Roger J Smith

Finally, the autumn comparisons. Note that Sep (blue) warmed to near modern levels 1721-50, and fell back, while Oct (red) was notably lagging for 1871-1900. Nov (green) has shown a more steady warming trend since hitting its coldest values in the Dalton minimum.

The three summer months have always been in the same order, red here being July, green August and blue June. July and August have warmed more significantly than June.

Same setup for spring months, obviously blue is March, red April and green May. Note how March started to warm faster than April around mid-19th century. March in periods from 1661 to 1720 (1,2) was no warmer than Dec or Feb nowadays. March returned to a similar chilly average in 1781 to 1810.

Graph showing successive 30-year averages for winter months: rather than showing 36 largely overlapping intervals, I just show every third one, starting 1661-1690, then 1691-1720, etc, until finishing at 1991-2020. In the graph, red is January (almost always colder) green is February (usually holds middle position, sometimes warmer than Dec, and sometimes equal or near-equal with January) and blue is December (usually a bit warmer than February) The numbers 1 to 12 refer to each 30-year interval The vertical scale is C deg.

I can do the graphic comparison, but my tables of daily data averages included all data we have, going back to 1772. I think you meant to say 1659 above, but we have no daily data from 1659 to 1771. I have seen one or two references to dates of events in that period like the summer heat followed by great fire of London in 1666 and the Daniel Defoe storm of 1703 (it was 26-27 Nov o.s. and 7-8 Dec n.s.), also some details of the great cold of winter 1739-40 (set in late Dec old style, early Jan new style), but in general there are fewer reliable indications of what was going on inside the months before 1772. I will work up the graphic comparison, it could take several graphs because some of the consecutive periods are not far apart and occasionally the trend is not upwards. (added) Reading it over, did you want to see a graph of all averages for 21-31 Jan from 1772 to 2023? I could easily do that.

Would rather not see a lot of chat in the Feb (or any) thread during the forecast period (i.e., from opening day on 20th usually, to 2nd or 3rd of contest month, when forecasts are largely posted and tabulated) -- it is very difficult to plow through a lot of chat posts to collect the forecasts. TIA. Personally, I don't mind seeing discussions like the above in the current thread. It doesn't matter how any pages separate the table of forecasts from the results, it is bound to be some number of pages, so not sure why it would matter how many. But perhaps we should say, discussions of future month outcomes could go better in the existing "2024 predictions" thread. Unless it's a technical post based on analysis of current month indications, those are probably good material for contest threads.

Based on obs from Shetlands, low centre is about 947 mbs just n.w. of Shetlands at 0400h. (based on moderate wind speeds s.w. at Lerwick).

No worries, answer is, flex of Pacific ridge in N America dislodged extreme cold arctic high into central US, storm Isha formed off coast and had enough energy to blast through block in Europe. That could rebuild during February, especially as pattern change now underway upstream will cut off strong trans-Atlantic jet stream. I noted in analysis of mild end of January cases, tendency to return to cold in mid-February in a lot of them.

