Roger J Smith

Please note, I posted info in a new thread in the hurricane forum, about 2024 hurricane seasonal forecast contest on American Weather Forum inviting participation from net-weather and Ireland's equivalent (boards.ie weather forum), as we did last year ... but the forecasts will be collected in that part of Net-weather this time.

EWP is around 20 mm now, and looks set to add about 40 mm over next two weeks, to a total of 60 mm. With a week or so left in the month by then, EWP could end up in 80-100 mm range. CET will probably get into 13 to 14 range and stay close to it towards end of month.

As we did last year, Net-weather members are invited to enter a three-forum contest to predict the number of named storms as defined and counted by NOAA in calendar year 2024. Include any counted by contest entry deadline (so far count is zero). The entries go into a pool of American Weather Forum, Net-weather, and Boards.ie weather forum entries, tabulated on American Weather Forum. I will report on your progress in this thread, as the season unfolds. The 1st June deadline could be extended a few days if the situation is "dormant" and number of entries justifies an extension but it won't likely be more than a few days into June before the contest is closed to entries. 1991-2020 average is 14/7/3 but various experts are predicting counts near 22/11/5 so far, and these expert forecasts are included in the contest as markers (not affecting contest ranks). (Note: predict number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, the standard three element "count" for a tropical season). Good luck if you decide to enter.

I would guess 37 to 38 will be top UK reading in 2024, no real science involved, just a hunch. It will be in the upper third of all years but not quite a top ten per cent value. Will agree there's a chance of a higher reading given early April "heat" that spread into parts of southern and central Europe, think it was 29 C in Bavaria at one point.

Report on Consensus and Normals scoring Dec to Apr Consensus __________________________________________ 1991-2010 MON _ DEC ___ JAN ___ FEB ___ MAR ___ APR ___avg-abs ______ MON _ DEC ___ JAN ___FEB ___MAR ___APR ___avg-abs CET ___ 4.8 ___ 4.2 ___ 5.7 ___ 7.2 ___ 9.4 _____ -- -- _____________ CET ___ 4.8 ___ 4.7 ___ 5.0 ___ 7.0 ____ 9.0 _____ -- -- ___ Error _ -2.2 ___-0.5 ___-2.1 ___-0.9 ___-0.2 ____ 1.18 ____________ Error __-2.2 ___ 0.0 ___-2.8___-1.1 ___ -0.6 _____ 1.34 ___ rank __ 29 ____ 14 ____ 28 ____ 25 ____ 12 _____23.6 ____________ Rank __ 29 ____ 01 ____ 44 ____ 40 ___ 30 _____28.8 ___ (ent) __ 59 ____ 68 ____ 61 ____ 54 ____ 59 _____60.2 _____________(ent) __ 59 ____ 68 ____ 61 ____ 54 ___ 59 _____ 60.2 ___ EWP __ 88.0 __ 81.0 __ 75.0 __ 78.0 __ 96.5 ___ -- -- ______________ EWP __103.6 __ 94.2 __ 72.4 __ 65.4 __ 63.2 ___ -- -- ___ Error _-73.3 __-16.2 __ -76.3 __ 33.5 __+1.1 ___ 40.2 _____________ Error _ -57.7 __ -3.0 ___-78.9 __-46.1 __-32.2 __ 43.6 rank __ 27.0 __ 25.0 __ 28.0 __ 27.0 ___ 2.0 ___ 21.8 ______________Rank __ 19.3 ___5.8 ___ 33.4 __ 41.2 ___ 42.9 __ 28.5 (ent) ___ 53 ____ 63 ____ 56 ____ 49 ____ 53 ____54.8______________ (ent) ___ 53 ____ 63 ____ 56 ____ 49 ____ 53 ____54.8 1993-2022 (Dec) 1994-2023 (Jan -Apr) ___________ 1981-2010 MON _ DEC ___ JAN ___ FEB ___ MAR ___ APR __avg-abs ________ MON _ DEC ___ JAN ___ FEB ___ MAR ___ APR __avg-abs CET ____ 4.9 ___ 4.7 ___ 5.2 ___ 7.0 ___ 8.9 _____ -- -- _____________ CET ___ 4.5 ___ 4.4 ___ 4.4 ___ 6.6 ___ 8.5 _____ -- -- ___ Error__ -2.1 ___0.0 ___-2.6 ___ -1.1 ___ -0.7 _____ 1.30 ____________Error__-2.2 ___-0.3 ___-3.4 ___-1.5 ___-1.1_____ 1.70 __ rank ___ 27 ____ 01 ____ 41 ____ 40 ____ 31 _____ 32.0 ____________Rank __ 32 ___ 8.0 ___ 53 ____ 43 ____ 42 _____ 35.6 __ (ent) ___ 59 ____ 68 ____ 61 ____ 54 ____ 59 _____ 60.2 ___________ (ent) ___ 59 ____ 68 ___ 61 ____ 54 ___ 59 _____ 60.2 __ EWP __ 106.3 __ 81.0 __ 75.0 __ 67.3 __ 59.2 ___ -- -- __________EWP ___ 97.4 __ 93.0 __66.5 __ 71.5 __ 64.8 ___ -- -- __ Error _ -55.0 __ -16.2 __ 29.0 __-44.2 __-36.2 ___ 35.1 ________ Error __-63.9 ___ -4.2 __-31.6 __-40.0 __-30.6 ___38.1 __ rank ___17.6 ___25.0 ___28.0 ___27.0 ___49.1 ___29.3 ________ Rank __ 22.4 ___ 5.8 ___ 37.0 __ 36.2 ___ 42.1 ___28.7 __ (ent) __ 53 _____ 63 ____ 56 _____ 49 ____ 53 ____ 54.8 ________ (ent) ___ 53 _____ 63 ____ 56 ____ 49 ____ 53 ____ 54.8 __ ============= notes: For CET, so far all robot forecasts are below actual values, so average absolute is also bias (negative). Our consensus is doing a bit better than the three recent normals, mostly due to a superior outcome in March. January saw the normals doing better, but the other three months are slight advantages for consensus. A strategy of recent 30-yr average plus 1.3 C would result in an average error of 0.84 C and a top ten position in contest. For EWP, all results are below actual values, and once again average absolute is also bias (negative). 1981-2010 was slightly ahead of other robots until our consensus surged in front in April. Best EWP strategy is to predict about 50% above recent average values, taking 150% of 1991-2020 would give an average error of 14 mm, well ahead of first place in contest.

Note in table on page 3, 2008 was ahead of all other years for running CET values 10-14th and was at 15.2 on 12th. Seem to recall a few wet days when the pattern changed from very warm to near average as cooler second half dragged final value down into low 13s.

