Roger J Smith

(a) January CET forecast contest __ __ averages and extremes __ __ (including all CET values since 1981) bold type for warmest 13, italic type middle 16 and underlined type coldest 14. (note all temps converted to v2.0.1.0 in this report) 12.7 .. warmest daily CET mean (1st, 2022) 7.6 ... warmest January (1916) 7.5 7.4 7.3 ... tied second warmest (1796 & 1921) 7.2 7.1 ... fourth warmest (1834) 7.0 ... fifth warmest, and warmest since 1921 (2007) 6.9 ... sixth warmest (1733) 6.8 ... seventh warmest (1975) 6.7 ... tied eighth warmest (1983, 2008.) 6.6 ... tenth warmest (1898.) 6.5 ... tied eleventh warmest (1686, 1990) 6.4 ... tied thirteenth warmest (1736, 1875, 1884, 2020) 6.3 ... tied seventeenth warmest (1846, 1932) 6.2 ... nineteenth warmest (1737) 6.1 ... twentieth warmest (1989) 6.0 ... two tied for 21th warmest (1682, 1708) 5.9 ... five tied for 23rd warmest (1759, 1974, 1976, 1993, 2005) 5.8 ... four tied for 28th warmest (1804, 1866, 1944, 2014) 5.7 .. tied 32nd warmest (1890, 1938.) 5.6 .. five tied, most recent 1930 5.5 .. 1999, 2002, 2012, 2016 5.4 .. most recent 1948 5.3 .. 1988, 1994, 2018 5.2 .. 2004, 2023 5.1 .. 1998 5.0 .. most recent 1711 4.9 .. most recent 1943 4.8 .. 1981, 1995, 2000 ... --- average 2001-2023 --- 4.7 .. 2022 ... --- average 1991-2020 --- ---average 1994-2023 --- ... ... this has been the 30-yr average since 1988-2017 (warmest 2 dec 1988-2017, 1989-2018, 4.74) 4.6 .. most recent 1927 ... only the 30-yr avg twice (v2.0), 1985-2014, 1986-2015 4.5 .. 2015 4.4 .. --- average 1981-2010 ----- and also 2003, 2006 ... ... ... ... -- also average 1898-1927 and 1910-1939 -- (warmth not reached again until 1980 to 2009) 4.3 .. 1996 4.2 .. --- average 1971-2000 ----- ... most recent 1950 4.1 .. most recent 1934 4.0 .. 2017, 2019 3.9 .. --- average 1901-2000 ---- and also 1984 3.8 .. --- average 1961-1990 ---- and also 2011 3.7 .. most recent 1970 3.6 .. 1992 3.5 .. 1986, 2013 ... the 30-yr average as recently as 1958-87 (lowest since 3.3 1941-70) 3.4 .. most recent 1964 3.3 .. --- average of all years 1659-2023 (3.29) --- ... most recent 1978 3.2 .. 1991, 2001, 2021 3.1 .. 2009 ... --- average 1939-1968 --- (lowest Jan 30-year average since 1838-1867) 3.0 .. --- average 1801-1900 ---- ... most recent 1719 2.9 .. --- average 1701-1800 ---- ... most recent 1966 2.8 .. most recent 1977 2.7 .. 1982 2.6 .. --- average 1659-1700 --- ... most recent 1955 2.5 .. most recent 1908 2.4 .. 1997 and --- average 1760-1839 --- (the longest interval for which this was maintained) 2.3 .. most recent 1980 2.2 .. most recent 1947 2.1 .. most recent 1886 2.0 ... --- average 1766 to 1795 --- coldest 30-year average ... most recent 1809 1.9 ... most recent 1813 1.8 ... most recent 1803 1.7 ... most recent 1861 1.6 ... most recent 1959 1.5 ... 2010 1.4 ... most recent (only case) 1744 1.3 ... most recent 1929 1.2 ... most recent 1867 1.1 ... most recent 1841 1.0 ... most recent 1771 0.9 ... tied 43rd coldest (1880, 1942, 1985) 0.8 ... tied 41st coldest (1768, 1987) 0.7 ... tied 39th coldest (1766, 1850) 0.6 ... tied 37th coldest (1774, 1842) 0.5 ... tied 32nd coldest (1681, 1685, 1689, 1871, 1941) 0.4 ... tied 30th coldest (1826, 1945) 0.3 ... tied 27th coldest (1757, 1815, 1829) 0.2 ... 26th coldest (1895) 0.1 ... 25th coldest (1767) 0.0 ... four tied at 21st coldest (1660, 1667,1694,1698) -0.1 ... twentieth coldest (1823) -0.2 ... nineteenth coldest (1830) -0.3 ... eighteenth coldest (1820) -0.4 ... seventeenth coldest, and last subzero January (1979) -0.5 -0.6 ... sixteenth coldest (1784) -0.7 ... fifteenth coldest (1879) -0.8 ... fourteenth coldest (1763) -0.9 ... thirteenth coldest (1780) -1.0 ... twelfth coldest (1695) -1.1, -1.2, -1.3 -1.4 ... eleventh coldest (1940) -1.5 ... tied for eighth coldest (1709, 1838, 1881) -1.6 ... seventh coldest (1776) ... six days end of this month were all record low CET values -1.7, -1.8, -1.9 -2.0 ... sixth coldest (1716) -2.1 ... fifth coldest, and coldest of 20th century (1963) -2.2 to -2.7 -2.8 ... fourth coldest (1740) -2.9 ... third coldest (1814) -3.0 ... second coldest (1684) -3.1 ... coldest January or month (1795) -7.5 ... mean on 14th, 1982 -7.7 ... coldest daily in Jan since 1963 (12th, 1987) or since any CET mean 12 Dec 1981 (-8.7) -8.4 ... coldest daily Jan mean in past 156 yrs (23rd, 1963) -- this was the third coldest day in any month and coldest in any Jan since -9.0 on 4 Jan 1867) ..... ..... 12 Dec 1981 at -8.7 was marginally colder, 8 Feb 1895 -8.5 C -11.9 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean, 20th 1838 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Enter the temperature forecast contest by end of day Sunday, 31 December (2023) or with increasing time penalties on the first three days of January 2024. (Optional) EWP forecast contest -- Predict the January precipitation (snowfall liquid equivalent so for every 10 cm of snow, 10 mm precip on average), the standard we are using for this contest is the Hadley England and Wales Precip (EWP) and here are the averages and extremes (the period of record is 1766 to present) ... 184.6 .. wettest January (2014) 176.8 .. 2nd wettest Jan (1948) 146.0 .. 2021 97.6 ... 2023 94.8 .. --- average 1994-2023 --- 94.2 .. --- average 1991-2020 --- 93.0 .. --- average 1981-2010 --- 81.6 _ average of all data 1766 to 2023 36.3 _ 2022 16.5 .. driest January in recent past (1997) -- 5th driest since these records started in 1766 15.3 .. second driest January on record (1779) 04.4 .. driest January (1766) Notes: The recent past has seen several quite wet months besides 2014, 1988 (169.0 mm) was third wettest, 1995 (162.6 mm) was fourth wettest, and 2016 (149.5 mm) was 8th wettest, 1984 (149.3) was 9th wettest, 2021 (146.0 mm) was 12th wettest and 2008 (144.9) was 13th wettest. 1994 (18th) and 1999 (21st) are also in top 21 wettest Jans, and 1990, 1986 rank 23rd and 24th. So in the recent 38 years (1986 to 2023), we find eleven of the wettest 24, where at random (since 1766) only 3 cases would be expected. By 40th wettest another four of past fifty post-1974 years (1974, 1975, 1998, 2004) are added (total of 15 of 40 in just 50 of 258 years of record). 1993 and 1978 are also added by 51st rank, so 17 out of 51 (one third) of wettest Januaries are found in past fifty years (one in 5.2 is random). Jan 2020 had 82.5 mm, while 2019 was a relatively dry 47.1 mm, and Jan 2018 was slightly wetter than average at 104.5 mm, 2017 produced 79.6 mm and 2015 had 101.0 mm. (2013 was 93.0, 2012 67.6, 2011 94.8, 2010 75.3, 2009 96.4). (Jan 2022, 2023 are in table above) Dry Januaries have been rare in recent decades. Aside from 1997, the only cases since 1981 to record 40 mm or less include 2022 (36.3 mm), 1987 (33.9 mm), and 2006 with 31.9 mm. Since we counted cases in past fifty years, the count in the driest 51 is only five, about half of expectation. Wet beats dry 17-5 in that interval. To enter the precip contest, forecast the England and Wales precip for Jan 2023, to nearest mm (and tenth if desired). You can add this to your temperature forecast or place it in a separate post. Same deadlines, scoring is to a maximum of 10 points each month. Any percentage forecast entered will be converted using 1991-2020 average of 94.2 mm. __ Good luck !! __

That 4.9 was still 0.3 below the warmer 1991-2020 average of 5.2 for 1-15 Dec. GFS projections would take us to an outcome of 6.0, as next week (today to 22nd) all look very mild, colder 23rd to 25th, variable but on average rather mild to end of month. If that cold spell fails to happen, low to mid 6 range is possible. Not quite enough to achieve warmest year (needs 7.6 for that) but could push back into 2nd, a normal outcome would be good for 3rd warmest. Could be a tied 2nd in one dec (with 2014) and up to fate to determine rank in unseen second decimal. Current EWP value is around 85 mm (84.8 to 14 Dec, added almost nothing since). EWP projections to end of month on current 12z GFS run add an average of 35-40 mm, suggesting an outcome of 120-125 mm, still good for about 8th wettest year (I posted info on that a few days ago). I posted a table of top combined annual ranks, and 2023 now all but assured of topping that list, replacing 2014 (and 2002 in terms of ranks exceeded). Not noted at time, but almost all of top warm, wet years are recent, only 1828 joins list of top years from era before 1994. Before 1994, it was normal for warmer years to be in dry to very dry category. 1921 and 1949 were very dry years.

