PersianPaladin
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Posts posted by PersianPaladin
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48 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:
And you trust the GFS not a chance I'm staying well away from the GFS I'm sticking with ukmo and ecm.
Trusting GFS past the T192 mark is sort of like trusting Sauron's Ring Of Power. The ring must be destroyed!
Meanwhile, tonight temps could get as low as -9C in parts of England. Let's not forget that there is substantial cold not too far away.
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15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
Really! Lets hope that's not repeated.I can't remember what drama that was over, easterly by any chance?
I was there, Nick. I was there on that fateful night in the wee small hours when the 00z came out. The Fat Lady was finally untied from her chair thanks to that "poxxing short wave" (in Steve Murr's words) which showed up in exactly the wrong place. Seemingly out of nowhere.
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13 minutes ago, Catacol said:
Ummm - are you grinning right now?? Even the most die hard Amis are fully aware that their model leaves a lot to be desired when compared to their Euro rivals....
Having said that - GFS has a habit in my opinion of picking up on trends at the extended range when the other models struggle. The specifics will never be the same when T+0 comes around... but be careful not to ignore GFS trends at 240 - 300h and from this perspective your respect for GFS has some weight.
Will be very interested to see the clusters later on. Would also very much like to see a UK +192 chart because I suspect those wringing their hands right now about that 144 chart might feel a bit better...
Those of you who have been following the Model Diagnostics Discussions on NOAA for several days and weeks now - will realise that there isn't really a preference for the Euros within the short time-frame of T90. As far as the extended time-frame is concerned, its really too close to call. Though a model blend is usually preferred.
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Beast From The East........
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We actually have had snow grains falling already up here in parts of the North and North East. Some really interesting local variations produced by a mix of lower level wind flows and regional geomorphology. Its white enough outside to suggest a dusting of snow over here.
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06z....
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"INTERESTING" is the one word that does sum up the models of late. Certainly not boring, at least from the point of view of those interested in the technical side of weather prediction. There is a lot that can change, and within a surprisingly narrow time-frame.
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10 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:
GFS out to 120 has better amplification and more west/north than the 6z. Happy with that. That's all I want to see so far. Everything after that is so open to change and conjecture it's not worth studying too much!
Yup...the words dogs' + dinner came to mind.
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Latest model diagnostics discussions at NOAA seem to prefer the ECM solution for the development of the amplified upper trough out towards NE US/Canada and towards Greenland. Still some difficulty modelling the progression and orientation of that feature, which matters as far as our northerly shot is concerned.
QuoteUPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THU NEW ENGLAND COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING THU NIGHT ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 00Z NAM...12Z ECMWF...00Z CMC BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z GFS IS TOWARD THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSION...IMPACTING THE POSITION OF A SURFACE LOW WHICH DEEPENS RAPIDLY THU INTO FRI NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE PAST 2 CYCLES OF ENSEMBLE SCATTER LOW PLOTS HAVE SHOWN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM...12Z ECMWF...00Z CMC CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE ENSEMBLES. WHILE ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...THE 00Z ECMWF ADJUSTED A BIT STRONGER AND SOUTH/WEST WITH THE 12Z/30 LOW POSITION NEAR THE MAINE COAST. THIS SUPPORTS THE STRENGTH OF THE 00Z NAM...BUT GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE 00Z ECMWF FROM THE LATEST ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING BETWEEN CWSS AND BHB...ITS 12Z/26 RUN IS CONSIDERED MORE FAVORABLE.
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I think given the rather dynamic and changeable conditions even before T120, it would perhaps be worth easing up on the ramp rollercoaster...
Anyhoo, Camelot is quite a while away.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3dZl3yfGpc -
13 minutes ago, The Eagle said:
GFS + 6 hours, no massive changes so far.
Does one expect massive changes at that time-frame? lol
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The positioning of that high involves quite a small margin of error, and given the time-frame - expect quite a few runs before we can even have much in the way of confidence.The northerly is not what interests me at present, its the reloading pattern, the stability of the upper-wave pattern into Greenland, the extent of WAA, and all else besides. The pattern for that is yet to be made clear.
The ECM ensembles will be of great interest this evening.
