Roger J Smith

Again, 2004 kept 2024 out of records, in fact 4 Feb 2004 was February's warmest daily mean. I also show 1999, previous record for 4 Feb. 2024: 13.0 __ 10.7 ___ 8.4 2004: 14.8 __ 12.8 __ 10.8 1999: 12.3 __ 10.1 ___ 7.8

EWP confirmed as 97.2 and previous scoring posts are adjusted. In annual scoring, J10 is in lead at 17.79 points, Noname_weather is second at 17.65, Don, WYorksWeather and JeffC are 3rd to 5th. All scoring can be found a few days back in the thread (posted Tuesday 30 Jan). Dancerwithwings (96.0) was top scorer for January, Weather26 (also 96.0, later entry) second, PIT (95.0), jonboy (99.0) and TillyS (95.0) are 3rd to 5th (jonboy 3rd lowest error but with a late penalty).

No new records, 14.5, 12.2 and 10.0 (all 2004) beat out 2024 values of 13.2, 11.0, 8.7.

Our warm forecasts are probably in trouble if the GFS is right about an extended cold spell, but in past we have often seen the GFS overdo cold at longer time scales, so it's hard to say if t is is a real problem or not. (earlier it looked like a four or five day cold spell followed by a gradual return to milder). If GFS is correct we would see a peak CET of about 7.5 C in a few days, and a gradual decline to 3.5 by 19 Feb. EWP first report, only around 1 mm so far, GFS estimate to 19 Feb is a grid average of 40 mm.

Agreed, GFS + 0.5 is usually a good rule. I looked into 10-day averages for cold spells since 1979. Using v2.0.1.0 data I find following results: Coldest 10d intervals 1979 to 2024 Dec 17-26 2010 ____________-4.15 Jan 6-15 1982 ______________-3.95 Dec 10-19 1981 ____________-3.51 (subzero Dec 8-9 also, see continuation below) Jan 9-18 1987 ______________-3.16 Feb 10-19 1985 ____________-2.48 Nov 28-Dec 7 2010 ________-2.20 (-2.26 11d Nov 28-Dec 8 ) Feb 3-12 1991 _____________-2.12 (coldest portion of 29d spell, coldest non-overlap below ^) Jan 9-18 1985 _____________ -1.98 (-2.11 Jan 7-18, 12d) Dec 7-16 2022 _____________-1.88 Jan 1-10 2010 ______________-1.81 Feb 6-15 1986 ______________-1.76 Feb 20 - mar 1 1986 _______ -1.75 Jan 21-30 1979 _____________ -1.49 $$ (see next entry) (note also -0.4 for 7d Dec 17-23 1978 and -0.8 for 5d Nov 27-Dec 1 1978) Dec 30 1978 - Jan 8 1979 ___ -1.37 ( 8d avg -2.5 Dec 30 to Jan 6) (two non-overlap intervals follow) $ and $$ Dec 31 1996 - Jan 9 1997 __ -0.98 * (second part of 20d cold spell) Feb 2-11 2012 _____________ -0.98 Jan 16-25 2013 _____________-0.82 Dec 24 1995 - Jan 2 1996 __ -0.79 ( 7d avg -2.19 Dec 25-31) Dec 29 2008 - Jan 7 2009 __ -0.72 Jan 24 - Feb 2 1996 _________-0.58 (coldest average but close to Jan 29-Feb 7 ) Dec 20-29 1981 ____________ -0.35 (coldest non-overlap, -0.8 9d Dec 20-28) Feb 10-19 1979 ____________ -0.29 Jan 22-31 1992 _____________-0.23 Dec 22-31 1992 ____________-0.22 (Dec 25 to Jan 3 1993 also -0.20) Dec 6-15 1991 _____________ -0.20 Feb 22 - mar 3 2018 _______ -0.20 Dec 16-25 2009 ____________-0.14 Dec 26 1985 - Jan 5 1986 __+0.07 Jan 10-19 1980 ____________ +0.23 Feb 9-18 1983 _____________+0.32 Jan 11-20 1979 ____________ +0.57 ($ see above two non-overlapping intervals before, after) Dec 23 2000 - Jan 1 2001 __+0.60 ( 6d avg -1.29 Dec 26-31) Jan 3-12 2003 ______________+0.60 Feb 14-23 1994 ____________+0.68 Dec 30 2020-Jan 8 2021 ____+0.72 Feb 1-10 2009 ______________+0.73 Dec 21-30 1996 ____________ +0.75 (first part of cold 20d spell, no overlap w Dec 31-Jan 9 1997 above)** Dec 29 2001 - Jan 7 2002 ___+0.87 ( 8d avg -0.08 Dec 29-Jan 5) Nov 20-29 1993 ____________ +0.91 (equivalent to -1 or even -2 in Jan-Feb) (+1.56 Nov 24 - Dec 3 1989) Feb 17-26 1981 _____________+0.95 mar 23 - Apr 1 2013 _______ +1.06 (considering normal values 6-7 C quite extreme) Jan 24 - Feb 2 1991 ________ +1.08 ^ (coldest non-overlap to Feb 3-12 very cold spell) Feb 6-15 2021 _____________ +1.09 ( 8d avg 0.01 7-14 Feb) also close to criterion of +1.2 or lower include (Feb 13-22 1984 +1.26) (Jan 18-27 1984 +1.32) (Feb 20 to mar 1 2005 +1.63) (Jan 10-19 2024 +1.38) ** (96-97) various later ten-day averages are lower but overlap part of coldest portion Dec 31 to Jan 9. Jan 10 1997 was also +0.5 To give a longer context, -4.58 for 17-26 Jan 1963, -4.07 for 11-20 Feb 1929, and -3.36 for 16-25 Feb 1947; -5.87 for 5-14 Feb 1895.

EWP tracker finished on 96.6 mm. Only a small amount was added for rain across northern regions on 31st, however, I will just wait now until table value on 5 Feb is made known, as it could be different again. For now I will leave EWP scoring and ranks unadjusted but they would need a bit of work if final value is in range of 95 to 101. If final is 101 to 103 probably as is with slight edits. So check back on 5 Feb to find out EWP final scoring. If value is close to tracker 96.6 mm, dancerwithwings would take first place for January and do even better in the "best combined" with a second CET and first EWP.