EWP scoring for contest year and April (final value 95.4 mm) In tables below, first rank is current contest rank, second rank was rank after March. Same logic applies towards end of row to average error ranks. Everyone participating so far is given "consensus + 5 mm" errors for months they do not enter. In this case, consensus+5 is 1.1+5 = 6.1. Winter results (Dec to Feb) are listed at end of row in [ rank ] square brackets -- first is rank of points, second is rank of avg error for winter season. Also in your scoring line, your forecast is followed by a rank based on result of 95.4 mm. This rank is your scoring level before late penalties. As you may already know, late forecasts are docked 0.30 points per late day (indicated in table below by ^ symbol). Identical forecasts are scored one-half scoring interval lower for each, so if you're in rank seven but identical forecast to rank six, your scoring level is actually 6.5 not 7 (etc for 3+ duplicates). Otherwise with 53 forecasts the scoring interval is 0.19 (10.00 to 0.12) allowing for a downward adjustment for wrong sign errors and range errors. (It is very similar to CET scoring except instead of getting extra points for accuracy, you lose extra points for inaccuracy, but the math works out similar). Ranks ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Apr _TOTAL _______ Apr ___ Avg ______________________________ [points, avg err] now (Mar)_fcst (rank)_FORECASTER ________ EWP scoring (pts) __ error__ avg 5mo (Ranks, now and after Mar) __ [winter] _01 _ 07 ___ 95.0 (01) __ Feb1991blizzard_____10.00 __ 36.22 ______0.4 __ 31.30 mm _ 5 _ (8) ... ... [9, 9] ___ _02 _ 02 ___111.0 (28) __ summer18 ___________4.87 __ 34.86 ____ 15.6 __ 29.26 mm _ 2 _ (2) ... ... [3, 2] ___ _03 _ 01 ___ 78.0 (31) __ Jeff C _________________ 4.30 __ 34.76 _____17.4 __ 33.70 mm _ 7 _ (t4) ... ... [2, 8] ___ _04 _ 10 ___ 97.0 (05) __Mr Maunder __________ 9.33 ___34.68 _____ 1.6 __ 37.54 mm_ 13_ (26) ... ... [23, 33] ___ _05 _ 04 ___111.0 (29) __ DR(S)NO _____________4.77 __ 34.13 _____ 15.6 __ 34.54 mm_ 8 _ (t9) ... ... [10,15] ___ _06 _ 18 ___ 94.0 (02) __ February1978 ________ 9.81 __ 32.78 ______1.4 __ 35.10 mm_ 9 _ (18) ... ... [11, 11] ___ _07 _ 03 ___ 67.0 (41) __ Weather26 ___________ 2.40 __ 32.30 _____28.4 __ 37.78 mm _15 _ (12) ... ... [5,16] ___ _08 _ 05 ___ 75.0 (35) __ J 10 ___________________3.54 __ 32.13 _____ 20.4 __ 33.42 mm _ 6 _ (6) ... ... [4, 6] ___ _09 _ 17 ___100.0 (08) __ methuselah __________8.67 __ 31.90 _____ 4.6 __ 39.26 mm _ 22_ (27) ... ... [20, 28] ___ _10 _ 12 ___ 85.5 (18) __ Polar Gael ____________ 6.77 __ 31.67 _____ 9.9 __ 38.62 mm_ 20 _(23) ... [25, 31] ___ (10.5)(21.8) _96.5 (24) ____ Consensus_________ 9.81 __ 30.58 _____ 1.1 __ 40.04 mm_23.0_(32.5) ... [22.7, 30.5] _11 _ 14 ___110.0 (26) __ Frigid ________________ 5.43 __ 29.48 _____14.6 __ 28.74 mm _ 1_ (1) ... ... .. [7, 1] ___ _12 _ 06 ___130.0 (44) __ Emmett Garland _____1.80 __ 28.87 _____ 34.6 __ 41.14 mm_ 27_ (17) ... ...[17,23] ___ _13 _ 19 ___108.0 (23) __Metwatch _____________5.82 __ 28.68 _____12.6 __ 36.67 mm_ 11_ (15) ... ... [14, 13] ___ _14 _ 09 ___ 70.0 (39)__ virtualsphere _________ 2.59 __ 28.11 _____ 25.4 __ 36.62 mm _10 _ (11) ... ... [24, 22] ___ _15 _ 21 ___ 84.0 (20) __ dancerwithwings _____ 6.39 __ 27.90 _____11.4 __ 44.10 mm_t44_(t39) ... ... [21, 36] ___ _16 _ 08 ___127.0 (43) __ snowray ______________2.00 __ 27.71 _____ 31.6 __37.74 mm _14 _ (t9) ... ... [13, 12] ___ _17 _ 16 ___ 77.0 (34) __ godber 1 ______________3.82 __ 27.46 _____18.4 __ 37.30 mm _12 _ (14) ... ... [6, 5] ___ _18 _ 35 ___ 97.0 (04) __ Mulzy _________________ 9.43 __ 26.42 _____ 1.6 __ 43.94 mm_ 42_ (47) ... ... [32, t46] ___ _19 _ 23 ___110.0 (27) __ jonboy _______________ 5.33 __ 26.27 _____14.6 __ 43.26 mm_ 34 _ (35) ... ... [18, t26] ___ _20 _ 33 ___ 91.0 (07) __ rwtwm _________________8.86 __ 25.98 ______4.4 __ 44.10 mm_ t44_ (46) ... ... [38, 52] ___ _21 _ 15 ___125.0 (42)^__ Don _________________ 1.90^__25.84 _____ 29.6 __ 38.14 mm _16_ (13) ... ... [8, 7] ___ _22 _ 11 ___ 45.0 (51) __ stewfox ______________ 0.40 __ 25.46 _____ 50.4 __ 38.46 mm _t17 _ (3) ... ... [16, 4] ___ _23 _ 26 ___110.0 (25) __ WYorksWeather ______5.53 __ 25.45 _____ 14.6 __ 43.38 mm_ 35 _ (36) ... .. [12, 17] ___ _24 _ 31 ___104.0 (17) __ Stationary Front ______6.96 ___25.29 _____ 8.6 __ 46.34 mm_ 56 _(t51) ... ... [47, 61] ___ _25 _ 27 ___110.0 (24) __ Addicks Fan 1981 _____5.63 __ 25.14 _____14.6 __ 38.46 mm _t17_ (20) ... .. [40, t26] ___ _26 _ 34 ___ 90.0 (13) __ weatherforducks ______7.90 ___24.93 _____ 5.4 __ 40.70 mm_ 26 _ (32) ... ... [44, 38] ___ (26.1)_(16.4)_59.2 (46.1)__1994-2023 average__1.38 ___24.87_____36.2 __42.78 mm _30.9_(20.0) ... [6.6,12.2] __ _27 _ 13 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ noname_weather ____ --- --- __ 24.41 _____(6.1) __ 30.64 mm _ 4 _ (7) ... ... [ 1, 3 ] ___ (27.7)(20.4)_ 63.2 (42.9)__1991-2020 average__ 2.02 _ 23.97 ____32.2 __ 43.54 mm_ 37.1 _(24.4) ... [11.4, 14.9] __ _28 _ 24 ___ 74.0 (37) __ Reef ___________________ 3.16 __ 23.78 ____21.4 __ 43.62 mm_ 38 _(t30) ... ... [22, 29] ___ _29 _ 20 ___133.0 (48)__I remember Atlantic252__ 1.00 __ 23.77 ____37.6 __ 43.46 mm_ 37_ (22) ... ... [19, 18] ___ (29.9)(21.2) _64.8 (42.1) _ 1981-2010 average _ 2.18__ 23.40 ____30.6 __ 44.66 mm_44.3_(27.3) ... [17.6, 22.8] _30 _ 29 ___112.0 (30) __chilly milly ______________4.49 __ 23.34 ____ 16.6 __ 38.54 mm_19_ (19) ... ... [15, 14] ___ _31 _ 28 ___113.0 (32) __ Midlands Ice Age ______ 4.09 __ 23.29 ____ 17.6 __ 43.66 mm_ 39_(34) ... ... [37, 41] ___ _32 _ 37 ___107.0 (21)^__seaside60 _____________ 5.90^__21.90 ____ 11.6 __ 45.34 mm _ 49_ (t43) ... ... [43, t54] __ _33 _ 22 ___135.0 (49) __ Let It Snow! ____________ 0.80 __ 21.55 ____ 39.6 __ 42.14 mm_ 30_ (16) ... ... [30,t20] ___ _34 _ 40 ___ 87.0 (16)^__davehsug ______________ 6.85^__ 21.47 _____ 8.4 __ 46.30 mm_ 55_ (t51) ... ... [34, 43] ___ _35 _ 32 ___115.7 (36) __ Roger J Smith __________3.35 __ 20.91 ____ 20.3 __ 43.14 mm_ 32 _ (29) ... ... [33, 29] ___ _36 _ 25 ___ ( --- ) ( -- ) __ SteveB _________________ --- ---__ 20.26 _____(6.1)__ 43.44 mm_ 36 _ (42) ... ... [35, 58 ] ___ _37 _ 46 ___ 89.0 (15) __ daniel* ________________ 7.43 ___18.68 _____ 6.4 __ 51.50 mm_ 67 _ (67) ... ... [42, 60] ___ _38 _ 32 ___ ( --- ) ( -- ) __ SLEETY _________________ --- ---__18.36 _____(6.1) __ 30.44 mm _ 3 _ (t4) ... ... [45, 10] ___ _39 _ 48 ___100.0 (10) __ syed2878 ______________ 8.47 __18.34 ______ 4.6 __ 60.14 mm_ 76 _ (73) ... ... [72, 73] ___ _40 _ 38 ___ 70.0 (40) __ The PIT _________________2.49 __ 18.07 _____25.4 __ 52.30 mm_ 68_ (62) ... ... [27, t48] ___ _41 _ 49 ___100.0 (09) __ Leo97t _________________ 8.57 __18.01 _____ 4.6 __ 55.14 mm _ 72 _ (69) ... ... [50, 67] ___ _42 _ 36 ___ 53.0 (50) ___ summer blizzard ______0.64 __ 17.58 _____ 42.4 __ 53.10 mm _ 69_ (t51) ... ... [28, 51] ___ _43 _ 39 ___130.0 (45) __summer8906 ___________1.70 __16.33 _____ 34.6 __ 48.74 mm_ 63 _(t39) ... [41, 37] ___ (43.8)(40.5)_58.4 (46.9) __average of all data ____ 1.22 __ 15.65 _____37.0 __ 51.30 mm _66.8_ (47.3) ... [25.9, 34.8] _ _44 _ 41 ___131.8 (47) __KirkcaldyWeather ______ 1.20 __15.42 _____ 36.4 __ 44.82 mm _48 _ (24) ... ... [26, 19] ___ _45 _ 53 ___ 89.0 (14) __ Weather Observer ______7.53 __15.21 ______ 6.4 __ 55.62 mm_ 73 _ (70) ... ... [57, 69] ___ _46 _ 42 ___ --- --- (---) __ ScottD _________________ --- ---__ 13.42 ____ (6.1) __ 40.56 mm _ 25_ (t30) ... ... [29, 25] ___ _47 _ 43 ___ --- --- (---) __ moorlander ___________ --- --- __ 13.13 ____ (6.1) __ 40.04 mm_ 23 _ (28) ... ... [31, 24] ___ _48 _ 45 ___ 60.1 (46) __ Bobd29 ________________ 1.39 __13.07 _____ 35.3 __ 56.46 mm _74 _ (66) ... ... [48, 65] ___ _49 _ 55 ___ 85.0 (19) __ Matt Stoke ______________ 6.58 __12.88 ____ 10.4 __ 43.90 mm_t40 _(t39) ... ... [52, 34] ___ _50 _(50) __120.0 (38) _ B87 _____________________ 2.97 __ 12.37 _____24.6 __ 40.52 mm_ 24 _ (21) ....... ( -- -- ) ___ _51 _ 44 ___ --- --- ( --- ) _ prolongedSnowLover __ --- ---__ 12.30 ____ (6.1) __ 38.84 mm _21 _ (25) ... ... [36,t20] ___ _52 _ 56 ___ 83.0 (22) __ summer shower ________6.01 __12.26 _____12.4 __ 63.06 mm_ 77 _ (74) ... ... [53, 70] ___ _53 _ 47 __ -- -- ( --- ) __ Somerset girl ____________ --- ---__ 11.18 ____(6.1) __ 48.04 mm_ 62 _ (61) ... ... [39, 59] ___ _54 _(---) ___ 96.5 (03) __ Thomas Green __________ 9.61 __ 9.61 ____ 1.1 __ 43.22 mm _ 33 _ (---) ... ... first entry ___ _55 _ 51 ___ --- --- (---) __ Tillys ____________________--- --- ___ 9.14 ____(6.1) __ 41.24 mm _ 28_ (33) ... ... [46, 28] ___ _56 _(---) ___ 92.0 (06) __ Pulpstar _________________ 9.05 __ 9.05 _____3.4 __ 43.68 mm _ 39_ (---) ... ... first entry ___ _57 _ 52 ___ --- --- (---) __ John88b ________________--- --- __ 8.29 ____ (6.1) __ 45.84 mm _t53 _ (t51) ... ... [49, t48] ___ _58 _ 75 __ 90.0 (12) __ sunny_vale ________________8.00 __8.24 _____ 5.4 __ 47.72 mm_ 61_ (60) _ ... ... ( -- -- ) ___ _59 _(---) ___ 90.0 (11) __ Bluehedgehog074 ______ 8.10 __ 8.10 _____ 5.4 __ 44.08 mm _ 43_ (---) ... ... first entry ____ _60 _ 54 ___ --- --- (---) __ jmp223 __________________--- --- __ 7.08 ____ (6.1) __ 42.64 mm_ 31 _ (38) ... ... [51, 32] ___ _61 _ 70 ___ 77.0 (33) __ Neil N __________________ 3.92 __ 6.51 _____ 18.4 __ 66.70 mm _78 _ (75) ... ... [70, 72] ___ _62 _ 62 __ 40.0 (52) __ shillitocettwo _____________0.20 __ 5.44 _____55.4 __ 69.58 mm _79 _(72) ... ... [64, 71] ___ _63 _ 57 ___ --- --- (---) __ Wold Topper ____________ --- --- __ 6.18 ____ (6.1) __ 41.84 mm_ 29_ (37) ... ... [54, 30] ___ _64 _ 58 ___ --- --- (---) __ Shaunado _______________--- --- __ 5.64 _____(6.1) __ 50.58 mm_ 66_ (65) ... ... [55, 64] ___ _65 _ 59 ___ --- --- (---)__ summer of 95 ____________ -- -- __ 5.60 _____(6.1) __ 44.36 mm_ 47 _ (45) ... ... [56, 40] _66 _ 60 ___ --- --- (---) __ Rob79812010 ____________ -- -- __ 5.56 _____(6.1) __ 44.24 mm_ 46 _(t43) ... ... [58. 39] _67 _ 61 ___ --- --- (---) __ Earthshine _______________ -- -- __ 5.45 _____(6.1) __ 48.84 mm _ 64 _ (63) ... ... [59, 62] ___ _68 _ 63 ___ --- --- (---) __Wade ____________________ -- -- ___ 4.96 _____(6.1) __ 59.04 mm_ 75 _ (71) ... ... [73, 66] ___ _69 _ 64 ___ --- --- (---) __EastLancsRain ____________ -- -- __ 4.88 _____(6.1) __ 45.36 mm_ 50_ (48) ... ... [60, 44] ___ _70 _ 65 ___ --- --- (---) __harveyslugger ____________ -- -- __ 4.34 _____(6.1) __ 45.84 mm_t53_(t51) ... ... [61, t49] ___ _71 _ 66 ___ --- --- (---) __ Alexis J9 __________________ -- -- __ 3.99 _____(6.1) __ 45.44 mm_ 51_ (49) ... ... [62, 45] ___ _72 _ 67 __ --- --- (---) __ snowblind ________________ -- -- __ 3.67 _____(6.1) __ 45.68 mm _ 52_ (50) ... ... [63, t46] ___ _73 _ 68 __ --- --- (---) __sukayuonsensnow ________ -- -- __ 3.30 _____ (6.1) __ 46.84 mm_ 57 _ (56) ... ... [65, 53] ___ _74 _ 69 __ --- --- (---) __ Climate Man ______________ -- -- __ 2.90 _____(6.1) __ 47.24 mm_ t58_ (t57) ... ... [66, t54] ___ t75 _t71 __ --- --- (---) ___gazse9 ( -- ) _______________ -- -- __ 2.28 ____ (6.1) __ 47.24 mm_t58_ (t57) ... ... [t67, t54] ___ t75 _t71 __ --- --- (---) __ catbrainz __________________-- -- __ 2.28 ____ (6.1) __ 47.24 mm_ t58_ (t57) ... ... [t67, t54] ___ _77 _ 73 __ --- --- (---) __ Norrance _________________ -- -- __ 2.04 _____(6.1) __ 54.24 mm_ 70 _ (68) ... ... [69, 68] ___ _78 _ 74 __ --- --- (---) __ baddie ____________________--- ---__ 0.76 ____ (6.1) __ 49.38 mm_ 65_ (64) ... ... [71, 63] ___ _79 _ --- __153.0 (53) __ Met. ______________________ 0.00 __ 0.00 ____ 57.6 __ 54.52 mm_ 71_ (---) _ first entry ... ___ -------------------

