Roger J Smith

No CET update available today, would say it could be 5.2 C after a 6 C average yesterday.

Don, if the GFS is anywhere close to accurate on trends, we will be nowhere near 7 C by 23rd, in fact we could be at or below 6.0, it looks relatively cool almost every day other than a few milder days around 15-18. If CET is 6.0 C on 23rd, even a warm 12 C last week would leave the outcome near 7.8, so it would need to turn near-record warm to avoid finishing lower. EWP is around 19 mm to today, looks to add about 40 mm so a near average 60 mm by 23rd.

You have perhaps noticed that the CET did not update today, no report for 5th on site; I estimate it at around 4.7 or 4.8 C now with yesterday probably a little above 7 C. Today won't move off that very far as the mins were lower and possibly below -1, the max likely 11 or 12. Keeping an eye on Feb data just in case any revisions creep in, none detected so far.

Table value of 151.1 mm for February will only result in slight changes to scoring tables (average errors will be adjusted, points are not going to change). Revisions to Dec 2023 (now 161.5 and Jan 2024 97.0 have added 0.6 to winter EWP total, now at 409.6 mm, and 2023 total, now at 1194.0 mm; each one edges closer to a value just above them in tables but no change in ranks. Tables earlier in thread requiring edits will be adjusted.

Combined scoring report CET and EWP (winter 2023-2024) For a few forecasters only entering CET, "combined" rank is CET rank only and appears in a second column. The number beside forecaster name indicates number of contests entered. This only appears if they entered 1 or 2. Ranking in table is based on average of CET and EWP contest ranks (fourth col). Note only points totals are compared, and CET points can be a lot higher than EWP points for 1/3 entrants (as part of points total based on averages). RANK __ CET_EWP___ avg ___ FORECASTER _________________CET only _ FORECASTER _ 01 _____05 _ 01 ____ 03.0 __ noname_weather _ 02 _____03 _ 09 ____ 06.0 __ Feb1991blizzard _ 03 _____11 _ 08 ____ 09.5 __ Don ___________________________ 09 __ Typhoon John _ 04 _____01 _ 19 ____ 10.0 __ I remember Atlantic252 _ 05 _____06 _ 15 ____ 10.5 __ chilly milly _ 06 _____10 _ 13 ____ 11.5 __ snowray _ 07 _____t17 _07 ____ 12.0 __ Frigid _t08 _____07 _ 21 ____ 14.0 __ dancerwithwings _t08 _____16 _ 12 ____ 14.0 __ WYorksWeather _t10 _____08 _ 22 ____ 15.0 __ Reef _t10 _____27 _ 03 ____ 15.0 __ summer18 _ 12 _____21 _ 11 ____ 16.0 __ February1978 _ 13 _____33 _ 04 ____ 18.5 __ J 10 _ 14 _____15 _ 23 ____ 19.0 __Mr Maunder _t15 _____04 _ 38 ____ 21.0 __ rwtwm _t15 _____28 _ 14 ____ 21.0 __ Metwatch _t17 _____26 _ 20 ____ 23.0 __ methuselah _t17 _____41 _ 05 ____ 23.0 __ Weather26 _________________ 22 __ Summer Sun _ 19 _____13 _ 34 ____ 23.5 __ davehsug _ 20 _____20 _ 31 ____ 25.5 __ moorlander (2) _ 21 _____23 _ 35 ____ 29.0 __ SteveB _t22 _____14 _ 45 ____ 29.5 __ SLEETY (1) _t22 _____30 _ 29 ____ 29.5 __ ScottD (2) _ 24 _____36 _ 27 ____ 31.5 __ The PIT _t25 _____12 _ 53 ____ 32.5 __ summer shower ___________ 32 __ Froze were the days (1) _t25 _____49 _ 16 ____ 32.5 __ stewfox _ 27 _____56 _ 10 ____ 33.0 __ DR(S)NO _ 28 _____40 _ 28 ____ 34.0 __ summer blizzard _ 29 _____45 _ 24 ____ 34.5 __ virtualsphere _ 30 _____54 _ 17 ____ 35.5 __ Emmett Garland _ 31 _____31 _ 42 ____ 36.5 __ summer8906 (2) _t32 _____02 _ 72 ____ 37.0 __ syed2878 _t32 ____t17 _ 57 ____ 37.0 __ Weather Observer _t32 _____72 _ 02 ____ 37.0 __ Jeff C _ 35 _____24 _ 52 ____ 38.0 __ Matt Stoke (1) _t36 _____38 _ 40 ____ 39.