CET extremes for February (1772-2023) and 1981-2010, 1991-2020 means ____________________________________________________________ This section is fully converted from CET legacy to CET v2.0. 1981-2010 averages were similar anyway, about two thirds of the daily averages went up by 0.1 but due to rounding the monthly average was still 4.4. Most daily records are same with minor alterations to values, but 2nd 1923, 6th 1866, and 24th 1846 lost record highs held in the CET legacy set. Three ties are added or replaced what had been sole records (3rd Feb min was tied). DATE .... MAX (year) .... MIN (year) .. .. 1981-2010 avg, cum to date .... Highest and lowest running CET 01 Feb ... 11.1 (1923) ... -6.8 (1956) ... ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ... 11.1 (1923) ... ... ... -6.8 (1956) 02 Feb ... 10.9 (2002,04) . -6.6 (1956) ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ... 10.9 (1923) ... ... ... -6.6 (1956) 03 Feb ... 12.2 (2004) ... -5.4 (1841 & 1956) ... .. 4.7 ... ... ... 4.6 .... .... ...10.8 (2004) ... ... ... -6.2 (1956) 04 Feb ... 12.8 (2004) ... -4.8 (1912) ... ... ... ... ... 5.2 ... ... ... 4.7.... .... ... 11.3 (2004) ... ... ... -5.0 (1956) 05 Feb ... 11.8 (2004) ... -6.3 (1830) ... ... ... ... ... 5.4 ... ... ... 4.9 .... .... ... 11.4 (2004) ... ... ... -4.9 (1830) 06 Feb ... 10.3 (2011) ... -7.3 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 5.5 ... ... ... 5.0 .... .... ... 10.9 (2004) ... ... ... -5.1 (1830) 07 Feb ... 10.4 (1869) ... -7.2 (1895,1917) .. ... ... 4.8 ... ... ... 4.9 .... .... ... 10.3 (2004) ... ... ... -3.7 (1830) 08 Feb ... 10.7 (1903) ... -8.5 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.9 .... .... ..... 9.6 (1994) ... ... ... -3.7 (1895) 09 Feb ... 11.4 (1831,1903) . -8.8 (1816)*... ... .. 4.0 ... ... ... 4.8 .... .... ..... 9.2 (1869) ... ... ... -4.1 (1895) 10 Feb ... 12.0 (1899) ... -6.6 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.7 .... .... ..... 9.3 (1869) ... ... ... -4.3 (1895) 11 Feb ... 11.4 (1939) ... -4.0 (1986) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.7 .... .... ..... 9.2 (1869) ... ... ... -4.2 (1895) 12 Feb ... 11.3 (1998) ... -7.7 (1845) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.7 .... .... ..... 8.9 (1869) ... ... ... -4.3 (1895) 13 Feb ... 11.9 (1998) ... -6.9 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.6 .... .... ..... 8.8 (1869) ... ... ... -4.4 (1895) 14 Feb ... 10.2 (1794) ... -7.2 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 3.5 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ..... 8.8 (1869) ... ... ... -4.3 (1895) 15 Feb ... 11.1 (1958) ... -7.4 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ..... 8.7 (1869) ... ... ... -4.3 (1895) 16 Feb ... 10.5 (2022) ... -7.2 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ..... 8.8 (1869) ... ... ... -4.1 (1895) 17 Feb ... 11.3 (1878,2023) . -7.0 (1855)... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 8.7 (1869) ... ... ... -4.0 (1895) 18 Feb ... 11.8 (1945) ... -3.9 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.9 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 8.6 (1869) ... ... ... -3.9 (1895) 19 Feb ... 10.4 (1893) ... -5.0 (1777) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 8.4 (1869) ... ... ... -3.6 (1895) 20 Feb ... 11.3 (1990) ... -6.6 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.3 (1869) ... ... ... -3.5 (1895) 21 Feb ... 11.3 (2019) ... -4.7 (1810) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.2 (1869) ... ... ... -3.2 (1895) 22 Feb ... 10.6 (1953) ... -3.3 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.9 (1869) ... ... ... -3.0 (1855&1895) 23 Feb ... 11.8 (2012) ... -3.5 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.3 ..... .... ..... 7.7 (1779&1869) ..-2.9 (1855) 24 Feb ... 11.5 (2021) ... -6.6 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 7.7 (1779) ... ... ... -2.6 (1855) 25 Feb ... 10.9 (1922) ... -5.1 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.6 (1779&1869) ..-2.4 (1855) 26 Feb ... 10.9 (1882) ... -4.7 (1783) ... ... ... ... ... 5.0 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 7.7 (1779&1869) ..-2.2 (1855) 27 Feb ... 11.5 (1828) ... -2.8 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 5.3 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 7.8 (1779) ... ... ... -2.0 (1855&1895&1947) 28 Feb ... 11.4 (1959) ... -3.8 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 5.3 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 7.9 (1779) ... ... ... -1.9 (1947) (-1.8 1895) 29 Feb ... 12.0 (1960) ... -2.0 (1904) ... ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... 4.8**.. .... ..... 6.9 (1872) ... ... ... -0.2 (1956) *(1895 was -7.0 on 9th, coldest week in Feb was 6-12 Feb 1895 at --6.3). ** This is the average of seven leap years 1984,88,92,96,2000,04,08 ... but the value for 28th is for all thirty years and does not change for monthly means including the seven leap years. The average of the 23 non leap years was 4.3. _________________________________________________________________________________ 1991-2020 CET daily averages and running means (in that order for each day) 01 __ 4.5 _ 4.5 ____ 06 __ 4.9 _ 4.7 ____ 11 __ 4.6 _ 4.6 ____ 16 __ 5.2 _ 4.7 ____ 21 __ 5.4 _ 4.8 ____ 26 __ 5.7 _ 4.9 02 __ 4.4 _ 4.5 ____ 07 __ 4.5 _ 4.7 ____ 12 __ 5.0 _ 4.6 ____ 17 __ 5.1 _ 4.7 ____ 22 __ 5.4 _ 4.8 ____ 27 __ 5.5 _ 4.9 03 __ 4.4 _ 4.4 ____ 08 __ 4.2 _ 4.6 ____ 13 __ 4.9 _ 4.6 ____ 18 __ 5.1 _ 4.7 ____ 23 __ 5.6 _ 4.8 ____ 28 __ 5.0 _ 4.9* 04 __ 4.9 _ 4.5 ____ 09 __ 4.2 _ 4.5 ____ 14 __ 4.4 _ 4.6 ____ 19 __ 5.0 _ 4.7 ____ 24 __ 5.8 _ 4.8 ____ 29 __ 5.5 _ 4.9* 05 __ 5.0 _ 4.6 ____ 10 __ 4.5 _ 4.5 ____ 15 __ 5.1 _ 4.6 ____ 20 __ 5.1 _ 4.7 ____ 25 __ 5.5 _ 4.9 _________________________________________________________________________________________________ * technical note: these are not the running means for only those years ending on 28th or that were leap years, they are the same value (end of February running mean, regardless of number of days in month). The mean of the eight leap years in the period (1992,96,2000,04,08,12,16,20) was actually 5.00 The mean of the other 22 months of February was 4.86. The mean of all thirty was 4.90. If the 22 years that were not leap years used their 1st March values, the average for 29th Feb would be 5.0. ===========================================================================