EWP table value was 95.4 mm and it's likely that all tables (involving EWP scoring) will be confirmed with very minor adjustments. Once I get a chance to update EWP scoring I will move that table to end of discussion. The combined CET-EWP will stay where it was first posted a few days ago.

1833 got to its highest position of 15.6 by 24th and gradually fell back to 15.1. 1833 also set two daily records near 20C at mid-month. Apart from those, no really exceptional daily means. I take it from previous discussion actual average at recording site was higher than 15.1, it was some value 3.9 above 1961-90 average for same location near London? So probably closer to 16? (3.9 over possibly 12.1) It's all a bit confusing but I see the logic of adjusting that way. If CET was all one London (west) station now, it would (a) need a larger urban heat island correction of 1.0 to 1.5 and (b) in climate terms would likely be 1.0 to 1.5 higher, so you would need to take 2-3 off London averages nowadays to find a realistic analogue to CET.

1981-2010 CET May averages and extremes 1772-2023 DATE ____ AVG __ CUM AVG _______ MAX yr ___ MIN yr _______ Running CET extremes ___ 01 ___ 10.8 ___ 10.8 ________16.0 1990,2005 _ 4.2 1945 ___ 16.0 1990,2005_ 4.2 1945 ___ 02 ___ 10.4 ___ 10.6 __________ 16.4 1966 __ 3.8 1979 _____ 15.9 1966 ___ 4.1 1979 ___ 03 ___ 10.5 ___ 10.6 __________ 17.6 1990 __ 3.2 1877 _____ 16.4 1990 ___ 4.3 1979 ___ 04 ___ 10.3 ___ 10.5 __________ 18.0 1834 __ 3.2 1877 _____ 16.7 1990 ___ 4.3 1979 ___ 05 ___ 10.6 ___ 10.5 __________ 16.7 1800 __ 3.9 1979 _____ 16.4 1990 ___ 4.2 1979 ___ 06 ___ 11.0 ___ 10.6 __________ 18.6 1867 __ 4.4 1831 _____ 15.9 1990 ___ 4.5 1979 ___ 07 ___ 11.0 ___ 10.7 __________ 17.0 2018 __ 3.8 1879 _____ 15.2 1990 ___ 5.0 1979 (5.1 1782, 1877) ___ 08 ___ 10.9 ___ 10.7 __________ 17.7 2016 __ 3.1 1861 _____ 14.7 1995 ___ 5.2 1782 ___ 09 ___ 10.6 ___ 10.7 _______ 17.6 1945,2016 _ 5.1 1910 ___ 14.7 1800 ___ 5.6 1782 ___ 10 ___ 10.8 ___ 10.8 __________ 18.2 1959 __ 4.2 1879 ____ 14.7 2008 ___ 6.0 1782 ___ 11 ___ 11.1 ___ 10.8 __________ 18.7 2008 __ 4.1 1773 ____ 15.1 2008 ___ 6.2 1879 ___ 12 ___ 11.3 ___ 10.8 __________ 18.8 1945 __ 4.4 1816 ____ 15.2 2008 ___ 6.6 1782, 1879 ___ 13 ___ 11.6 ___ 10.9 __________ 17.4 1959 __ 5.1 1855 _____ 15.1 2008 ___ 6.7 1879 ___ 14 ___ 11.7 ___ 10.9 __________ 18.8 1992 __ 3.9 1839 _____ 14.9 2008 ___ 6.7 1902 ___ 15 ___ 11.7 ___ 11.0 __________ 20.0 1833 __ 4.3 1839 _____ 14.9 1833 ___ 6.8 1902 ___ 16 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.0 __________ 20.0 1808 __ 5.2 1996 _____ 15.2 1833 ___ 6.9 1902 ___ 17 ___ 11.3 ___ 11.0 __________ 19.7 1833 __ 3.6 1935 _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.1 1855, 1902 ___ 18 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.0 __________ 19.0 1952 __ 4.2 1872 _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.2 1855, 1902, 1996 ___ 19 ___ 11.8 ___ 11.1 __________ 20.3 1868 __ 5.3 1872 _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.2 1902, 1996 ___ 20 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.1 __________ 17.7 1916 __ 5.8 1894 _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.2 1902 ___ 21 ___ 12.1 ___ 11.2 __________ 18.8 1918 __ 5.7 1894 _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.3 1902 ___ 22 ___ 12.2 ___ 11.2 __________ 19.6 1918 __ 5.1 1867 _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.3 1902 ___ 23 ___ 12.8 ___ 11.3 __________ 19.5 1922 __ 5.0 1867 _____ 15.5 1833 ___ 7.6 1902 ___ 24 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.4 __________ 18.8 1953 __ 5.7 1867 _____ 15.5 1833 ___ 7.9 1902 ___ 25 ___ 12.4 ___ 11.4 __________ 20.9 1953 __ 6.5 1814 _____ 15.6 1833 ___ 8.0 1885 ___ 26 ___ 12.4 ___ 11.5 ________18.7 1784,2017__4.6 1821_____ 15.5 1833 ___ 8.1 1782, 1885 ___ 27 ___ 12.1 ___ 11.5 __________ 19.0 1788 __ 6.6 1984 _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 8.25 1782 ___ 28 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.5 __________ 20.6 1847 __ 6.3 1869 _____ 15.3 1833 ___ 8.5 1782, 1885, 1996 ___ 29 ___ 12.8 ___ 11.6 __________ 21.2 1780 __ 6.3 1869 _____ 15.2 1833 ___ 8.7 1782,1879,1902,1996 ___ 30 ___ 13.0 ___ 11.6 __________ 21.0 1944 __ 4.9 1807 _____ 15.1 1833 ___ 8.7 1817, 1902 ___ 31 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.7 __________ 20.5 1947 __ 6.4 1802 _____ 15.1 1833 ___ 8.7 1817# # 8.7 was lowest during daily data period but 1698 finished on 8.5 and 1740 on 8.6, these could have had lower running CET values at various points before 31st as well. ___________________________________________________________________________ 1991-2020 daily and cumulative CET values date _ mean __ cum ____ date _ mean __ cum ______ date _ mean __ cum ___ date _ mean _ cum 01 ___10.5 ___10.5 _____ 11 ___11.3 ___ 11.0 _____ 21 ___12.6 ___11.3 ____ 31 ___ 13.7 __ 11.9 02 ___10.5 ___10.5 _____ 12 ___11.3 ___ 11.0 _____ 22 ___12.8 ___11.4 ____ 03 ___10.4 ___10.5 _____ 13 ___11.4 ___ 11.0 _____ 23 ___13.0 ___11.5 ____ 04 ___10.2 ___10.4 _____ 14 ___11.4 ___ 11.1 _____ 24 ___13.5 ___11.6 ____ 05 ___10.7 ___10.5 _____ 15 ___11.3 ___ 11.1 _____ 25 ___12.8 ___11.6 ____ 06 ___11.2 ___10.6 _____ 16 ___11.4 ___ 11.1 _____ 26 ___13.0 ___11.6 ____ 07 ___11.7 ___10.7 _____ 17 ___11.4 ___ 11.1 _____ 27 ___13.1 ___11.7 ____ 08 ___11.5 ___10.8 _____ 18 ___11.7 ___ 11.1 _____ 28 ___13.2 ___11.8 ____ 09 ___11.3 ___10.9 _____ 19 ___12.2 ___ 11.2 _____ 29 ___13.2 ___11.8 ____ 10 ___11.4 ___10.9 _____ 20 ___12.5 ___ 11.2 _____ 30 ___13.5 ___ 11.9 ____ __________________________