From the intro post, 1901-2000 average for January is 3.9, 2001-2023 is 4.8, so without actually going to file and calculating, that would yield an average from 1901 to present of about 4.1 C. Average for 1801-1900 was 3.0, and 1701-1800 was 2.9. 1659-1700 had an average of 2.6. The entire period of record average is 3.3. I would imagine most of the other months would look like this, June shows less of a warming. Winter is getting shorter and November, march both show larger increases. 30-year averages in CET period of record 30-yr period _____ JAN __ FEB __ MAR __ APR __ MAY __ JUN __ JUL __ AUG __ SEP __ OCT __ NOV __ DEC__YEAR __ 1659-2023) ____ 3.3 ___3.9 ___5.3 ___7.9 __ 11.2 __ 14.3 __ 16.0 __ 15.6 __ 13.3 ___9.7 ___6.1 ___4.1 ___ 9.2 1661-1690 _______ 2.9 ___3.1 ___4.8 ___7.4 __ 11.0 __ 14.3 __ 15.8 __ 15.3 __ 12.8 ___9.4 ___5.7 ___3.4 __ 8.8 1671-1700________2.6 ___2.6 ___4.4 ___7.1 __ 10.7 __ 13.9 __ 15.5 __ 14.9 __ 12.3 ___9.0 ___5.3 ___3.3 __ 8.5 1681-1710________2.4 ___3.0 ___4.5 ___7.3 __ 10.8 __ 13.9 __ 15.5 __ 15.3 __ 12.6 ___9.0 ___5.6 ___4.0 __ 8.6 1691-1720________2.6 ___3.3 ___4.7 ___7.4 __ 10.7 __ 14.0 __ 15.8 __ 15.5 __ 12.9 ___9.1 ___5.8 ___3.8 __ 8.8 1701-1730________3.1 ___3.8 ___5.1 ___7.9 __ 11.3 __ 14.4 __ 15.9 __ 15.8 __ 13.6 ___9.5 ___6.4 ___4.0 __ 9.2 1711-1740________3.4 ___4.0 ___5.4 ___8.1 __ 11.2 __ 14.6 __ 16.0 __ 15.7 __ 13.8 ___9.7 ___6.2 ___4.1 __ 9.3 1721-1750________3.4 ___3.9 ___5.2 ___7.8 __ 11.4 __ 14.5 __ 16.0 __ 15.9 __ 14.0 ___9.6 ___6.3 ___4.2 __ 9.3 1731-1760________3.3 ___3.8 ___5.2 ___7.7 __ 11.2 __ 14.5 __ 16.1 __ 15.8 __ 13.8 ___9.4 ___5.8 ___4.2 __ 9.2 1741-1770________2.9 ___3.7 ___4.8 ___7.6 __ 11.2 __ 14.3 __ 16.0 __ 15.7 __ 13.6 ___9.2 ___5.7 ___3.9 __ 9.0 1751-1780________2.4 ___3.7 ___5.3 ___7.9 __ 11.2 __ 14.5 __ 16.1 __ 15.8 __ 13.4 ___9.3 ___5.6 ___3.7 __ 9.0 1761-1790________2.4 ___3.7 ___4.8 ___7.9 __ 11.5 __ 14.6 __ 16.1 __ 15.9 __ 13.3 ___9.2 ___5.5 ___3.7 __ 9.0 1771-1800________2.4 ___3.8 ___4.9 ___8.1 __ 11.4 __ 14.7 __ 16.3 __ 15.9 __ 13.3 ___9.2 ___5.5 ___3.5 __ 9.1 1781-1810________2.9 ___3.8 ___4.6 ___8.0 __ 11.5 __ 14.6 __ 16.1 __ 15.8 __ 13.2 ___9.4 ___5.3 ___3.2 __ 9.0 1791-1820________2.5 ___4.0 ___5.1 ___8.0 __ 11.2 __ 14.2 __ 15.9 __ 15.6 __ 13.1 ___9.5 ___5.5 ___3.2 __ 9.0 1801-1830________2.4 ___3.9 ___5.5 ___7.9 __ 11.4 __ 14.2 __ 15.8 __ 15.8 __ 13.1 ___9.8 ___5.9 ___3.6 __ 9.1 1811-1840________2.3 ___4.0 ___5.4 ___7.9 __ 11.4 __ 14.4 __ 15.7 __ 15.6 __ 13.0 ___9.8 ___6.1 ___4.0 __ 9.1 1821-1850________2.6 ___3.9 ___5.5 ___8.0 __ 11.6 __ 14.7 __ 15.7 __ 15.3 __ 13.0 ___9.6 ___6.3 ___4.5 __ 9.2 1831-1860________3.2 ___3.7 ___5.2 ___7.8 __ 11.2 __ 14.6 __ 15.7 __ 15.4 __ 13.0 ___9.6 ___5.8 ___4.3 __ 9.1 1841-1870________3.4 ___3.9 ___5.2 ___8.2 __ 11.2 __ 14.4 __ 15.8 __ 15.4 __ 13.2 ___9.6 ___5.7 ___4.3 __ 9.2 1851-1880________3.7 ___4.2 ___5.2 ___8.2 __ 10.8 __ 14.2 __ 15.9 __ 15.6 __ 13.2 ___9.7 ___5.3 ___4.1 __ 9.2 1861-1890________3.5 ___4.5 ___5.1 ___8.1 __ 10.9 __ 14.1 __ 15.8 __ 15.4 __ 13.2 ___9.3 ___5.7 ___3.8 __ 9.1 1871-1900________3.4 ___4.2 ___5.2 ___7.9 __ 10.7 __ 14.2 __ 15.8 __ 15.5 __ 13.1 ___9.0 ___6.1 ___3.7 __ 9.1 1881-1910________3.5 ___3.9 ___5.1 ___7.7 __ 10.9 __ 14.1 __ 15.7 __ 15.2 __ 13.1 ___9.3 ___6.3 ___4.0 __ 9.1 1891-1920________3.7 ___4.1 ___5.3 ___7.9 __ 11.3 __ 14.1 __ 15.7 __ 15.4 __ 13.1 ___9.4 ___6.2 ___4.5 __ 9.2 1901-1930________4.2 ___4.2 ___5.5 ___8.0 __ 11.3 __ 13.8 __ 15.8 __ 15.2 __ 13.1 ___9.8 ___5.8 ___4.5 __ 9.2 1911-1940________4.2 ___4.3 ___5.7 ___8.2 __ 11.5 __ 14.2 __ 15.9 __ 15.6 __ 13.3 ___9.6 ___6.2 ___4.6 __ 9.4 1921-1950________3.9 ___4.2 ___5.9 ___8.0 __ 11.3 __ 14.4 __ 16.3 __ 15.9 __ 13.6 __10.0 ___6.4 ___4.5 __ 9.5 1931-1960________3.5 ___3.9 ___5.9 ___8.1 __ 11.5 __ 14.6 __ 16.2 __ 16.0 __ 13.7 __10.1 ___6.8 ___4.7 __ 9.6 1941-1970________3.3 ___3.6 ___5.7 ___8.1 __ 11.4 __ 14.5 __ 16.0 __ 15.7 __ 13.7 __10.6 ___6.6 ___4.4 __ 9.5 1951-1980________3.6 ___3.7 ___5.6 ___8.0 __ 11.3 __ 14.3 __ 15.9 __ 15.6 __ 13.6 __10.5 ___6.6 ___4.7 __ 9.4 1961-1990________3.8 ___3.8 ___5.7 ___7.9 __ 11.2 __ 14.2 __ 16.1 __ 15.8 __ 13.6 __10.6 ___6.6 ___4.7 __ 9.5 1971-2000________4.2 ___4.2 ___6.3 ___8.1 __ 11.3 __ 14.1 __ 16.5 __ 16.2 __ 13.7 __10.4 ___6.9 ___5.1 __ 9.7 1981-2010________4.4 ___4.4 ___6.6 ___8.5 __ 11.7 __ 14.4 __ 16.7 __ 16.4 __ 14.0 __10.7 ___7.1 ___4.6 __10.0 1991-2020 _______ 4.7 __ 4.9 __ 6.7 ___ 9.0 __ 11.9 __ 14.7 __ 16.8 __ 16.5 __ 14.2 __10.9 __ 7.4 __ 5.0 __ 10.2

