wasn't it ! It's really easy to make a prediction and claim brilliance when you fluke it right, compared to actually having to prove it and be judged on your predictions. Some people only 'pop up' when it suits them as well rather than having to do it every day. When your mortgage payments depend on your performance guess work goes out of the window. As has been pointed out the Met Office predictions were abused by the press offices and papers as well as dumbed down into simple terms that frankly didn't apply. Don't forget we have had 3 cold weeks in an otherwise mild and wet winter so far. Why do you use a pseudonym I wonder ? I do because for privacy reasons and because my comments on this forum don't matter. If I was serious about a particular field of study (and I am in another scientific area) then I use my real name as otherwise I would not be taken seriously. Just in case you are wondering this is NOT a personal attack on you, but a comment on the wider aspects of your post.

I think a lot of any snow we get over the next week or so will be down to 'showery troughs' and as such are very difficult to forecast. Even a few miles can make a huge difference. Variations in snow depth are a very clear demonstration of how precipitation rates and coverage differ over very small distances. With rain, the ground is just wet or not, and it is a lot less easy to see variations. Last Febs snow came from similar dynamics and with time can accumulate to significant depths. I recorded almost 30cm of level snow here in Feb with no melt between falls. I actually fear for the SE as accumulations there could cause significant problems - not just short lived this time either. I know snow can be exciting for some but I'm quite sure the novelty will wear off if you have to work outside like I do, or if you lose your electricity / water supplies and shops cannot get food deliveries. I really don't think many thought 1963 (of which I was a product - had to do something to keep warm !) and 1981 fun after a few days, and certainly dragging frozen dead animal corpses out of fields isn't much fun when you can't get to them to feed them. Be careful for what you wish young uns !

Because it is a weather forum populated on the whole by people who do understand the terminology. It comes down to the 'why don't you tell me in simple terms ?' when the answer is that it cannot be explained in simple terms. The answer to your question is maybe, depending on a lot of factors that if I were you I would have a go at finding out about - this is after all an ideal location. I'm afraid everything in life isn't simple - thank goodness !

It was not aimed at either of you two gentlemen

Further to Ian Fergusson's comments... This is not a response to any particular post. I completely agree with all he says and I'm afraid it comes down to a proper critical scientific education which few have or are interested in. It's easy to confuse a lucky guess with a proper reasoned scientific arguement and certainly when your job depends on accurate forecasting of anything you don't speak until you are confident of your arguement. Don't forget much of the weather is pretty mundane but is still important to somebody whether for financial or safety reasons. I appreciate a lot of the forum members are pretty young, but I am also frustrated by a lack of interest in really learning how to understand the weather - just wanting to know an answer all the time. It really shouldn't be 'will it snow ? Yes' more 'Will it snow ? - I'll find out how to answer my own question'. This forum is a tremendous resource with a lot of useful information - don't dumb it down to the level of the old BBC weather forum that was peurile in the extreme. Then again some of the worst offenders seem unable to string a sentence together so probably will wonder what I'm rambling on about !

Erm are you not missing the point also ? I personally don't want a snow fest as I work outside and my income would be affected. I read and post on the model thread in order to work out what the weather is going to do next. It matters nought what the end result is as long as the models / predictions are accurate.

I've posted last night's ensembles again for the south together with tonights for Wiltshire which nicely demonstrate the vanishing 'hump'! Virtually no support for the warmer hump in the 850's that had almost total support a few days ago - for this reason anything more than 5 days away really is to be taken with a pinch of salt and isn't worth argueing over !

This is the interesting bit. The kick in the ensembles middle of next week is where the answer is regarding snow in the south. When it first appeared a few days ago virtually all members showed the brief rise. As time goes by less and less do (the 06z OP didn't but the 12z OP does) Some of the ensemble runs would bring significant snowfall to the south - some none at all. I suspect we will not know the answer until the day it happens as the distances involved may be as little as 25 miles for rain / snow which no models can manage at this range, never mind on the day. Incidentally my Brother-in-law is near Loch Ness at the moment and the locals reckon it's the deepest snow for years - good powder too.