EWP tracker ended up at 94.7 mm for month, would result in different scoring ranks for tied values using 95.0, but as we will get another possibly different final value on 5th, will provide final EWP scoring update then. CET scoring in table posted previously has been adjusted for 9.6 now.

Will edit table of CET rankings later (to 9.6 result), on road at present ... will look at EWP final tracker value also on 2nd.

Forecasts for May 2024 CET _ EWP __ Forecaster (Order of entry) ____ EWP in order 15.2 _ 48.0 __ shillitocettwo (7) _____________ 100.0 __ B87 14.3 _ 40.0 __ WYorksWeather (18) _________ 100.0__ Methuselah 48.0 14.3 _ 75.0 __ Matt Stoke (43) ________________ 93.5 __ Roger J Smith 14.2 _ 93.5 __ Roger J Smith (32) ______________89.0 __ summer 18 14.0 _ -- -- ___ Blue_Skies_do_I_see (29) _______85.0 __ stewfox 13.8 _ 65.0 __ Pulpstar (L1-2) _________________ 85.0 __ syed2878 13.7 _ 66.0 __ Let It Snow! (31) ________________ 80.0 __ I Remember Atlantic 252 13.6 _ 78.0 __ davehsug (37) __________________ 80.0 __ Don 13.5 _ 32.1 __ Polar Gael (4) ___________________ 79.8 __ Kirkcaldy Weather 13.4 _ 53.5 __ Metwatch (38) ___________________78.0 __ davehsug 13.4 _ 58.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard (48) ____________76.0 __ dancerwithwings 13.3 _ 21.0 __ Wade (35) ________________________75.0 __ sunny_vale 13.3 _ 45.0 __ Frigid (39, 15.5) ___________________75.0 __ The PIT 13.2 _ 72.0 __ Reef (30) __________________________75.0 __ Matt Stoke 13.2 _ 64.0 __ Emmett Garland (33) _____________ 73.0 __ virtualsphere 13.1 _ 72.0 __ Stationary Front (34) ______________73.0 __ Midlands Ice Age 13.1 _ 65.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (52, 5.5) ________72.0 __ Reef 13.1 _ 62.0 __ February1978 (55) ________________72.0 __ Stationary Front 13.0 _ 75.0 __ sunny_vale (19) ___________________ 72.0 __ seaside60 13.0 _ 53.0 __ topclass weather forecaster (27) __ 13.0 _ 50.0 __ weatherforducks (28) _____________ 70.0 __ catbrainz 13.0 _ 55.0 __ TwisterGirl81 (51) _________________ 70.0 __ Jeff C 12.9 _ 76.0 __ dancerwithwings (12) _____________ 70.0 __ DR(S)NO 12.9 _ -- -- ___ Mark Bayley (L-1) __________________ 69.0 __ chilly milly 12.9 _ 73.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (36) ______________68.0 __ Mr Maunder 12.9 _ 72.0 __ seaside60 (42) _____________________ 66.0 __ Let It Snow! 12.9 _ 80.0 __ Don (50) ___________________________ 66.0 __ Mulzy 12.8 _ 56.0 __ SteveB (1) __________________________65.1 __ 1994-2023 average 12.8 _ 70.0 __ Consensus _________________________65.0 __ Consensus 12.8 _ 51.0 __ rwtwm (21) ________________________ 65.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 12.8 _ 60.0 __ Daniel* (54) ________________________65.0 __ J 10 12.7 _100.0__ Methuselah (5) ____________________ 65.0 __ Pulpstar 12.7 _ 70.0 __ DR(S)NO (41) ______________________ 64.1 __ average all data 12.7 _ --- --- __ damianslaw (46) ___________________ 64.0 __ Emmett Garland 12.6 _ 59.0 __ jonboy (40) ________________________ 63.6 __ 1981-2010 average 12.5 _ 57.0 __ snowray (11) ______________________ 62.7 __ 1991-2020 average 12.5 _ 70.0 __ Jeff C (16) __________________________ 62.0 __ February1978 12.5 _ 75.0 __ The PIT (24) ________________________60.0 __ summer8906 12.5 _ 60.0 __ summer8906 (25) __________________60.0 __ Weather Observer 12.5 _ 68.0 __ Mr Maunder (53) ___________________60.0 __ daniel 12.5 _ 65.0 __ J 10 (56) ____________________________ 59.0 __ summer shower 12.4 _ 54.0 __ summer blizzard (10) ______________ 59.0 __ jonboy 12.4 _ -- -- ___ Typhoon John (15) _________________ 58.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard 12.3 _ 59.0 __ summer shower (47,18.5) _________ 57.0 __ snowray 12.2 _ 73.0 __ virtualsphere (17) _________________ 56.0 __ SteveB 12.1 _ 85.0 __ stewfox (20) _______________________ 55.0 __ TwisterGirl81 12.1 _ 66.0 __ Mulzy (49) _________________________ 54.0 __ summer blizzard 12.0 _ 50.0 __ Leo97t (13) ________________________ 53.5 __ Metwatch 11.9 _ 63.6 __ 1981-2010 average _______________ 53.0 __ topclass weather forecaster 11.9 _ 65.1 __ 1994-2023 average ________________52.8 __ bobd29 11.9 _ 85.0 __ syed2878 (23) _____________________ 51.0 __ rwtwm 11.9 _ -- -- ___ Summer Sun (26) __________________50.0 __ weatherforducks 11.9 _ 60.0 __ Weather Observer (44) ____________ 50.0 __ Leo97t 11.8 _ 70.0 __ catbrainz (3) _______________________ 48.0 __ shillitocettwo 11.8 _ 79.8 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (9) ______________45.0 __ Frigid 11.7 _ 63.6 __ 1981-2010 average ________________44.0 __ Neil N 11.7 _ 89.0 __ summer 18 (14) ____________________40.0 __ WYorksWeather 11.6 _ 52.8 __ bobd29 (8) _________________________ 32.1 __ Polar Gael 11.5 _ 44.0 __ Neil N (22) __________________________ 21.0 Wade 11.3 _ 80.0 __ I Remember Atlantic 252 (45) 11.2 _ 64.1 __ average of all data 11.1 _ -- -- ___ Kentish Man (57) 11.0 _ 69.0 __ chilly milly (6) 10.5 _100.0__ B87 (2) ========== 57 on time CET, 52 EWP (2 CET, 1 EWP late by 1d) _ 59 and 53 total.

