Roger J Smith

The EWP table value is 111.5 mm. This will produce a few changes in EWP scoring and tables will be edited later today. I will copy the EWP scoring table as edited and display it in another post in a while; the best combined CET-EWP table will be edited in place. B87 had the closest forecast at 110 mm, but with a two-day late penalty, so virtualsphere at second scoring level (9.80) was top score. The result was beneficial to DR(S)NO who gained about two points compared to the provisional scoring from 106 mm.

So I worked out daily averages for top ten, all are quite close and if Feb was a warmer contributor they tended to go down a bit, if Feb was a colder contributor, they went up. For 1734 I took a weighted average since there was no daily data. I added those values to tables above. 1957 went up a few ranks as its Feb wasn't very mild compared to most.

Top ten CET averages after JAN, FEB, MAR and APR ... I calculated them by simple arithmetic of adding four monthly values and dividing by four, no doubt the metoffice would come up with slightly different values using some other formula but the order is probably going to be same ... Rank __ YEAR ___ JAN_FEB_MAR_APR ___ average** ____ 2024 needs to tie (20.6 so far) _ 01 ___ 2007 ___ 7.0 _ 6.0 _ 7.3 _ 11.3 ____ 7.88 (7.90) _____ 11.0 _ 02 ___ 2020 ___ 6.4 _ 6.5 _ 6.8 _ 10.5 ____ 7.55 (7.55) ______ 9.6 _t03 ___ 1990 ___ 6.5 _ 7.3 _ 8.3 __ 8.0 ____ 7.53 (7.51) ______ 9.5 _t03 ___ 2014 ___ 5.8 _ 6.3 _ 7.7 _ 10.3 ____ 7.53 (7.53) ______ 9.5 _ 05 ___ 2002 ___ 5.5 _ 7.0 _ 7.6 __ 9.3 _____ 7.35 (7.32) ______ 8.8 _t06 ___ 1961 ___ 3.9 _ 6.9 _ 8.2 _ 10.0 _____ 7.25 (7.24) ______ 8.4 _t06 ___ 2011 ___ 3.8 _ 6.5 _ 6.8 _ 11.9 _____ 7.25 (7.21) ______ 8.4 _ 08 ___ 1957 ___ 5.5 _ 5.3 _ 9.2 __ 8.9 _____ 7.23 (7.25) ______ 8.3 _t09 ___ 1733 ___ 6.9 _ 6.0 _ 5.9 _ 10.0 _____ 7.20 (7.21) ______ 8.2 _t09 ___ 2022 ___ 4.7 _ 6.9 _ 8.0 __ 9.2 _____ 7.20 (7.18) ______ 8.2 11-21 are t11 1734&1779 (7.03), t13 1686&1943&2017&2019 (7.00) 17 1998 (6.95). 18 1999 (6.90) and t19 1834&1921&1938 (6.88) ... several incl 2023 are t22 at 6.85 ** average (second value in brackets is daily mean). A somewhat different order is created by using that method.

Two of the warmest seven-day intervals in April, against warmest seven days of April 2011 and 2018, include: 1893 ___ 1945 ___ 2011 ___ 2018 19-25 __ 14-20 __ 19-25 __ 16-22 14.3 ____ 11.8 ____ 13.3 ____ 11.1 16.7 ____ 16.3 ____ 13.4 ____ 13.2 15.8 ____ 17.1 ____ 15.5 ____ 17.0 13.9 ____ 14.4 ____ 15.4 ____ 17.7 13.0 ____ 14.6 ____ 15.9 ____ 14.5 13.9 ____ 14.6 ____ 13.5 ____ 14.3 15.0 ____ 14.8 ____ 12.8 ____ 14.5 avg _____ avg _____ avg _____ avg 14.66 ___ 14.80 ___ 14.26 ___ 14.61 In mid-April 1949, two days near 16 and a weekly average 12-18 of 13.8 C. In April 2007, two intervals of about 3-4 days with comparable temps, not quite a sustained week to compare. Then of course the end of April 1775, 26-30 April average was 16.7 (24-25 only 11.0, so a seven day average of 15.1 C). These are the most impressive warm spells in April in the records. As the 1775 spell stayed warm into early may, it managed an average near 16 C for seven days if we include 1-2 may.

BlueSkies_do_I_see Apologies I did not really take in your request (?), are you actually wanting a revision to 11.6? (if you do there would be a late penalty to the time of your post, which looks to be two days? I see posting times in my own time zone which can be confusing for me. So it's your choice, you didn't quite say "for sure I want to change to 11.6" but I didn't respond to it yesterday.

EWP tracker ended up at 110.7 mm, but I will wait until 5 April and appearance of EWP table value before editing any scoring tables, if that value prevails, B87 (110) ends up in highest scoring level but with a 2d late penalty, virtualsphere (104) stays in first place on points. DR(S)NO (129) would gain a few points also, passing several forecasts in range of 75 to 92 mm. As final value could be anywhere in range of 104 to 118 based on past experience, I will wait for a final value on 5th (Friday) to do any adjusting. 110.7 mm is t-13 with 1812. A top ten finish would require 116.2 mm.