Looks like a top ten EWP year quite possibly, 120 mm Dec takes year to 8th and either 2nd or 3rd warmest. If so, would be highest combination of ranks for CET and EWP annual. Prior top ten (and 2023 projection for current top ten) in that regard are as follows: (table ranks for CET are as shown, assuming 2023 in 3rd place replacing 2014, and for table rank ignoring one decimal ties for CET, EWP ties are acknowledged in top 50 but are quite rare, only one tie in current top 50 for EWP): YEAR ____ CET _ rank ___ EWP _ rank ___ combined ranks ____ both exceed 2023 ____ 11.1 __ 2 ____ 1153.4 _ 8 ______ 10 ______________ 8 (projected, could be t2, 7 = 9, both exceed 7) 2014 ____ 11.0 __ 3 ____ 1105.6 _ 17 _____ 20 _____________ 17 (could be t2 for one dec CET) 2020 ____ 10.8 __ 5 ____ 1097.2 _ 19 _____ 24 _____________ 19 2002 ____ 10.6 __12 ___ 1117.9 _ 12 _____ 24 _____________ 12 (t8 for one dec CET) 2000 ____ 10.2 __35 ___ 1232.4 __ 4 _____ 39 _____________ 35 (t34 for one dec CET, 35 EWP) 2019 ____ 10.4 __26 ___ 1095.0 _ 20 _____ 46 _____________ 26 (t23rd for one dec CET) 1999 ____ 10.6 __10 ___ 1036.1 _ 42 _____ 52 _____________ 42 (t8 for one dec CET, 42 EWP) 1998 ____ 10.3 __33 ___ 1062.5 _ 32 _____ 65 _____________ 33 (t28 for one dec CET, 32 EWP) 2007 ____ 10.5 __13 ___ 1022.6 _ 53 _____ 66 _____________ 53 (t13 for one dec CET, 53 EWP) 1994 ____ 10.2 __36 ___ 1050.0 _ 38 _____ 70 _____________ 38 (t34 for one dec CET, 38 EWP) 1828 ____ 10.3 __30 ___ 1073.2 _ 30 _____ 60 _____________ 30 (t28 for one dec CET, 30 EWP) 2008 ____ 10.0 __57 ___ 1089.5 _ 24 _____ 81 ______________ 57 (t52 for one dec CET) (CET ranks of current top 20 EWP if not in top ranked in above list) Rank_EWP_YEAR __ CET _ rank (tied rank for one dec) 18_1098.6 1912 ____ 9.4 _154 (t143 one dec CET) 16_1108.2 1927 ____ 9.2 _189 (t189 one dec CET) t14_1109.3 1782 ___ 8.0 _ 351 (t351 one dec CET) t14_1109.3 1789 ___ 8.9 _ 261 (t257 one dec CET) 13_1116.8 1792 ____ 9.2 _203 (t189 one dec CET) 11_1130.1 1848 ____ 9.4 _148 (t143 one dec CET) 10_1144.1 1877 ____ 9.2 _200 (t189 one dec CET) 09_1146.2 1882 ____ 9.5 _137 (t124 one dec CET) 07_1160.3 1903 ____ 9.3 _163 (t160 one dec CET) 06_1195.0 1960 ____ 9.7 _ 88 (t88 one dec CET) 05_1213.0 1852 ____ 9.8 _ 78 (t71 one dec CET) 03_1244.4 2012 ____ 9.8 _ 86 (t71 one dec CET) 02_1247.3 1768 ____ 8.9 _258 (t257 one dec CET) 01_1284.9 1872 ____ 9.8 _ 87 (t71 one dec CET) EWP ranks of post-2023 CET annual top 20 if not in above list Rank_CET_YEAR __ EWP _ rank ___ CET tied rank for one dec + EWP (22) 10.5 _ 2004 __ 973.5 __ 84 ___ (t13 for one dec)+ 84 (21) 10.5 _ 2005 __ 825.1 _ 207 ___ (t13 for one dec)+207 20_ 10.5 _ 1995 __ 840.8 _ 190 ___ (t13 for one dec)+190 19_ 10.5 _ 2003 __ 761.6 _ 234 ___ (t13 for one dec)+234 18_ 10.5 _ 1997 __ 853.9 _ 179 ___ (t13 for one dec)+179 17_ 10.5 _ 1733 __ -- -- ___ not ranked EWP (t13 for one dec CET) 16_ 10.5 _ 1834 __ 835.2 _ 196 ___ (t13 for one dec)+196 15_ 10.5 _ 1921 __ 629.0 _ 257 ___ (t13 for one dec)+257 14_ 10.5 _ 1959 __ 827.8 _ 205 ___ (t13 for one dec)+205 11_ 10.6 _ 1990 __ 841.6 _ 189 ___ (t8 for one dec)+189 09_ 10.6 _ 2017 __ 952.5 _ 100 ___ (t8 for one dec)+100 08_ 10.6 _ 1949 __ 789.6 _ 225 ___ (t8 for one dec)+225 07_ 10.7 _ 2018 __ 912.2 _ 128 ___ (t6 for one dec)+128 06_ 10.7 _ 2011 __ 786.9 _ 226 ___ (t6 for one dec)+226 04_ 10.9 _ 2006 __ 904.7 _ 134 ___ (not tied if 2023 is 11.0) 01_ 11.1 _ 2022 __ 857.4 _ 175 ___ (not tied if 2023 is 11.0) (ranks 21-50 for EWP are almost all in low to mid 9 CET) (ranks 23-50 for CET, close to combined list indicated if EWP rank 51-81, year is in first list if EWP >50) 10.4 _ (t23 CET) 1989, 1868, 1779, 2019 (EWP 21st, in list of top combined), 2016 10.3 _ (t28 CET) 2015, 1736 (no EWP), 1828 (EWP 30th in list of top combined), 2021 (EWP 81st), 1945, 1998 (EWP 32nd, in list) 10.2 _ (t34 CET) 1938, 2000 (EWP 4t, in list of top combined), 1994 (EWP 38th, in list) 1781, 2009 (80th EWP), 1846, 1686 (not ranked EWP) 10.1 _ (t41 CET) 1831 (68th EWP), 1857, 1898, 1775 (61st EWP), 1826, 1911, 1822, 1730 (not ranked EWP), 1957, 1983, 1943 (actual CET ranks, indicated in order, count back (e.g. 1868 is ranked 24, 1943 is ranked 51) (ranks based on top 3 2023) Current top 50 EWP years, if 2023 ends up 8th ... current projected annual total (including Dec at 120 mm) 50_1024.9 1930 ___ 40_1038.3 1821 ___ 30_1073.2 1828 ___ 20_1095.0 2019 ___ 10_1144.1 1877 49_1027.0 1824 ___ 39_1048.5 1866 ___ 29_1076.2 1839 ___ 19_1097.2 2020 ___ 09_1146.2 1882 48_1028.0 1916 ___ 38_1050.0 1994 ___ 28_1079.0 1799 ___ 18_1098.6 1912 ___ 08_1153.4 est 2023 47_1028.2 1880 ___ 37_1051.1 1886 ___ 27_1079.4 1770 ___ 17_1105.6 2014 ___ 07_1160.3 1903 46_1028.3 1974 ___ 36_1052.2 1946 ___ 26_1082.7 1924 ___ 16_1108.2 1927 ___ 06_1195.0 1960 45_1031.8 1772 ___ 35_1057.0 1876 ___ 25_1083.2 1860 ___ 14t_1109.3 1782___ 05_1213.0 1852 44_1032.0 1965 ___ 34_1057.4 1958 ___ 24_1089.5 2008 ___ 14t_1109.3 1789___ 04_1232.4 2000 43_1033.8 1773 ___ 33_1061.0 1966 ___ 23_1090.4 1797 ___ 13_1116.8 1792 ___ 03_1244.4 2012 42_1036.1 1999 ___ 32_1062.5 1998 ___ 22_1092.6 1954 ___ 12_1117.9 2002 ___ 02_1247.3 1768 41_1037.2 1875 ___ 31_1064.4 1841 ___ 21_1094.6 1951 ___ 11_1130.1 1848 ___ 01_1284.9 1872 EWP began in 1766. Top 50 years in order (by centuries) 1768 1770 1772 1773 1782 1789 1792 1797 1799 (9 of 35, 26%) 1821 1824 1828 1839 1841 1848 1852 1860 1866 1872 1875 1876 1877 1880 1882 1886 (16 of 100, 16%) 1903 1912 1916 1924 1927 1930 1946 1951 1954 1958 1960 1965 1966 1974 1994 1998 1999 2000 (18 of 100, 18%) 2002 2008 2012 2014 2019 2020 2023 (7 of 23, 30%) frequent _ 1768-73, 1789-99, 1872-86, 1924-30, 1958-66, 1998-2002, 2008-14, 2019-2023 sparse ___ 1800 to 1820 (21 yrs, none); 1887 to 1902 (16 yrs, none); 1931-50 (20 yrs, one); 1967-1993 (27 yrs, one) on average, one every five years, but seven cases of consecutive, five additional separated by 2 yrs)

I got interested in year to year variations and wondered, what are the largest year to year changes in annual temperature? This seems to be decreasing in the recent past, as one might expect if climate is being modified by an external factor (increasing greenouse gases). In various epochs, these are the largest cooling changes year to year, over two years, three years, or any number of years. I took outlying warmest years as starting points, and looked for the most significant cooling changes in the period between those outliers and the next set. In columns C and D ( 2 yr and 3 yr drops ), no entry means that no drop was greater than the one documented for a shorter interval. Note a warmer year can exist than the starting peak, as with 1794 (9.9), if the next peak (like 1834 10.5) is higher and on way up to that, intervening nearly as warm years as next peak (such as 1828 at 10.3) exist. The long cycle (1794 to 1834) could be broken at sub-peaks 1806 or 1811 but all of the changes indicated would be in one or the other anyway. A _________________________ B _______________ C ___________ D ________________ E warm year __ CET _______ 1 yr drop _____ 2 yr drop ___ 3 yr drop ____ maximum drop from peak (col A) 1666 ________ 9.9 _________ 1.4 (66-67) ___ -- -- _________ -- -- __________ 2.0 (1666-1675) __ 9 yrs _____ 20 yrs to next peak 1686 ________10.2 ________ 1.2 (86-87) ___ 2.3 (86-88) __ -- -- __________ 2.9 (1686-1695) __ 9 yrs _____ 20 yrs to next peak 1706 _________ 9.8 ________ 1.0 (15-16) ___-- -- __________ -- -- __________ 1.4 (1706-1716) __10 yrs ____ 27 yrs to next peak 1733 ________10.5 _________2.3 (39-40) ___ 2.9 (38-40) __ 3.0 (37-40) __ 3.6 (1733-1740) ___ 7 yrs ____ 26,28 yrs to next peak(s) 1759,61 ____ 10.0 _________ 1.1 (75-76) ___1.1 (61-62) __ 1.3 (61-63) __ 1.5 (1761-1770) ___ 9 yrs _____ 20, 18 yrs to next peak 1779 _______ 10.4 __________2.2 (81-82) ___-- -- _______ 2.4 (79-82, 81-84) __2.6 (1779-84) __ 5 yrs _____ 15 yrs to next peak 1794 ________ 9.9 __________ 2.1 (28-29) ___-- -- _________ -- -- __________ 2.1 (1794-1814) ___20 yrs _____ 40 yrs to next peak 1834 _______ 10.5 __________1.7 (59-60) ___ -- -- _______2.2 (57-60) ____ 2.6 (1834-1860) ___26 yrs _____ 34 yrs to next peak 1868 _______ 10.4 __________1.9 (78-79) ___ -- -- ________2.1 (76-79) ____ 3.0 (1868-1879) ___11 yrs _____ 30 yrs to next peak 1898 _______ 10.1 __________1.0 (18-19) ___ -- -- __________ -- -- _________ 1.6 (1898-1917,19) _19,21 yrs __23 yrs to next peak 1921 _______ 10.5 __________1.8 (21-22) ___ -- -- __________ -- -- _________ 1.8 (1921-1922) ____ 1 yr ______ 28 yrs to next peak 1949 _______ 10.6 __________ 1.4 (61-62) ___ -- -- ________1.9 (59-62) ____ 2.1 (1949-1963) ___14 yrs _____ 41 yrs to next peak 1990 _______ 10.6 _______ 1.3 (95-96, 09-10) _ -- -- ______ 1.6 (07-10) ___ 2.0 (2006-2010) ____ 4 yrs _____ 32+ yrs to next peak 2022 ? _____ 11.1 __________ cycle not certain to begin 2022, if warmer year occurs soon, would call it a start if not exceeded by 2039 _________________________________________ It is possible that the trend will now be generally slowly rising and these longer cycles will be difficult to define. The QBO effect is clear, while only 2 of 13 cycles had a larger drop over two years than any one year drop (one had an equal drop), 7 of 13 bettered their one year drop over a three year interval. The range of largest drops was 1 to 26 years but had a cluster at around 9 to 11 years. The range of peak to peak cycle lengths was 15 to 41 years, the average was 28 years (assuming the cycle arbitrarily defined as 1990-2021 does not extend past 2022). Within these 13 long cycles (years 1659 to 1665 are the tail end of another cycle of unknown starting point), the largest inter-cycle drop from any internal sub-peak to coldest year was between 1.4 and 3.6 C deg. Average was about 2.2 C deg. A mean of 1.9 C exists since 1898. Amplitude of cycles is slowly decreasing over time and this is largely due to rising minima, only 1/3 offset by rising maxima. As an illustration, 2010 was 2.0 C warmer than coldest year 1740, 2022 was only 1.0 warmer than 1686, an early peak, and 1.4 warmer than any peak year selected (1706). Until natural variability provides a colder baseline, it seems logical to predict that future minima will be in the range 9 to 9.5, but even that could be optimistic. Even so, the sudden appearance of a very cold 1740 after a long interval of unusual warmth (1730s) would give some reason for optimism that a surprisingly cold year could happen. It is not known for sure if volcanic dust events led to the sudden cooling 1739-40, it is known that 1784, 1816 and 1880s, possibly also 1992, had coolings of that origin.

