PersianPaladin
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Posts posted by PersianPaladin
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Or for those who ever took it seriously....
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The orientation of the upper flow has clearly not developed as expected by the models earlier on, and of particular note is the development of short-wave features just to the exit of the jet-streak north of the UK. These spoiler shortwaves can make a big difference, and very much are an inevitable part of the jet-evolution - thus preventing the development of heights to the west of Scandinavia. Still, their emergence can be entirely unexpected thus demonstrating the chaotic and contingent complexity separating conditions at 300hpa down to 500hpa and below. We've seen these sort of shortwaves ruin set-ups in winter, albeit they usually prop-up in different locations such as south of Sweden; thus cutting off the cold air advection to the UK. I remember one such feature, was a particular heart-breaker for us all.
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UKMO tends to perform poorly at its maximum-range. Albeit we are still on a knife-edge situation regardless.
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12z trundling out now, and its looking like a hot Wednesday and Thursday for much of England and Wales. Similar so far to 06z, albeit the heat-low south of Britain seems to be pegged back this time.
EDIT - Overall, a better run for WAA especially for central and southern England.
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Well, the usual UK form-horse has been "two hot days and a thunderstorm". So that's probably how it will pan out.
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34 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:
One of the straightest easterlies I've ever seen modelled by GEM. Imagine if this was January!!
A direct easterly is what some of the charts were previously showing for the culmination of this week. In other words, the much-hyped "heat-wave" by Piers Corbyn and co. going "t*ts up!" in a novel way. Mind you, that chart is beautiful. Just wrong time of the year.
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On 7/9/2016 at 07:53, Lettucing Gutted said:
It depends on what landmass is most affected by the cooling Atlantic. Because the cold pool is nearer to Greenland, the Polar Vortex and cold air has been confined to Greenland which in turn has made our winters milder and stormier than ever before. However if the Atlantic cold pool displaces or extends towards Scandinavia, the Polar Vortex and cold air will centre over there which will make our winters colder and snowy.
Are the dynamic relationships really that simple? I'm not sure.
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On 7/22/2016 at 23:18, iapennell said:
There is an effect on the atmosphere caused by full moons (similar at new moons) in similar fashion to the manner in which the new and full moon causes tides. At these times the gravitational impacts of sun and moon combine to cause the atmosphere to pile up in locations facing the Sun and moon directly. The combined frictional impact due to the rotating Earth will be such as to slow the eastwards angular momentum of the atmosphere. As with marine tidal friction the effect is very small but it could account for some of the statistically significant weather associated with full and new moons.
If the global atmosphere loses Westerly momentum a little at full or new moon there is liable to be more of the weather associated with weaker westerlies reaching Britain: In summer that means more in the way of hot sunny weather can occur whilst in autumn and winter this increases the likelihood of settled weather bringing night frosts and fog.
However the effect must be very small. It is estimated that the effect of marine and atmospheric tidal friction caused by the Sun and moon would take something like 1.5 billion years to slow the Earth's rotation by just half. It is therefore likely as not that full or new moons and atmospheric tides have no significant impact on the British weather at all!
That's very interesting. Is there any scientific literature or meteorological sources that might expand on this?
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Bog standard fare really for the north-east. But each day has its own interesting characteristics regardless of insufficient heat or sun, and that's why (bottomline) we're weather enthusiasts.
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4 minutes ago, Supacell said:
Latest BBC forecast on News24 much more hopeful for thunderstorms with Chris Fawkes really ramping up the severity of them.
He's a known ramper.
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1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:
Not a big fan of the forecaster to begin with but the graphics have shown a shift to a less thundery Wednesday however I would not be surprised if things were totally different again by tomorrow morning's forecast.
Of course, if things do go not according to plan, it would be nice too have some sort of explanation to it but I somehow doubt that would be the case.
At the moment, all the action is on the extreme tip of North Western Ireland and more scattered across SW Scotland, so kind of going to forecast so far that being said. Looks like all the CAPE is out in the Atlantic with those bright echos, hopefully radar echoes like those can be repeated around these shores! Its all a bit of a waiting game at the moment.
Contradicts the latest GFS anyway. Are they going by the latest FAX charts or now-casting?
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Jay Wynne's latest BBC weather forecast mentioned absolutely nothing about any thunder storms across England tommorow. In direct contradiction with the local forecast a few hours earlier. WTF?
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I got up at 6am and suddenly saw two bright flashes from outside, exactly like lightning. Strangely, there were no storm clouds in the sky at the time (broken cloud was present) and there was nothing on the radar indicating showers nearby. What on earth could it be I wonder?
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It's very interesting stuff. Until now, researchers basically have not been able to explain why clouds actually produce lightning because the strength of the electrical fields are an order of magnitude too weak. Processes such as run-away breakdown of cosmic rays as well as charged solar particles have been hypothesized but the whole process is still yet to be understood. The idea that clouds are given a significant amount of charge from space is pretty cool, I think - and perhaps we should thank the Russians for getting this area of research started.
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Interesting research. An excerpt from the article:-
Lead author of the research Dr Matt Owens said: “We’ve discovered that the Sun’s powerful magnetic field is having a big influence on UK lightning rates.