I edited a post back on page 8, speculating about 2024's position after three months. As expected, into second place behind 1990 and ahead of 2007: Top ten portion (a longer list can be seen in the original post on page 8). Jan to Mar average (top ten now) and what 2024 needed to tie Rank ___ YEAR __ JAN _FEB _MAR ____ Average ___ 2024 to tie _ 01 ____ 1990 ___ 6.5 _ 7.3 _ 8.3 _____ 7.37 ________ 9.6 _ 02 ? ___2024 ___ 4.7 _ 7.8 _ 8.1 _____ 6.87 ________ (result) _ edited in on 2nd April ... as 2024 secured 2nd, following ranks are now one greater ... _ 03 ____ 2007 ___ 7.0 _ 6.0 _ 7.3 _____ 6.77 ________ 7.8 _t04 ____ 1998 ___ 5.1 _ 7.2 _ 7.8 _____ 6.70 ________ 7.6 _t04 ____ 2002 ___ 5.5 _ 7.0 _ 7.6 _____ 6.70 ________ 7.6 _ 06 ____ 1957 ___ 5.5 _ 5.3 _ 9.2 _____ 6.67 ________ 7.5 _ 07 ____ 1938 ___ 5.7 _ 5.1 _ 9.1 _____ 6.63 ________ 7.4 _t08 ____ 1834 ___ 7.1 _ 5.6 _ 7.1 _____ 6.60 ________ 7.3 _t08 ____ 2014 ___ 5.8 _ 6.3 _ 7.7 _____ 6.60 ________ 7.3 _ 10 ____ 2020 ___ 6.4 _ 6.5 _ 6.8 _____ 6.57 ________ 7.2

Metwatch Just posted table with highest value of running CET 12.4 (1926) for 7 April, 2011 takes over after 9 April except for a spell of 1945 running values that edged ahead 18-20 April. 1778 popped in as a tied value on 13th. If we do get into near-record territory I will post a list of top ten or top twenty values to whatever date appears to be significant.