There is a good resevoir of cold in the ground so although the air temperature here is 1.2C the ground is still frozen and recent rain has turned to ice. Just gritted here so should be OK in the morning on the main roads.

It does seem that the colder synoptics are actually happening rather than staying in FI never to occur in reality. I'd have to say the snowfall so far has been localised and moderate - if we get a proper frontal snow event which we are being tempted by in the models many people will simply not know what to do. Even with 'Global warming' a severe snowstorm event will occur, just not very often. This winter does have a real feeling of 81/82 about it. I posted this link last week - for those that missed it ... http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=6681&start=1

I'm a little surprised by how low you are getting. The other morning when you recorded -9C I only got -2C and Frome was -5C (cold pooling). Where is you thermometer located ? It should be 2m off the surface and away from buildings etc. If it is too low (say 1m) it will make a surprising difference.

The models were spot on as far as I can see and I couldn't see 'sleet showers / sunny spells' on any charts ! I wouldn't even bother looking at newspaper forecasts as they are mostly dumbed down tosh.

You really need to read your posts before you send them - it's jiberish mate ! Try some punctuation ! Tonight is a really difficult call - it will be cold enough aloft and also at ground level for snow but there is a shallow warm layer of air that is the problem being dragged in ahead of the front. This is around +4C so may result in sub zero rainfall at ground level. As the cold air behind the front digs in it will turn to snow, but when and how much will be down to nowcasting. The further east you are the better, altitude may not help that much as the warmer layer is elevated. I just hope it isn't freezing rain as that is incredibly dangerous for anybody out and about.

The forecasts on the BBC and Met Office website were spot on, and it snowed pretty much exactly where predicted. I don't know what forecasts you were looking at but nobody has been predicting sleet / snow all this week. In fact somebody was moaning a few days ago that Richard Angwin wasn't mentioning snow when in their opinion a national emergency should be declared - turned out he was right ! Don't confuse forecasting with hopecasting !

I posted a link a year or two back on the winter extremes of 1981/2 but sadly the link is dead now There is an analysis on another forum here http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=6681&start=1 Great newspaper extracts later in the thread

Have a look at the raintoday radar animation and you will see where it is. The place to avoid is at the centre of one of the small bowed areas (LEWP) unless you like seeing your fence fall down ! The gaps between them are less windy as has been reported by a user on another forum at Lands End which missed the bows to the North and South. The animation clearly shows these 'bows' running along the squall line. http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Interesting breaks in the line forming like waves which are LEWP as far as I understand separated by small mesocyclones along the squall line ??

I'm really pleased to see Ian posting on here as it gives us an extra dimension to our discussions. I was also delighted that Richard Angwin mention on his lunchtime forecast that tonight's front is an ANA cold front. This level of information is great for those interested in the subject and to be honest will fly well above the head of the majority and go un-noticed. My interest in the weather was kindled by Francis Wilson in the 80's who was at the BBC at the time and always gave 'a little bit extra' in his forecasts for those who wanted to listen. Three cheers the for the BBC ! Even Horizon seems to be back to it's old self again recently !

I agree, as well as later in the week. The really big events are usually small scale rapid cyclogenesis spinning off a dominant low pressure. Next week looks windy from time to time but not really stormy in my opinion.

Not wishing to prolong this debate much longer but BBC and Met Office were describing the storm yesterday as a 1 in 3 year event for the south on Thursday. It was a significant storm for the southern counties, and certainly nothing here of that magnitude for a while. It was just a moderately bad winter storm, nothing more, nothing less.

I think best described as thundery showers spreading over the south tonight, strongest near the coasts where SST's give convection an extra bit of ooomph.

I reckon that is a bit of an overestimate ! Even on the south coast they are only managing 50mph at the moment in the gusts. Gatwick only reporting gusts to 35mph Wind easing as expected in the SW once the cold front has gone through. Marathon Gas platform showing first signs of the 'second wave' associated with the trough line. The most severe gusts will be associated with the convective showers.

Well I'm not Nick - but yes it is, most likely off shore though in the Channel I reckon.