It's a rare RJS update of CET ... 4.7c to the 12th 0.1c above the 61 to 90 average (end of Dec) 0.2c below the 81 to 10 average (running 1-12 Dec) 0.6c below the 91 to 20 average (running 1-12 Dec)

(Don said 5.4 not looking good now ...) These may both be okay, in particular 5.4 does not look overly high, an average of 6.5 now to end will give an outcome near 5.5 and there are enough colder days in the mix to suggest 6.5 could be about right, would need to avoid full-on torch conditions with lows around Christmas but as of now signals are for mild in two peaks around Friday and middle of next week, will probably push CET towards low 6 range but could then fall back after 21st. Guesses under 4 C would need all cold spells to max potential including possibly a very cold turn after 26 Dec. Otherwise no chance for colder calls but 5.4 could be quite good.

EWP at about 70 mm and after another 10 or so by late Tuesday, looks to add only about 10 additional by 27th as trends go dry for a change. CET projection (GFS) is a gradual rise to 18 Dec to reach about 5.5, followed by a slump back to starting point of 4 C, but the rise is probably higher confidence than the later fall. So all bets from 4 to 6 C are probably in play. Personally I don't trust this current run and figure we will get into a more active pattern after 20 Dec.

Current projection to 25 Dec is around 4 to 4.5 C, a cold week expected to follow a relatively mild one. EWP projection is around 85-95 mm.

If we accept that the GFS 16-day is likely to be within 1 C, then by 24th the CET would be 4.5 give or take. That would leave the question in the hands of the currently unknown outcome of the last week of December. It seems unlikely that the question will be settled before Christmas, it could go either way.

I agree on EWP, my estimate is 45 mm to present time and 75-85 would be total by 23rd according to GFS (quite dry after 14th). I just posted in the Nov thread what that all means for annual totals and ranking of 2023, basically it suggests we are going to end up between 12th and 8th wettest year depending on what happens after the 23rd. For the CET, the cold start may be enough to overcome the milder trend for the next five or six days, as it then turns quite cold again for at least a week; my estimate is that CET will gradually rise to about 4.5 to 5.0 C at some point around a week from now, but will then drift back down towards 4 C as several days will only produce means of 1 to 3 C and at no point does it warm up again beyond about 4 or 5 C. Again, what happens from 24th to 31st, if all of that were accurate, would determine the fate of our forecasts, it could just as easily soar back up towards 5 or even 6 C, or drop down further towards the lowest forecasts we made in the 2 to 3 range. I was expecting a major energy peak around 25-27 Dec and again, if that occurs, it would be a wintry mix if we stay in a cold pattern, or a rain and wind event in a warmer turn. I would say odds of this now turning out as warmest year (it needs to be a 7.6 C Dec) are very long odds now, maybe a 1 in 20, and odds of all 12 months being above 1961-90 normals is a bit below a 50-50 proposition if not right on 50-50. (4.7 is needed for that, I think). If the GFS is correct, the last week would need to average above record high values of 11-12 C to get to 7.6, but would only need to average about 5.5 to 6.0 to get to 4.7, and that has often been the case in recent years with a tendency for higher values in the holiday period than earlier.

At 396.4 mm it was the 12th wettest autumn since EWP records began in 1766 and the second wettest since 2000 (wettest of all years, 502.7) behind only 5th wettest 2019 (410.9). You have to go up the list to 27th wettest 2022 and 29th wettest 2002 to find the rest of the top five of 24 years so far in the 2000's. 2012 is in 31st place, but then it's a drop down to 74th to find seventh recent entry, 2009. As of today's EWP estimate of 45 mm (and quickly rising), the annual precip is around 1078 mm, already good for 29th wettest year, but the pace slows down after this weekend and GFS currently projects a value near 1120 mm by 23rd, good for 12th place overall. A top ten finish is possible but top five are beginning to look out of reach. There would need to be a further 93 mm in last week of Dec if estimates are close to being correct, to reach the value of fifth place 1852 (1213 mm) and 147 mm more to tie second place 1798 at 1247.3 mm. Then it would require 184 mm in the last week to tie 1872, wettest year (1284.9 mm). It was also the third warmest autumn at 12.2 behind only 1976 (12.6) and 2011 (12.4), and ahead of 2022 (12.1) and 2014 (12.0). In the top thirty-seven (where we found six wet autumns), we find a total of 15 out of 24 years since 2000 in the warmth category. There are four more by 77th, so 19/24 warm against just 7/24 wet. 2021 was 8th warmest and so the past three autumns ranked 3rd, 4th and 8th. It compares to only one other set, 1729 to 1731 which ranked t9, t6 and t6.

Autumn 2023 EWP _ Scoring for all entrants (2/3 or 3/3 contests) _01 ___ J 10 ____________________ 25.45 _02 ___ Weather Observer _____24.24 _03 ___ February1978 __________23.70 _04 ___ Jeff C ___________________23.27 _05 ___ summer blizzard ______ 22.64 _06 ___ virtualsphere __________ 22.61 _07 ___ Summer Shower_______ 22.20 _08 ___ rwtwm _________________ 22.01 _09 ___ bobd29 _________________21.74 _10 ___ Godber 1 ______________ 21.14 _11 ___ summer18 _____________ 19.90 _(12) __ average 1991-2020 ___ 19.84 _12 ___ Emmett Garland _______ 19.82 _13 ___ DR(S)NO _______________ 19.42 _14 ___ Moorlander ___________ 18.83 _15 ___ Mr Maunder ___________ 18.63 _16___ Reef ____________________18.46 _(16) __ Consensus _____________18.44 _17 ___ Earthshine _____________17.68 _18 ___ Midlands Ice Age ______ 17.65 _19 ___ snowray _______________ 17.45 _20 ___ Roger J Smith __________17.11 _21 ___ seaside60 ______________17.04 _22 ___ davehsug ______________16.59 _23 ___ Leo97t _________________16.56 _24 ___ Alexis J 9 _______________16.40 (2/3) _25 ___ stewfox ________________ 16.14 (2/3) _26 ___ chilly milly ______________15.48 _27 ___ mazelike _______________ 15.45 _28 ___ Frigid ___________________15.03 _29 ___ Metwatch ______________ 14.86 _30 ___prolongedSnowLover __ 14.53 _31 ___ summer8906 __________ 14.18 _32 ___ Stationary Front _______ 14.02 _33 ___ SteveB _________________ 13.02 _34 ___ I Remember Atl252 ____ 12.72 _35 ___ jonboy _________________ 12.69 _36 ___ The PIT _________________12.53 _37 ___ Methuselah ____________ 12.20 _38 ___ Polar Gael ______________12.16 _39 ___ catbrainz ______________ 11.76 _40 ___ dancerwithwings ______ 11.19 _41 ___ Wold Topper ___________11.18 _42 ___ Somerset girl __________ 10.99 _43 ___ B87 ____________________10.50 _44 ___ Weather26 _____________10.00 _45 ___ Mulzy ___________________ 9.93 _46 ___ Neil N __________________ 9.54 _47 ___ noname_weather_______ 9.48 (2/3) _48 ___ shillitocettwo ___________ 8.87 _49 ___ Feb1991Blizzard ________ 8.30 _50 ___ daniel* __________________7.98 _51 ___ WYorksWeather _________7.28 (2/3) _52 ___ syed2878 _______________ 6.69 _53 ___ Don _____________________6.31 _54 ___ sunny_vale _____________ 4.54 (2/3) _55 ___ AddicksFan1981 ________4.18 (2/3)