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7 minutes ago, BARRY said:
lets see what the models look like in 2 days time been on this roller coaster for to many years
Yes, indeed. I think a toppler northerly is pretty much nailed-on, though its a question as to how quickly the trough ebbs away and is filled in by height rises from the west. 24hrs? 48?hrs I'm going for a slightly more extended toppler than yesterdays GFS charts were showing, as opposed to the previous ECM. What happens after that, with the High directly over the UK or slightly to the North of it; remains very much in the balance. But with significant cold trapped under that high, it could still produce some significant ice-days in some places.
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Yes, the 12z GFS really is the cold-pornographer out in FI at the T200+ plus mark. Though what that really suggests in terms of a significant change in upstream signal, remains to be seen.
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7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
6z upgrades the cold!
Better run with very cold air and snow showers filtering into N Scotland by the 2nd!
Yup, but as several others have said - its really what happens into the 2nd week of January that will more likely be of relevance. A little too much mobility hindering suitable jet amplification that can be sustained for more than 48 hours. More likely the ECM remains an outlier in the T120-144 timeframe and will correct itself in the next run.
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The signal so far for this winter period has been for an unstable and oft-amplified upper jet, though where that ends up and whether we get that mythical north-african descending arm; waits to be seen....
At T90 lies the first disturbance point where the northern-jet starts to begin to break off and send a little energy southward. At that same time we have a very complicated and dynamic picture of emerging shortwaves, ridges and other features. Changeable certainly, even before T126. But here's hoping...
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5 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
I am really surprised the UKMO is being dismissed by some... how many times in the past have we seen a cold spell forecast by the GFS only for the UKMO not to back it with the cold spell failing to materialise?
Dismiss the UKMO at your peril.
Latest NOAA long-term forecast discussions indicate the UKMO showing a competitive presence amongst the other models in terms of confidence, however, there is no clear model that is favoured at the moment. So frankly, the GFS could still win out in this scenario. But we don't know that yet...
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8 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:
GFS and UKMO are fairly similar in many ways but the main difference seems to be the UKMO is having the slider low that bit deeper therefore gives more room for error and helps to keep the high over the UK. GFS looks more like this morning's ECM where the slider low is not as deep and eventually fills(looks like a little bit of energy from that low heads towards SW England which would give cloudy, damp conditions) and the high eventually sinks.
Amazing one little feature could well make a the difference to the output going into the medium term but the GFS insistence of eventually having a mild SW'ly is a concern however if its wrong in the first part of the output then more than likely the SW'lies won't happen.
Yup, like I said before - the T144 time-frame is particularly messy and complex and will take a while to be resolved.
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The dreaded "slug", i.e. the Bartlett High is still very much in F.I at present. What happens after T144 is anybody's guess, given the highly complex picture present along with uncertainty as to how much that upper-jet energy increases and to what extent/orientation it bifurcates. For the time-being, expect some cold and settled blocking near or over the UK.
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Looks like north-east england, at least my neck of the woods anyway - will be getting sloppy-seconds of heavy rain with the odd rumble if lucky.
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Very loud rumble outside here
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I only support giving them names on two conditions: 1. That they don't sound like some senile old character from a british soap (Storm Desmond?), and 2. That the names be amusing and memorable (e.g. Storm Wilberforce The Wild, Bertha Bedlam, Horrid Hilda, Rick Astley etc)
https://storify.com/weatherchannel/twitter-offers-twc-rejected-names
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1 hour ago, Supacell said:
Northern Ireland not doing too badly either this evening.
Yes, and a lot of lightning flashes over there. Really has kicked off. The MetOffice did not forecast "thundery rain" there, so they got it wrong.
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Up here in the north-east of England - namely County Durham, there have been at least a couple of occasions this year with some decent storm activity. None of them occuring in my area though, as per usual. There is a storm-shield or force-field around Durham City, keeping overhead lightning away. Doesn't matter how good conditions are regionally, you can guarantee that any cell from the west or the south-west will fizzle as it crosses here, or....INFURIATINGLY....weaken over me whilst strengthening on the western or eastern flank, or entirely weaken and then invigorate again once the drizzle and odd rumble have crossed over. I had a good mind to study the possible micro-climate factors that led to this continual block against storms, but got too depressed to bother. If however, a storm happens to encroach from the south-east (very rare mind), then it's sometimes impressive. But these usually happen outside summer.
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by PersianPaladin
Most of the warmer global temperatures are in the oceans and thus that impacts us in the UK given we're an island at the butt-end of all that extra energy supplied to the polar front. Cold anomalies off Greenland (ice melt?) and much warmer + anomalies south of Newfoundland make for a considerably disrupted jet pattern.