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (2) _t36 _____39 _ 39 ____ 39.0 __ Somerset girl _t38 _____29 _ 51 ____ 40.0 __ jmp223 (1) _t38 _____47 _ 33 ____ 40.0 __ Roger J Smith _t40 _____63 _ 18 ____ 40.5 ___jonboy _t40_____75 _ 06 ____ 40.5 __ godber1 _ 42 _____60 _ 25 ____ 42.5 __ Polar Gael_____________________ 42 __ Mark Bayley _ 43 _____50 _ 37 ____ 43.5 __ Midlands Ice Age _ 44 _____25 _ 64 ____ 44.5 __ shillitocettwo _ 45 _____46 _ 44 ____ 45.0 __ weatherforducks (2) _ 46 _____19 _ 73 ____ 46.0 __ Wade (1) _ 47 _____35 _ 58 ____ 46.5 __ Rob79812010 (1) _ 48 _____53 _ 43 ____ 48.0 __ seaside60 _ 49 _____66 _ 32 ____ 49.0 __ Mulzy _t50 _____43 _ 56 ____ 49.5 __ summer of 95 (1) _t50 _____t51_ 48 ____ 49.5 __ Bobd29 _ 52 _____37 _ 63 ____ 50.0 __ snowblind (1) _t53 _____34 _ 69 ____ 51.5 __ Norrance (2) _t53 _____62 _ 41 ____ 51.5 __ daniel* _ 55 _____54 _ 50 ____ 52.0 __ Leo97t _ 56 _____79 _ 26 ____ 52.5 __ KirkcaldyWeather (2) _t57 _____59 _ 47 ____ 53.0 __ Stationary Front _t57 _____76 _ 30 ____ 53.0 __ Let It Snow! (1) _ 59 _____48 _ 60 ____ 54.0 __ EastLancsRain _t60 _____44 _ 66 ____ 55.0 __ Climate Man (1) ________________ 61 __ damianslaw _t60 _____t51_ 59 ____ 55.0 __ Earthshine (2) _t60 _____64 _ 46 ____ 55.0 __ Tillys (1) _t60 _____65 _ 55 ____ 55.0 __ Shaunado (2) _ 64 _____77 _ 36 ____ 56.5 __ prolongedSnowLover (now "It never snows in Windsor") (2) _ 65 _____67 _ 49 ____ 58.0 __ John88b (2) _ 66 _____57 _ 61 ____ 59.0 __ harveyslugger (1) _ 67 _____68 _54 ____ 61.0 __ Wold Topper (1) _ 68 _____58 _t67____ 62.5 __ catbrainz (1) _ 69 _____73 _62 ____ 67.5 __ Alexis J9 (1) _t70 _____69 _t67 ____68.0 __ gazse9 (1) ______________________ 70 __ Kentish Man _t70 _____71 _65 ____ 68.0 __ sukayuonsensnow (1) _ 72 _____74 _ 70 ____ 72.0 __ Neil N (2) _ 73 _____78 _ 71 ____ 74.5 __ baddie (1) (79 forecasters are ranked for CET, 73 for EWP and combined)

Final EWP scoring report (note: missed mo. error is consensus + 5 in italics _ it is 81.1 mm for Feb ... in contest year, a maximum of five missed mo's are acceptable before ranking discontinued) Note _ ranks are also "winter 2023-24" ranks and will be preserved as such in next update. Updated scoring for EWP DEC 2023 - FEB 2024 __ Annual and Winter Seasonal _ based on 151.1 mm _ Ranks ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Feb _TOTAL _______ Feb _ Avg now_(Jan)_fcst (rank) _ FORECASTER __________EWP scoring (pts) __error__ avg 3mo (Ranks, now and (after Jan) _01 _ 02 ___ 82.0 (19) __ noname_weather _____ 6.76__ 24.41 _____ 69.1 __ 36.20 mm _ 3 _ (1) _02 _ 05 ___ 85.0 (15) __ Jeff C ( 8 ) ______________ 7.48 __ 23.39 ____ 66.1 __ 41.53 mm _ 8_ (9) _03 _ 13 ___122.0 (04) __ summer18 ____________9.46 __ 23.22 _____29.1 __ 35.73 mm _ 2 _ (18.) _04 _ 01 ___ 75.0 (31) __ J 10 ____________________ 4.84__ 22.63 _____ 76.1 __ 40.07 mm _ 6 _ (3) _05 _ 10 ___ 88.0 (13) __ Weather26 ____________ 7.84 __ 22.13 _____ 63.1 __ 46.87 mm_ 16 _ (17) _06 _ 07 ___ 82.0 (20) __ godber 1 _______________6.66 __ 22.00 _____ 69.1 __ 39.87 mm _ 5 _ (4) (6.6) _(4.7)_ 75.0 (28) ____1994-2023 average ___ 5.14 __ 21.33 _____76.1 __ 44.50 mm _12.2_(8.9) _07 _ 22 ___130.0 (02)__ Frigid ___________________9.82 __ 20.93 _____21.1 __ 29.87 mm _ 1_ (t10) _08 _ 03 ___ 70.0 (35) __ Don ____________________ 3.83 __ 20.92 _____ 81.1 __ 40.53 mm _ 7 _(2) _09 _ 06 ___ 78.0 (27) __ Feb1991blizzard _______ 5.32 __ 20.86 _____ 73.1 __ 41.87 mm _ 9_ (6) _10 _ 09 ___ 80.0 (24) __ DR(S)NO ( 43 ) __________6.10 __ 20.78 _____ 71.1 __ 46.53 mm_ 15 _ (t10) _11 _ 19 ___ 94.0 (08) __ February1978 __________8.74 __ 20.67 _____ 57.1 __ 43.53 mm_ 11 _ (14) (11.4)( 5.4)__72.4 (33.4) __1991-2020 average __4.31 __20.09 _____ 78.7 __ 46.47 mm_ 14.9 _ (19.1) _12 _ 04 ___ 60.0 (40) __ WYorksWeather _______ 2.92 __ 19.58 _____ 91.1 __ 47.93 mm _ 17 _ (7) _13 _ 08 ___ 73.0 (32) __ snowray _______________ 4.42 __ 19.54 _____ 78.1 __ 44.37 mm _ 12 _ (8.) _14 _ 28 ___105.0 (06) __Metwatch ______________9.10 __ 19.14 _____ 46.1 __ 45.20 mm_ 13_ (29) _15 _ 26 ___ 92.0 (10) __ chilly milly ______________8.46 __ 18.85 _____59.1 __ 45.87 mm_ 14_ (19) _16 _ 32 ___166.0 (01) __ stewfox ______________10.00 __ 18.79 _____14.9 __ 39.47 mm_ 4 _ (t43) _17 _ 25 ___ 91.0 (12) __ Emmett Garland ________8.02 __ 18.49 _____ 60.1 __ 51.20 mm_ 23 _ (t33) _18 _ 20 ___ 83.0 (18) __ jonboy __________________6.94 __ 18.22 _____ 68.1 __ 53.40 mm_ t26 _ (31) (18.6)( 8.7)__ 66.5 (37) ___1981-2010 average ___3.48 __ 18.34 _____ 84.6 __ 50.90 mm _22.8_ (9.9) _19 _ 30 ___ 92.0 (09)__I remember Atlantic252 __8.56 __18.12 _____ 59.1 __ 48.73 mm_ 18_ (27) _20 _ 12 ___ 65.0 (38) __ methuselah _____________3.29 __ 17.47 _____ 86.1 __ 54.07 mm _ 28 _ (16) _21 _ 24 ___ 80.0 (21) __ dancerwithwings ________6.40 __ 17.16 _____ 71.1 __ 58.20 mm_ 36 _ (t43) (21.9)(22.4) _75.0 (28) ____ Consensus___________ 5.14 __ 16.22 _____ 76.1 __ 55.20 mm_30.5_(29) _22 _ 18 ___ 72.0 (34) __ Reef ____________________ 4.05 __ 16.37 _____ 79.1 __ 54.07 mm_ 29 _ (22) _23 _ 37 ___ 92.0 (11) __Mr Maunder ____________ 8.36 __ 16.17 _____ 59.1 __ 56.53 mm_ 33 _ (t50) _24 _ 11 ___ 52.0 (48) __ virtualsphere ___________ 1.48 __ 15.72 _____ 99.1 __ 50.07 mm _ 22 _ (5) _25 _ 34 ___ 84.0 (17) __ Polar Gael ______________ 7.12 __ 15.32 _____ 67.1 __ 55.60 mm _ 31 _ (39) (25.9)(19.9)_65.5 (37.7) __average of all data ____ 3.34 __ 14.63 _____ 85.6 __ 57.80 mm_ 34.8 _ (27.8) _26 _ 49 ___100.8 (06) __ KirkcaldyWeather ______8.92 ___14.22 _____50.3 __ 49.73 mm _19 _ (38) _27 _ 16 ___ 50.0 (50) __ The PIT _________________ 1.12 __ 14.05 _____101.1 __ 61.53 mm_t48_ (t23) _28 _ 21 ___ 59.0 (44) ___ summer blizzard ______ 2.28 __ 13,46 _____ 92.1 __ 61.87 mm_ 51 _ (t33) _29 _ 35 ___ 79.0 (26) __ ScottD __________________ 5.50 __ 13.42 _____ 72.1 __ 52.73 mm _ 25_ (25) _30 _ 14 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ Let It Snow! _______________ --- __ 13.18 _____ (81.1)__ 49.87 mm_ t20_ (t10) _31_ 15 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ moorlander _______________ --- __ 13.13 _____(81.1)___ 51.87 mm_ 24 _ (15) _32 _ 29 ___ 60.0 (41) __ Mulzy (L1-13) ____________2.82 __ 12.84 _____91.1 __ 61.20 mm_ t46 _ (32) _33 _ 59 ___125.8 (03)__ Roger J Smith ___________ 9.64 __ 12.62 _____25.3 __ 54.27 mm_ 29 _ (63) _34 _ 39 ___ 75.0 (30) __ davehsug _______________ 4.94 __ 12.30 _____ 76.1 __ 60.53 mm_ 43 _ (t47) _35 _ 52 ___ 86.0 (14) __ SteveB __________________ 7.66 __ 12.18 _____ 65.1 __ 64.53 mm_ 58 _ (t58.) _36 _ 17 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ prolongedSnowLover _____ --- __ 12.30 _____(81.1)__ 49.87 mm_t20_ (t10) _37_ 36 ___ 73.0 (33) __ Midlands Ice Age _________4.32 __ 12.23 _____ 78.1 __ 59.53 mm_ 41_(40) _38 _ 27 ___ 51.0 (49) __ rwtwm ___________________1.30 __ 11.56 _____100.1 __ 62.20 mm_ 52 _ (26) _39 _ 57 __ 85.0 (16) __ Somerset girl _____________ 7.40 __ 11.18 _____ 66.1 __ 64.87 mm_ 59 _ (t58.) _40 _ 23 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ Addicks Fan 1981 __________ --- __ 11.03 _____(81.1) __ 53.40 mm _t26_ (20) _41 _ 41 ___ 65.0 (39) __ daniel* ___________________ 3.29 ___ 9.82 _____ 86.1 __ 66.53 mm_ 60 _ (53) _42 _ 42 ___ 66.5 (37) __summer8906 ______________3.48 ___ 9.88 _____ 84.6 __ 58.53 mm_ 37 _ (30) _43 _ 38 ___ 56.0 (45) __ seaside60 ________________ 2.02 ___ 9.63 _____ 95.1 __ 63.87 mm _t54 _ (37) _44 _ 56 __ 80.0 (25) __ weatherforducks __________5.70 ___ 9.56 _____ 71.1 __ 58.87 mm_ 38 _ (t47) _45 _(---) __121.0 (05) __ SLEETY ___________________ 9.28 ___ 9.28 ______30.1 __ 43.20 mm_ 10_ (---) _46 _ 31 ___ --- --- (---) __ Tillys ________________________ --- ___ 9.14 ____ (81.1) __53.87 mm _ 28 _ (21) _47 _ 55 ___ 75.0 (29) __ Stationary Front ( 51 ) _____5.04 ___ 8.95 _____ 76.1 __ 68.87 mm_ 61 _ (60) _48 _ 45 ___ 59.6 (42) __ Bobd29 ____________________2.56 ___ 8.36 _____ 91.5 __ 69.33 mm _65 _ (31) _49 _ 33 ___ --- --- (---) __ John88b ____________________ --- ___ 8.29 _____ (81.1) __ 61.53 mm_ t48 _ (t43) _50 _ 63 ___ 80.0 (23) __ Leo97t _____________________6.20 ___ 7.81 _____ 71.1 __ 73.20 mm _ 67 _ (65) _51 _ 40 ___ --- --- (--- __ jmp223 ______________________ --- ___ 7.08 _____ (81.1) __ 56.20 mm _32 _ (28 ) _52 _(---) __ 80.0 (22) __ Matt Stoke ________________ 6.30 ___ 6.30 _____ 71.1 __ 56.87 mm_ 34 _ (---) _53 _ 43 ___ 40.0 (56) __ summer shower ___________0.00 ___ 6.25 _____111.1 __ 78.13 mm_ 70 _ (57) _54 _ 44 ___ --- --- (---) __ Wold Topper ( ---) __________ -- -- ___ 6.18 _____(81.1) __ 54.87 mm _ 30_ (t23) _55 _ 64 ___ 75.0 (28) __ Shaunado _________________ 5.14 ___ 5.64 _____ 76.1 __ 68.77 mm_ 64 _ (61) _56 _ 46 ___ --- --- (---)__ summer of 95 ______________ -- -- ___ 5.60 _____(81.1) __59.07 mm_ 40 _ (36) _57 _ 50 ___ 45.0 (53) __ Weather Observer ________ 0.58 ___ 5.58 _____106.1 __ 75.87 mm _ 69 _ (55) _58 _ 47 ___ --- --- (---) __ Rob79812010 ______________ -- -- ___ 5.56 _____(81.1) __ 58.87 mm _ 39 _ (35) _59 _ 48 ___ --- --- (---) __ Earthshine _________________ -- -- ___ 5.45 _____(81.1) __ 66.53 mm _ 62 _ (56) _60 _ 51 ___ --- --- (---) __EastLancsRain ______________ -- -- ___ 4.88 _____(81.1) __ 60.73 mm_ 44_(41) _61 _ 53 ___ --- --- (---) __harveyslugger ______________ -- -- ___ 4.34 _____(81.1) __ 61.53 mm_t49_(t43) _62 _ 54 ___ --- --- (---) __ Alexis J9 ____________________ -- -- ___ 3.99 _____(81.1) __ 60.87 mm_ 45_(42) _63 _(---) __ 67.0 (36) __ snowblind __________________ 3.67 ___ 3.67 _____ 84.1 __ 61.20 mm _ t46_ (---) _64 _ 61 __ 49.0 (51) __shillitocettwo ________________0.94 ___ 3.34 _____102.1 __ 82.40 mm _71 _ (64) _65 _ 58 __ --- --- (---) __sukayuonsensnow __________ -- -- ___ 3.30 _____ (81.1) __ 63.20 mm_ 53 _ (49) _66 _ 60 __ --- --- (---) __ Climate Man ________________ -- -- ___ 2.90 _____ (81.1) __ 63.87 mm_t54_ (t50) t67 _ 62 __ --- --- (--) ___gazse9 ( -- ) __________________ -- -- ___ 2.28 _____ (81.1) __ 63.87 mm_t54_ (t50) t67 _(---) __ 59.0 (43) __ catbrainz ___________________ 2.28 ___ 2.28 _____ 92.1 __ 63.87 mm_ t54_ (---) _69 _ 65 __ 55.0 (47) __ Norrance ___________________ 1.74 ___ 2.04 _____ 96.1 __ 75.53 mm_ 68 _ (62) _70 _ 67 __ 55.0 (46) __ Neil N ______________________ 1.84 ___ 1.84 _____ 96.1 __ 85.87 mm_ 72 _ (66) _71 _(---) __ 48.3 (52) __ baddie ______________________0.76 ___ 0.76 _____102.8 __ 67.43 mm_ 63_ (---) _72 _ 66 __ 40.0 (55) __ syed2878 ___________________ 0.30 ___ 0.49 _____111.1 __ 93.20 mm_ 73 _ (67) _73 _(---) __ 40.0 (54) __ Wade _______________________ 0.40 ___ 0.40 _____111.1 __ 86.20 mm_ 66 _ (---) note: Ranks for normals and consensus are in decimal form, indicating where they are located relative to integer ranks of contest entrants. Log of results (Jan report, for cross-reference to above) _01 _ 08 ___100.0 (07) __ J 10 ( 54 ) __________________ 9.12_8.67__17.79 ____2.8_41.3__22.05 mm _ 3_ (8.) _02 _ 04 ___ 90.0 (13) __ noname_weather ( 47 ) ____ 8.22_9.43__17.65 ___ 7.2_32.3__19.75 mm _ 1_ (4) _03 _ 03 ___ 88.0 (17) __ Don ( 41 ) __________________ 7.47_9.62__17.09 ___ 9.2_31.3__20.25 mm _ 2 _(3) _04 _ 11 ___103.6 (10) __ WYorksWeather ( 30 ) _____ 8.56_8.10__16.66 ___ 6.4_46.3__26.35 mm _ 7_ (11) (4.7) _(17.6)_ 94.8 (5.2) ___ 1994-2023 average _____ 9.33_6.86__16.19 ___ 2.4_55.0__28.70 mm _9.1_(17.6) _05 _ 14 ___ 90.0 (11) __ Jeff C ( 8 ) ___________________8.38_7.53 __15.91 ___ 7.2_51.3__29.25 mm _ 9_(t14) (5.4)(19.1) __94.2 (5.8) ___1991-2020 average _______9.23_6.55__15.78____ 3.0_57.7__30.35 mm_ 9.3_ (19.1) _06 _ 09 ____ 87.0 (19) __ Feb1991blizzard ( 37 ) ____ 7.06_8.48__ 15.54___10.2_42.3__26.25 mm _ 6_ (9) _07 _ 06 ___ 84.0 (23) __ godber 1 (L1-12) ____________6.20^9.14__15.34 ___13.2_37.3__25.25 mm _ 4_ (t5) _08 _ 07 ___ 82.0 (24) __ snowray ( 24 ) ______________ 6.26_8.86__15.12___ 15.2_39.8__27.50 mm _ 8_ (7) (8.7)(22.4)__ 93.0 (7.5)____1981-2010 average ______ 8.96_5.90__14.86 ___ 4.2_63.9__34.05 mm _9.9_ (22.4) _09 _ 20 ___ 90.0 (12) __ DR(S)NO ( 43 ) ______________ 8.30_6.38__14.68 ___ 7.2_61.3__34.25 mm_t10_ (20) _10 _ 30 ___ 96.0 (02) __ Weather26 ( 9 ) _____________ 9.92_4.37__14.29 ___ 1.2_76.3__38.75 mm_ 17_ (30) _11 _ 01 ___123.0 (37) __ virtualsphere ( 20 ) ________ 4.24_10.00_14.24 ___ 25.8_25.3__25.55 mm _ 5 _(1) _12 _ 27 ___100.0 (06) __ methuselah (12.5) _________ 9.20_4.98__14.18 ___ 2.8_73.3__38.05 mm _16_ (t27) _13 _ 28 ___102.0 (08) __ summer18 ( 21 ) ___________ 8.88_4.88__13.76 ___ 4.8_73.3__39.05 mm_ 18_ (t27) _14 _ 19 ___ 86.0 (20) __ Let It Snow! (L1-7) ___________6.60^6.58__13.18 ___11.2_57.3__34.25 mm_t10_ (19) _15 _ 24 ___ 88.0 (16) __ moorlander ( 34 ) ___________7.55_5.58__13.13____ 9.2_65.3__37.25 mm_ 15_ (24) _16 _ 36 ___ 95.0 (04) __ The PIT ( 15 ) ________________9.52_3.41__12.93 ____2.2_81.3__41.75 mm_t23_ (t34) _17 _ 05 ___ 66.0 (44) __ prolongedSnowLover ( 50 )__3.06_9.24__12.30 ___ 31.2_37.3__34.25 mm_t10_ (t5) _18 _ 29 ___106.0 (15) __ Reef ( 39 ) __________________ 7.76_4.56__12.32____ 8.8_74.3__41.55 mm_ 22_ (29) _19 _ 12 ___ 71.0 (38) __ February1978 ( 52 ) __________4.02_7.91__11.93___ 26.2_47.3__36.75 mm_ 14_ (12) (19.9)(26.5)_ 81.6 (24.4)__average of all data (CET, EWP)_6.20_5.09_11.29___ 15.6_72.2__43.70 mm_27.8_(26.5) _20 _ 43 ___ 99.0 (03) __ jonboy (L1-2) _________________9.38^1.90 _11.28 ____ 1.8_ 90.3__46.05 mm_ 31_ (43) _21 _ 40 ___ 91.0 (9) ___ summer blizzard ( 27 ) _______8.71_2.47__11.18 ___ 6.2_87.3__46.75 mm_t33_ (40) _22 _ 02 ___ 55.0 (55) __ Frigid ( 38 ) __________________ 1.30_9.81__11.11 ____42.2_26.3__34.25 mm_t10_ (2) (22.4)(27)___ 81.0 (25) __ Consensus_________________ 6.10_4.98__11.08 ___ 16.2_73.3__44.75 mm_29.0_(t27) _23 _ 15 ___125.0 (41) __Addicks Fan 1981 ( 29 ) _____ 3.60_7.43__11.03____27.8_51.3__39.55 mm _ 20_ (t14) _24 _ 49 ___ 96.0 (01) __ dancerwithwings ( 3 ) ________10.00_0.76__10.76 ___ 1.2_102.3__51.75 mm_t43_(49) _25 _ 33 ___ 84.0 (22) __ Emmett Garland ( 36 ) _______6.58_3.89__10.47 ___ 13.2_80.3__46.75 mm_t33_ (t32) _26 _ 10 ___ 62.0 (50) __ chilly milly ( 4 ) _______________2.10_8.29__10.39 ___35.2_43.3__39.25 mm_ 19_ (10) _27 _ 22 ___ 74.0 (35) __ rwtwm (L1-9) ________________ 4.28^5.98__10.26 ___ 23.2_63.3__43.25 mm_ 26_ (22) _28 _ 25 ___ 74.0 (34) __ Metwatch ( 46 ) ______________ 4.66_5.38__10.04 ___ 23.2_66.3__ 44.75 mm_ 29_ (25) _29 _ 26 ___ 76.0 (31) __ Mulzy (L1-13) ________________ 4.84^5.18__10.02 ___ 21.2_71.3__46.25 mm_ 32_ (26) _30 _ 13 ___135.0 (52) __ I remember Atlantic252( 2 ) _ 1.84_7.72__ 9.56 ____37.8_49.3__43.55 mm_ 27_ (13) _31 _ --- ___ 95.0 (05) __ Tillys ( L1-1 ) __________________ 9.14^ -- --_ 9.14 _____ 2.2_78.3__ 40.25 mm _21_ (---) _32 _ 38 ___ 80.0 (26) __ stewfox ( 16 ) ________________ 5.94_2.85__8.79 ___ 17.2_86.3__51.75 mm_t43_(t38.) _33 _ 34 ___ 75.0 (32) __ John88b (L1-3) _______________4.68^3.61__8.29 ___ 22.2_81.3__51.75 mm_t43_(t34) _34 _ 23 ___ 62.3 (48) __ Polar Gael ( 18 ) _____________ 2.42_5.78__ 8.20 ___ 34.9_64.8__49.85 mm _39_(23) _35 _ --- ___105.0 (14) __ ScottD ( 6 ) ___________________7.92 _ -- --_ 7.92 ____ 7.8_78.3__ 43.05 mm _ 25_ (---) _36_ 18 ___ 53.0 (56) __ Midlands Ice Age ( 48 ) _______1.14_6.77__7.91 ___ 44.2_56.3__50.25 mm_ 40_(18.) _37 _ 44 ___ 81.0 (25) __Mr Maunder ( 33 ) ___________ 6.10_1.71 __ 7.81 __ 16.2_94.3__55.25 mm_t50_(44) _38 _ 16 ___ 52.0 (58) __ seaside60 (L1-10) ___________ 0.58^7.03^_7.61 ____45.2_51.3__48.25 mm _ 37_(t14) _39 _ 17 ___ 45.0 (61) __ davehsug ( 45 ) _____________ 0.40_6.96__ 7.36 ____ 52.2_53.3__52.75 mm_t47_(17) _40 _ --- ___ 88.0 (18) __ jmp223 (L1-5) _______________ 7.08^_-- --__ 7.08 ____ 9.2_78.3__ 43.75 mm _ 28_( --- ) _41 _ 39 ___ 70.0 (40) __ daniel* ( 42 ) ________________ 3.78_2.75__6.53 ____27.2_86.3__ 56.75 mm_ 53_(t38.) _42 _ --- ___110.0 (21) __summer8906 ( 13 ) __________ 6.40 _ -- --_ 6.40 ____12.8_78.3__45.55 mm_ 30_ (---) _43 _ 50 ___115.0 (28) __ summer shower ( 12 ) ______ 5.68_0.57__ 6.25 ___ 17.8_105.3_61.55 mm_ 57_(50) _44 _ 21 ___ --- --- (---) __ Wold Topper ( ---) ___________ -- -- _6.18__ 6.18 ___ 21.2_62.3__41.75 mm _t23_ (21) _45 _ 31 ___ 59.0 (53) __ Bobd29 ( 26 ) _______________ 1.62_4.18 __5.80 ___38.2_78.3__58.25 mm _54_(31) _46 _ --- ___115.0 (29) __ summer of 95 ( 35 ) ________ 5.60_ -- -- __ 5.60 ____17.8_78.3__48.05 mm_ 36_(---) _47 _ 35 ___ 60.0 (51) __ Earthshine ( 17 ) ____________ 1.94_3.51__ 5.45 ___37.2_81.3__59.25 mm _56_(t34) _48 _ --- ___ 80.0 (27) ___Rob79812010 (L1-6) ________ 5.56 _-- --_ 5.52 ____17.2_78.3__47.75 mm _35_(---) _49 _ --- ___ 76.6 (30) __KirkcaldyWeather ( 11 ) ______ 5.30 _-- --_ 5.30 ____20.6_78.3__49.45 mm _38_(---) _50 _ 42 ___ 65.0 (46) __ Weather Observer ( 44 ) ____ 2.82_2.18__5.00 ___ 32.2_89.3__58.75 mm _55_(t41) _51 _ --- ___120.0 (33) __EastLancsRain ( 1 ) __________ 4.88 _-- --__ 4.88 ____22.8_78.3__ 50.55 mm_ 41_( --- ) _52 _ 47 ___ 67.0 (42) __ SteveB ( 10 ) ________________ 3.38_1.14__4.52 ____30.2_98.3__64.25 mm_t58_(47) _53 _ (---) __ 72.0 (36) __ harveyslugger ( 23 ) ________ 4.34_ ---- __ 4.34 ___ 25.2_ 78.3__51.75 mm_t43_(---) _54 _ 32 ___ --- --- (---) __ Alexis J9 ( --- ) _______________ -- -- _3.99__3.99 ___ 21.2 _80.3__50.75 mm_ 42_(t32) _55 _ 46 ___ 64.0 (47) __ Stationary Front ( 51 ) _____ 2.58_1.33__3.91 ___ 33.2_97.3__65.25 mm_ 60_(46) _56 _ --- ___ 70.0 (39) __ weatherforducks ( 25 ) _____ 3.86_ -- --__ 3.86 ____27.2_78.3__52.75 mm_t47_(---) _57_ 37 ___ 53.0 (57) __ Somerset girl (L1-11) _______ 0.76^3.04__3.80 ___ 44.2_84.3__64.25 mm_t58_(37) _58 _ --- ___ 67.0 (43) __sukayuonsensnow ( 32 ) ____ 3.30 _-- --_ 3.30 ____ 30.2_78.3__54.25 mm_ 49_(---) _59 _ 45 ___ 56.3 (54) __ Roger J Smith ( 5 ) __________ 1.46_1.52__2.98 ___ 40.9_96.6__68.75 mm_ 63_(45) _60 _ --- ____ 65.0 (45) __ Climate Man ( 14 ) _________ 2.90_ --- __ 2.90 ___ 32.2_78.3__55.25 mm_t50_(---) _61 _ 51 ___132.0 (49) __ shillitocettwo (L1-14) _______2.02^0.38__2.40 ___ 34.8_110.3_ 72.55 mm _64_(51) _62 _ 41 ___ --- --- (--) ___gazse9 ( -- ) ________________ -- --_ 2.28 __ 2.28 ___ 21.2_89.3__55.25 mm_t50_(t41) _63 _ 48 ___ 50.0 (59) __ Leo97t ( 26 ) _______________ 0.66_0.95__1.61 ___ 47.2_101.3_74.25 mm_ 65_(48.) _64 _ --- ___ 45.3 (60) __ Shaunado ( 6 ) _____________ 0.50_--- ---_0.50 ____51.9_78.3__65.10 mm_ 61_(---) _65 _ --- ___ 45.0 (62) __ Norrance ( 53 ) ____________ 0.30 _ -- --_0.30 ____52.2_78.3__65.25 mm_ 62_(---) _66 _ 52 ___ 40.0 (63) __ syed2878 ( 19 ) ____________0.00_0.19__0.19 ____57.2_111.3_84.25 mm_ 67_(52) _67 _ 53 ___ -- --- ( --- ) __ Neil N ( --- ) _______________---- 0.00 __ 0.00 ___ 21.2_140.3__80.75 mm_ 66_(53) 10.0 _ 95.1 __ Polar Gael (19) __________________129.0 __ DR(S)NO 9.3 _ --- --- __ BlueSkies_do_I_see (10) _________110.0 __ B87^^ 8.4 _ 53.8 __ WYorksWeather (23) _____________104.0 __ virtualsphere 8.3 _ 94.0 __ Emmett Garland (37) _____________ 95.1 __ Polar Gael 8.2 _ 82.0 __ Methuselah ( 2 ) __________________ 95.0 __ syed2878 8.2 _ 94.