April CET extremes and 1981-2010 averages, extreme values of running CET NOTE: All temperature data now converted to v2.0. DATE ___ MAX yr _________ MIN yr ____________ CET __cum CET ____ Max CET __ Min CET 01 Apr ... 13.4 (1995) ........--0.0 (1799&1917) __8.3 _____ 8.3 ____ 13.4 (1995) __--0.0 (1799&1917) 02 Apr ... 13.9 (1835) ........--0.4 (1917) _________8.1 _____ 8.2 ____ 13.2 (2011) __--0.2 (1917) 03 Apr ... 15.0 (1946) ........ --0.5 (1799) ________ 7.4 _____ 7.9 ____ 12.9 (1946) __ 0.0 (1917) 04 Apr ... 15.6 (1946)......... 1.0 (1809&1830) ___7.1 _____ 7.7 ____ 13.6 (1946) __ 0.5 (1799) 05 Apr ... 13.2 (1857) ......... 0.5 (1911) _________ 7.1 _____ 7.6 ____ 12.8 (1926,46)__1.2 (1917) 06 Apr ... 15.2 (2011) ......... 0.8 (1911) _________ 7.5 _____ 7.6 ____ 12.6 (1926) __ 1.4 (1917) 07 Apr ... 14.7 (1859) ......... 1.0 (1839) _________ 7.3 _____ 7.5 ____ 12.4 (1926) __ 1.7 (1917) 08 Apr ... 13.1 (2020) ......... 2.4 (1780) _________ 7.2 _____ 7.5 ____ 12.0 (1926) __ 2.1 (1917) 09 Apr ... 13.8 (2017) ......... 1.4 (1812) _________ 7.5 _____ 7.5 ____ 11.8 (2011) __ 2.2 (1917) 10 Apr ... 14.1 (2020) ......... 0.5 (1837) _________ 8.2 _____ 7.6 ____ 11.8 (2011) __ 2.1 (1917) 11 Apr ... 15.9 (1869) ......... 1.3 (1978) _________ 8.1 _____ 7.6 ____ 11.8 (2011) __ 2.2 (1917) 12 Apr ... 14.5 (1939) ......... 1.1 (1879) _________ 7.8 _____ 7.6 ____ 11.5 (2011) __ 2.3 (1917) 13 Apr ... 14.6 (1792) ......... 1.1 (1816) _________ 7.5 _____ 7.6 ____ 11.2 (1778,2011)__2.4 (1917) 14 Apr ... 15.9 (1869) ......... 0.5 (1966)*_________8.0 _____ 7.7 ____ 11.1 (2011) __ 2.5 (1917) _ *(also 0.6 1816) 15 Apr ... 16.3 (1945) ......... 1.5 (1966) _________ 8.3 _____ 7.7 ____ 11.1 (2011) __ 2.6 (1917) 16 Apr ... 17.1 (1945) ......... 2.2 (1837&1892) ___8.6 ____ 7.8 ____ 11.1 (2011) __ 2.8 (1917) 17 Apr ... 14.8 (1865&2003) .. 2.1 (1793&1812) _ 8.4 ___7.8 ____ 11.1 (2011) _ 2.8 (1917) 18 Apr ... 17.0 (2018) ......... 1.7 (1807) _________ 8.1 _____ 7.8 ____ 11.2 (1945) __ 3.0 (1837,1917) 19 Apr ... 17.7 (2018) .........--0.2 (1772) _________8.2 _____ 7.8 ____ 11.4 (1945) __ 3.2 (1837) 20 Apr ... 16.7 (1893) ......... 2.3 (1849) _________ 8.4 _____ 7.9 ____ 11.5 (1945) __ 3.3 (1837) 21 Apr ... 15.8 (1893) ......... 2.4 (1936) _________ 9.2 _____ 7.9 ____ 11.6 (2011) _ 3.3 (1837) 22 Apr ... 15.4 (2011) ......... 3.4 (1778) _________ 9.4 _____ 8.0 ____ 11.7 (2011) __ 3.5 (1837) 23 Apr ... 15.9 (2011) ......... 2.5 (1908) _________ 9.7 _____ 8.1 ____ 11.9 (2011) __ 3.6 (1837) 24 Apr ... 15.4 (2007) ......... 0.6 (1908) _________ 9.7 _____ 8.1 ____ 12.0 (2011) __ 3.7 (1837) 25 Apr ... 15.9 (1821) ......... 1.8 (1908) ________ 10.1 _____ 8.2 ____ 12.0 (2011) __ 3.9 (1837) 26 Apr ... 15.9 (1821) ......... 3.4 (1981) ________ 10.1 _____ 8.3 ____ 11.9 (2011) __ 4.1 (1837) 27 Apr ... 16.3 (1866) ......... 2.8 (1919) ________ 10.1 _____ 8.4 ____ 11.9 (2011) __ 4.2 (1837) 28 Apr ... 16.9 (1775) ......... 3.0 (1826) _________ 9.9 _____ 8.4 ____ 11.8 (2011) __ 4.4 (1837) 29 Apr ... 19.7 (1775) ......... 0.7 (1856) _________ 9.9 _____ 8.5 ____ 11.8 (2011) __ 4.5 (1837) 30 Apr ... 17.4 (1775) ......... 2.7 (1945) ________ 10.5 _____ 8.5 ____ 11.9 (2011) __ 4.7 (1701&1837)* * Min CET on 30th from monthly averages, no daily data for 1701 otherwise. =========================================================================== 1991-2020 CET daily averages and running means 1 __ 8.3 _ 8.3 ___ _ 6 __ 8.4 _ 8.2 ___ _ 11 __ 8.4 _ 8.2 ______ 16 __ 8.6 _ 8.3 ___ _ 21 __10.0 _ 8.5 ___ _ 26 __10.0 _ 8.8 2 __ 8.6 _ 8.5 ___ _ 7 __ 8.0 _ 8.1 ___ _ 12 __ 8.3 _ 8.3 ______ 17 __ 8.8 _ 8.3 ___ _ 22 __10.2 _ 8.5 ___ _ 27 __ 9.8 _ 8.9 3 __ 8.0 _ 8.3 ___ _ 8 __ 8.1 _ 8.1 ___ _ 13 __ 7.8 _ 8.2 ______ 18 __ 8.6 _ 8.3 ___ _ 23 __10.5 _ 8.6 ___ _ 28 __ 9.7 _ 8.9 4 __ 7.7 _ 8.2 ___ _ 9 __ 8.5 _ 8.2 ___ _ 14 __ 8.4 _ 8.2 ______ 19 __ 8.8 _ 8.3 ___ _ 24 __10.6 _ 8.7 ___ _ 29 __ 9.8 _ 8.9 5 __ 8.0 _ 8.1 ___ _10__ 8.7 _ 8.2 ___ _ 15 __ 8.6 _ 8.3 ______ 20 __ 9.2 _ 8.4 ___ _ 25 __10.6 _ 8.8 ___ _ 30 __10.3 _ 9.0 (8.97)