NOV final EWP reported as 127.8 mm, final EWP scoring ... Final EWP contest scores and Nov forecasts (scores now adjusted) Rank (prev) _ FORECASTER ________ n __ TOTAL PTS ___ AVG ERROR (rank)__ Nov forecast, score (rank) _01 __ 01 ___ snowray ____________ 12 ___ 84.20 ________ 28.61 ( 5 ) _ ( 6 ) ____157.0 ___ 4.78 (30) _02 __ 03 ___ bobd29 ______________12 ___ 79.29 ________ 27.79 ( 3 ) _ (t4) ____ 103.6 ___ 5.30 (27) _03 __ 07 ___ Weather Observer ___12 ___ 78.72 ________ 29.12 ( 9 ) _ (12) ___ 121.0 ___ 8.74 ( 8. ) _04 __ 08 ___ February1978 ________12 ___ 78.70 ________ 28.98 ( 6 ) _ (13) ___ 132.0 ___ 9.10 ( 5 ) _6 lev _05 __ 06 ___ Leo97t _______________12 ___ 78.65 ________ 29.03 ( 7 ) _ (11) ____120.0 ___ 7.92 (13) _ (2nd ent) _06 __ 02 ___ Reef _________________ 12 ___ 78.47 ________ 29.08 ( 8 ) _ ( 3 ) ____172.0 ___ 2.46 (43) _07 __ 05 ___ Jeff C _________________12 ___ 77.43 ________ 29.27 (10) _ (10) ____145.0 ___ 6.30 (22) (2nd ent) _08 __ 09 ___ Summer Shower_____ 11 ___ 75.93 ________ 26.83* ( 1 )__( 1 ) ___ 94.0 ____3.54 (36) _09 __ 08 ___ virtualsphere ________ 12 ___ 75.29 ________ 28.42 ( 4 )_ ( 7 ) ____149.0 ___ 5.68 (25) _10 __ 14 ___ J 10 ___________________12 ___ 74.36 ________ 29.35 (11) _ (14)____130.0 ___ 9.82 ( 2 ) _11 __ 13 ___ DR(S)NO _____________ 12 ___ 71.81 ________ 31.74 (15) _ (18) ___ 117.1 ___ 7.12 (17) _12 __ 19 ___ Midlands Ice Age ____ 12 ___ 70.04 ________ 33.49 (20) _ (22) ____134.9 ___ 8.38 (10 ) _13 __ 11 ___ jonboy _______________12 ___ 69.35 ________ 33.00 (17) _ (17) ____162.0 ___ 3.42 (37) _14 __ 16 ___prolongedSnowLover _12 ___ 69.26 ________ 29.75 (12) _ ( 9 ) ____103.0 ___ 5.10 (28) _15 __ 10 ___ Emmett Garland _____12 ___ 68.99 ________ 31.77 (16) _ ( 8 ) ____186.0 ___ 1.06 (50) _16 __ 20 ___ seaside60 ____________12 ___ 68.68 ________ 34.92 (25) _ (30) ____ 120.0 ___ 7.42 (15) _(4th ent, 1d late) _17 __ 12 ___ Polar Gael ____________12 ___ 66.88 ________ 34.48 (t21)_ (16) ____ 75.2 ___ 1.80 (46) _18 __ 17 ___ Mulzy ________________ 12 ___ 66.79 ________ 34.48 (t21)_ (20) ____ 97.0 ____ 4.08 (34) _(2nd ent) _19 __ 18 ___ summer18 ___________ 12 ___ 66.72 ________ 31.57 (14) _ (15) ___ 101.0 ___ 4.92 (29) _20 __ 21 ___ Stationary Front ______12 ___ 66.45 ________ 33.05 (18) _ (19) ____112.0 ___ 6.94 (18) _21 __ 15 ___ Roger J Smith ________ 12 ___ 66.05 ________ 29.82 (13) _ ( 2 ) ____182.5 ___ 1.66 (47) _22 __ 22 ___ dancerwithwings _____12 ___ 63.30 ________ 36.80 (33) _ (28) ____ 97.0 ___ 4.18 (33) _23 __ 24 ___ Wold Topper _________12 ___ 60.87 ________ 36.64 (30) _ (31) ____103.7 ___ 5.49 (26) _24 __ 23 ___ Feb1991Blizzard _____ 12 ___ 60.42 ________ 36.01 (29) _ (t23) ___ 159.0 ___ 3.78 (35) _25 __ 27 ___ Mr Maunder __________12 ___ 59.96 ________ 36.65 (31) _ (32) ____111.0 ___ 6.58 (20) _26 __ 30 ___ Godber 1 _____________12 ___ 58.74 ________ 36.70 (32) _ (38) ____126.0 ___ 10.00 (1) _27 __ 32 ___ rwtwm _______________ 12 ___ 58.11 ________ 34.57 (23) _ (35) ____124.0 ___ 9.46 ( 4 ) _28 __ 26 ___ daniel* _______________ 12 ___ 56.24 ________ 42.03 (46) _ (42) ____ 80.0 ___ 2.20 (44) _29 __ 33 ___ The PIT _______________12 ___ 56.04 ________ 39.78 (42) _ (46) ____120.0 ___ 7.82 (14) _(3rd ent) _30 __ 25 ___ I Remember Atl252 ___11 ___ 55.35 ________ 39.27*(41) _ (29) ___188.0 ___ 0.80 (51) _31 __ 31 ___ summer8906 __________8 ___ 54.76 ________ 27.26*( 2 ) _ (t4) ___110.0 ___ 6.04 (23) _32 __ 36 ___ davehsug _____________12 ___ 53.35 ________ 38.48 (38) _ (43) ____124.0 ___ 9.06 (6) (2nd ent, 1d late) _33 __ 28 ___ Don __________________ 12 ___ 52.71 ________ 40.10 (t43)_ (t33) ____185.0 ___ 1.46 (48) _34 __ 29 ___ Weather26 ___________ 11 ___ 52.61 ________ 37.07*(34) _ (t23) ___ 84.0 ____ 2.60 (42) _35 __ 38 ___ noname_weather_____11 ___ 50.91 ________ 35.90*(28) _(t33) ____121.0 ___ 8.64 (9) _ (2nd ent) _36 __ 34 ___ summer blizzard _____ 12 ___ 49.81 ________ 39.45 (40) _ (41) ____ 98.0 ___ 4.44 (32) (2nd ent) _37 __ 37 ___ Methuselah ___________12 ___ 48.23 ________ 40.73 (45) _ (45) ___ 107.0 ___ 5.86 (24) _38 __ 42 ___ Frigid _________________ 12 ___ 46.28 ________ 44.25 (50) _ (54) ____120.0 ___ 8.02 (12) _39 __ 43 ___ stewfox ________________ 8 ___ 45.69 ________ 35.33*(27) _ (32) ___ 135.0 ___ 8.20 (11) _40 __ 45 ___ Metwatch _____________ 11 ___ 45.39 ________ 42.53*(47) _(50) ____123.0 ___ 8.92 (7) _41 __ 40 ___ SteveB ________________ 12 ___ 45.76 ________ 43.08 (48) _ (47) ____ 98.0 ___ 4.54 (31) _42 __ 35 ___ shillitocettwo _________ 12 ___ 45.10 ________ 49.13 (55) _ (51) ____ 44.0 ___ 0.00 (55) _43 __ 46 ___ Moorlander ___________ 12 ___ 44.00 ________ 43.77 (49) _ (53) ____ 130.0 ___ 9.72 (3) _ (2nd ent) _44 __ 39 ___ Mapantz _______________ 8 ___ 42.18 ________ 35.21*(26) _ (26) ____ no fcst _45 __ 41 ___ Neil N _________________ 11 ___ 41.89 ________ 45.05*(52) _ (49) ____ 90.0 ___ 3.24 (38) _46 __ 44 ___ syed2878 ______________ 12 ___ 40.26 ________ 44.97 (51) _ (48) ____ 90.0 ___ 3.04 (40) (3rd ent) _47 __ 49 ___ chilly milly _____________12 ___ 34.34 ________ 51.76 (56) _ (56) _____ 79.0 ___ 2.00 (45) _48 __ 47 ___ DiagonalRedLine _______ 6 ___ 33.52 ________ 34.64*(24) _ (25) ____ no fcst _49 __ 53 ___ catbrainz _______________ 8 ___ 33.08 ________ 40.10*(t43)_ (44) ____144.0 ___ 6.76 (19) _50 __ 48 ___ Norrance _______________ 8 ___ 32.65 ________ 37.36*(35) _ (37) ____ no fcst _51 __ 50 ___ freeze __________________ 5 ___ 31.95 ________ 33.39*(19) _ (21) ____ no fcst _52 __ 51 ___ B87 _____________________7 ___ 30.35 ________ 39.36*(39) _ (36) ____ 90.0 ___ 3.14 (39) _(2nd ent) _53 __ 54 ___ Earthshine _____________10 ___ 27.29 ________ 49.03*(54) _ (55) ____ 70.0 ___ 1.20 (49) _54 __ 52 ___ SLEETY _________________ 7 ___ 27.10 ________ 37.95*(37) _ (40) ____ no fcst _55 __ 56 ___ sunny_vale _____________ 9 ___ 26.21 ________ 46.69*(53) _ (52) ____ 87.0 ___ 2.80 (41) _56 __ 55 ___ Cymro __________________ 4 ___ 26.11 ________ 36.88 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst _57 __ 57 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather ______ 5 ___ 19.01 ________ 37.85*(36) _ (39) ___ no fcst _58 __ 58 ___ Coventry Weather ______ 2 ____19.00 _________ 8.25 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst _59 __ 59 ___ Blast From the Past _____4 ___ 18.63 _________44.13 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst _60 __ 60 ___ Somerset Girl ___________4 ___ 17.95 _________48.53 (---) _ (---) ____ 60.0 ___ 0.20 (54) _61 __ 61 __ Thundery Wintry Showers_ 4 ___17.04 _______ 32.58 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst _62 __t66 ___ Alexis J 9 ________________ 2 ____16.40 _________ 9.75 (---) _ (---) _____145.0 ___ 6.40 (21) _63 __ 62 ___ Weather Enthusiast91 __ 2 ___ 15.86 ________ 21.25 ( ---) _ (---) ____ no fcst _64 __ 72 ___ mazelike ________________ 3 ____15.45 ________ 43.17 (---) _ (---) ____137.0 ___ 7.30 (16) _65 __ 64 ___ Let It Snow! _____________ 3 ___ 14.06 _________ 51.47 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst _67 __ 65 ___ john88b _________________ 3 ___ 12.12 ________ 38.33 ( --- ) _ (---) ___ 67.0 ___ 0.60 (52) _76 __ 77 ___ WYorksWeather _________ 2 ____ 7.28 ________ 64.75 (---) _ (---) ____190.0 ___ 0.40 (53) (only Nov entrants are shown after 66th place in annual contest) (only entrants with 5-9 entries have a ranked adjusted average error) ========================= (7.6) _(9.7) __ Consensus _____________ 12 ___ 76.58 _______ 31.40 (14.0) (17.9) __120.0 ___ 8.02 (12) (8.2) _(5.4) __ 1981-2010 average _____12 ___ 75.83 _______ 28.88 ( 7.1) _( 6.9) __100.4 ___ 4.85 (29.3) (10.7) (10.6) __1991-2020 average ____12 ___ 72.40 _______ 29.60 (12.7) _( 9.7) __106.1 ___ 5.62 (25.3) (12.1)(11.7) _ 1993-2022 average _____ 12 ___ 70.92 _______ 30.32 (13.3) _(11.1) __104.7 ___ 5.55 (25.7) ======================== will give a top ten autumn EWP next.

So that is the tenth coldest start to DEC in 252 tries, see list of top ten above ... replaces 1889 (0.2) in tenth. Looks like a brief spell of higher readings later in week but this won't be a one and done sort of thing like the cold in 1947-48 for instance. I think the Russian bear will be prowling at later points of the winter.

I wasn't there personally but I read on Irish weather sites that parts of Wicklow and Wexford had near 70 cm snowfalls from storm Emma 28 Feb into 1 mar 2018. One person said snow was so heavy that it crushed a barn roof. Amounts of 40 cm were reported in Dublin both then, and around 28 Nov and 21 Dec 2010 during epic cold northeasterly winds. I could give you a long list of personal obs from Canada, my own heaviest snowfall actually seen was about 80 cm in early April 1975, a storm that was followed by clear, cold weather and daily freeze-thaw cycles combined with strong winds to create drifts that froze solid at night after softening up in the glare of April sun. This was about 150 km north of Toronto. I also saw aftermath of 150 cm falls in Jan 1976 in London, ON, drifts and piles were still up to about 3m in height a week after the snow fell. As another reader posted, Ontario snow belts get very heavy falls and very sharp dividing lines between piles of snow and no snow at all. I now live near a ski resort, snowfall around here is adequate for that but not often excessive on a daily basis, it tends to keep coming a few cm a day for weeks on end. Vancouver BC does not always see a lot of winter snow but a couple of winters out of twenty-five recent ones managed one or two 30-40 cm storms.