As already discussed, Neil N and Summer Shower were closest to late season peak of heat, and Frigid did well with the June peak. I think if I attempted to score all forecasts most of the scores would be close to zero under the rules, so I won't bother to do that; will just declare those three to be joint winners for relatively good efforts compared to a larger number of poor ones. Now, as to the other contest that some entered, the three-forum tropical season contest, hosted at American Weather Forum, and including the, Boards.ie weather forum, and Net-weather, this was the final scoring report (20 7 3 was outcome). It shows both (a) ranks overall for forecasters ("expert" non-entrants and consensus are ranked but it does not affect ranks down the table) (b) ranks within your own forum group (a)_ (b) ___ FORECASTER (order of entry) __ FORECAST ______ penalty pts __ TOTAL (100-pp) 01 01AM _ yotaman (31) _______________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -5 _0 _0 ______ 95.0 ___ 02 01IE __ tae laidir (IE-1) ______________ 18 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____-1.5 -3 -1 _____ 94.5 ___ 03 02AM _wkd (4) _____________________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -5 _0 -1 ______ 94.0 ___ 04 03AM _hotair (18) __________________ 16 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -5 -1 _0 ______ 94.0 ___ 05 04AM _solidicewx (28) _____________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -5 _0 -1 ______ 94.0 ___ 06 05AM _diggiebot (12) _______________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0 ____ 92.5 ___ 07 06AM _Torch Tiger (23) _____________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0_____ 92.5 ___ (08) --- ___ CSU _________________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0_____ 92.5 ___ (08) --- ___ TWC ________________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0_____ 92.5 ___ 08 07AM _ Stebo (26) __________________15 ____ 7 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 _0 -1 _____ 91.5 ___ 09 01NW _ SummerShower (NW-3) __17 ____10 ____ 3 _____-3 -6 _0 ______ 91.0 ___ 10 08AM _ wxdude64 (15) _____________ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 11 09AM _ GramaxRefugee (33) _______ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 12 10AM _ Ineedsnow (44) _____________16 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 13 11AM _ WxWatcher007 (20) _________15 ____ 6 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 _____ 90.5 ___ (13) --- __ NOAA median ______________14.5___7.0 ___2.5 ____-9.1 _0 -0.4 ____ 90.5 ___ 14 12AM _ BrandonC_TX (36) __________15 ____ 8 ____ 4 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 _____ 90.5 ___ 15 13AM _ SouthCoastMA (10) _________17 ____10 ____ 4 _____ -3 -6 -1 ______ 90.0 ___ 16 02IE __ JPmarn (IE-2) _______________ 14 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-10.5 _0 _0 ____ 89.5 ___ 17 02NW _Emmett Garland (NW-1) __ 16 ____10 ____ 3 _____ -5 -6 _0 ______89.0 ___ 18 03IE __ Mr Skinner (IE-3) ___________ 16 ____ 9 ____ 5 _____ -5 -3 -3 ______ 89.0 ___ 19 14AM _ NorthArlington101 (1) _____ 14 ____ 6 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 88.5 ___ 20 15AM _ nvck (45) ___________________ 14 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 88.5 ___ 21 ---- _______ Consensus _____________ 13.8 __ 6.8 __ 2.8 ___-11.2 -0.2 -0.2__ 88.4 ___ 21 16AM _ JConsor (13) ________________14 ____ 8 ____ 4 ____-10.5 -1 -1 _____ 87.5 ___ 22 ---- ___ UK Met Office _____________ 20 ___ 11 ____ 5 _____ _0 -10 -3 _____ 87.0 ___ 22 17AM _ IntenseWind002 (5) ________ 14 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -3 _0 ____ 86.5 ___ 23 18AM _ LovintheWhiteFluff (34) _____19 ___ 11 ____ 5 ____ -0.5 -10 -3 ____ 86.5 ___ 24 19AM _ StormchaserChuck1 (42) ___21 ____11 ____ 5 ____ -0.5 -10 -3 ____ 86.5 ___ 25 20AM _ Marsman (14) ______________ 15 ____ 4 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 -6 -1 _____85.5 ___ 26 21AM _ Superstorm93 (22) __________13 ____ 7 ____ 2 _____ -14 _ 0 -1 ____ 85.0 ___ 27 22AM _ Yoda (40) ___________________13 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -14 _ 0 -1 ____ 85.0 ___ 28 23AM _ George BM (41) _____________13 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -14 -1 _0 ____ 85.0 ___ 29 24AM _ NCForecaster89 (37) _______ 13 ____ 6 ____ 2 _____ -14 -1 -1 ____ 84.0 ___ 30 25AM _ Roger Smith (19) ____________19 ___ 12 ____ 4 _____-0.5 -15 -1 ___ 83.5 ___ 31 03NW _ Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) _16 ___11 ____ 5 _____ -5 -10 -3 ____ 82.0 ___ 32 26AM _ Rhino 16 (2) _________________12 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-18 _0 _0 _____ 82.0 ___ 33 27AM _ North hills wx (24) __________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 _____ 82.0 ___ 34 28AM _ Newman (30) _______________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 _____ 82.0 ___ 35 29AM _ rclab (43) ___________________ 12 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____ -18 -1 _0 _____ 81.0 ___ 36 30AM _ crownweather (11) __________ 12 ____ 6 ____ 2 ____ -18 -1 -1 _____ 80.0 ___ 37 31AM _ Alfoman (25) _________________13 ____ 5 ____ 1 _____-14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 ___ 38 32AM _ Chrisrotary12 (38) ___________13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 ___ 39 33AM _ Cat Lady (7) ________________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____ -18 -3 _0 ____ 79.0 ___ 40 34AM _ RJay (17) ____________________12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -18 -3 -1 _____ 78.0 ___ 41 35AM _ cheese007 (35) _____________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-18 -3 -1 _____ 78.0 ___ 42 36AM _ Eyewall (27) _________________12 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____ -18 -6 -1 _____ 75.0 ___ 43 04IE ___ Pauldry (IE-4) ______________ 21 ____11 ____ 8 ____ -0.5 -10 -15 ___74.5 ___ 44 37AM _ LakeNormanStormin (3) _____ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 45 38AM _ mob1 (8) ____________________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 46 39AM _ Malacka 11 (29) _____________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 47 40AM _ cnimbus (6) _________________ 10 ____ 7 ____ 2 ___ -27.5 _0 -1 ____ 71.5 ___ 48 41AM _ Matthew70 (32) _____________ 11 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____-22.5 -6 -1 ____70.5 ___ 49 42AM _ Ed, snow and hurricane fan(16)_10.5__4.5__2 ___-25 -4.4 -1 ____ 69.6 ___ 50 04NW _ Neil N (NW-2) _______________ 12 ____ 11 ___ 1 ___-18 -10 -3 _____ 69.0 ___ 51 43AM _ GaWx (21) ____________________10 ____ 5 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -3 -1 ____ 68.5 ___ 52 05NW _ Summer Blizzard (NW-5) ___ 10 ____ 4 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -6 -1 ____ 65.5 ___ 53 44AM _ The Iceman (39) _____________ 10 ____ 4 ____ 1 ___ -27.5 -6 -3 ____ 63.5 ___ 54 45AM _ Olafminesaw (9) ______________ 7 ____ 3 ____ 2 ___ -45.5 -10 -1 ___ 43.5 ___ ____________________________________ Congrats to Summer Shower who was top NW entrant and 9th overall. I participate in all three forums so my affiliation tag is somewhat pointless.