CET-EWP Contest Results including best combined _ based on 8.1 C and 111.5 mm _ CET ranks are jogged one down for one day late and two for two days late. That is already incorporated into EWP scoring. Table will be adjusted for EWP and best combined on 5 April using "table values" for EWP. CET Rank _ CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (order of entry) ____ EWP rank ____ Best combined info (to 32nd) _ 01 __ 8.1 _ --- --- __ Typhoon John ( 9 ) _______________ --- _ 02 __ 8.2 _ 82.0 __ Methuselah ( 2 ) __________________22 _____ 24 _____ 5th best combined _ 03 __ 8.0 _ 60.0 __ The PIT (22) ______________________ 44 _____ 47 _____t22nd best combined _ 04 __ 8.2 _ 94.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (38) _____________ 9 _____ 13 _____ tied best combined _ 05 __ 7.9 _ 43.0 __ Summer Shower (24) _____________49 _____ 54 _____28th best combined _ 06 __ 7.9 _ --- --- __ Mark Bayley (25) _________________ --- _ 07 __ 7.9 _ 95.0 __ Stationary Front (28) ______________ 6 _____ 13 _____ tied best combined _ 08 __ 8.3 _ 94.0 __ Emmett Garland (37) ______________ 8 _____ 16 _____ 3rd best combined _ 09 __ 7.9 _ 72.0 __ Don (41) __________________________ 36 _____ 45 _____t17th best combined _ 10 __ 8.4 _ 53.8 __ WYorksWeather (23) ______________48 _____ 58 _____31st best combined _ 11 __ 7.8 _ 81.0 __ feb1991blizzard (36) ______________24 _____ 35 _____ 7th best combined _ 12 __ 7.8 _ 87.5 __ snowray (39) ______________________20 _____ 32 _____ 6th best combined _ 14 __ 7.8 _ 54.0 __ sunny_vale (L1-5) _________________ 47 _____ 61 _ 13 __ 7.7 _ 77.0 __ dancerwithwings (13) _____________29 _____ 42 _____t12th best combined _ 15 __ 7.7 _ --- --- __ Summer Sun (29) _________________ _ 16 __ 7.7 _ 95.0 __ Mr Maunder (32) __________________ 6 _____ 22 _____ 4th best combined _ 17 __ 7.6 _ 77.0 __ Reef (18) __________________________30 _____ 47 _____t22nd best combined _ 18 __ 7.6 _ 85.0 __ J 10 (43) ___________________________21 _____ 39 _____ t9th best combined _ 19 __ 7.5 _ 78.0 __ summer8906 ( 5 ) _________________27 _____ 46 _____t19th best combined _ 20 __ 7.5 _ --- --- __ Damianslaw (40) _________________ --- _ 21 __ 7.4 _ 78.8 __ Roger J Smith (26) _________________25 _____ 46 _____t19th best combined _ 23 __ 7.4 _ 88.0 __ stewfox (L1-6) _____________________19 _____ 42 _____t12th best combined _ 22 __ 7.3 _ 78.0 __ I Remember Atlantic252 (16) _____ 28 _____ 50 _____ 24th best combined _ 24 __ 7.3 _ 74.0 __ summer blizzard (15) _____________ 33 _____ 57 _____t29th best combined _ 25 __ 7.3 _ 91.6 __ Weather26 (35) ___________________ 12 _____ 38 _____ 8th best combined _ 25 __ 7.2 _ 78.0 __ consensus _________________________ 27 _____ 52 _____ = 27th best combined _ 26 __ 7.2 _ 90.0 __ Let It Snow! ( 3 ) ___________________13 _____ 39 _____t9th best combined _ 27 __ 7.2 _ 72.0 __ Frigid (21) _________________________ 35 _____ 62 _ 28 __ 7.2 _ 77.0 __ Mulzy (30) _________________________ 31 _____ 59 _____t32nd best combined _ 29 __ 7.2 _ 89.