Combined ranks for CET, EWP (contest year) CET-only forecasters are inserted into table at position of their CET rank. First column in table is rank of the average rank for the two contests. Average errors are shown with their ranks also. For CET entrants with 3 or more missed forecasts, no official rank, but I calculated one based on points total, and the decimal shows exactly where that point total fits into ranks of qualifying forecasters. CET error rank for them is based on a similar comparison except that some will be tied with ranked forecasters. Summer8906 (8 of 12) and Thundery Wintry Showers had better average errors than any ranked CET forecasters and are shown at ranks 0.5 and 0.4 for CET average error. EWP average errors are from one list down to 5/12 entries. They are adjusted with insertions of (consensus + 5) errors for months missed. CET average errors for 2-3 forecasts not ranked. Only NOV entrants are included in table for fewer than 3 forecasts. CET ranks for points totals lower than 51st qualifying forecasters are shown as t52 whatever they ranked below 51st, and points totals for 2-3 entries not ranked (shown as t52) as average error inflated point totals, this was probably the case for several with 4-9 entries as well but I thought they had participated enough to establish form. CET average errors not ranked for 2-3 entries. ... EWP ranks and errors subject to small adjustments on 5 Dec. ... <<< RANKS >>> ____ ___ ___ ____________________ ______ ____ CET (deg) _____ EWP (mm) comb _ CET_EWP __ avg __ FORECASTER ______entries __ avg errors (ranks) CET/EWP _01 ___ 03 __ 05 ____ 4.0 __ Leo97t _______________12 ______ 0.68 (t3) _____ 29.03 (7) _ --- ___ 05 __ --- ___ (5 CET)_ Summer Sun _______ 12 ______ 0.69 (5) ______ --- _02 ___ 01 __ 11 ____ 6.0 __ DR(S)NO _____________ 12 ______ 0.62 (1) _____ 31.74 (15) _03 ___ 07 __ 06 ____ 6.5 __ Reef _________________ 12 ______ 0.70 (t6) _____ 29.08 (8.) _04 ___ 12 __ 04 ____ 8.0 __ February1978 ________12 ______ 0.76 (10) ____ 28.98 (6) _05 ___ 20 __ 01 ___ 10.5 __ snowray _____________ 12 ______ 0.83 (t15) ___ 28.61 (5) _06 ___ 17 __ 03 ___ 10.0 __ Weather Observer ___12 ______ 0.92 (24) ____ 29.12 (9) _--- ___ 10 __ --- __ (10 CET) _Mark Bayley ________ 12 ______ 0.71 (8 ) _____ --- _--- ____11 __ --- __ (11 CET) _damianslaw ________ 12 ______ 0.77 (12) ____ --- _07 ___ 02 __ 22 ___ 12.0 __ dancerwithwings ____ 12 ______ 0.68 (t3) _____ 36.80 (33) _08 ___15 __ 14 ___ 14.5 ___prolongedSnowLover_12 ______0.80 (14) ____ 29.75 (12) _09 ___18 __ 12 ___ 15.0 __ Midlands Ice Age _____ 12 ______ 0.84 (17) ____ 33.49 (20) _t10___ 09 __ 24 ___ 16.5 __ Feb1991Blizzard _____ 12 ______ 0.79 (t11) ___ 36.01 (29) _t10___ 04 __ 29 ___ 16.5 __ The PIT _______________12 ______ 0.75 (9) ______39.78 (42) _t12 ___13 __ 25 ___ 19.0 __ Mr Maunder _________ 12 ______ 0.83 (t15) ____36.65 (31) _t12 ___t22 __08 __ 15.0 __ Summer Shower______ 11 _____ 0.90 (23) _____ 26.83 ( 1 ) _ 14 ___14 __ 23 ___ 18.5 __ Wold Topper _________12 ______ 0.79 (t11) ____ 36.64 (30) _ 15 ___28 __ 10 ___ 19.0 __ J 10 __________________ 12 ______ 0.97 (t27) ____ 29.35 (11) _16 ___ 07 __ 33 ___ 20.0 __ Don __________________ 12 ______ 0.70 (t6) _____ 40.10 (t43) _17 ___ 25 __ 16 ___ 20.5 __ seaside60 ____________ 12 ______ 0.91 (24) _____ 34.92 (25) _18 __ 12.2 _ 31 ___ 21.6 __ summer8906 __________8 _______0.48 ( 0.5 ) ___ 27.26 ( 2 ) _19 ___ 32 __ 02 ___ 22.0 __ bobd29 _______________12 ______ 1.06 (32) _____ 27.79 ( 3 ) _20 ___t36 __ 09 ___ 22.5 __ virtualsphere _________12 ______ 1.18 (38) _____ 28.42 ( 4 ) _t21___ 06 __ 40 ___ 23.0 __ Metwatch _____________11 ______ 0.63 (2) ______ 42.53 (47) _t21___ 21 __ 27 ___ 24.0 __ rwtwm _______________ 12 ______ 0.87 (t20)_____ 34.57 (23) _t21___ 35 __ 13 ___ 24.0 __ jonboy ________________12 ______ 1.23 (t39) ____ 33.00 (17) _24 ___ 29 __ 21 ___ 25.0 __ Roger J Smith _________12 ______ 0.97 (t27) ____ 29.82 (13) _t25___ 19 __ 32 ___ 25.5 __ davehsug _____________12 ______ 0.83 (t15) ____ 38.48 (38) _t25___ 33 __ 18 ___ 25.5___ Mulzy ________________ 11 ______ 1.09 (33) _____ 34.48 (t21) _ --- ___ 27 __ --- ___(27 CET)_Typhoon John _______ 12 ______ 0.97 (t27) ____ -- -- _ 27 ___ 45 __ 07 ___ 26.0 __ Jeff C _________________12 ______ 1.28 (42) _____ 29.27 (10) _28 ___ 40 __ 15 ___ 27.5 __ Emmett Garland _____ 12 _______1.24 (41) _____ 31.77 (16) _--- ___ 27.7 __--- ___(CET) _ Man with Beard _______ 5 _______ 0.70 (6.0) _____ --- _29 ___ 39 __ 19 ___ 29.0 __ summer18 ___________ 12 _______1.18 (37) _____ 31.57 (14) _t30___t22 __ 37 ___ 29.5 __ Methuselah __________12 _______ 0.93 (t25) ____ 40.73 (45) _t30___ 24 __ 35 ___ 29.5 __ noname_weather_____11 _______ 0.87 (t20) ____ 35.90 (28) _32 ___ 41 __ 20 ___ 30.5 __ Stationary Front ______12 _______ 1.30 (43) _____ 33.05 (18) _33 ___ 34 __ 30 ___ 32.0 __ I Remember Atl252 ___11 _______ 1.11 (34) _____ 39.27 (41) _34 ___ 26 __ 41 ___ 33.5 __ SteveB ________________12 _______ 0.93 (t25) ____ 43.08 (48) _35 ___30 __ 38 ___ 34.0 __ Frigid _________________ 12 ________1.00 (31) _____ 44.25 (50) _t34___ 51 __ 17 ___ 34.0 __ Polar Gael ____________ 12 _______2.09 (51) _____ 34.48 (t21) _37 ___13.8__ 55 ___ 34.4 __ sunny_vale ____________9 _______ 0.66 (2.6) _____ 46.69 (53) _ 38 __ 16 __ 53 ___ 34.5 __ Earthshine ____________10 _______ 0.86 (19) _____ 49.03 (54) _ 39___t36 __34 ___ 35.0 ___ Weather26 ___________11 _______ 1.14 (36) _____ 37.07 (34) _t40___ 44 __ 28 ___ 36.0 __ daniel* _______________ 12 _______ 1.39 (45) _____ 42.03 (46) _t40___t36 __ 36 ___ 36.0 __ summer blizzard _____ 12 _______ 1.12 (34) _____ 39.45 (40) _42 ___23.3 __49 __ 36.2 ___ catbrainz ______________8 ________ 0.69 (5.0) ____ 40.10 (t43) _43 ___ 32 __ 43 ___ 37.5 __ Moorlander ___________12 _______ 0.99 (30) _____ 43.77 (49) _44 ___ 50 __ 26 ___ 38.0 __ Godber 1 _____________ 12 _______ 1.48 (47) _____ 36.70 (32) _45 ___34.0 _ 44 ___ 39.0 __ Mapantz ______________ 8 ________ 0.91 (24.0) ___ 35.21 (26) _46 ___40.7__39 ___ 39.9 __ stewfox ________________8 _______ 1.20 (38.4) ___ 35.33 (27) _47 ___30.8 __50 __ 40.4 __ Norrance ______________ 8 _______ 0.84 (17.0) ____ 37.36 (35) _ --- ___40.6 __ --- _(CET) __ Quicksilver1989 ________ 6 _______ 0.98 (28.5) ____ --- _48 ___21.8__61 ___ 41.4 _Thundery Wintry Showers_ 4 _____0.38 (0.4) _____ 32.58 (---) _--- ___ 42 __ --- ___(42 CET)_ Walsall Wood Snow _ 12 _______ 1.23 (t39) ____ --- _--- ___ 43 __ --- ___(43 CET)_ Kentish Man _________12 _______ 1.37 (44) ____ --- _49 ___ 35.8__51 __ 43.4 ___ freeze _________________ 5 _______ 0.86 (19.0) ___ 33.39 (19) _50 ___ 39.5__48 __ 43.8 ___ DiagonalRedLine ______6 _______ 0.97 (t27) ____ 34.64 (24) _51 ___ 47 __ 42 ___ 44.5 __ shillitocettwo _________ 12 _______ 1.68 (50) ____ 49.13 (55) _52 ___ 46 __ 46 ___ 46.0 __ syed2878 _____________ 12 _______ 1.53 (t48) ____ 44.97 (51) _53 ___ 48 __ 45 ___ 46.5 __ Neil N _________________11 _______ 1.43 (46) _____ 45.05 (52) _54 ___ 49 __ 47 ___ 48.0 __ chilly milly ____________ 12 ________1.53 (t48) ____ 51.76 (56) _55 __ 47.3__ 52 ___ 49.7 __ B87 _____________________7 _______ 1.21 (38.6) ___ 39.36 (39) _56 __ 48.9__ 54 ___ 51.5 __ SLEETY _________________ 7 _______ 1.43 (46.0) ___ 37.95 (37) _t57__ 50.7__ 56 ___ 53.4 __ Cymro __________________4 ________1.63 (49.5) ___ 36.88 (---) _t57__ 46.7__ 60 ___ 53.4 __ Somerset Girl ___________4 _______ 1.15 (36.3) ___ 49.03 (---) _59 __ t52 __ 57 ___ 54.5 __ Kirkcaldy Weather ______ 5 _______ 2.43 (t52) ____ 37.85 (36) _60 __ t52 __ 59 ___ 55.5 __ Blast From the Past _____4 _______ 1.85 (50.5) ___ 44.13 (---) _61 __ t52 __ 62 ___ 57.0 __ Alexis J 9 ________________ 2 _______ 0.45 (---) ______ 8.65 (---) _62 __ t52 __ 63 ___ 57.5 __ mazelike ________________ 3 _______ 0.83 (---) _____ 33.70 (---) _63 __ t52 __ 62 ___ 57.0 __ Weather Enthusiast91 __ 2 _______0.38 (---) _____ 21.25 ( ---) _64 __ t52 __ 63 ___ 57.5 __ Addicks Fan 1981 _______ 3 _______1.33 (---) _____ 57.77 (---) _65 __ t52 __ 64 ___ 58.0 __ Let It Snow! _____________ 3 _______ 1.10 (---) _____ 51.47 (---) _66 __ t52 __ 67 ___ 59.5 __ john88b _________________3 _______ 0.73 (---) _____ 31.40 ( --- ) _67 __ t52 __ 74 ___ 63.0 __ WYorksWeather _________2 _______ 0.60 (---) _____ 63.65 (---)