1996 was 2.5 so I guess we could say 1992 to 2023 (32 years) had no Feb below 2.5, while 1997 to 2023 (27 years) had no Feb below 2.6 (or 2.7). So looking at those intervals, I find that previously the longest such intervals were these 14 years: No Feb below 2.5 _ 1903 to 1916 (14 yrs) _ 2nd 1801 to 1813 (13 yrs) ______ 32 yrs 1992-2023 No Feb below 2.6 _ 1903 to 1916 (14 yrs) _ 2nd 1801 to 1813 (13 yrs) ______ 27 yrs 1997-2023 (also no Feb below 2.7, as coldest for each interval was 2.8, in 1907, and in 1808) _ coldest 1997-2023 was 2.9 The longest before daily data (1772) were only 10 and 9 years for these: No Feb below 2.6 _ 1756 to 1764 (9 yrs) _ lowest was 3.8 in 1758,60,64 No Feb below 2.5 _ 1699 to 1708 (10 yrs) _ lowest was 2.5 in 1700, 1701 So the answer would be no, and with these exceptions intervals of even six years between 2.5 or lower Febs are rare. The only (other) intervals with no value below 2.5 (2.5 can be included) longer than six years are (1699-1708) see above 1712-1720 (9 yrs) __ 2.5 1717 coldest 1732-1739 (8 yrs) __ 3.1 1736 coldest (1756-1764) see above 1786-1794 (9 yrs) __ 3.4 1786 coldest (1801-1813) see above 1831-1837 (7 yrs) __ 3.4 1832 coldest 1866-1872 (7 yrs) __ 2.8 1870 coldest 1876-1885 (10 yrs) _ 3.1 1879 coldest (1903-1916) see above 1920-1928 (9 yrs) __ 3.3 1924 coldest 1930-1941 (12 yrs) _ 2.5 1930, 2.6 1936,40 coldest 1948-1954 (7 yrs) __ 2.6 1954 coldest 1970-1978 (9 yrs) __ 2.8 1978 coldest (1992-2023) see above

I see 0.1 now reported for 19 Jan and running CET 3.1, 0.7 below 1961-1990 end of January average. No doubt the low point for January 2024. A five-day interval ends with average CET of -0.4 C.