It was very similar except there were several days in part one (1st, 4th, 6th) that were close to the average for Dec 2022, as it worked out the intervals were: Dec 2022 ___________ Jan 2024 1-6 average 4.2 _____ 1-6 avg 6.6, (1-5 avg 7.2) 7-17 average -1.6____ 7-20 avg 1.4 (6-20 avg 1.7) 18-31 average 7.2 ___ 21-31 avg 7.6 Dec 2022 avg 3.2 ____ Jan 2024 avg 4.7 so I guess we'll have to see if Feb 2025 works out like this also to create a 13-month cycle.

I edited table back in the thread for top CET averages 21st to 31st, turned out 2024 finished in 9th place (out of 253). The odd part of Jan 2024 was that three intervals were (1-5, 6-20 and 21-31) either well above or well below the overall average and there was no day within 0.5 of the outcome. It's quite unusual to see such a distribution.

Table of forecasts for February 2024 CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (Order of entry) _______ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (Order of entry) ___ 9.0 __ 49.0 _ Shillitocettwo ( 11 ) ________________ 5.6 __ 88.0 _ Weather26 ( 5 ) _______________ 8.1 __ 40.0 _ syed2878 ( 25 ) _____________________5.6 __ 92.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 36 ) ____________ 7.4 _ 121.0 _ SLEETY ( 23 ) _______________________5.5 __ 50.0 _ The PIT ( 20 ) __________________ 7.3 __ 92.0 _ IRememberAtlantic252 ( 2 ) ________5.5 __ 80.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 30 ) _________________ 7.3 __ 40.0 _ Wade ( 10 ) _________________________5.5 __ 80.0 _ weatherforducks (L1-1) _______ 7.2 __ 80.0 _ matt stoke ( 22 ) ___________________ 5.4 __ 92.0 _ chilly milly ( 19 ) _______________ 7.2 _ 125.8 _ Roger J Smith ( 51 ) ________________ 5.4 __ 66.5 _ summer8906 ( 37 ) ____________ 7.1 _ 122.0 _ Summer18 ( 18 ) ___________________5.4 _ 105.0 _ Metwatch ( 53 ) ________________ 7.0 __ 84.0 _ Polar Gael ( 8 ) _____________________ 5.3 __ 94.0 _ February1978 ( 57 ) ____________ 6.9 _ 166.0 _ stewfox ( 13 ) _______________________5.2 _ 75.0 _ 1994-2023 average ______________ 6.9 __ 51.0 _ rwtwm ( 24 ) ________________________5.2 _ 75.0 _ davehsug ( 53 ) __________________ 6.8 __ 91.0 _ Emmett Garland (21) _______________5.2 _ 75.0 _ J10 ( 57 ) _________________________ 6.7 __ 67.0 _ snowblind ( 14 ) ____________________5.1 _ 59.0 _ summer blizzard ( 55 ) __________ 6.7 __ 60.0 _ WYorksWeather ( 33 ) ______________5.0 __ 72.4 _ 1991-2020 average ____________ 6.7 __ 45.0 _ Weather Observer ( 48 ) ____________5.0 __ 55.0 _ Norrance ( 45 ) __________________ 6.6 _ 130.0 _ Frigid ( 6 ) __________________________ 5.0 __ --- --- _ damianslaw ( 47 ) ______________ 6.5 __ 78.0 _ Feb1991Blizzard ( 44 ) ______________4.9 __ 82.0 _ noname_weather ( 52 ) _________ 6.2 __ 73.0 _ snowray ( 4 ) ________________________4.8 __ 70.0 _ Don ( 50 ) ______________________ 6.2 __ 86.0 _ Steve B ( 12 ) ________________________4.7 __ 59.6 _ Bobd29 ( 1 ) _____________________ 6.2 __ 65.0 _ methuselah ( 16 ) ___________________4.7 __ --- --- _ Typhoon John ( 3 ) ______________ 6.2 __ 79.0 _ ScottD ( 17 ) ________________________ 4.7 __ 56.0 _ seaside60 ( 26 ) __________________ 6.1 __ 80.0 _ Leo97t ( 27 ) ________________________ 4.6 __ 52.0 _ virtualsphere ( 15 ) ______________ 6.0 __ 73.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 34 ) ______________4.6 __ 75.0 _ Shaunado ( 41 ) _________________ 5.9 __ 72.0 _ Reef ( 32 ) ___________________________ 4.4 __ 66.5 _ 1981-2010 average ____________ 5.9 __ 80.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 43, 2.5 ) __________4.4 __ 60.0 _ mulzy ( 38 ) _____________________ 5.8 __ --- --- _ Summer Sun ( 28 ) __________________ 4.0 __ 83.0 _ jonboy ( 29 ) ____________________ 5.8 __ 33.0 _ Summer Shower ( 42 ) ______________ 3.9 __65.5 _ average of all data ______________ 5.7 __ 59.0 _ catbrainz ( 31 ) ______________________ 3.9 __ 65.0 _ daniel* ( 39 ) ___________________ 5.7 __ 75.0 _ Stationary Front ( 46 ) _______________ 3.8 __ 55.0 _ Neil N ( 40 ) ____________________ 5.7 __ 85.0 _ Somerset Girl ( 55 ) __________________ 3.4 __ 48.3 _ baddie (using 2013) ( 7 ) _______ 5.7 __ --- --- _Mark Bayley ( 60 ) ____________________3.3 __ --- --- _ Kentish Man (49) _______________ 5.7 __ 75.0 _ Consensus ____________________________ 3.2 __ 85.0 _ Jeff C ( 9 ) _______________________ ____________________________________________________ 2.8 __ 82.0 _ Godber 1 ( 59 ) _________________ ____________________________________________________ 2.3 _ 100.8 _ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 35 ) ________ 60 on time forecasts, and one late by one day, 61 total __ consensus (median) 5.7 ======================== EWP forecasts in order 166_stew .. 130_Frig .. 125.8_RJS .. 122_sum18 ... 121_SLE .. 105_Met .. 100.8_KW .. 94_Feb78 .. 92_IRem, cm, MrM .. 91_EG .. 88_wx26 .. 86_Ste .. 85_Jeff, sg .. 84_PG .. 83_jon .. 82_non, godb .. 80_dww, matt, leo, DR(S), ducks^ .. 79_ScottD .. 78_Feb91 .. 75_Shaun, SF, dave, J10 75.0_94-23 .. 73_snowray, MIA .. 72.4_91-20 .. 72_Reef .. 70_Don .. 67_snowblind .. 66.5_sum8906 .. 66.5_81-10 .. 65.5_alldata .. 65..meth, dan* .. 60_WYork, mul .. 59.6_bob .. 59_cat, sb .. 56_sea .. 55_NN, Norr .. 52_virt .. 51_rwtwm .. 50_PIT .. 49_Shil .. 48.3_bad ... 45_WxOb .. 40_Wade, syed .. 33_SumSh __________ __________ 55 on time forecasts, and one late by one day ^ .. total 56 .. consensus 75.0 mm