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (33) ______________16 _____ 45 _____t17th best combined _ 30 __ 7.1 _ 66.0 __ shillitocettwo (11) _________________ 41 _____ 71 _ 31 __ 7.1 _ 67.0 __ Weather Observer (31) ____________40 _____ 71 _ 33 __ 7.1 _ 88.0 __ seaside60 (L1-2) ___________________18 _____ 51 _____t25th best combined _ 32 __ 7.0 _ 90.0 __ weatherforducks (27) _____________ 14 _____ 46 _____t19th best combined _ 34 __ 6.9 _ 72.5 __ bobd29 ( 1 ) _______________________ 34 _____ 68 _ 35 __ 9.3 _ --- --- __ BlueSkies_do_I_see (10) _________ --- _ 36 __ 6.9 _129.0__ DR(S)NO (12) ______________________ 8 _____ 44 _____t15th best combined _ 38 __ 6.9 _110.0__ B87 (L2-1) _________________________ 3 _____ 41 _____11th best combined _ 37 __ 6.8 _ 95.0 __ syed2878 (17) _____________________ 5 _____ 42 _____t12th best combined _ 39 __ 6.8 _ 68.0 __ February1978 (44) ________________39 _____ 78 _ 40 __ 6.7 _ 65.4 __ mean 1991-2020 __________________41.2 ___81.2 _ 40 __ 6.7 _ 67.3 __ mean 1994-2023 _________________39.7 ___79.7 _ 40 __ 6.7 _ 60.0 __ Leo97t ( 4 ) ________________________43 _____ 83 _ 41 __ 6.7 _ 88.0 __ summer18 ( 6 ) ___________________ 17 _____ 58 _____t28th best combined _ 42 __ 6.7 _ 94.0 __ SteveB (L1-4) ______________________11 _____ 53 _____27th best combined _ 43 __ 6.6 _ 71.5 __ mean 1981-2010 _________________ 36.2 ____79.2 _ 43 __ 6.6 _104.0__ virtualsphere ( 7 ) _________________ 1 _____ 44 _____t15th best combined _ 44 __ 6.6 _ 82.0 __ rwtwm (20) _______________________ 23 _____ 67 _ 45 __ 6.5 _ 76.5 __ Metwatch (47) ____________________ 32 _____ 77 _ 46 __ 6.4 _ 70.0 __ jonboy (14) _______________________ 37 _____ 83 _ 47 __ 6.3 _ 63.0 __ Godber 1 (46) ____________________ 42 _____ 89 _ 49 __ 6.3 _ 70.0 __ davehsug (L1-3) __________________ 38 _____ 87 _ 48 __10.0 _ 95.1 __ Polar Gael (19) ___________________ 3 _____ 51 _____t25th best combined _ 50 __ 6.1 _ 55.0 __ Neil N ( 8 ) ________________________46 _____ 96 _ 53 __ 6.0 _ 81.0 __ Wade (L2-2) ______________________ 26 _____ 79 _ 51 __ 5.4 _ 60.0 __ daniel* (45) _______________________45 _____ 96 _(51)__ 5.4 _ 61.6 __ average all data _________________42.5 ___ 93.5 _ 52 __ 4.9 _ 95.0 __ SLEETY (34) _______________________ 7 _____ 59 _____t32nd best combined _ 55 __ 4.5 _ 90.0 __ Jeff C ( L1-1 ) ______________________15 _____ 70 _ 54 __ 4.1 _ --- --- __ Kentish Man (42) _________________ ---