CET averages and extremes for February The following data include all CET values from 1981-2023. Warmest 15 in bold type. Middle 14 values italic and coldest 14 are underlined. The data have been converted to v2.0.1.0 in each case. The ties mentioned are only ties in one decimal, and the actual ranks in the CET v2.0.1.0 table are based on second decimal values. After the group at 6.3 C (incl 2014), only 1981-2022 values are listed without ranks, earlier years could be tied, until colder than 1.2 C when the longer term records are once again mentioned for coldest values. Only 1986 was colder in the recent past. 12.8 ... warmest Feb day (mean temp) 4th Feb 2004 7.9 ... warmest month of Feb 1779 7.5 ... second warmest month of Feb 1869 7.3 ... third warmest month of Feb 1990 7.2 ... tied fourth warmest month of Feb 1794, 1998 7.1 ... tied sixth warmest month of Feb 1903, 1945 7.0 ... eighth warmest 2002 6.9 ... tied ninth warmest 1867, 1872, 1961, 2019, 2022 6.8 ... tied 14th warmest 1739, 1914, 1926 6.7 ... tied 17th warmest 1702, 1750, 1997 6.6 ... 20th warmest 1790 6.5 ... tied 21st warmest 1815, 1918, 1995, 2011, 2020, 2023 6.4 ... tied 27th warmest 1732, 1734, 1817, 1826, 1846, 1850 6.3 ... tied 33rd warmest 1822, 1868, 2014 6.2 ... 2000, 2017 6.1 ... most recent 1943 6.0 ... 1989, 2007 5.9 ... most recent 1946 5.8 ... most recent 1980 5.7 ... most recent 1966 5.6 ... 2008 5.5 ... most recent 1974 5.4 ... 1992, 2004 5.3 ... 1999, 2021 5.2 ... most recent 1977 ... warmest 30-year average 1994-2023, 5.20 5.1 ... 2016 ... also 2001-2023 average (5.14) 5.0 ... most recent 1789 ... 1991-2020 average (4.97 v2.0.1.0, was 4.9 in CET legacy) 4.9 ... 1988 4.8 ... 1982 4.7 ... 1993 4.6 ... most recent 1976 4.5 ... most recent 1975 4.4 ... most recent 1962 ... 1981-2010 average 4.3 ... 2001, 2005, 2009 ... and 1971-2000 average (was 4.2 in CET legacy) 4.2 ... 2015 4.1 ... most recent 1960 ... 1901-2000 average (was 4.0 in CET legacy) 4.0 ... 2012 ... and mean for 1801-1900 3.9 ... 2003, 2006 and mean for 1659-2023 (all 365 years) -- 3.92 3.8 ... most recent 1934 ... 1961-1990 average (unchanged from CET legacy) and mean for 1701-1800 3.7 ... most recent 1951 3.6 ... 1987 3.5 ... 1984 3.4 ... 2013 3.3 ... most recent 1924 3.2 ... 1994 3.1 ... 2018 3.0 ... 1981 2.9 ... 2010 ... and mean for 1659-1700 2.8 ... most recent 1978 ... 2.7 most recent 1818, 2.6 most recent 1954 2.5 ... 1996 and coldest 30-year mean (1670 to 1699) ((2.55 rounded down (2.547)) 2.4 ... most recent 1847, 2.3 most recent 1901 2.2 ... 1985 2.1 ... most recent 1821, 2.0 most recent 1721, 1.9 most recent 1968 1.8 ... 1983 1.7 ... most recent 1860 1.6 ... t42nd coldest 1991 1.5 ... most recent 1902 ... 1.4 most recent 1814 ... 1.3 most recent 1979 (30th coldest) 1.2 ... 1755, 1955 t28 coldest 1.1 ... in v2.0.1.0, the "missing CET" closest to the median of all months (would be 27th coldest if it happens before anything colder) 1.0 ... 1663, 1665, 1670, 1691, 1969 t23rd coldest 0.9 ... 1845, 1917 t21st coldest 0.8 ... 1795 (20th coldest) 0.7 ... 1827 (19th coldest) 0.6 ... 1853 (18th coldest) 0.5 ... 1695, 1697, 1698 (t15th coldest) 0.4 ... 1765, 1785, 1838, 1929 (t11th coldest) 0.1 ... 1942 (tenth coldest) 0.0 ... 1692 (ninth coldest) -0.2 ... 1956 (eighth coldest) -0.7 ... 1963 (seventh coldest) -1.0 ... tied fifth coldest month of Feb, 1684 and coldest in recent years 1986 -1.6 ... fourth coldest month of Feb 1740 -1.7 ... third coldest month of Feb 1855 -1.8 ... second coldest month of Feb 1895 -1.9 ... coldest month of Feb 1947 -2.9 ... running CET by 23rd 1855 (!!) -4.4 ... running CET by 14th 1895 (!!) (was -3.0 tied with 1855 to 22nd) -6.3 ... coldest week 6-12 Feb 1895 -8.8 ... coldest Feb day (mean temp) 9th Feb 1816 (1947 was like Dec 1890 only the coldest running CET on last day of month; the coldest January 1795 somewhat similar as 1814 colder 10th-24th and again 27th-28th, tied 29th, but 1795 did hold top spot 4th-9th, 25th-26th and 30th-31st). Before 1895 (8th-21st) and 1855 (tied 22nd, coldest 23rd-27th), 1956 (1st-4th) and 1830 (5th-7th) held the lead in coldest running Feb CET. The coldest leap year February with daily data was 1956 but 1740 was considerably colder. For warmest running Feb CET, it was 1923 (1st-2nd), 2004 (3rd-8th), 1869 from 9th to 22nd, then 1779 led on 24th, was tied with 1869 on 23rd and 25th and took again 26th-28th. As neither were leap years, 1872 had the highest running mean for 1st-29th (6.9 C) but would have been easily beaten out if 1st March of 1869 or 1779 were the 29th of Feb. Interesting fact: longest interval with no subzero February is not recent, it was the 114 consecutive years 1741 to 1854. The current streak is 37 years (1987 to 2023). But other longer streaks include 1685 to 1739 (55 years, but 1692 was 0.0, so 47 years if you count 1693 to 1739), 1856 to 1894 (39 years), and 1896 to 1946 (51 years). The shortest return of a subzero February was 1963 relative to 1956, and closely followed by 1956 relative to 1947. The longest absence of a 2.0 or colder February is recent, 1994 to 2023 (30 years). Before that, the longest absence of a 2.0 or colder February was 18 years (1796 to 1813) ... however 2.0 was the lowest value between 1699 and 1739, so the longest streak of Februaries failing to go below 2.0 is that interval of 41 years. It will be intact until at least 2034. _____________________________________________________________________________________ Enter your forecast in this thread before the end of the day Wednesday 31st January, or with increasing time penalties before the end of the day Saturday 3rd February. Good luck! ______________________________________________________________________________________ EWP Precip contest Predict the EWP for February (in mm). Same deadlines as above -- Wettest Feb ... ... ... 169.5 mm (2020) former record was ... ... 158.6 mm (1833) former recent max was 143.2 mm (1990) 1994-2023 avg ... 75.0 mm (now highest running 30-yr avg) _ despite 2023 being dry, 1993 was 2.7 drier. 1993-2022 avg ... 74.9 mm (was highest running 30-yr avg) ____ 1922-1951 avg ... 71.9 mm (was a secondary max) 1991-2020 avg ... 72.4 mm 1981-2010 avg ... 66.5 mm all data 1766-2023 avg 65.5 mm 1777-1806 avg ... 54.3 mm (lowest running 30-yr avg) ___ ___ 1959-1988 avg 60.6 mm (secondary min) __ recent min ... 13.8 mm (1993) _ 2023 was 16.5 mm Driest Feb ... ... ... ... .. 3.6 mm (1891) ____________________________________________________________ 2023 _16.5 mm ... ... 2022 _104.4 mm ... ... 2021 _ 78.9 mm ... ... 2020 _169.5 mm ... ... 2019 _ 54.2 mm 2018 _ 52.8 mm ... ... 2017 _ 72.0 mm ... ... 2016 _ 80.0 mm ... ... 2015 _ 59.3 mm ... ... 2014 _136.7 mm 2013 _ 48.3 mm ... ... 2012 _ 32.1 mm ... ... 2011 _ 81.2 mm ... ... 2010 _ 87.2 mm ... ... 2009 _ 60.9 mm 2008 _ 40.2 mm ... ... 2007 _111.6 mm ... ... 2006 _ 57.7 mm ... ... 2005 _ 46.2 mm ... ... 2004 _ 50.2 mm 2003 _ 38.8 mm ... ... 2002 _ 115.1 mm ... ... 2001 _ 105.3 mm ... ... 2000 _ 95.1 mm ... ... 1999 _ 50.0 mm ====================================================================== Combine your predictions and edit up to deadline as you wish. __ Good luck !! __