Analysis of scoring for recent normals and our consensus _________________________________ Forecasts _______________ Errors ___________ Rank _______ "Robot" Forecaster _________ CET ___ EWP ___________ CET __ EWP ____ CET __ EWP 1981-2010 average DEC ___ 4.5 ____ 97.4 ____________ +1.1 __-4.6 _____ 55 ____ 2.3 1981-2010 average JAN ___ 4.4 _____ 93.0 ____________ -0.8 __ -4.8 _____ 40 ___ 18.5 1981-2010 average FEB ___ 4.4 _____ 66.5 ___________ -2.1 __ +52.5 ____ 40 ___ 37.0 1981-2010 average MAR ___6.6 _____ 71.5 ___________ -0.4 __ -65.3 _____13 ___17.2 1981-2010 average APR ___ 8.5 _____ 64.8 ___________ -0.2 __ -12.1 _____11 ___ 23.2 1981-2010 average MAY __11.7 _____ 63.6 ___________ -0.8 __+20.1 _____50 ___ 24.6 1981-2010 average JUN ___14.4 _____ 66.3 ___________-2.6 __+16.3 _____44 ___ 44.2 1981-2010 average JUL____16.6 _____ 67.3 ___________+0.5 __-62.2 ______ 6 ___ 28.4 1981-2010 average AUG __ 16.5 _____ 75.6 ___________ 0.0 __ +0.6 _______3 ___ 0.8* 1981-2010 average SEP ___ 14.0 _____ 77.2 ___________-3.0 __-13.8 ______58 ___5.5 1981-2010 average OCT ___ 10.5 _____104.1___________-1.6 __-73.2 ______58 ___24.2 1981-2010 average NOV ____ 7.0 _____ 100.4 __________-0.4 __-27.3 ______28 ___29.2 *rank 0.8 for AUG EWP was better than all forecasters (error 0.6, their low error 2.0). For CET I rounded 16.45 (1981-2010 value now in v2.0.1.0) up to 16.5. Even so, 1981-2010 was clearly a very accurate forecast of Aug 2023. ---------------- 1991-2020 average DEC ___ 4.8 ____103.6 ____________ +1.4 __+1.6 _____ 63 ___ 0.4 1991-2020 average JAN ___ 4.7 _____ 94.2 _____________ -0.5 __ -3.6 _____ 28 ___ 17.8 1991-2020 average FEB ___ 5.0 _____ 72.4 _____________ -1.5 __ 58.4 ____ 39 ___ 40.3 1991-2020 average MAR ___6.7 _____ 65.4 _____________ -0.3 __-71.4 ____11 ___ 30.6 1991-2020 average APR ___ 9.0 _____ 63.2 _____________ +0.3 __-13.7 ____16 ___ 25.1 1991-2020 average MAY ___11.9 ____ 62.7 ______________-0.6 __ 19.2 ____42 ___ 21.1 1991-2020 average JUN ___ 14.6 ____ 70.5 ______________ -2.4 __20.5 ____ 50 ___ 47.2 1991-2020 average JUL ____16.8 ____ 72.0 ______________ +0.7__-57.5_____10 ___ 22.0 1991-2020 average AUG ___16.6 ____ 82.3 ______________+0.2 __ +7.3 _____ 6 ____ 9.6 1991-2020 average SEP ___ 14.2 ____ 76.0 ______________-2.8 __-15.0 _____ 56 ___ 6.0 1991-2020 average OCT ___ 10.8 ____102.9______________-1.3 __-74.4 _____ 56 __ 24.5 1991-2020 average NOV ____ 7.3 ____106.1 _____________ -0.1__-21.6 ______ 5 __ 25.1 --------------- 1992-2021 average DEC ___ 4.9 ____105.5 _____________ +1.5 __+3.5 _____ 65 ___ 0.9 1993-2022 average JAN ___ 4.7 _____ 95.4 _____________ -0.5 __ -2.4 _____ 28 ___ 13.5 1993-2022 average FEB ___ 5.1 _____ 74.9 _____________-1.4 __ +60.5 ____ 36 ___ 41.4 1993-2022 average MAR ___ 6.7 _____63.6 _____________-0.3 __ -73.2 ____ 11 ___ 32.7 1993-2022 average APR ____8.9 _____59.8 _____________ +0.2 __-17.1 ____ 11 ___ 32.2 1993-2022 average MAY ___11.9 ____ 66.6 _____________ -0.6 ___ 23.1 ____ 42 ___ 29.8 1993-2022 average JUN ____14.7 ____ 69.5 _____________-2.3 ___ 19.5 ____ 49 ___ 45.8 1993-2022 average JUL ____ 16.9 ____ 70.5 ____________ +0.8 __ -59.0_____ 14 ___ 22.7 1993-2022 average AUG ___ 16.6 ____ 79.9 ____________ +0.2 __ +4.9 ______ 6 ____ 2.9 1993-2022 average SEP ____ 14.3 ____ 75.9 ____________ -2.7 __ -15.1 _____ 56 ___ 6.1 1993-2022 average OCT ____ 11.0 ____106.1 ____________-1.1 __ -71.2 _____ 53 ___ 21.7 1993-2022 average NOV _____ 7.4 ___ 104.7 _____________ 0.0 __ -23.0 _____ 1 ___ 25.6 ----------------- consensus DEC ____________ 3.5 ____ 63.0 ______________ +0.1 __-39.0 _____ 04 __ 39 consensus JAN _____________5.1 ____ 99.5 _______________-0.1 __ +1.7 _____ 1.5 __ 5.9 consensus FEB ____________ 5.4 ____ 65.0 _______________-1.1 __ +51.0 ____ 29 ___ 31 consensus MAR ___________ 5.9 ____ 67.0 _______________-1.1 __ -69.8 ____ 27 ___ 25 consensus APR ____________ 9.0 ____ 65.0 _______________+0.3 __-11.9 ____ 16 ___ 20 consensus MAY ____________12.3 ___ 65.0 _______________-0.2 __ 21.5 _____ 23 ___ 25 consensus JUN _____________15.4 ___ 50.0 _______________-1.6 __ +1.2 _____26 ___ 11 consensus JUL _____________ 17.6 ___ 68.0 ______________ +1.5 __-61.5 ____ 30 ___ 27 consensus AUG ____________16.8 ___ 82.7 ______________ +0.4 __ +7.7 ____ 16 ____10 consensus SEP _____________15.5 ___ 56.0 ______________ -1.5 __ -35.0 ____ 30 ____26 consensus OCT _____________12.5 ___ 98.0 ______________ +0.4 __ -79.3 ____19 ___ 28 consensus NOV _____________ 7.4 ___120.0 ______________ 0.0 ___ -7.7 _____ 1 ____ 12 ======================= "Robot Forecaster" _______________________________________ avg err ________ avg rank - - - - - - - - - - - - - -_________________________________________ CET __ EWP ____CET __ EWP 1981-2010 mean of 11 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________1.13 __28.87 ___ 34.4 __ 21.2 1991-2020 mean of 11 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________0.99 __28.74 ___ 31.9 __ 22.5 1993-2022 mean of 11 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________0.95 __26.70 ___ 30.9 __ 22.9 consensus mean of 11 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________0.68 _ 31.33 ____17.9 __ 21.6 (note mean of errors is mean of absolute errors, not actual errors) (mean of actual errors is "bias" of forecasts and is -0.8 for 1981-2010 and -0.5 for 1991-2020, and is -0.24 for our consensus, meaning on average our consensus forecasts were 0.24 below outcomes but normals were 0.5 to 0.8 below outcomes ... it's a different measure of consensus being a bit better compared to normals ... for bias of EWP forecasts, it's opposite tendency, our average forecast was about 15 mm too low but the normals averaged 10 to 12 mm too low). ----------------------------------------------------------------- ANALYSIS: For CET, November narrowly widened gap between consensus and normals, as our consensus gained a bit more ground and finished well into a statistically significant position relative to the random aspect of normals. For EWP, the trend also favoured consensus over normals but still finished the contest year a bit behind normals. It appears most of us are making skilled forecasts of CET but not EWP where using normal values would improve our scores. In fact, only top 4 or 5 EWP forecasters are improving on normals, while top two-thirds of the CET contest field achieve at least some improvement over normals. A forecast 0.2 to 0.4 above recent CET averages, and 10-15 mm wetter, would yield best strategic results. Possibly a range of 0.2 below to 0.8 above depending on consensus, and 15 mm below to 30 mm above, again depending on consensus, would be excellent (swing wider in cases of early signs favoring 2023's general mild/wet tendency, go conservative on cool/dry indicators).

EWP tracker ended its work at 127.7 mm. All scoring tables will be frozen until final EWP value is posted 5 Dec (or later). Godber 1 at 126 mm and J 10, moorlander at 130 mm are top scorers for Nov on provisional value but too close to call for final outcome as table values are often 1-2 mm different from tracker values (and occasionally more). Official word on annual contest results will need to wait for a final NOV value, but I can't see any plausible scenario for snowray not to come out on top despite best efforts of Jeff C (124 mm) and leo97t (120 mm) to score maximum points. Order of next ten to fifteen will be a scramble dependent on exact NOV scores. I will post validation scores for consensus and recent normals in a day or two. Top five in EWP, not as spectacular in CET but our consensus solid especially in autumn seasonal. I am feeling a bit like 'umpty dumpty (I 'ad a great fall) but now one letter on my keyboard won't work, can you guess w_ic_ one? Valuable prizes await successful respondent (s) .

Average and extreme CET values 1772 to 2022 All data shown in these tables have been adjusted to v2.0 _______________________ Daily record values ____ Extremes of running CET DATE ___ CET __ CET cum _____ MAX _______ MIN _______ MAX _______ MIN 01 _____ 5.6 ___ 5.6 ______ 12.1 (1775) ___ --3.0 (1947) ____ 12.1 (1775) __ --3.0 (1947) 02 _____ 5.6 ___ 5.6 ______ 12.0 (1985) ___ --4.7 (1796) ____ 11.1 (1775) __ --3.4 (1796) 03 _____ 5.8 ___ 5.7 ______ 12.0 (1985) ___ --4.2 (1879) ____ 10.8 (1775) __ --3.2 (1879) 04 _____ 5.9 ___ 5.7 ______ 12.0 (1888) ___ --3.6 (1879,1925) _10.8 (1985) __ --3.3 (1879) 05 _____ 6.0 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.7 (1898) ___ --3.7 (1844) ____ 10.4 (1898,1985) _ --3.3 (1879) 06 _____ 4.8 ___ 5.6 ______ 12.1 (1898) ___ --5.5 (1844) ____ 10.7 (1898) __ --3.4 (1879) 07 _____ 4.7 ___ 5.5 ______ 12.1 (1856) ___ --5.3 (1879) ____ 10.2 (1898, 2015) _ --3.7 (1879) 08 _____ 4.3 ___ 5.3 ______ 12.0 (1856) ___ --5.4 (1807) ____ 10.4 (2015) __ --3.4 (1879) 09 _____ 4.3 ___ 5.2 ______ 11.7 (1934) ___ --4.0 (1803) ____ 10.1 (2015) __ --3.0 (1879) 10 _____ 4.2 ___ 5.1 ______ 10.7 (1856,1997) __ --4.5 (1784) __ 9.8 (2015)_--2.6 (1879) 11 _____ 4.1 ___ 5.0 ______ 12.4 (1994) ___ --6.7 (1784) ____ 9.7 (1898) __--2.6 (1879) 12 _____ 4.0 ___ 4.9 ______ 12.7 (1994) ___ --8.7 (1981) _____ 9.7 (1898) __ --2.3 (1879) 13 _____ 4.5 ___ 4.9 ______ 11.5 (1918) ___ --6.7 (1981) _____ 9.5 (2000) __ --2.1 (1879) 14 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.9 ______ 11.5 (2006) ___ --5.5 (1878) _____ 9.3 (1898) __ --1.7 (1879) 15 _____ 4.5 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.1 (1985) ___ --5.4 (1788)*_____ 9.1 (1898) __ --1.3 (1879) 16 _____ 4.4 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.4 (2015) ___ --6.4 (1859) _____ 9.0 (2015) __ --1.0 (1844, 1879) 17 _____ 4.3 ___ 4.8 ______ 12.5 (2015) ___ --7.5 (1859) _____ 9.2 (2015) __ --1.0 (1879) 18 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.7 ______ 12.5 (2015) ___ --7.0 (1859) _____ 9.4 (2015) __ --0.9 (1878,79) 19 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.7 ______ 13.0 (2015) ___ --6.8 (2010) _____ 9.6 (2015) __ --0.8 (1879) 20 _____ 3.6 ___ 4.6 ______ 11.1 (1833) ___ --7.0 (2010) _____ 9.7 (2015) __--0.9 (1878) 21 _____ 4.0 ___ 4.6 ______ 11.4 (1971) ___ --5.9 (2010) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.0 (2010) 22 _____ 4.3 ___ 4.6 ______ 11.5 (1991) ___ --5.7 (1890) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.0 (1878, 2010) 23 _____ 4.6 ___ 4.6 ______ 11.6 (1991) ___ --6.2 (1870) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.1 (1878, 2010) 24 _____ 4.6 ___ 4.6 ______ 10.7 (1843) __ --6.7 (1830,1870) __ 9.6 (2015) _ --1.3 (1878) 25 _____ 4.3 ___ 4.6 ______ 10.4 (1824) __ --10.8 (1796) _____ 9.5 (2015) __ --1.5 (1878) 26 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.6 ______ 11.0 (2011) __ --5.4 (1786, 1798) __ 9.6 (2015) _ --1.5 (1878) 27 _____ 3.8 ___ 4.5 ______ 10.8 (2015) ___ --8.4 (1798) _____ 9.6 (2015) __ --1.4 (2010) 28 _____ 3.9 ___ 4.5 ______ 11.3 (1987) ___ --8.2 (1798) _____ 9.6 (2015) __ --1.3 (2010) 29 _____ 3.7 ___ 4.5 ______ 11.9 (1987) ___ --5.3 (1908) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.1 (2010) 30 _____ 4.0 ___ 4.5 ______ 11.3 (2021) ___ --6.0 (1870) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --0.9 (2010) 31 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.5 ______ 12.9 (2021) ___ --7.1 (1783) _____ 9.6 (2015) __ --0.8 (1890) (-0.7 2010) * close call last year -4.4 15 Dec ... +9.3 on 31 Dec ________________________________________________________________ So from this we see that 2015 had one crack at being warmest Dec (7th to 10th), fell out of first place for a while, then resumed the lead from 16th to end of month. The closest to 2015 that any year came after the 20th was 8.7 (1898 - 21st). As for 2010, it moved into first by the 21st, had a running battle with 1878, shook that off but got nipped at the very end by 1890 which never held the lead at any other stage. Other noteworthy late negative running CET values would include 1788 which was -0.4 on 23rd and -0.3 on 30th-31st, 1796 which was running at -1.0 from 26th to 28th, 1844 which was -0.2 on 25th, 1879 held on at -0.4 to 25th, and more recently 1981 was running at -0.2 from 24th to 27th (finished 0.3). =============================================================== 1991-2020 daily and cumulative CET values 01 ___ 5.6 __ 5.7 _______ 11 ___ 4.7 __ 5.4 _______ 21 ___ 4.5 __ 5.0 02 ___ 5.9 __ 5.8 _______ 12 ___ 4.7 __ 5.3 _______ 22 ___ 5.2 __ 5.0 03 ___ 5.9 __ 5.8 _______ 13 ___ 4.9 __ 5.3 _______ 23 ___ 5.5 __ 5.1 04 ___ 5.4 __ 5.7 _______ 14 ___ 4.5 __ 5.2 _______ 24 ___ 4.9 __ 5.1 05 ___ 5.5 __ 5.7 _______ 15 ___ 4.9 __ 5.2 _______ 25 ___ 4.4 __ 5.0 06 ___ 5.3 __ 5.6 _______ 16 ___ 5.0 __ 5.2 _______ 26 ___ 4.4 __ 5.0 07 ___ 5.3 __ 5.6 _______ 17 ___ 4.6 __ 5.2 _______ 27 ___ 4.0 __ 5.0 08 ___ 5.3 __ 5.5 _______ 18 ___ 4.8 __ 5.1 _______ 28 ___ 3.9 __ 4.9 09 ___ 5.0 __ 5.5 _______ 19 ___ 4.7 __ 5.1 _______ 29 ___ 3.9 __ 4.9 10 ___ 5.1 __ 5.4 _______ 20 ___ 4.0 __ 5.1 _______ 30 ___ 4.2 __ 4.9 ________________________________________________ _31 ___ 4.5 __ 4.8 There is a noticeable spike in mean temperature around the 22nd-23rd Dec evident 1981-2010 but stronger by 1991-2020.