“The Sun’s magnetic field is like a bar magnet, so as the Sun rotates its magnetic field alternately points toward and away from the Earth, pulling the Earth’s own magnetic field one way and then another.â€
In their study, the researchers used satellite and Met Office data to show that between 2001 and 2006, the UK experienced a 50% increase in thunderstorms when the HMF (heliospheric magnetic field) pointed towards the Sun and away from Earth.
This change of direction can skew or ‘bend’ the Earth’s own magnetic field and the researchers believe that this could expose some regions of the upper atmosphere to more galactic cosmic rays—tiny particles from across the Universe accelerated to close to the speed of light by exploding stars.
“From our results, we propose that galactic cosmic rays are channelled to different locations around the globe, which can trigger lightning in already charged-up thunderclouds. The changes to our magnetic field could also make thunderstorms more likely by acting like an extra battery in the atmospheric electric circuit, helping to further ‘charge up’ clouds,†Dr Owens continued.
The results build on a previous study by University of Reading researchers, also published in Environmental Research Letters, which found an unexpected link between energetic particles from the Sun and lightning rates on Earth.
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Despite the MJO’s importance, global models often struggle to simulate the oscillation accurately. Researchers showed that MJO simulations are most sensitive to the existence of lower level heating in the atmosphere.
http://science.energy.gov/ber/highlights/2015/ber-2015-03-g/
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Judging by early reports of the damage, I'm wondering if it was at least a T6. More to come I suspect...
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33456741
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Warning....strong language...
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My home county of Durham made the national news, with very large hailstones damaging cars and homes. Shame I'm living abroad at present:-
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-33362433
This was from a lightning strike in Newcastle:-
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Cold front is producing some pretty heavy showers in a line up from around Bristol to south-west Scotland. Might be some isolated thundery downpours in the north pennine region.
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If this is to do with old mining ventures, then how many more of these could plausibly appear in the next few years?
A 100ft sinkhole has appeared yards from a farmer's house in County Durham, north-east England.
The hole was discovered on Thursday morning and is so deep that the bottom cannot be seen at one end.
The chasm continues to grow and has prompted fears of a further collapse when forecasted heavy rains arrive.
John Hensby, 71, said the hole near his home could be linked to 19th-century iron or lead mining in the area, although he has not been able to find evidence of a shaft that may have collapsed.
"It is astonishing - if you could have heard the bangs, crashes and rumbles when it first happened you would understand how terrifying it was," he told The Daily Mail.
"My partner Sam had been walking one of our dogs when she found it on our land around 80 metres away from our house.
"The land is surrounded by a sheep farm and there are two or three around at the moment. If a sheep was to fall down the hole then that would be the end of it. It would be the same for our two dogs. You wouldn't be able to get to them or even see them."
Hensby said small holes have appeared in the area from time-to-time, but none as large as the current sinkhole have ever been seen before.
"Some council experts came to inspect the hole yesterday, but we are not sure what can be done," he added. "We are crossing our fingers it doesn't get much bigger, but it is approaching a public footpath now."
Last week, a giant mile-long crack in the ground appeared in a rural part of northern Mexico, prompting fears of an earthquake in the area.
Rafael Pacheco RodrÃguez, of the University of Sonora, said the eight-metre deep and five-metre wide crack could be the result of seismic activity or underground streams.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/massive-sinkhole-appears-county-durham-england-133045698.html
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Some interesting shower cells developing just off the coast of NE England earlier this morning. Most likely developing in conditions where the SST's are warmer than the air temperatures and thus generating initial lift (albeit most likely providing minimal contribution at this time of year), with sufficiently light winds not far off the coast and a wind-convergence zone powering the showers for a time, and then fading away.
EDIT - Some isolated heavy showers could develop in the NE this early afternoon albeit the window for this will be brief. No showers have been forecast by the METO.
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Some very heavy showers here in the Tyne&Wear region, with some flashes of lightning thrown in for good measure.
EDIT - Lagging upper trough to the east and lower-level wind convergence is keeping these showers going with further low-topped CB's going up. Very spring-like convective activity really.
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Here's the lake district forecast by the Met Office for today:-
Monday 18th AugustIt will be mostly dry with variable amounts of cloud, there may be some light rain showers on the central fells in the early morning though. These conditions are then expected to remain for most of the day. However there is a chance for some isolated showers in the afternoon, which are most likely to be on eastern fells. There will be some pleasant sunshine too though, although it will feel rather cool for the time of year.
Now, go and have a look at the rainfall radar from 10am onwards for the park. Talk about epic fail......
French thunderstorms "regenerating" after crossing the Channel
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
I've seen forecasters say this with respect to thunderstorms from France moving northwards and decaying over the Channel, only to sometimes regenerate over the surface of southern England. Yet, this occured at night when surely most of the insolation had gone? Or perhaps there is residual insolation, wind shear, etc? I'd love for the forecasters to stop and give a good explanation as to what exactly was behind that "regeneration". Whether it was a case of clusters of cells with generally weakening updraughts and strengthening downdraughts experiencing a change of dynamics when hitting the coast, acting as "seed" cells for other forms of convection, etc. There should be some case-studies of this.