I could see there being a few colder days 11-15 Feb but overall an average of 7.2, with 125.8 for EWP. The winter over here has been a carbon copy of 1997-98, lots of rain instead of snow in ski resort areas. Will have a table of forecasts by about 0200h, not going to work on it until the last second changes as it takes a lot of extra work to keep changing the order of entries (it's not the different forecasts, that's easy to change, but then you have to go into the table you have nearly ready to post and change order of entries).

EWP tracker will be 95 mm plus whatever falls today (in northern areas). It was 95 mm after 29th and last 24h largely dry. Looks like a band of very strong winds and squally showers will affect NI, sw Scotland, and nw England today, but it will weaken later as it reaches CET zone. When we get a CET update today (for 30 days) it's not likely to move much if at all, and today's average could be held down by earlier cold readings before it began to rise overnight, so looks to be either 4.6 or 4.7 as likely outcomes. Are there wind warnings out for northeast England, possible lee wave situation setting up?

ItNeverSnowsInWindsor Quote business is too complex now, but I just reminded myself of your late change from 4.7 to 2.3 C. Oops. In table above, when I mentioned two "late" changes (methuselah went from 6.0 to 4.0 on 1st which worked out a bit better), I believe I was recalling yours which was actually late in the "on time" period, not really late, as I can't find another one, going off memory is not always a good idea. It's also possible one of the late entries posted on 1st January revised an earlier post without drawing attention to it, and I've forgotten which one it was (so yours would perhaps be a third case). Anyway, several others revised on last day too, not sure how many gained any points. DR(S)NO went from 4.5 to 3.8, for example. I made no revisions but sucked (3.7) from an earlier starting point. Well it's all in fun, right? All of the above will be adjusted as needed in next 2-3 days.