Coldest running means (all subzero cases) for 1-3 Dec, with daily values and notes on following trends: 1879 ___ -3.2 C (-1.1, -4.2, -4.2) ___ stayed very cold to 27 Dec, mild by NYD 1880 (10.4 C) 1796 ___ -2.8 C (-2.1, -4.7, -1.6) ____ severe cold around 25 Dec (-10.8) 2010 ___ -2.0 C (-2.0, -1.4, -2.6) ____ severe cold especially 18-27 Dec, milder trend afterwards 1856 ___ -1.5 C (-0.4, -2.6, -1.6) ____ very mild 6-10 Dec, several daily records near 12 C 1947 ___ -0.9 C (-3.0, -0.5, +0.7) ____ mild winter followed, (2-5 Jan near 10 C), Jan 1948 very mild and wet 1874 ___ -0.7 C (+0.4, -2.3, -0.1) ____ cold month, coldest 22-24 Dec 1846 ___ -0.6 C (-1.4, +0.7, -1.0) ____ very cold 13-15 Dec (around -4 C) 1869 ___ -0.5 C (-0.1, -0.9, -0.6) ____ variable and near average for era 1859 ____ 0.0 C (+1.9, +0.3, -2.1) ___ record cold 14-18 Dec (very mild by 31 Dec) 1889 ___ +0.2 C (+2.2, -0.8, -0.8) ___ generally mild after mid-Dec In recent years, beside 2010, also +1.0 C in 2008 (+0.6, +0.6, +1.8) __ very mild 21-22 Dec, cold Jan 2009 In 2012, cold on 30 Nov and 1 Dec (1.2, 1.1) stayed rather cold to about 13 Dec then rather mild until mid-Jan 2013 cold spell In 2017 coldest day 30 Nov (1.2) and in 2019 it was 2 Dec at 1.4. Averages around 2 C for these recent cases. ________________________________ In general, a trend often seen before in these cold starts to Dec is an eventual reversal if not fairly soon, then around New Years. Best chance for a return of severe cold appears to be in period 21-28 Dec. None of these winters became classic cold winters, one could use an expression like premature ejection of Russian origins (don't blame me) ... even so, 1796 did manage to reload and produce a monthly record cold day (25 Dec 1796). It is also noteworthy that aside from 2010, cold spells in early Dec are clustered in a period of 1846 to 1890. (Dec 1890 not in list but very cold late Nov and most of Dec, 1-3 Dec gave a relaxation to +3.2, +1.7, +2.6). Average of -2.3 for 27-29 Nov (-2.7, -2.5, -1.8)

Yes, our consensus was also best combined rank for CET and EWP, equal to your own rank of 12th for EWP. Four contest entrants were on the right value 7.4 for CET, wold topper, Earthshine, WYorksWeather and Mark Bayley. (and 1993-2022 average) EWP will probably go to either godber 1 (126 mm) or J 10 and moorlander (130 mm). I won't know for sure until 5 Dec, tracker will end near 127.5 mm in its final report tomorrow. ... moorlander was best combined at 12th CET and 3rd (as of now) EWP. Wold Topper was one of four tied at second for best combined, with summer8906, midlands ice age, and seaside60. The 1991-2020 averages were also in a tie for second in best combined.

The EWP tracker was 127.0 mm to 29 Nov and maps of 24h precip suggest 127.5 to 128 will be its final verdict. I will not change the existing scoring table for EWP back a few pages now, until 5 Dec, as the differential from 130 mm used is small, and could again adjust to a new value on 5 Dec when we get final table value. The following is preliminary, I fully expect CET to drop to either 7.3 or 7.4 with a very cold value likely for 30th, but please note, these CET ranks are preliminary and I will adjust the table later today if necessary. The EWP ranks are based on 127.8 mm, table value on 5 Dec, (edit _ CET confirmed at 7.4 C ... 30 Nov was 0.3, min was -3.4 despite -6 Pershore both yesterday and today ... so it could have perhaps been 7.3 with a lower value for 30th ... all of the following subject to validation by J 10 in CET contest scoring ...) (later edit _ EWP tracker final value 127.7 mm, table value 127.8) Ranks of CET and EWP forecasts for Nov 2023 __ based on 7.4 C and 127.8 mm Rank __ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (order of entry) __ EWP _ rank ___ best combined ranks (01) ___ 7.4 _ 104.7 _ average 1993-2022 ________(25) ___ (26) ____(2nd best combined) (01) ___ 7.4 _ 120.0 _ consensus ________________ (12) ___ (13) ____ our consensus was best combined _01 ___ 7.4 _ 103.7 _ Wold Topper ( 17 ) _________ 26 ____ 27 ___ t2nd best combined _02 ___ 7.4 __ 70.0 _ Earthshine ( 27 ) ____________ 49 ____ 51 ___ 24th best combined _03 ___ 7.4 _ 190.0 _ WYorksWeather ( 35 ) ______ 53 ____ 56 ___ 30th best combined _04 ___ 7.4 _ --- --- _ Mark Bayley ( 52 ) ___________ --- (05) ___ 7.3 _ 106.1 _ average 1991-2020 ________(25) ___ (30) ___ 6th best combined _05 ___ 7.3 __ 84.0 _ weather26 ( 02 ) ____________ 42 ____ 47 ___ 18th best combined _06 ___ 7.3 _ 110.0 _ summer8906 ( 08 ) _________ 23 ____ 29 ___ 5th best combined _07 ___ 7.3 _ 182.5 _ Roger J Smith ( 28 ) _________ 47 ____ 54 ___t27th best combined _08 ___ 7.5 _ --- --- _ Kentish Man ( 43 ) ___________ --- _09 ___ 7.5 __ 97.0 _ Mulzy ( 48 ) __________________ 34 ____ 43 ___ 14th best combined _10 ___ 7.5 _ 159.0 _ Feb1991Blizzard ( 49 ) _______ 35 ____ 45 ___t15th best combined _11 ___ 7.3 _ 103.0 _ prolongedSnowLover ( 51 ) __ 28 ____ 39 ___10th best combined _12 ___ 7.3 _ 120.0 _ seaside60 ( L1-1 ) ____________ 15 ____ 27 ___t2nd best combined _13 ___ 7.2 _ 145.0 _ Jeff C ( 14 ) ____________________22 ____ 35 ___ 8th best combined _14 ___ 7.2 _ 107.0 _ Methuselah ( 20 ) _____________24 ____ 38 ___ 9th best combined _15 ___ 7.6 __ 97.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 21 ) ________33 ____ 48 ___t20th best combined _16 ___ 7.6 __ 98.0 _ summer blizzard ( 24 ) ________32 ____ 48 ___ t20th best combined _17 ___ 7.6 _ 134.9 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 46 ) ________10 ____ 27 ___t2nd best combined _18 ___ 7.2 _ 130.0 _ Moorlander ( 58 ) ______________ 3 ____ 21 ____ best combined _19 ___ 7.7 _ 145.0 _ Alexis J9 ( 05 ) _________________ 21 ____ 40 ___t11th best combined _20 ___ 7.1 __ 87.0 _ sunny_vale ( 15 ) _______________41 _21 ___ 7.7 _ 186.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 22 ) _________50 _22 ___ 7.7 _ 135.0 _ stewfox ( 23 ) ___________________11 ____ 33 ____ 7th best combined _23 ___ 7.1 _ 117.1 _ DR(S)NO ( 37 ) __________________17 ____ 40 ___ t11th best combined _24 ___ 7.1 _ 121.0 _ Weather Observer ( 41 ) ________ 8 ____ 32 ____ 6th best combined _25 ___ 7.1 _ --- --- _ damianslaw ( 44 ) _______________ --- _26 ___ 7.7 _ 185.0 _ Don ( 50 ) _______________________48 _27 ___ 7.1 _ 112.0 __ Stationary Front ( 55 ) _________18 ____ 45 ___t15th best combined (28) ___ 7.0 _ 100.4 _ average 1981-2010 ____________(29.3) _ (57.3) _28 ___ 7.8 _ 103.6 _ bobd29 ( 01 ) ___________________27 ____ 55 ___ 29th best combined _29 ___ 7.0 __ 90.0 _ NeilN ( 06 ) _____________________ 38 _30 ___ 7.0 _ 157.0 _ snowray ( 38. ) _________________ 30 _31 ___ 7.0 __ 94.0 _ summer shower ( 47 ) __________34 _32 ___ 7.9 _ 162.0 _ jonboy ( 31 ) ____________________37 _33 ___ 6.9 _ 149.0 _ virtualsphere ( 40 ) _____________25 _34 ___ 7.9 _ --- --- __ Froze were the Days ( L1-2 ) ____--- _35 ___ 8.0 __ 90.0 _ B87 ( 07 )________________________39 _36 ___ 8.0 _ 120.0 _ Leo97t ( 29 ) ____________________13 ____ 49 ___ 22nd best combined _37 ___ 8.0 _ 111.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 42 ) ______________20 ____ 57 ___t31st best combined _38 ___ 6.8 _ 144.0 _ catbrainz ( 45 ) _________________ 19 ____ 57 ___t31st best combined _39 ___ 8.0 _ 130.0 _ J 10 ( 54 ) ________________________ 2 ____ 41 ___12th best combined _40 ___ 6.8 _ 132.0 _ February1978 ( 56 ) _____________ 5 ____ 45 ___t15th best combined _41 ___ 6.8 _ 123.0 _ metwatch ( 57 ) _________________ 7 ____ 48 ___19th best combined _42 ___ 6.8 _ --- --- __ Walsall Wood Snow ( L1-3 ) _____--- _43 ___ 6.7 __ 67.0 __John88b ( 10 ) ___________________52 _44 ___ 8.1 _ 124.0 _ davehsug ( L1-4 ) ________________ 6 ____ 50 ___23rd best combined _45 ___ 6.6 _ 121.0 _ noname_weather ( 53 ) __________9 ____ 54 ___t27th best combined _46 ___ 6.4 _ 120.0 _ Frigid ( 11 ) ______________________12 _47 ___ 8.4 __ 98.0 _ SteveB ( 16 ) _____________________31 _48 ___ 6.4 __ 80.0 _ daniel* ( 25 ) ____________________ 44 _49 ___ 6.3 _ 124.0 _ rwtwm ( 18 ) _____________________ 4 ____ 53 ___ 26th best combined _50 ___ 8.5 _ 137.0 _ mazelike ( 30 ) ___________________16 _51 ___ 6.3 _ 126.0 _ godber 1 ( 36 ) ___________________ 1 ____ 52 ___ 25th best combined (52) ___ 6.1 __ 93.8 _ average all data _________________(36) _52 ___ 8.7 _ 172.0 _ Reef ( 32 ) ________________________43 _53 ___ 8.8 _ 101.0 _ summer18 ( 09 ) _________________29 _54 ___ 8.8 __ 60.0 _ somerset girl ( 13 ) _______________54 _55 ___ 8.8 _ 120.0 _ The PIT ( 34 ) ____________________ 14 _56 ___ 5.9 __ 44.0 _ shillitocettwo ( 12 ) _______________55 _57 ___ 8.9 _ --- --- __ Summer Sun ( 26 ) _______________--- _58 ___ 9.0 _ --- --- __ Typhoon John ( 03 ) ______________--- _59 ___ 9.1 _ 188.0 _ I remember Atlantic 252 ( 33 ) ___52 _60 ___ 9.1 __ 90.0 __ syed2878 ( 39 ) __________________40 _61 ___ 5.6 __ 79.0 _ chilly milly ( 04 ) __________________45 _62 ___ 4.0 __ 75.2 _ Polar Gael ( 19 ) __________________46 =============================== EWP entries in order 190_WYorks ... 188_I rem ... 186_EG ... 185_Don ... 182.5_RJS ... 172_Reef ... 162_jon ...159_Feb91 .. 157_snow ... 149_virt ... 145_Al-J9, Jeff ... 144_cat ... 137_maze ... 135_stew ... 134.9_mia ... 132_Feb78 ... 130_J 10, Moor ... 126_godb ... 124_rwtwm, dave^ ... 123_met ... 121_WxOb, non ... 120_Frig, leo, PIT, sea60^ ... 117.1_DR(S) ... 112_SF ... 111_MrM ... 110_sum8906 ... 107_meth ... 106.1_91-20 ... 104.7_93-22 ... 103.7_WT ... 103.6 _bobd29 ... 103_pSL ... 101_sum18 ... 100.4_81-10 ... 98_Steve, sb ... 97_dww, mul ... 94_sumsh ... 93.8_alldata ... 90_NN, B87, syed... 87_sv ... 84_wx26 ... 80_dan ... 79_cm ... 75.2_PG ... 70_earth ... 67_john ... 60_sg ... 44_shil