Please note, I am on a road trip (in Utah and Nevada) and will not likely be able to produce a table of forecasts until around 0600h Wed 1st or possibly later. Data collected below will be edited out of post. Forecasts for May 2024 15.2 _ 48.0 __ shillitocettwo (7) 14.3 _ 40.0 __ WYorksWeather (21) 14.2 _ 93.5 __ Roger J Smith (35) 14.0 _ -- -- ___ Blue_Skies_do_I_see (32) 13.7 _ 66.0 __ Let It Snow! (34) 13.5 _ 32.1 __ Polar Gael (4) 13.3 _ 21.0 __ Wade (38) 13.2 _ 72.0 __ Reef (32) 13.2 _ 64.0 __ Emmett Garland (36) 13.1 _ 72.0 __ Stationary Front (37) 13.0 _ 75.0 __ sunny_vale (22) 13.0 _ 53.0 __ topclass weather forecaster (30) 13.0 _ 50.0 __ weatherforducks (31) 12.9 _ 76.0 __ dancerwithwings (12) 12.8 _ 56.0 __ SteveB (1) 12.8 _ 51.0 __ rwtwm (24) 12.7 _100.0__ Methuselah (5) 12.5 _ 57.0 __ snowray (11) 12.5 _ 70.0 __ Jeff C (17) 12.5 _ 75.0 __ The PIT (27) 12.5 _ 60.0 __ summer8906 (28) 12.4 _ 54.0 __ summer blizzard (10) 12.4 _ -- -- ___ Typhoon John (15) 12.2 _ 73.0 __ virtualsphere (19) 12.1 _ 85.0 __ stewfox (23) 12.0 _ 50.0 __ Leo97t (13) 11.9 _ 62.7 __ 1991-2020 average 11.9 _ 65.1 __ 1994-2023 average 11.9 _ 85.0 __ syed2878 (26) 11.9 _ -- -- ___ Summer Sun (29) 11.8 _ 70.0 __ catbrainz (3) 11.8 _ 79.8 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (9) 11.7 _ 63.6 __ 1981-2010 average 11.7 _ 89.0 __ summer 18 (14) 11.6 _ 52.8 __ bobd29 (8) 11.6 _ 65.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (18, 5.5) 11.5 _ 44.0 __ Neil N (25) 11.2 _ 64.1 __ average of all data 11.0 _ 69.0 __ chilly milly (6) 10.9 _ 59.0 __ summer shower (20) 10.8 _ 45.0 __ Frigid (16) 10.5 _100.0__ B87 (2)

I foresee another run at records, hoping this one sustains into second half ... 14.2 C and 93.5 mm be my call.

(Final) CET and EWP scoring reports, best combined rankings _ 9.6 C and 95.4 mm _ * Three late forecasts are ranked with scoring levels but combined ranks add 2. CET Rank _ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (Order of entry) ____ EWP rank _ combined (total ranks) _01 ___ 9.6 _ --- --- __ Blue_Skies_do_I_See (29) ______ ---- _02 ___ 9.6 _ --- --- __ damianslaw (43) _______________ ---- _03 ___ 9.6 _ 97.0 __ Mr Maunder (48) ________________ 5 ______ 8 _____ best combined _04 ___ 9.6 _108.0__ Metwatch (51) __________________23 _____ 27 _____t-5th best combined _05 ___ 9.5 _ 70.0 __ virtualsphere (10) ______________ 39 _____ 44 _____15th best combined _06 ___ 9.7 _ 45.0 __ stewfox (12) ____________________ 51 _____ 57 _07 ___ 9.7 _ 67.0 __ Weather 26 (14) ________________ 41 _____ 48 _____18th best combined _08 ___ 9.5 _100.0__ syed2878 (38) ___________________10 _____ 18 _____ 2nd best combined _09 ___ 9.5 _ 90.0 __ weatherforducks (42) ___________13 _____ 22 _____ 3rd best combined _10 ___ 9.7 _ --- --- __ Mark Bayley (44) _______________ ---- _11 ___ 9.5 _ 87.0 __ davehsug (L1-1) _________________16 _____ 29*____t-8th best combined (12) ___9.4 _ 96.5 __ consensus ________________________(3)_____ (15) ___ (2nd) _12 ___ 9.4 _135.0__ LetItSnow! (20) __________________49 _____ 61 _13 ___ 9.4 _110.0__ Frigid (24) _______________________26 _____ 39 _____12th best combined _14 ___ 9.8 _127.0__ snowray (31) ____________________43 _____ 57 _____ _15 ___ 9.4 _113.0__ Midlands Ice Age (45) ___________32 _____ 47 _____17th best combined _16 ___ 9.8 _ 89.0 __ Weather Observer (46) _________ 14 _____ 30 _____10th best combined _17 ___ 9.8 _107.0__ seaside60 (L1-2) ________________ 21 _____ 40*____13th best combined _18 ___ 9.3 _ 84.0 __ dancerwithwings ( 1 ) ___________20 _____ 38 _____11th best combined _19 ___ 9.3 _ 91.0 __ rwtwm (19) ______________________ 7 _____ 26 _____ 4th best combined _20 ___ 9.9 _130.0__ Emmett Garland (21) ___________ 44 _____ 64 _21 ___ 9.3 _125.0__ Don (L1-3) _______________________42 _____ 65* _22 ___ 9.2 _ 53.0 __ summer blizzard ( 9 ) ____________50 _____ 72 _23 ___ 9.2 _ 92.0 __ Pulpstar (28) ______________________6 _____ 29 _____t-8th best combined _24 ___ 9.2 _ 97.0 __ mulzy (41) ________________________ 4 _____ 28 _____7th best combined _25 ___10.0 _ 94.0 __ February1978 (54) _______________ 2 _____ 27 _____t-5th best combined _26 ___10.0 _ 75.0 __ J 10 (56) _________________________ 35 _____ 61 _27 ___10.1 _ --- ---__ Typhoon John ( 3 ) _______________--- _28 ___ 9.1 _ 60.1 __ Bobd29 ( 6 ) _____________________ 46 _____ 74 _29 ___10.1 _ --- ---__ Summer Sun (33) ________________--- (30) ___ 9.0 _ 63.2 __ average 1991-2020 _____________(42.9)__ (72.9) _30 ___10.2 _110.0__ Addicks Fan 1981 (26,2.5) _______24 _____ 51 _____t-19th best combined _31 ___ 9.0 _110.0__ jonboy (36) ______________________ 27 _____ 58 (31) ___ 8.9 _ 59.2 __ average 1994-2023 _____________(46.1)__(77.1) _32 ___10.3 _ 85.0 __ Matt Stoke (22) _________________ 19 _____ 51 _____t-19th best combined _33 ___10.4 _100.0__ Methuselah ( 7 ) _________________ 8 _____ 41 ____14th best combined _34 ___10.4 _110.0__ WYorksWeather (23) ____________25 _____ 59 _35 ___ 8.8 _ 74.0 __ Reef (37) ________________________ 37 _____ 72 _36 ___10.4 _111.0__ DR(S)NO (49) ___________________ 29 _____ 65 _37 ___10.4 _104.0__ Stationary Front (52) ___________ 17 _____ 54 ____t-24th best combined _38 ___ 8.8 _ 89.0 __ daniel* (55) _____________________ 15 _____ 53 ____t-21st best combined _39 ___10.5 _ 85.5 __ Polar Gael (32) _________________ 18 _____ 57 _40 ___ 8.6 _111.0__ summer 18 ( 8 ) _________________ 28 _____ 68 _41 ___10.6 _ 90.0 __ sunny_vale (33) _________________ 12 _____ 53 _____t-21st best combined (42) ___8.5 _ 64.8 __ average 1981-2010 _____________(42.1)__(84.1) _42 ___ 8.5 _ 90.0 __ Bluehedgehog074 (18) __________ 11 _____ 53 ____t-21st best combined _43 ___ 8.5 _130.0__ summer8906 (30) _______________ 45 _____ 88 _44 ___ 8.4 _ 77.0 __ Godber 1 (47) ____________________34 _____ 78 _45 ___11.0 _ 95.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard (50) _____________1 _____ 46 _____16th best combined _46 ___ 8.1 _ 78.0 __ Jeff C (11) ________________________ 31 _____ 77 _47 ___ 8.1 _133.0__ I Remember Atlantic252 (17) ____ 48 _____ 95 _48 ___ 8.0 _ 70.0 __ The_PIT (35) ______________________40 _____ 88 (49) ___8.0 _ 58.4 __ average all data _________________(46.9)___(75.9) _49 ___ 8.0 _ --- --- __ Kentish Man (53) ________________---- _50 ___ 7.9 _120.0 __ B87 ( 2 ) _________________________38 _____ 88 _51 ___ 7.9 _ 96.5 __ Thomas Green ( 5 ) ______________ 3 _____ 54 ____t-24th best combined _52 ___ 7.8 _ 83.0 __ SummerShower (13) ____________ 22 _____ 74 _53 ___ 7.8 _ 77.0 __ Neil N (25) _______________________33 _____ 88 _54 ___11.5 _115.7__ Roger J Smith (40) ______________ 36 _____ 90 _55 ___ 7.6 _131.8__ Kirkcaldy Weather (39) __________ 47 _____102 _56 ___ 7.5 _100.0__ Leo97t (16) _______________________ 9 _____ 65 _57 ___ 7.4 _ 40.0 __ shillitocettwo ( 4 ) _______________ 52 _____109 _58 ___ 7.2 _112.0__ chilly milly (15) __________________ 30 _____ 88 _59 ___ 7.1 _153.0__ Met. (27) ________________________ 53 _____112 ==============