Fixed error in previous post, was allotting ten days to 21-31 Jan for the erroneous portion. Today's 00z run looks even milder, could be flirting with 1846 record of 8.9 C for interval. (record war June followed in 1846) ... Currently working on February 2024 thread, should be up and running by 0900 or so.

Even at 3.5 after 20 Jan, 21-31 Jan would need to beat the existing high average for that period (8.9 C 1846) to reach 6.0; 3.5 x 20 = 70 9.0 x 11 = 99 total = 169 169/31 = 5.45 even at 10 C, total = 180, average 5.81 so it would require an average of 10.5 C, can't see that personally, think average will be around 8.0 to 8.5 which would give an outcome of about 5.0 C to 5.2 C

Today's update (3.3 C) should read 18th not 17th. CET low was -6.7 C, Pershore was -9.7. Both CET and EWP will be up, up and away starting Saturday. Today looks to be around a zero C average so next report should be about 3.1 C.

Feb 69 was quite cold (CET around 1 C) and had a strong northerly around 7th that set some records for wind speeds in Scotland.

Warmest average CET 16-31, 17-31 and 21-31 January Years are ranked for each interval, 17-31 Jan is my preferred version of "second half January." I added 21-31 Jan because it is likely to be a generally mild period. Added on 1 Feb _ 2024 average was 7.58 for 21-31 ... 9th highest average. All in table 1918 and down lose one spot as a result. Averages for 16-31 and 17-31 were outside top thirty at 5.33 and 5.67. Rank _ YEAR __ 16-31 Jan __ [][][] __Rank_ YEAR_ 17-31 Jan __ [][] __ Rank _YEAR_ 21-31 Jan _01 ___ 1846 __ 8.34 _______ [][][] _ 01 ___ 1846 __ 8.41 _______[][] __ 01 ___ 1846 __ 8.88 _02 ___ 1804 __ 8.19 _______ [][][] _ 02 ___ 1804 __ 8.15 _______[][] __ 02 ___ 2002 __ 8.47 _03 ___ 1921 __ 7.84 _______ [][][] _ 03 ___ 1921 __ 8.04 _______[][] __ 03 ___ 1921 __ 8.23 _04 ___ 1796 __ 7.73 _______ [][][] _ 04 ___ 2002 __ 7.87 _______[][] __ 04 ___ 1804 __ 8.17 _05 ___ 2002 __ 7.71 _______ [][][] _ 05 ___ 1828 __ 7.77 _______[][] __ 05 ___ 1969 __ 7.94 _06 ___ 1834 __ 7.44 _______ [][][] _ 06 ___ 1898 __ 7.67 _______[][] __ 06 ___ 2016 __ 7.72 _07 ___ 2008 __ 7.41 _______ [][][] _ 07 ___ 1796 __ 7.59 _______[][] __ 07 ___ 1834 __ 7.68 _08 ___ 1828 __ 7.40 _______ [][][] _ 08 ___ 2008 __ 7.56 _______[][] __ 08 ___ 1898 __ 7.64 _09 ___ 1898 __ 7.36 _______ [][][] _ 09t___ 1834 __ 7.36 _______[][] __ 09 ___ 1918 __ 7.43 _10 ___ 1916 __ 7.33 _______ [][][] _ 09t___ 1916 __ 7.36 _______[][] __ 10 ___ 1796 __ 7.36 _11 ___ 1993 __ 6.88 ______ [][][] _ 11 ___ 1969 __ 7.03 _______ [][] __ 11 ___ 1967 __ 7.25 _12 ___ 1990 __ 6.78_______ [][][] _ 12 ___ 1967 __ 7.01 _______ [][] __ 12 ___ 1843 __ 7.14^ _13t___ 1967 __ 6.73 _______[][][] _ 13 ___ 1918 __ 6.87 _______ [][] __ 13 ___ 1916 __ 7.13 _13t___ 1969 __ 6.73 _______[][][] _ 14 ___ 1943 __ 6.79 _______ [][] __ 14 ___ 1943 __ 7.10 _15 ___ 1943 __ 6.70 ______[][][] _ 15 ___ 1817 __ 6.69 ______ [][] __ 15 ___ 1828 __ 7.08 _16 ___ 1968 __ 6.59 _______ [][][] _ 16 ___ 1993 __ 6.66 _______ [][] __ 16 ___ 2008 __ 7.04 _17 ___ 1938 __ 6.53 _______ [][][] _ 17 ___ 1990 __ 6.51 _______ [][] __ 17 ___ 1944 __ 6.97 _18 ___ 1866 __ 6.51 _______ [][][] _ 18 ___ 1968 __ 6.48 _______ [][] __ 18 ___ 1817 __ 6.92 _19 ___ 1918 __ 6.45 _______ [][][] _ 19 ___ 1866 __ 6.46 _______ [][] __ 19 ___ 1782 __ 6.89^ _20 ___ 1817 __ 6.39 _______ [][][] _ 20 ___ 1944 __ 6.44 _______ [][] __ 20 ___ 1994 __ 6.75 _21t___ 1854 __ 6.35 _______ [][][] _ 21 ___ 1938 __ 6.43 _______ [][] __ 21 ___ 1903 __ 6.72^ _21t___ 1974 __ 6.35 _______ [][][] _ 22 ___ 1854 __ 6.41 _______[][] __ 22 ___ 1863 __ 6.68 _23 ___ 1875 __ 6.34 _______ [][][] _ 23t___ 1884 __ 6.35 _______ [][] __ 23 ___ 2018 __ 6.65 _24 ___ 1920 __ 6.32 _______ [][][] _ 23t___ 1974 __ 6.35 _______ [][] __ 24 ___ 1938 __ 6.59 _25 ___ 1884 __ 6.31 ______ [][][] _ 25 ___ 1840 __ 6.28 ______ [][] __ 25 ___1993 __ 6.55 _26 ___ 1840 __ 6.23 ______ [][][] _ 26 ___ 1863 __ 6.25 ______ [][] __ 26 ___ 1840 __ 6.51 _27 ___ 1859 __ 6.14 ______ [][][] _ 27t___ 1859 __ 6.23 ______ [][] __ 27 ___ 1923 __ 6.50 _28 ___ 1844 __ 6.12 _______ [][][] _ 27t ___ 1875 __ 6.23 _______ [][] __ 28 ___ 1884 __ 6.48 _29 ___ 1923 __ 6.03 _______ [][][] _ 29 ___ 1843 __ 6.15 ______ [][] __ 29 ___ 1990 __ 6.48 _30t___ 1863,2003_ 6.02 __ [][][] _ 30 ___ 1920 __ 6.14 _______ [][] __ 30 ____ 1975 __ 6.45 ------------------- Table entries above not in top 30 for 21-31 Jan, also non-table entries in t32 plus second half averages rank 31 for 21-31 _ 1854 (6.42) in table rank t32 for 21-31_ 1824 (6.30) 5.19, 5.45 rank t32 for 21-31 _1983 (6.30) 6.01, 5.77 rank 34 for 21-31 __ 1866 (6.03) in table rank 38 for 21-31 __ 1859 (5.91) in table rank not top 50 __ 1920 (5.53) in table rank not top 50 __ 1875 (5.44) in table 2007 did not qualify for table at all, values were 5.92, 5.79, 4.55 ----------------------------------- ^ Values for ranked 21st-31th Jan (above) not qualifying for top ten second half January: Ranked _____ Average 16-31 ___ Ranked _____ Average 17-31 _03 21-31 ___ 2016 __ 5.69 ___ [][] _ 03 21-31 ___ 2016 __ 6.05 __ _12 21-31 ___ 1843 __ 5.92 ___ [][] _ 12 21-31 ___ 1843 __ 6.15 (in table) _19 21-31 ___ 1782 __ 4.26 ___ [][] _ 19 21-31 ___ 1782 __ 4.48 __ _20 21-31 ___ 1994 __ 5.69 ___ [][] _ 17 21-31 ___ 1994 __ 5.91 __ _21 21-31 ___ 1903 __ 4.84 ___ [][] _ 15 21-31 ___ 1903 __ 5.27 __ _23 21-31 ___ 2018 __ 5.76 ___ [][] _ 20 21-31 ___ 2018 __ 5.85 __ _30 21-31 ___ 1923 __ 6.03 __ [][] _ 30 21-31 ___ 1923 __ 6.01 _30 21-31 ___ 1975 __ 5.71 __ [][] _ 30 21-31 ___ 1975 __ 5.77 2003 values 6.02 5.97 5.86

A minor point, but it partly depends on whether you look at second half of any 31-day month as being 16th-31st or 17th-31st (summer blizzard and I discussed this once, we both favoured 17-31 but some prefer 16-31). With 16th Jan already in books as a cold day, it would reduce second half of January average by about 0.4 if included. I will ask my data base to spit out top averages for 16-31 and 17-31 Jan. Just on my way out so it will be posted a few hours from now.