I mentioned back in the thread an error in CET data base where max was lower than min for 23 Dec 1884. This was resolved in v2.0.1.0, I just noticed it today and also found a new product on site explaining a few things about that and other issues. Look for the "release notes" link on the CET home page. Apparently at one location (Ross-on-Wye) used in original research on CET years ago, a notation of +5.1 was read as -15.1, no doubt handwriting issue in old tables consulted back when CET was first developed (as the old notes were likely in F deg, I don't know what looked like what, it would be about 5 F looking like 41 F). This error persisted all through the years, I brought it to their attention along with the EWP truncation errors already discussed and resolved earlier. The reason I noticed it was that in my excel file, I was studying daily ranges and ran a program to find the largest and smallest ones. To my surprise 23 Dec 1884 was a negative range (max lower than min). I knew that had to be wrong. So the reason was discovered and now we have corrected data for 23 Dec 1884 (max of -2.4 was adjusted to 4.6). They mention in the release notes making a few other small adjustments but except for those, about 99.9% of v2.0.1.0 daily data continue on from v2.0 data.

Not very late, in fact I was posting as you were, so I will call it last of non-late entries. Table adjusted. Late period starts now ... tick tock

Table of entries for December 2023 CET _ EWP __ FORECASTER (Order of entry) ____________ CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (Order of entry) _________ 7.0 __ --- --- __ Typhoon John ( 11 ) ______________________ 4.8 _ 103.6 __ 1991-2020 average ___________________ 6.3 _ 108.0 __ davehsug ( 41 ) ___________________________ 4.8 __ 56.0 __ summer shower ( 28 ) _________________ 6.0 _ 136.0 __ virtualsphere ( 6 ) ________________________ 4.8 _ --- --- __ Mark Bayley ( 45 ) _______________________ 6.0 __ 50.0 __ syed2878 ( 16 ) ___________________________ 4.7 _ 115.0 __ WYorksWeather ( 33 ) __________________ 6.0 __ --- --- __ Froze were the Days ( 38 ) _______________ 5.9 __ --- --- __ Summer Sun ( 37 ) ________________________4.5 __ 97.4 __ 1981-2010 average ____________________ 5.8 __ 80.0 __ The PIT ( 18 ) ______________________________ 4.5 __ 60.0 __ Leo97t ( 26 ) ___________________________ 5.8 __ 87.0 __ Reef ( 32 ) _________________________________ 4.4 __ 85.0 __ Weather26 ( 2 ) ________________________ 5.7 _ 112.0 __ I remember Atlantic252 ( 27 ) ____________ 4.4 __ 77.0 __ Somerset girl ( 49 ) ____________________ 5.6 __ 74.0 __ summer blizzard ( 20 ) ____________________ 4.3 __ 99.0 __ Wold Topper ( 57 ) ____________________ 5.6 _ 129.0 __ noname_weather ( 39 ) ___________________ 4.2 __ 80.0 __ John88b ( 8 ) ___________________________ 5.5 _ 118.0 __ chilly milly ( 13 ) ___________________________ 4.2 __ 72.0 __ gazse9 ( 9 ) _____________________________ 5.4 _ 130.0 __ Don ( 34 ) _________________________________ 4.2 __ 88.0 __ summer18 ( 17 ) ________________________ 5.4 _ 120.0 __ J 10 ( 53 ) __________________________________ 4.2 __ 90.0 __ Mulzy ( 46 ) _____________________________ 5.3 _ 119.0 __ feb1991blizzard ( 30 ) _____________________4.1 __ 89.1 __ average of all data (CET 1659-2022, EWP 1766-2022) 5.3 _ 121.5 __ snowray ( 40 ) _____________________________4.1 __ 81.0 __ Alexis J9 ( 4 ) _____________________________ 5.3 _ 110.0 __ seaside60 ( L1-2 ) _________________________ 5.2 _ 135.0 __ Frigid ( 35 ) ________________________________ 4.1 __ 95.0 __ Metwatch ( 44 ) __________________________ 5.2 _ 110.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 ( 48 ) ___________________ 4.0 _ 100.0 __ DR(S)NO ( 29 ) ____________________________ 5.2 _ 114.0 __ February1978 ( 55 ) _______________________ 4.0 __ --- --- __ damianslaw ( 43 ) _________________________ 5.1 __ 96.0 __ moorlander ( 7 ) ___________________________ 3.9 __ 51.0 __ shillitocettwo ( 22 ) ________________________ 5.1 __ 63.0 __ SteveB ( 10 ) _______________________________ 3.9 __ 75.0 __ daniel* ( 56 ) ______________________________ 5.1 __ 98.0 __ rwtwm ( 36 ) _______________________________ 3.8 __ 75.0 __ stewfox ( 12 ) _____________________________ 5.1 __ 67.0 __Mr Maunder ( 42 ) __________________________3.8 _ 105.0 __ Midlands Ice Age ( 50 ) ___________________ 5.0 __ 83.0 __ Bobd29 ( 3 ) ________________________________3.7 __ 81.0 __ Emmett Garland ( 31 ) ____________________ 5.0 __ 80.0 __ Earthshine ( 14 ) ____________________________3.6 __ 21.0 __ Neil N ( 21 ) ______________________________ ____ __ ____ __ ____ ____ ____ ________________________________3.6 __ 72.0 __ Weather Observer ( 51 ) __________________ ____ __ ____ __ ____ ____ ____ ________________________________3.3 __ --- --- __ Kentish Man ( 54 ) __________________ 4.9 _ 106.3 __ 1993-2022 average _________________________ 3.2 __ 71.0 __ jonboy ( 24 ) ______________________________ _____________________________________________________________3.1 _ 124.0 __ godber 1 ( 52 ) ___________________________ 4.9 __ 88.0 __ methuselah ( 5 ) _____________________________3.0 _ 110.0 __ Jeff C ( 1 ) _________________________________ 4.9 __ 59.0 __ dancerwithwings ( 19 ) ______________________ 2.9 __ 64.7 __ Roger J Smith ( 23 ) _______________________ ____ ____ __ __ __ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ __________________________2.8 __ 64.0 __ Stationary Front ( 25 ) ____________________ ____ ____ __ __ __ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ __________________________2.8 __104.0 __ Let It Snow! ( L1-1 ) ______________________ 4.8 __ 88.0 __ Consensus __________________________________ 2.4 _ 124.0 __ prolongedSnowLover ( 47 ) ______________ _____________________________________________________________2.0 __ 96.5 __ Polar Gael ( 15 ) __________________________ 57 on-time entries, and two 1d late so far, 59 total ... median (consensus) 4.8 C ---------- ========================== EWP forecasts in order 136_virt .. 135_Frig .. 130_Don .. 129_non .. 124_pSL, godb .. 121.5_snow .. 120_ J10 .. 119_feb91 .. 118_cm .. 115_WYorks .. 114_Feb78 .. 112_IRem .. 110_ Jeff, Add,sea^ .. 108_ dave .. 106.3 _93-22 .. 105_mia .. 104_LIS^ ..103.6 _91-20 .. 100_DR(S) .. 99_WT .. 98_rwtwm .. 97.4 _81-10 .. 96.5_PG .. 96_moor .. 95_Met .. 90_Mul .. 89.1 _all ...88_meth, sum18 .. 88.0_con .. 87_Reef .. 85_wx26 .. 83 _bobd .. 81_Al J9, EG .. 80_john, earth, PIT .. 77_sg .. 75_stew, dan .. 74_sb ... 72_gaz, WxOb .. 71_jon .. 67_MrM .. 64.7 _RJS .. 64_SF .. 63 _Ste .. 60_leo .. 59_dww .. 56_sumsh .. 51_shil .. 50_syed .. 21_NN _________ 51 on-time entries, and two late (^) 1d, 53 total ... median (consensus) 88.0 mm. ============================ << LATER ENTRIES will be added to end of Sunday, 3 Dec >>>