I agree, and I will add your forecast in now ... up to you of course, but I won't consider it late for EWP anyway.

Table of forecasts for April 2024 CET _ EWP __ FORECASTER (order of entry) _________EWP forecasts in order 11.5 _115.7__ Roger J Smith (40) ____________________153.0 _ Met. 11.0 _ 95.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard (50) _________________135.0 _ LetItSnow! 10.6 _ 90.0 __ sunny_vale (33) ______________________ 133.0 _ I Remember Atlantic252 10.5 _ 85.5 __ Polar Gael (32) _______________________ 131.8 _ Kirkcaldy Weather 10.4 _100.0__ Methuselah ( 7 ) ______________________130.0 _ Emmett Garland 10.4 _110.0__ WYorksWeather (23) _________________ 130.0 _ summer8906 10.4 _111.0__ DR(S)NO (49) _________________________127.0 _ snowray 10.4 _104.0__ Stationary Front (52) _________________125.0 _ Don ^ 10.3 _ 85.0 __ Matt Stoke (22) _______________________ 120.0 _ B87 10.2 _110.0__ Addicks Fan 1981 (26,2.5) _____________115.7 _ Roger J Smith 10.1 _ --- ---__ Typhoon John ( 3 ) _____________________113.0 _ Midlands Ice Age 10.1 _ --- ---__ Summer Sun (33) ______________________112.0 _ chilly milly 10.0 _ 94.0 __ February1978 (54) ____________________ 111.0 _ summer 18 10.0 _ 75.0 __ J 10 (56) _______________________________ 111.0 _ DR(S)NO 9.9 _130.0__ Emmett Garland (21) ___________________110.0 _ Addicks Fan 1981 9.8 _127.0__ snowray (31) ___________________________ 110.0 _ WYorksWeather 9.8 _ 89.0 __ Weather Observer (46) _________________ 110.0 _ Frigid 9.8 _107.0__ seaside60 (L1-2) ________________________ 110.0 _ jonboy 9.7 _ 45.0 __ stewfox (12) ____________________________ 9.7 _ 67.0 __ Weather 26 (14) ________________________ 108.0 _ Metwatch 9.7 _ --- --- __ Mark Bayley (44) _______________________ 107.0 _ seaside60 ^ 9.6 _ --- --- __ Blue_Skies_do_I_See (29) _______________104.0 _ Stationary Front 9.6 _ --- --- __ damianslaw (43) _______________________ 100.0 _ Methuselah 9.6 _ 97.0 __ Mr Maunder (48) _______________________ 100.0 _ Leo97t 9.6 _108.0__ Metwatch (51) __________________________ 100.0 _ syed2878 9.5 _ 70.0 __ virtualsphere (10) _______________________ 9.5 _100.0__ syed2878 (38) ___________________________ 97.0 _ mulzy 9.5 _ 90.0 __ weatherforducks (42) ___________________ 97.0 _ MrMaunder 9.5 _ 87.0 __ davehsug (L1-1) _________________________ 96.5 _ Thomas Green 9.4 _ 96.5 __ consensus ______________________________ 96.5 _ consensus 9.4 _135.0__ LetItSnow! (20) __________________________ 95.0 _ Feb1991Blizzard 9.4 _110.0__ Frigid (24) ________________________________94.0 _ February1978 9.4 _113.0__ Midlands Ice Age (45) ____________________92.0 _ Pulpstar 9.3 _ 84.0 __ dancerwithwings ( 1 ) ____________________91.0 _ rwtwm 9.3 _ 91.0 __ rwtwm (19) ______________________________ 90.0 _ Bluehedgehog074 9.3 _125.0__ Don (L1-3) _______________________________ 90.0 _ sunny_vale 9.2 _ 53.0 __ summer blizzard ( 9 ) ____________________ 90.0 _ weatherforducks 9.2 _ 92.0 __ Pulpstar (28) _____________________________ 89.0 _ Weather Observer 9.2 _ 97.0 __ mulzy (41) _______________________________ 89.0 _ daniel* 9.1 _ 60.1 __ Bobd29 ( 6 ) _____________________________ 87.0 _ davehsug ^ 9.0 _ 63.2 __ average 1991-2020 _____________________85.5 _ Polar Gael 9.0 _110.0__ jonboy (36) ______________________________85.0 _ Matt Stoke 8.9 _ 59.2 __ average 1994-2023 ______________________84.0 _ dancerwithwings 8.8 _ 74.0 __ Reef (37) _________________________________83.0 _ SummerShower 8.8 _ 89.0 __ daniel* (55) ______________________________78.0 _ Jeff C 8.6 _111.0__ summer 18 ( 8 ) __________________________77.0 _ Neil N 8.5 _ 64.8 __ average 1981-2010 ______________________77.0 _ Godber 1 8.5 _ 90.0 __ Bluehedgehog074 (18) ___________________75.0 _ J 10 8.5 _130.0__ summer8906 (30) ________________________ 74.0 _ Reef 8.4 _ 77.0 __ Godber 1 (47) _____________________________70.0 _ virtualsphere 8.1 _ 78.0 __ Jeff C (11) _________________________________ 70.0 _ The_PIT 8.1 _133.0__ I Remember Atlantic252 (17) _____________ 67.0 _ Weather 26 8.0 _ 70.0 __ The_PIT (35) _____________________________ 8.0 _ --- --- __ Kentish Man (53) ________________________ 8.0 _ 58.4 __ average all data _________________________ 64.8 _ average 1981-2010 7.9 _120.0_ B87 ( 2 ) __________________________________ 63.2 _ average 1991-2020 7.9 _ 96.5 __ Thomas Green ( 5 ) ______________________ 60.1 _ Bobd29 7.8 _ 83.0 __ SummerShower (13) ____________________ 59.2 _ average 1994-2023 7.8 _ 77.0 __ Neil N (25) _______________________________ 58.4 _ average all data 7.6 _131.8__ Kirkcaldy Weather (39) __________________ 53.0 _ summer blizzard 7.5 _100.0__ Leo97t (16) ______________________________ 45.0 _ stewfox 7.4 _ 40.0 __ shillitocettwo ( 4 ) _______________________ 40.0 _ shillitocettwo 7.2 _112.0__ chilly milly (15) __________________________ 7.1 _153.0__ Met. (27) _________________________________ ==================================================== As of 19:30 1st ___ 56 on time CET and 50 on time EWP forecasts plus 3 late (so far) _ totals 59, 53 <<< Late entries are welcome to end of 3rd of April. >>>

That 8.2 is rounded up from 8.15 (actually total is 244.3, divided by 30 it's only 8.148, but I suspect they have a formula based on mean max and mean min so it's likely a few third decimals above 8.150 to justify rounding up not down. It is so close to the dividing line that any value today below 8.1 could result in an end value of 8.1; minimum looks to be only about 3 C and it did not warm up all that much (10-11), so don't be shocked if it drops to 8.1 as mean could be as low as 7 today. The EWP is currently just over 105 mm and not much is expected to hit the grid today. Our working estimate of 106 mm looks okay for now. 106.0 mm would rank 22nd but in any revisions on 5th, 110 mm would rank 14th, as there are a cluster of values 107-109.