Well, today's GFS run was not as cold at end of January, but CET is dropping down steadily so I would take all of the above from a point closer to 3.5 by 20 Jan (possibly). I would say 5.2 based on today's guidance. But it could keep on changing if we get into the often-seen GFS day to day flip flop routine. Just looked in my CET data base for all cases where January was above 7 at any point in first half, was below 4.2 at any point in period 15-20 Jan, and was at or above 4.8 at end. The search yielded these cases listed in reverse chronological order: JANUARY ______ high point early _____ below 4 15-20 ______ outcome ____ FEB CET 1981 ________ 7.6 (3rd) ____________ 4.1 16th-19th ____________ 4.8 ________ 3.0 1943 ________ 7.6 (1st) ____________ 1.6 (9th), 3.1 16th ________ 4.9 ________ 6.1 1863 ________ 7.8 (1st) ____________ 3.6 17th __________________ 4.9 ________ 5.8 Very few analogues found, so I broadened the criteria to include the following "nearly" and well correlated non qualifiers: JANUARY ______ high point early _____ below 4 15-20 ______ outcome ____ FEB CET 2003 ________ 7.0 (2nd) ___________ 1.7 11th-12th, 3.0 16th__4.4 (4.7 29th)_ 3.9 1973 ________ 6.2 (5th) ____________ 3.5 20th-21st ____________ 4.5 ________ 4.3 1960 ________ 9.5 (1st) _____________2.8 17th-18th ____________3.8 ________ 4.1 1926 ________ 7.3 (6th) ____________ 3.7 19th -23rd ___________ 4.6 ________ 6.8 1924 ________ 7.0 (2nd) ____________2.3 10th, 3.6 17th ________4.7 ________ 3.3 1903 ________ 6.1 (7th) ____________ 2.8 19th-21st ____________ 4.2 ________ 7.1 1840 ________ 9.3 (1st) ____________ 1.3 12th-13th ____________ 4.1 ________ 3.6 1824 ________ 8.1 (1st) ____________ 3.0 17th-18th ____________ 4.3 ________ 4.7 1817 ________ 7.0 (1st) ____________ 2.4 16th __________________4.5 ________ 6.4 1797 _________7.6 (1st) _____________ below 2.2 11-19 ________ 3.5 ________ 4.6 Also, 1982 while colder went 6.9 (5th), -0.3 15th-16th, ended 2.7________ 4.8 2016 a fainter signal, 6.4 (5th-7th), 4.2 on 21st, and ended on 5.5 _______5.1 2018 a fainter signal, 6.7 (4th), 4.6 12th-13th, 20th-22nd, ended 5.3_____3.1 ======================== It would appear that this relatively rare type of January is often followed by an average to mild February. 1926 and 2003 were very close to qualifying, outcomes were somewhat anemic compared to the three years that did qualify. It appears that 1863 could be the closest analogue but 1926 looks very similar. I also looked at following Febs in detail and noticed a strong tendency for one cold spell around mid-month to late February, same general idea as January, mild to colder and often back to mild but not always. 1840 did have a sustained cold second half, subzero CET values around 18-22 Feb. 1903 registered several near-record highs, no cold spell, and ended with a severe windstorm (27 Feb). 1960 was generally a cold Feb but ended with two very mild days, setting record of 12.0 on leap year day.

I believe we will see a min of 3.5 reported on Saturday for 1-19 Jan, it will edge up to 3.6 after Sat 20 Jan, and afterwards, mean dailies 21st to 31st look like on today's 12z GFS run: 21 _ 8.5 22 _ 7.0 23 _10.5 24 _ 7.5 25 _ 9.0 26 _11.0 27 _ 6.0 28 _ 5.0 29 _ 4.0 30 _ 3.0 31 _ 2.0 ... and outcome would be 4.6 C It does turn very mild but colder end to January now depicted cancels out some of warming, running CET peaks at 4.8 after 27 Jan in my estimate. Could go up or down depending on model accuracy after seven days (warm spike could be overdone, or warm interval could be prolonged).

CET will fall gradually to 19th and probably hit a low point of around 3.7 C. After that, while it's a milder pattern, there's a bit of cold zonal tendency, would not expect day after day of 8-10 means, probably an average near 6.2 for 20-31 Jan, combined with the 3.7 estimate to 19th, gives an outcome of 4.7 C. Let's say 4.4 to 5.0, not particularly mild by recent standards. EWP current value is 52.5 mm, GFS suggests about 45 mm grid average to 29 Jan, so 100 mm or so could be good (final map on 29 Jan would not suggest much additional rainfall 30-31 Jan). 80 to 120 probably still in play given usual uncertainty in 16-day GFS rainfall estimates. It is not likely to be a total bust, although that would work for me (as would a non-appearance of the milder interval).

Estimate to 9th would be 4.5 C. Their down times are usually about a week so expecting resumed service soon.

Estimate for CET to 7th is 5.4 C; after today, 4.9 C.

Would say the actual figure for CET is around 6.2 C after 6th, give or take 0.3. Will be 5.7 after today (eventually it will update, will continue to estimate values until it does).