CET and EWP ranks (with best combined) _ preliminary based on 4.7 C and 102 mm _ EWP to be adjusted 2 Feb Note: ranks are not adjusted in CET for late penalties, as there are a lot this month. The three recent averages were all between first and second in forecasters' best combined total ranks. Consensus tied the 14th best combined of forecasters. Top 30 best combined forecasters are identified. Table will be adjusted 1st-2nd as CET, EWP data confirmed. Ranks __ CET _ EWP __ FORECASTER (Order of entry) ___ Best combined info __ (top 30 identified) _01_13 __4.7 __ 90.0 __ noname_weather (47) ___________14 __ 2nd best combined _01_05 __4.7 __ 94.8 __ 1994-2023 average ______________ 06 ___ (2nd -a) ... recent averages did well _01_06 __4.7 __ 94.2 __ 1991-2020 average ______________ 07 ___ (2nd -b) 3 recent averages shown 2nd-a,b _02_01 __4.6 __ 96.0 __ dancerwithwings ( 3 ) ____________ 03 ___ best combined _03_34 __4.8 __ 74.0 __ Metwatch (46) ____________________ 37 ___13th best combined _04_49 __4.5 __ 62.0 __ chilly milly ( 4 ) ____________________53 __ t25th best combined _05_17 __4.9 __ 88.0 __ Don (41) __________________________ 22 ___ 3rd best combined _06_46 __4.9 __ 65.0 __ Weather Observer (44) ___________ 52 ___ 24th best combined _07_62 __4.5 __ 45.0 __ Norrance (53) _____________________69 _08_28 __5.0 _ 115.0 __ summer shower (12) _____________ 36 ___12th best combined _09_38 __4.4 __ 71.0 __ February 1978 (52) ________________47___ 20th best combined _10_18 __4.4 __ 88.0 __ jmp223 (L1-5) _____________________28 ___ 5th best combined _11_57 __4.4 __ 53.0 __ somerset girl (L1-11) ______________68 _12_50 __5.0 __132.0 __ shillitocettwo (L1-14) _____________62 ___t29th best combined _08_06 __4.4 __ 93.0 __ 1981-2010 average _______________14 __ (2nd-3rd) _13_25 __5.1 __ 81.0 __ Mr Maunder (33) _________________ 38 ___ 14th best combined _14_20 __5.2 _ 110.0 __ summer8906 (13) ________________ 34 ___ 7th best combined _15_17 __5.2 __ 88.0 __ moorlander (34) __________________ 32 ___ 6th best combined _16_19 __4.2 __ 87.0 __ feb1991blizzard (37) ______________35 ___t8th best combined _17_27 __4.2 __ 80.0 __ Rob79812010 (L1-6) ______________ 44 ___t17th best combined _18_35 __4.2 __ 74.0 __ rwtwm (L1-9) _____________________ 53 ___t25th best combined _14_25 __4.2 __ 81.0 __ consensus ________________________39 ___ (15th) _19_24 __4.1 __ 82.0 __ snowray (24) ______________________43 ___16th best combined _20_29 __4.1 _ 115.0 __ Summer of 95 (35) ________________49 ___t21st best combined _21_02 __5.4 __ 96.0 __ Weather26 ( 9 ) ____________________23 ___ 4th best combined _22_45 __4.0 __ 65.0 __ climate man (14) __________________67 _23_40 __4.0 __ 70.0 __ weatherforducks (25) _____________ 63 _24_41 __4.0 _ 125.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (29) _____________65 _25_10 __5.4 _ 103.6 __ WYorksWeather (30) ______________35 ___t8th best combined _26_----__5.4 __ --- --- __ Typhoon John (31) _________________ ---- _27_15 __5.4 _ 106.0 __ Reef (39) __________________________42___ 15th best combined _28_61 __4.0 __ 45.0 __ davehsug (45) _____________________89 _29_06 __4.0 _ 100.0 __ methuselah (L1-4, 12.5) __________ 35 ___t8th best combined _30_55 __3.9 __ 55.0 __ Frigid (38) _________________________ 85 _31_04 __3.9 __ 99.0 __ jonboy (L1-2) ______________________35 ___t8th best combined _32_32 __5.6 _ 120.0 __ East Lancs Rain ( 1 ) ______________ 64 _33_42 __5.6 __ 67.0 __ SteveB (10) ________________________75 _34_53 __3.8 __ 59.0 __ Bobd29 (26) _______________________87 _35_09 __5.6 __ 91.0 __ summer blizzard (27) _____________ 44 ___t17th best combined _36_40 __3.8 __ 70.0 __ daniel* (42) _______________________ 76 _37_12 __3.8 __ 90.0 __ DR(S)NO (43) ______________________49___ t21st best combined _38_47 __3.8 __ 64.0 __ Stationary Front (51) ______________85 _39_07 __5.4 _ 100.0 __ J10 (54) ____________________________46___19th best combined _40_54 __3.7 __ 56.3 __ Roger J Smith ( 5 ) _________________ 94 _41_14 __5.5 _ 105.0 __ ScottD ( 6 ) ________________________ 55___t27th best combined _42_51 __3.7 __ 60.0 __ Earthshine (17) ____________________ 93 _43_08 __5.5 _ 102.0 __ summer18 (21) ___________________ 51___ 23rd best combined _44_36 __3.7 __ 72.0 __ harveyslugger (23) _______________ 80 _45_----__3.7 __ --- --- __ damianslaw (L1-8) _______________ ---- _46_58 __3.7 __ 52.0 __ seaside60 (L1-10) ________________ 104 _47_56 __3.7 __ 53.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (48) ____________ 103 _48_52 __5.8 _ 135.0 __ I remember Atlantic252 ( 2 ) _____ 100 _49_----__5.8 _ --- --- __ Mark Bayley (22) ___________________ ---- _50_----__3.6 __ --- --- __ Summer Sun (28) ________________ ---- _51_11 __3.5 __ 90.0 __ Jeff C ( 8 ) __________________________ 62 ___t29th best combined _52_03 __6.0 __ 95.0 __ The PIT (15) ________________________55 ___t27th best combined _53_37 __6.1 _ 123.0 __ virtualsphere (20) _________________ 90 _54_----__3.3 __ --- --- __ Kentish Man (49) __________________ ---- _55_33 __3.3 __ 75.0 __ john88b ((L1-3) ____________________ 88 _53_26 __3.3 __ 81.6 __ average of all data _________________79 _56_63 __6.3 __ 40.0 __ syed2878 (19) ____________________ 119 _57_60 __3.1 __ 45.3 __ Shaunado (40) ____________________117 _58_21 __3.1 __ 86.0 __ Let It Snow! (L1-7) _________________ 79 _59_05 __6.4 __ 95.0 __ Tillys (L1-1) ________________________ 64 _60_31 __3.0 __ 76.0 __ mulzy (L1-13) ______________________ 91 _61_59 __2.8 __ 50.0 __ Leo97t ( 7 ) _______________________ 120 _62_22 __2.8 __ 84.0 __ Emmett Garland (36) ______________ 84 _63_43 __2.7 __ 67.0 __ sukayuonsensnow (32) ___________106 _64_26 __6.9 __ 80.0 __ stewfox (16) _______________________ 90 _65_44 __2.3 __ 66.0 __ prolongedSnowLover (50) ________ 109 _66_23 __2.1 __ 84.0 __ Godber 1 (L1-12) __________________ 89 _67_48 __1.8 __ 62.3 __ Polar Gael (18) ___________________ 115 _68_30 __0.7 __ 76.6 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (11) ____________ 98 ========================== EWP forecasts in order 135_IRem .. 132_shil^ ..125_Add .. 123_virt .. 120_ELR .. 115_sumsh, sum95 .. 110_sum8906 .. 106_Reef .. 105_ScottD .. 103.6_WYork .. 102_sum18 .. 100_meth, J10 .. 99_jon^ 96_dww,wx26 .. 95_PIT, tilly^ .. 94.8_94-23 .. 94.2_91-20 .. 93.0_81-10 .. 91_sb .. 90_Jeff, DR(S),non .. 88_moor, Don, jmp223^ .. 87_Feb91 .. 86_LIS^ .. 84_EG, godb^.. 82_snow .. 81.6_alldata .. 81_mrm .. 80_stew, Rob^ .. 76.6_KW .. 76_mul^ .. 75_j88b^ .. 74_met, rwtwm^ .. 72_harv .. 71_Feb78 .. 70_ducks, dan .. 67_SteveB, suk .. 66_pSL .. 65_climan, WxOb .. 64_SF .. 62.3_PG .. 62_cm .. 60_Earth .. 59_bob .. 56.3_RJS .. 55_Frig .. 53_mia,sg^ .. 52_sea^ .. 50_leo .. 45.3_Shaun .. 45_dave, Norr .. 40_syed (note, methuselah on time for EWP as only CET changed after deadline, EWP order of entry 12.5) (one other change in CET after deadline had no EWP forecast attached) (63 EWP forecasts in total) (EWP ranks to be adjusted, tied values using 102.0 are ranked from high to low in anticipation of sign error deductions, but exact value could be quite different anyway)

Looking back at tables of high CET averages for second half of January and 21-31 January posted around 18 Jan, looks like this one could end up barely inside top ten of 21-31 Jan, and just outside top thirty of second halves. I would currently estimate about 7.5 to 7.6 for 21-31 and 5.7 for 17-31, or 5.5 for 16-31. It would be broadly similar to 1903 or 2016. Currently average is 7.78 for 21-29 Jan. Now looking at 4.7 or 4.8 as likely outcome for CET. In recent decades, quite a normal January except three intervals all considerably different from the mean.