37.2 C at Northolt around July 22nd.

I will amend my earlier forecast to 11.5 C, 115.7 mm. (note to J10, my earlier forecast is edited out of post) -- going for second warmest April now. FYI, GFS total precip to 14 April (taking off 5 expected to fall in rest of march), looks to be at least 80 mm for a grid average ... I see a similar outcome for CET to what Derecho posted earlier. A more settled second half seems possible so I won't pump up the EWP too high but you could see how it could take a run at 2012, but then it would probably cool off in last third which I don't foresee to be in the cards. Top 25 March - April averages (and eventual spring averages, ranks) are: Rank ___ YEAR ____ MAR _ APR ___ AVG _______ (MAY) __ spring ___ rank 1. ______ 2011 ____ 6.8 _ 11.9 ____ 9.35________12.2 ____ 10.3 ___ 2 2. ______ 2007 ____ 7.3 _ 11.3 ____ 9.3 ________ 11.9 ____ 10.2 ___ 4 3. ______ 1961 ____ 8.2 _ 10.0 ____ 9.1 ________ 11.0 _____ 9.7 ___15 4. ______ 1957 ____ 9.2 __ 8.9 ____ 9.05________10.3 _____ 9.5 ___28 5. ______ 1945 ____ 7.9 _ 10.1 ____ 9.0 ________ 12.2 ____ 10.1 ___ 7 6. ______ 2014 ____ 7.7 _ 10.3 ____ 9.0 ________ 12.2 ____ 10.1 ___ 5 7. ______ 2017 ____ 8.8 __ 9.0 ____ 8.9 ________ 13.3 ____ 10.3 ___ 1 8. ______ 1893 ____ 7.2 _ 10.3 ____ 8.75________13.1 ____ 10.2 ___ 3 9. ______ 1734 ____ 8.1 __ 9.3 ____ 8.7 ________ 11.1 _____ 9.5 ___27 10.______ 1997 ____ 8.4 __ 9.0 ____ 8.7 ________ 11.5 _____ 9.6 ___20 11.______ 1779 ____ 7.9 __ 9.4 ____ 8.65________11.9 _____ 9.8 ___14 12.______ 1948 ____ 8.3 __ 9.0 ____ 8.65________11.4 _____ 9.6 ___23 13.______ 2020 ____ 6.8 _ 10.5 ____ 8.65________12.5 _____ 9.9 ___ 8 14.______ 1794 ____ 7.0 _ 10.2 ____ 8.6 ________ 11.3 _____ 9.5 ___29 15.______ 2009 ____ 7.1 _ 10.1 ____ 8.6 ________ 12.1 _____ 9.8 ___13 16.______ 2022 ____ 8.0 __ 9.2 ____ 8.6 ________ 13.1 ____ 10.1 ___ 6 17.______ 2003 ____ 7.5 __ 9.6 ____ 8.55________12.0 _____ 9.7 ___16 18.______ 2019 ____ 7.9 __ 9.2 ____ 8.55________11.2 _____ 9.4 ___32 19.______ 1943 ____ 6.5 _ 10.5 ____ 8.5 ________ 11.8 _____ 9.6 ___22 20.______ 2002 ____ 7.6 __ 9.3 ____ 8.45________11.8 _____ 9.6 ___24 21.______ 1999 ____ 7.3 __ 9.5 ____ 8.4 ________ 12.9 _____ 9.9 ___10 22.______ 1938 ____ 9.1 __ 7.6 ____ 8.35________10.7 _____ 9.2 ___56 23.______ 1959 ____ 7.3 __ 9.4 ____ 8.35________12.8 _____ 9.8 ___12 24.______ 1830 ____ 7.7 __ 8.9 ____ 8.3 _________12.0 _____ 9.6 ___25 25.______ 1874 ____ 6.7 __ 9.8 ____ 8.25________10.0 _____ 8.8 ___91 not top 25 above, but finished top 26 spring average CETs at 9.6 + xx _______ 1992 _____ 7.5 __ 8.7 ____ 8.1 _______ 13.6 ____ 9.9 ____ 9 xx _______ 1952 _____ 6.6 __ 9.6 ____ 8.1 _______ 13.4 ____ 9.9 ____11 xx _______ 1868 _____ 6.8 __ 8.7 ____ 7.75_______13.5 ____ 9.7 ____17 xx _______ 1990 _____8.3 __ 8.0 ____ 8.15 _______12.6 ____ 9.6 ____18 xx _______ 1822 _____7.8 __ 8.3 ____ 8.05_______12.7 ____ 9.6 ____19 xx _______ 1811 _____7.1 __ 8.9 ____ 8.0 _______ 12.8 ____ 9.6 ____21 xx _______ 1998 _____7.8 __ 7.7 ____ 7.75_______13.1 ____ 9.6 ____26 (just outside on either list) xx _______ 1723 _____ 7.5 __ 8.9 ____ 8.2 _______11.7 ____ 9.4 ____37 xx _______ 1831 _____7.2 __ 9.2 ____ 8.2 _______12.0 ____ 9.3 ____45 rest of top 45: 1775, 1933, 1798, 2023, 2018, 1912, 1960, 1761, 1815, 1848, 1841, 1686, 2004 generally these were around 7.5-8.0 C for Mar- Apr, lowest was 1848 (7.05, 13.9 May), 2018 was 7.45. _________________________________ (ranks are awarded to earlier years in cases of ties) (note, spring ranks and averages are taken from CET tables and are not "simple arithmetic" but MAR-APR averages are simple arithmetic from posted monthly values, ignoring any "average of 31-day and 30-day" issue and unknown rounding issues etc. ... I observed in a similar exercise last autumn that new CET seasonal averages are clearly not as simple as adding three posted values and dividing by three, as used to be the case in legacy two-decimal era, it could be a 91- or 92-day average now, and/or it could be derived from averages of mean max and mean min, etc).