That scoring table was posted 13 April and is around page 8 of thread ... will of course move it (adjusted) to current discussion at end of April ... Feb1991blizzard at 95.0 mm for April would take top score and also be in first place in annual just ahead of summer 18. Looks like I will be going on a non-scheduled storm chase, we have been in Las Vegas NV since Tuesday, sunny and around 30 C each day here, going for that again today but we are now leaving LV and driving n.e. into the Utah scenic portion of our planned trip and will be driving through a cold front around late afternoon east of St George UT so I hope to get some storm pics with scenic backdrops later on. Except for this passing front our 12 days down here look dry as a bone and it will gradually warm up again after this frontal passage gives us one rather cool day on Saturday (expecting 15-18 C where we will be going). It was a relatively wet winter and we are seeing a lot of cactus flowers as well as wildflowers in desert areas, very fortunate timing.

Just popping in, today's CET report by the way should be 9.8 to 25th (not 24th) ... EWP est 72 mm (was 68 to 24th) ... GFS current final value at least 95 mm as in our provisional scoring table (option 2 previously, I deleted option 1). Could nudge 100 or even 105. Will update around 2nd. Back to vacation, popping in again on 30 April I hope.

In scoring estimates already posted, I added 95 mm as an option below original 75 mm tables. Anyway just a preview. Will be on a break for about two weeks, some internet access but I won't be on line for most of ten days now to 30 April, any data questions etc may not be answered in usual prompt timing but I may get on briefly ... posted next contest already, and will try to get some of usual end of contest posts up on 1st before disappearing again for about five days on return portion of trip (going down to UT and AZ).

CET May averages and other statistics ___ table includes all CET values for the period 1981 to 2023 ... bold type, warmest third, italics middle third, underlined, coolest third of years ___ ___ ties indicated are in one decimal, table ranks are based on a second decimal ___ 21.2 ... warmest daily mean (29th, 1780) 20.0 ... 15th (1833) earliest 20.0 CET day. 15.1 ... warmest May (1833) 13.9 ... 2nd warmest May (1848) 13.8 ... t-3rd warmest Mays (1758, 1788) 13.7 ... 5th warmest May (1808) 13.6 ... t-6th warmest Mays (1727, 1992) 13.5 ... t-8th warmest Mays (1784, 1868, 1919, 1947) 13.4 ... t-12th warmest Mays 2008 (tied with 1726, 1952) 13.3 ... t-15th warmest Mays 1743, 1804, 1964, 2017, 2018 13.1 ... 1998, 2022 12.9 ... 1989, 1999 12.6 ... 1990, 2016 12.5 ... 2001, 2020, 2023 12.3 ... 2006, 2014 12.2 ... 2011 12.1 ... 2004, 2009 12.0 ... 2000, 2023 ... ... highest 30-year average (1989-2018) and 2001-2023 average 11.9 ... 1991-2020 (& 1994-2023) averages and 1988, 2007 11.8 ... 2002, 2012 11.7 ... 1981-2010 average 11.6 ... 1982, 1995 11.5 ... 1993, 1997 11.4 ... ... 1901-2000 average 11.3 ... 2005 .. 1971-2000 average, 1701-1800 average 11.2 ... 1981, 2019 (also 1980) ... 1961-1990 average, 1659-2023 average of all data (11.24) 11.1 ... ... 1801-1900 average 11.0 ... 1986 10.9 ... 1985 10.8 ... 2015 10.7 ... 1991, 1994, 2010 ... 1659-1700 average 10.6 ... ... ... lowest 30-year average (1687-1716, to 1690-1719) _ also 10.65 (1873-1902)* 10.5 ... 2013 10.3 ... 1983 10.2 ... 2021 10.1 ... 1987 9.9 ... 1984 (also 1979) 9.2 ... 1996 tied 15th coldest with four other years, the coldest in recent years) 9.1 ... 1756 and 1877 tied 13th coldest 9.0 ... 1692,93,94,95 and 1782 tied 8th coldest 8.9 ... 1879, 1885, 1902 tied 5th coldest 8.8 ... 1855 was 4th coldest 8.7 ... 1817 was 3rd coldest 8.6 ... 1740 was 2nd coldest 8.5 ... 1698 was coldest May Extreme cold 4.2 ... mean for 1-5 May, 1979 (4.4, 3.7, 4.7, 4.4, 3.9) 3.5 .... mean for 3-5 May, 1877 (3.2, 3.2, 4.2) 3.1 .... coldest daily mean (8th, 1861) _____________________________________ * The secondary minimum came after two centuries of warmer Mays with 11.61 1820-49 the peak Post your May CET forecasts before end of day Tuesday 30th of April to avoid time penalty, or in first three days of May with increasing late penalties. ______________________________________ England and Wales precip (EWP) contest Note: this is verified against the Hadley version of EWP (1766 to present), The contest asks you to predict the average England and Wales precip in mm. These are the extreme values and recent averages. 151.8 ___ max 1766-2023 (in 1773) 142.4 ___ second wettest in 1782 140.7 ___ third wettest in 1967 122.7 ___ maximum 1981-2023 (in 2021) _ 118.4 in 2007 _ 115.2 in 1983 65.1 ___ average 1994-2023 64.1 ___ average 1766-2023 (all data) 63.6 ___ average 1981-2010 62.7 ___ average 1991-2020 10.3 ___ minimum 1981-2023 (in 2020) _ (13.7 (1991) previous) 07.9 ___ (min 1766-2023) in 1844 ________________________________________________________________ Recent ... 2023_43.8 mm ... 2022 _ 59.4 mm ... 2021 _122.7 mm ... 2020 _ 10.3 mm ... 2019 _ 46.0 mm ... 2018 _ 51.9 mm ... 2017 _ 65.0 mm ... 2016 _ 61.7 mm ... 2015 _ 86.6 mm ... 2014 _ 102.8 mm ... 2013 _ 73.9 mm ... 2012 _ 57.4 mm ... 2011 _ 46.5 mm ... 2010 _ 38.3 mm ... ... Enter the EWP contest in the same post as your CET temperature forecast. Scores are by rank order out of 10.0, 0.3 penalties per day late. Same deadlines apply as CET contest. ... Good luck in both contests ...