As EWP is now posted as 97.2 mm, an updated look at final EWP scoring, in order of total points. Ranks for January can be seen beside predictions. Ranks are scoring levels before late penalties, so in a few cases actual scoring ranks are not in same order. (note: missed mo. error is consensus + 5 in italics _ it is 21.2 mm for Jan ... in contest year, a maximum of five missed mo's are acceptable before ranking discontinued) Updated scoring for EWP DEC 2023 - JAN 2024 final scoring based on 97.2 mm Ranks ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Jan_Dec_TOTAL ___ Jan _Dec __ Avg now_(Dec)_fcst (rank) _ FORECASTER (Order of entry) _EWP scoring (pts) _ errors__ avg 2mo (Ranks, now and after Dec) _01 _ 08 ___100.0 (07) __ J 10 ( 54 ) __________________ 9.12_8.67__17.79 ____2.8_41.3__22.05 mm _ 3_ (8.) _02 _ 04 ___ 90.0 (13) __ noname_weather ( 47 ) ____ 8.22_9.43__17.65 ___ 7.2_32.3__19.75 mm _ 1_ (4) _03 _ 03 ___ 88.0 (17) __ Don ( 41 ) __________________ 7.47_9.62__17.09 ___ 9.2_31.3__20.25 mm _ 2 _(3) _04 _ 11 ___103.6 (10) __ WYorksWeather ( 30 ) _____ 8.56_8.10__16.66 ___ 6.4_46.3__26.35 mm _ 7_ (11) (4.7) _(17.6)_ 94.8 (5.2) ___ 1994-2023 average _____ 9.33_6.86__16.19 ___ 2.4_55.0__28.70 mm _8.8_(17.6) _05 _ 14 ___ 90.0 (11) __ Jeff C ( 8 ) ___________________8.38_7.53 __15.91 ___ 7.2_51.3__29.25 mm _ 9_(t14) (5.4)(19.1) __94.2 (5.8) ___1991-2020 average _______9.23_6.55__15.78____ 3.0_57.7__30.35 mm_ 9.3_ (19.1) _06 _ 09 ____ 87.0 (19) __ Feb1991blizzard ( 37 ) ____ 7.06_8.48__ 15.54___10.2_42.3__26.25 mm _ 6_ (9) _07 _ 06 ___ 84.0 (23) __ godber 1 (L1-12) ____________6.20^9.14__15.34 ___13.2_37.3__25.25 mm _ 4_ (t5) _08 _ 07 ___ 82.0 (24) __ snowray ( 24 ) ______________ 6.26_8.86__15.12___ 15.2_39.8__27.50 mm _ 8_ (7) (8.7)(22.4)__ 93.0 (7.5)____1981-2010 average ______ 8.96_5.90__14.86 ___ 4.2_63.9__34.05 mm _9.9_ (22.4) _09 _ 20 ___ 90.0 (12) __ DR(S)NO ( 43 ) ______________ 8.30_6.38__14.68 ___ 7.2_61.3__34.25 mm_t10_ (20) _10 _ 30 ___ 96.0 (02) __ Weather26 ( 9 ) _____________ 9.92_4.37__14.29 ___ 1.2_76.3__38.75 mm_ 17_ (30) _11 _ 01 ___123.0 (37) __ virtualsphere ( 20 ) ________ 4.24_10.00_14.24 ___ 25.8_25.3__25.55 mm _ 5 _(1) _12 _ 27 ___100.0 (06) __ methuselah (12.5) _________ 9.20_4.98__14.18 ___ 2.8_73.3__38.05 mm _16_ (t27) _13 _ 28 ___102.0 (08) __ summer18 ( 21 ) ___________ 8.88_4.88__13.76 ___ 4.8_73.3__39.05 mm_ 18_ (t27) _14 _ 19 ___ 86.0 (20) __ Let It Snow! (L1-7) ___________6.60^6.58__13.18 ___11.2_57.3__34.25 mm_t10_ (19) _15 _ 24 ___ 88.0 (16) __ moorlander ( 34 ) ___________7.55_5.58__13.13____ 9.2_65.3__37.25 mm_ 15_ (24) _16 _ 36 ___ 95.0 (04) __ The PIT ( 15 ) ________________9.52_3.41__12.93 ____2.2_81.3__41.75 mm_t23_ (t34) _17 _ 05 ___ 66.0 (44) __ prolongedSnowLover ( 50 )__3.06_9.24__12.30 ___ 31.2_37.3__34.25 mm_t10_ (t5) _18 _ 29 ___106.0 (15) __ Reef ( 39 ) __________________ 7.76_4.56__12.32____ 8.8_74.3__41.55 mm_ 22_ (29) _19 _ 12 ___ 71.0 (38) __ February1978 ( 52 ) __________4.02_7.91__11.93___ 26.2_47.3__36.75 mm_ 14_ (12) (19.9)(26.5)_ 81.6 (24.4)__average of all data (CET, EWP)_6.20_5.09_11.29___ 15.6_72.2__43.70 mm_27.8_(26.5) _20 _ 43 ___ 99.0 (03) __ jonboy (L1-2) _________________9.38^1.90 _11.28 ____ 1.8_ 90.3__46.05 mm_ 31_ (43) _21 _ 40 ___ 91.0 (9) ___ summer blizzard ( 27 ) _______8.71_2.47__11.18 ___ 6.2_87.3__46.75 mm_t33_ (40) _22 _ 02 ___ 55.0 (55) __ Frigid ( 38 ) __________________ 1.30_9.81__11.11 ____42.2_26.3__34.25 mm_t10_ (2) (22.4)(27)___ 81.0 (25) __ Consensus_________________ 6.10_4.98__11.08 ___ 16.2_73.3__44.75 mm_29.0_(t27) _23 _ 15 ___125.0 (41) __Addicks Fan 1981 ( 29 ) _____ 3.60_7.43__11.03____27.8_51.3__39.55 mm _ 20_ (t14) _24 _ 49 ___ 96.0 (01) __ dancerwithwings ( 3 ) ________10.00_0.76__10.76 ___ 1.2_102.3__51.75 mm_t43_(49) _25 _ 33 ___ 84.0 (22) __ Emmett Garland ( 36 ) _______6.58_3.89__10.47 ___ 13.2_80.3__46.75 mm_t33_ (t32) _26 _ 10 ___ 62.0 (50) __ chilly milly ( 4 ) _______________2.10_8.29__10.39 ___35.2_43.3__39.25 mm_ 19_ (10) _27 _ 22 ___ 74.0 (35) __ rwtwm (L1-9) ________________ 4.28^5.98__10.26 ___ 23.2_63.3__43.25 mm_ 26_ (22) _28 _ 25 ___ 74.0 (34) __ Metwatch ( 46 ) ______________ 4.66_5.38__10.04 ___ 23.2_66.3__ 44.75 mm_ 29_ (25) _29 _ 26 ___ 76.0 (31) __ Mulzy (L1-13) ________________ 4.84^5.18__10.02 ___ 21.2_71.3__46.25 mm_ 32_ (26) _30 _ 13 ___135.0 (52) __ I remember Atlantic252( 2 ) _ 1.84_7.72__ 9.56 ____37.8_49.3__43.55 mm_ 27_ (13) _31 _ --- ___ 95.0 (05) __ Tillys ( L1-1 ) __________________ 9.14^ -- --_ 9.14 _____ 2.2_78.3__ 40.25 mm _21_ (---) _32 _ 38 ___ 80.0 (26) __ stewfox ( 16 ) ________________ 5.94_2.85__8.79 ___ 17.2_86.3__51.75 mm_t43_(t38.) _33 _ 34 ___ 75.0 (32) __ John88b (L1-3) _______________4.68^3.61__8.29 ___ 22.2_81.3__51.75 mm_t43_(t34) _34 _ 23 ___ 62.3 (48) __ Polar Gael ( 18 ) _____________ 2.42_5.78__ 8.20 ___ 34.9_64.8__49.85 mm _39_(23) _35 _ --- ___105.0 (14) __ ScottD ( 6 ) ___________________7.92 _ -- --_ 7.92 ____ 7.8_78.3__ 43.05 mm _ 25_ (---) _36_ 18 ___ 53.0 (56) __ Midlands Ice Age ( 48 ) _______1.14_6.77__7.91 ___ 44.2_56.3__50.25 mm_ 40_(18.) _37 _ 44 ___ 81.0 (25) __Mr Maunder ( 33 ) ___________ 6.10_1.71 __ 7.81 __ 16.2_94.3__55.25 mm_t50_(44) _38 _ 16 ___ 52.0 (58) __ seaside60 (L1-10) ___________ 0.58^7.03^_7.61 ____45.2_51.3__48.25 mm _ 37_(t14) _39 _ 17 ___ 45.0 (61) __ davehsug ( 45 ) _____________ 0.40_6.96__ 7.36 ____ 52.2_53.3__52.75 mm_t47_(17) _40 _ --- ___ 88.0 (18) __ jmp223 (L1-5) _______________ 7.08^_-- --__ 7.08 ____ 9.2_78.3__ 43.75 mm _ 28_( --- ) _41 _ 39 ___ 70.0 (40) __ daniel* ( 42 ) ________________ 3.78_2.75__6.53 ____27.2_86.3__ 56.75 mm_ 53_(t38.) _42 _ --- ___110.0 (21) __summer8906 ( 13 ) __________ 6.40 _ -- --_ 6.40 ____12.8_78.3__45.55 mm_ 30_ (---) _43 _ 50 ___115.0 (28) __ summer shower ( 12 ) ______ 5.68_0.57__ 6.25 ___ 17.8_105.3_61.55 mm_ 57_(50) _44 _ 21 ___ --- --- (---) __ Wold Topper ( ---) ___________ -- -- _6.18__ 6.18 ___ 21.2_62.3__41.75 mm _t23_ (21) _45 _ 31 ___ 59.0 (53) __ Bobd29 ( 26 ) _______________ 1.62_4.18 __5.80 ___38.2_78.3__58.25 mm _54_(31) _46 _ --- ___115.0 (29) __ summer of 95 ( 35 ) ________ 5.60_ -- -- __ 5.60 ____17.8_78.3__48.05 mm_ 36_(---) _47 _ 35 ___ 60.0 (51) __ Earthshine ( 17 ) ____________ 1.94_3.51__ 5.45 ___37.2_81.3__59.25 mm _56_(t34) _48 _ --- ___ 80.0 (27) ___Rob79812010 (L1-6) ________ 5.56 _-- --_ 5.52 ____17.2_78.3__47.75 mm _35_(---) _49 _ --- ___ 76.6 (30) __KirkcaldyWeather ( 11 ) ______ 5.30 _-- --_ 5.30 ____20.6_78.3__49.45 mm _38_(---) _50 _ 42 ___ 65.0 (46) __ Weather Observer ( 44 ) ____ 2.82_2.18__5.00 ___ 32.2_89.3__58.75 mm _55_(t41) _51 _ --- ___120.0 (33) __EastLancsRain ( 1 ) __________ 4.88 _-- --__ 4.88 ____22.8_78.3__ 50.55 mm_ 41_( --- ) _52 _ 47 ___ 67.0 (42) __ SteveB ( 10 ) ________________ 3.38_1.14__4.52 ____30.2_98.3__64.25 mm_t58_(47) _53 _ (---) __ 72.0 (36) __ harveyslugger ( 23 ) ________ 4.34_ ---- __ 4.34 ___ 25.2_ 78.3__51.75 mm_t43_(---) _54 _ 32 ___ --- --- (---) __ Alexis J9 ( --- ) _______________ -- -- _3.99__3.99 ___ 21.2 _80.3__50.75 mm_ 42_(t32) _55 _ 46 ___ 64.0 (47) __ Stationary Front ( 51 ) _____ 2.58_1.33__3.91 ___ 33.2_97.3__65.25 mm_ 60_(46) _56 _ --- ___ 70.0 (39) __ weatherforducks ( 25 ) _____ 3.86_ -- --__ 3.86 ____27.2_78.3__52.75 mm_t47_(---) _57_ 37 ___ 53.0 (57) __ Somerset girl (L1-11) _______ 0.76^3.04__3.80 ___ 44.2_84.3__64.25 mm_t58_(37) _58 _ --- ___ 67.0 (43) __sukayuonsensnow ( 32 ) ____ 3.30 _-- --_ 3.30 ____ 30.2_78.3__54.25 mm_ 49_(---) _59 _ 45 ___ 56.3 (54) __ Roger J Smith ( 5 ) __________ 1.46_1.52__2.98 ___ 40.9_96.6__68.75 mm_ 63_(45) _60 _ --- ____ 65.0 (45) __ Climate Man ( 14 ) _________ 2.90_ --- __ 2.90 ___ 32.2_78.3__55.25 mm_t50_(---) _61 _ 51 ___132.0 (49) __ shillitocettwo (L1-14) _______2.02^0.38__2.40 ___ 34.8_110.3_ 72.55 mm _64_(51) _62 _ 41 ___ --- --- (--) ___gazse9 ( -- ) ________________ -- --_ 2.28 __ 2.28 ___ 21.2_89.3__55.25 mm_t50_(t41) _63 _ 48 ___ 50.0 (59) __ Leo97t ( 26 ) _______________ 0.66_0.95__1.61 ___ 47.2_101.3_74.25 mm_ 65_(48.) _64 _ --- ___ 45.3 (60) __ Shaunado ( 6 ) _____________ 0.50_--- ---_0.50 ____51.9_78.3__65.10 mm_ 61_(---) _65 _ --- ___ 45.0 (62) __ Norrance ( 53 ) ____________ 0.30 _ -- --_0.30 ____52.2_78.3__65.25 mm_ 62_(---) _66 _ 52 ___ 40.0 (63) __ syed2878 ( 19 ) ____________0.00_0.19__0.19 ____57.2_111.3_84.25 mm_ 67_(52) _67 _ 53 ___ -- --- ( --- ) __ Neil N ( --- ) _______________---- 0.00 __ 0.00 ___ 21.2_140.3__80.75 mm_ 66_(53) note: ranks for error are in brackets after average EWP error. ... EWP scores affected by late penalties are shown with ^ symbol. If rank is pushed down, this is indicated by "level" which will also be reflected in error rank (those are not adjusted for late days). Error ranks are also tied for entries in different order of entry. also note: Ranks for normals and consensus are in decimal form, indicating where they are located relative to integer ranks of contest entrants.