It's probably good to talk about issues of general interest to forecast-makers in late stages, I would just discourage numerous posts about forecasts already made etc, but clearly it's of general interest to correlate April temperature and rainfall.

April has fewer 100 mm months than all others, just 16 out of 258 so far (and only 11 of 217 before 1983). The wettest April (2012) at 149.9 is also a little lower than may 1773 (151.8) and quite a bit lower than other months. So for the 16 cases where April did reach 100 mm, here are the CET values associated: 1. 2012 _ 149.9 ___ 7.3 2. 2000 _ 142.6 ___ 7.7 3. 1782 _ 139.0 ___ 5.2 4. 1818 _ 135.6 ___ 6.9 5. 1998 _ 130.9 ___ 7.7 6. 1829 _ 123.4 ___ 6.7 7. 1920 _ 116.5 ___ 8.2 8. 1882 _ 114.0 ___ 8.4 9. 1846 _ 112.0 ___ 7.8 10. 1966_ 111.4 ___ 7.2 11.1983 _ 110.7 ___ 6.8 12.1800 _ 103.2 ___ 9.3 13.1828 _ 102.8 ___ 8.3 14.1935 _ 101.6 ___ 8.2 15.1871 _ 100.4 ___ 8.7 16.2001 _ 100.0 ___ 7.7 (1961 and 1792 at 10.0 C were just below 100 mm but it's evident that wet Aprils are generally cool, especially in recent decades.)

EWP around 104 mm (94 mm to 27th, est 10 mm yesterday) and further additions 2-4 mm so our working estimate of 106 mm will remain valid for now. CET about 8.09 C, today looks like ending up 8.5, so would stay on 8.1; averages near 9 C for 30-31 would still only drift into 8.2 range.

Note: I added an alternate scoring report for 8.2 C, following original version. Top ten are considerably different, and a few alterations in ranges 29-35 and 47-51; a few adjusted best combined ranks too.

We'll probably see 8.1 as running mean tomorrow's report as today looked close to 5.5 C. The 8.2 we're now at is actually 8.15 rounded up so it could even be a very weak 8.1 like 8.05. So while it does look at bit warmer Friday to Sunday, lows are going to remain close to 4 or 5, so even if each day averaged 9, an 8.05 for 28 days only rises to 8.14. So while I would agree 8.2 is equally likely to 8.1, I don't see 8.3 unless it gets to around 14-15 C daytimes on the weekend.

If it was 8.2, you would be second in CET as Methuselah entered before you, but you would be solo "best combined" ...

Preliminary Contest Results including best combined _ based on 8.1 C and 106 mm _ now appears on 1st April ...

There were a few exceptionally cold days in April 1966 around 13th to 17th, I don't know any details of snowfall that occurred but CET daily records were broken. Later on it turned quite warm for a few days at end of April and into early may and one max record was set.

Shil, scroll back to my previous post yesterday, a successive drop Feb to Apr has happened just once, in 1790. Otherwise, only a handful of Aprils colder than February. But I don't see how it can happen now to get march colder than Feb, even equal looks dubious. Quite a few Aprils have been colder than preceding march.

April is rarely colder than (or equal to) its preceding February, the only cases are shown below (with their March values) ... YEAR __ FEB _ MAR _ APR ___ range of values Feb-Apr 1702 __ 6.7 _ 5.8 _ 5.8 __________ 0.9 (7th closest set) (1713 _ 5.5 _ 4.5 _ 5.5) __________ 1.0 (t8 closest set) 1739 __ 6.8 _ 5.8 _ 6.7 __________ 1.0 (t8 closest set) (1743 _ 5.4 _ 5.3 _ 5.4) _______ 0.1 (closest to all three values same) 1790 __ 6.6 _ 6.4 _ 6.1 _________ 0.5 (2nd closest set, only one to include two decreases) 1809 __ 5.7 _ 6.0 _ 5.2 __________ 0.8 (6th closest set) (1837 _ 4.7 _ 2.3 _ 4.7) ________________ 2.4 1903 __ 7.1 _ 7.1 _ 6.4 __________0.7 (t-4 closest set) These also contain the two closest sets of Feb-Mar-Apr values by total range, cases that are also close (all within 1.0) but with APR above FEB are 1849 __ 5.7 _ 6.1 _ 6.4 _________ 0.7 (t-4 closest set) 1918 __ 6.5 _ 5.7 _ 6.7 __________ 1.0 (t8 closest set) 1990 __ 7.3 _ 8.3 _ 8.0 __________ 1.0 (t8 closest set) 1998 __ 7.2 _ 7.8 _ 7.7 _________ 0.6 (3rd closest set) These two lists then supply the full set of eleven three-month cases all within 1.0 C. All but one of the eight April-colder-or-equal cases joined that list.