1778 as already discussed went from near-record warmth 1-13 Apr to near-record cold 14-27 Apr, and had a daily average of only 2.9 on 24th which was broken in 1908 so it isn't in list of records now, but 22 April is still there (3.4 C). 1873 also had very cold days near 3 C not staying as records after 1908. I had a look to verify that no colder readings than 2.9 were broken by the 1908 and 1856 records. The 2.7 mean daily on 30 April 1945 is another case of a record low following warm April weather (record highs set 15-16 Apr). After 2.5 on 23 April 1908 the second coldest average was 3.2 in 1857 (also 3.4 in 1827). After 0.6 on 24 April 1908 the second coldest average was 2.9 in 1778 (also 3.2 in 1873). After 1.8 on 25 April 1908 the second coldest average was 3.2 in 1816, 1873 and 1950. (also 3.5 in 1829). After 0.7 on 29 April 1856 the second coldest average was 3.1 in 1782. The -0.2 of 19 April 1772 was not further ahead of 1.7 in 1849 (also 2.3 in 1793, 2.4 in 1838 and 2.5 in 1809).

The 1908 late April cold spell set three daily CET records including 0.6 on 24 April; only 1856 (0.7 on 29 April) has any reading lower than 1.0 after the --0.2 of 19 April 1772. Anyway, I looked into the question of a colder second half of April than Feb-Mar combined, and found six cases: 1809, 1815, 1859, 1884, 1903 and 1989. (note, Feb-Mar average is a daily average, only one of these cases (1903) actually yielded a late April decrease relative to both monthly means, as noted). This was the top 12 of (otherwise) smallest increases, and the six actual decreases heading the list. Least CET Increases second half April vs FEB -MAR YEAR ____ 16-30 APR ____ FEB -MAR ______ difference __ FEB CET _ MAR CET 1903 _____ 6.0 ______________ 7.1 ___________ --1.1 _______ 7.1 _______ 7.1 1815 _____ 6.6 ______________ 6.9 ___________ --0.3 _______ 6.5 _______ 7.3 1884 _____ 5.6 ______________ 5.9 ___________ --0.3 _______ 5.3 _______ 6.5 1859 _____ 6.3 ______________ 6.5 ___________ --0.2 _______ 5.7 _______ 7.3 1809 _____ 5.8 ______________ 5.9 ___________ --0.1 _______ 5.7 _______ 6.0 1989 _____ 6.7 ______________ 6.8 ___________ --0.1 _______ 6.0 _______ 7.5 1938 _____ 7.4 ______________ 7.2 ___________ +0.2 _______ 5.1 _______ 9.1 1877 _____ 5.9 ______________ 5.5 ___________ +0.4 _______ 6.2 _______ 4.9 1849 _____ 6.5 ______________ 5.9 ___________ +0.6 _______ 5.7 _______ 6.1 1981 _____ 6.2 ______________ 5.5 ___________ +0.7 _______ 3.0 _______ 7.8 2017 _____ 8.2 ______________ 7.5 ___________ +0.7 _______ 6.2 _______ 8.8 Despite record cold 23-25 April, 1908 was +0.9 (Apr 16-30 5.7, Feb 5.3, Mar 4.3 avg 4.8), 12th place for smallest increases. ------------ So, it has happened six times that second half of April was colder than Feb-March average, but only one of those was colder than both Feb and March averages, the other five beat March but not Feb; of the other six in the list, with small increases, one beat Feb, three beat March, and two were slightly warmer than both.

Okay, I took a look at all cases of late April temperature drops relative to first fourteen days (only the warmest 8% of early Aprils were in first sample, granted they would stand a better than average chance of seeing a drop of 1.0+, just about the entire 50% below average first fourteen days would likely be excluded by seasonal trend alone) ... ... that leads to following table of all cases with drops of 1.5 C or more (a total of 51 out of 252 dropped by at least 0.1 C and 11 stayed level). ... 2024 added end of April YEAR ___ CET 1-14 _ CET 1-30 _ decrease 1778 ___ 10.7 ___ ____ 8.2 ___ ___ 2.5 1815 ____ 9.9 ___ ____ 8.1 ___ ___ 1.8 2024 ___ 11.4 ___ ____ 9.6 ___ ___ 1.8 1884 ____ 8.9 ___ ____ 7.2 ___ ___ 1.7 1859 ____ 9.1 ___ ____ 7.5 ___ ___ 1.6 1906 ____ 8.9 ___ ____ 7.3 ___ ___ 1.6 1835 ___ 10.1 ___ ____ 8.6 ___ ___ 1.5 1981 ____ 9.3 ___ ____ 7.8 ___ ___ 1.5 This list adds only four cases (1884, 1859, 1906, 1981) to identify all drops of 1.5+, now working on a program that can isolate cases where second half of April was colder than Feb - march. I wouldn't be surprised to find one or two.

So, on subject of April cooldowns, sam e list as I posted for record warm first 14 days, but now arranged not in order of CET but in order of size of cooldown. There could have been larger drops from less lofty starting points but as we are talking about warm starts transforming to near average end points, only these seem relevant. 2024 added at end of April. YEAR ___ CET 1-13 _ CET 1-14 ___ end result __ CET drop 14 to 30 Apr 1778 ___ 11.19 ___ 10.71 ___ ____ 8.2 ___ ___ 2.5 1815 ___ 10.42 ____ 9.93 ___ ____ 8.1 ___ ___ 1.8 2024 ___ 11.53 ___ 11.39 ___ ____ 9.6 ___ ___ 1.8 1835 ___ 10.15 ___ 10.06 ___ ____ 8.6 ___ ___ 1.5 1926 ___ 10.59 ___ 10.47 ___ ____ 9.3 ___ ___ 1.2 1995 ___ 10.24 ___ 10.23 ___ ____ 9.1 ___ ___ 1.1 1803 ____ 9.93 ___ 10.07 ___ ____ 9.1 ___ ___ 1.0 1827 ____ 9.90 ____ 9.83 ___ ____ 8.9 ___ ___ 0.9 1894 ___ 10.42 ___ 10.29 ___ ____ 9.7 ___ ___ 0.6 1999 ___ 10.58 ___ 10.04 ___ ____ 9.5 ___ ___ 0.5 1792 ____ 9.95 ___ 10.16 ___ ___ 10.0 ___ ___ 0.2 2020 ___ 10.89 ___ 10.54 ___ ___ 10.5 ___ ___ 0.0 2014 ___ 10.35 ___ 10.31 ___ ___ 10.3 ___ ___ 0.0 1943 ___ 10.14 ___ 10.30 ___ ___ 10.5 ___ ___ up 0.2 1798 ____ 9.97 ___ 10.04 ___ ___ 10.3 ___ ___ up 0.3 1865 ___ 10.05 ____ 9.99 ___ ___ 10.6 ___ ___ up 0.6 2011 ___ 11.18 ___ 11.08 ___ ___ 11.9 ___ ___ up 0.8

Looks like 15 April will end a three-day run for 2024 at top of running CET (15th edged out 2011 at 11.1 C), and a seven-day run for top of running 31-day average (10.03 passed 1945 at 9.8, which tied 1803 in one dec). As both will be same (running CET) or higher (31-d) to 16th, 2024 will stop breaking these, and as you're discussing, probably won't return for any more spoils unless that warm spell at around weekend range locks in rather than yielding to cooler synoptics from north and east. It has been snowing lightly here today after three days of 15-17 C sunshine, so it's a volatile time of year.