Values for the 28th were not record breakers, max came closest (11.9), min was only 3.0 and mean 7.4. I would have thought a "UK record" would simply be highest value in UK and one place not getting as warm would be irrelevant to setting a record? These CET records are on the other hand averages for three locations minus 0.2 to account for urban effects. Given that we are at 4.5 after 28 days (previous report says 27 days but it is actually 28 days), a mean of 10 for last three days would give an outcome of 5.0. (unless 4.5 is rounded down from 4.53 or 4.54, then 10.0 gives 5.1, Today looks fairly close to 9, although it could be held down a bit if Stonyhurst is lower than places nearby (I don't see it on maps, the other two CET locations are on meteociel maps).

Will look at today's possible record breaker(s) tomorrow, at present records are: max 12.8 (2018) mean 9.7 (1944 and 1983) min 8.8 (1958) ... mean is lowest of year so easy pickings possibly. You can see average of record max and min is 10.8 but years setting records did not produce impressive second values. 2018 min was 5.3 and 1958 max was 9.7 (previous day was 13.0).

Two CET daily maximum records have been set so far (not including today, 24th). 21 Jan 12.5 C broke 1993 record of 12.4 (same in legacy and v2.0). 23 Jan 13.0 C broke 2018 record of 12.7 (CET v2.0) and while it tied 1884 CET legacy, that was reduced to 12.3 C in v2.0. I am updating my data base by checking all announced revisions in v2.0.1.0 (from v2.0) and so far I have finished checking daily means, they say 109 of these went up or down 0.1 and one on 23 Dec 1884 (which was erroneous due to a source document misread) was corrected substantially -- that was way off because one of three locations used (Ross-on-Wye) had a daily max of +5.1 which was entered into CET records as -15.1. (as one third of daily max, it would make that erroneous by +6.7 and thus the daily mean would be +3.4 in error) ... This was noted as a possible error by me in 2020 when I had finished doing an analysis of daily ranges, and I found one where the max was lower than the min (if I had not done that analysis, I would never have suspected the error was there). I reported that plus some EWP errors due to truncation of files, which were also fixed. So anyway, the changes otherwise were relatively unimportant, but did affect two daily records. 15 June 1858 is now 22.7 (was 22.8 in v2.0), and also 3 Dec 1985 is now 12.1 (was 12.0 in v2.0). I am now looking at changes made to daily max and min; there may be fewer because I suspect some of the changes to means are due to changed rounding protocols and the max and min could remain unchanged. But I do expect to find some. If any affect daily records I will note those here.

Daily CET records 23rd to 31st ... 23 Jan ... 11.6 (1834) 24 Jan ... 10.6 (1782) 25 Jan ... 11.6 (2016) 26 Jan ... 10.0 (1834) 27 Jan ... 10.5 (2016) 28 Jan ..... 9.7 (1944,83) 29 Jan ... 10.2 (1854,1966) 30 Jan ... 10.2 (2000) 31 Jan ... 10.7 (1868) could see 26 and 28 go, at least.

EWP update _ current value is near 75mm and GFS suggests 20mm grid average (a lot of places lower, but quite wet in n.w. England) to end of January, so an outcome near 95mm.

Yes, CET will go up about 0.3 or 0.4 after a very mild day (9-11), 0.1 or 0.2 after not so mild (7-9). About discussion of content of thread, would say, let's just keep doing what we have been doing, the one point I was trying to underscore was to keep chat out of the forecast interval of each new contest thread, so it's good to have the chat in here and not good over in Feb until after 2nd. Don't want to be too rigid, a bit of banter will inevitably occur with the forecasts but I wouldn't want to see technical discussions about February cluttering up the flow of forecasts. If it's in January but discussing February, that's not a bad thing because most readers of this thread will have that next forecast on their mind and can get some ideas from the discussion. There is a historical weather section (forum) and one thread in there (presently on page two of menu) is my compilation of CET data analysis (with some EWP analysis added). If you never knew it was there, go take a look some rainy day when you have time to kill. It has all the daily records, warmest and coldest days of every year, rainfall records, heat waves, cold spells, etc. And there are lots of interesting historical weather threads to read over in that forum.

As the summer months are on a different scale from the other graphs, I took 10 off their means and came up with this look for a more direct comparison: June shows a different pattern with a cooling trend that ended only in 1901-1930. August has tended to march lock-step with July although in the 19th century it tended to be relatively cooler than July. These second-order variations on general themes are interesting and might hold some insights. For example, I wonder if the October chill in 1871-1900 might have been partly related to the rise in coal-fired smoke; October is a month where incoming solar radiation is weak, and there are still anticyclonic intervals; November on the other hand is almost always zonal and so smoke pollution might not have chilled air masses relatively speaking.

Finally, the autumn comparisons. Note that Sep (blue) warmed to near modern levels 1721-50, and fell back, while Oct (red) was notably lagging for 1871-1900. Nov (green) has shown a more steady warming trend since hitting its coldest values in the Dalton minimum.

The three summer months have always been in the same order, red here being July, green August and blue June. July and August have warmed more significantly than June.