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (38) ____________ 95.0 __ Stationary Front 8.1 _ --- --- __ Typhoon John ( 9 ) _______________ 95.0 __ Mr Maunder 8.0 _ 60.0 __ The PIT (22) _______________________95.0 __ SLEETY 7.9 _ 43.0 __ Summer Shower (24) _____________94.0 __ Emmett Garland 7.9 _ --- --- __ Mark Bayley (25) _________________94.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 7.9 _ 95.0 __ Stationary Front (28) _____________ 94.0 __ SteveB^ 7.9 _ 72.0 __ Don (41) __________________________ 91.6 __ Weather26 7.8 _ 81.0 __ feb1991blizzard (36) ______________90.0 __ Let It Snow! 7.8 _ 87.5 __ snowray (39) ______________________90.0 __ weatherforducks 7.8 _ 54.0 __ sunny_vale (L1-5) _________________90.0 __ Jeff C^ 7.7 _ 77.0 __ dancerwithwings (13) _____________89.0 __ Midlands Ice Age 7.7 _ --- --- __ Summer Sun (29) _________________88.0 __ summer18 7.7 _ 95.0 __ Mr Maunder (32) _________________ 88.0 __ stewfox 7.6 _ 77.0 __ Reef (18) __________________________88.0 __ seaside60^ 7.6 _ 85.0 __ J 10 (43) ___________________________87.5 __ snowray 7.5 _ 78.0 __ summer8906 ( 5 ) _________________85.0 __ J 10 7.5 _ --- --- __ Damianslaw (40) _________________ 82.0 __ Methuselah 7.4 _ 78.8 __ Roger J Smith (26) _________________82.0 __ rwtwm 7.4 _ 88.0 __ stewfox (L1-6) _____________________81.0 __ feb1991blizzard 7.3 _ 78.0 __ I Remember Atlantic252 (16) _____ 81.0 __ Wade^^ 7.3 _ 74.0 __ summer blizzard (15) _____________78.8 __ Roger J Smith 7.3 _ 91.6 __ Weather26 (35) ___________________ 78.0 __ summer8906 7.2 _ 78.0 __ consensus _________________________ 78.0 __ consensus 7.2 _ 90.0 __ Let It Snow! ( 3 ) ___________________78.0 __ I Remember Atlantic252 7.2 _ 72.0 __ Frigid (21) _________________________ 77.0 __ dancerwithwings 7.2 _ 77.0 __ Mulzy (30) _________________________ 77.0 __ Reef 7.2 _ 89.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (33) ______________77.0 __ Mulzy 7.1 _ 66.0 __ shillitocettwo (11) _________________ 76.5 __ Metwatch 7.1 _ 67.0 __ Weather Observer (31) ____________74.0 __ summer blizzard 7.1 _ 88.0 __ seaside60 (L1-2) ___________________72.5 __ bobd 7.0 _ 90.0 __ weatherforducks (27) _____________ 72.0 __ Frigid 6.9 _ 72.5 __ bobd29 ( 1 ) _______________________ 72.0 __ Don 6.9 _129.0__ DR(S)NO (12) _____________________ 71.5 __ 1981-2010 6.9 _110.0__ B87 (L2-1) ________________________ 70.0 __ jonboy 6.8 _ 95.0 __ syed2878 (17) _____________________70.0 __ davehsug^ 6.8 _ 68.0 __ February1978 (44) ________________ 68.0 __ February1978 6.7 _ 65.4 __ mean 1991-2020 __________________ 67.3 __ 1994-2023 6.7 _ 67.3 __ mean 1994-2023 __________________67.0 __ Weather Observer 6.7 _ 88.0 __ summer18 ( 6 ) ____________________66.0 __ shillitocettwo 6.7 _ 60.0 __ Leo97t ( 4 ) ________________________65.4 __ 1991-2020 6.7 _ 94.0 __ SteveB (L1-4) ______________________63.0 __ Godber 1 6.6 _ 71.5 __ mean 1981-2010 __________________ 61.6___1766-2023 6.6 _104.0__ virtualsphere ( 7 ) _________________60.0 __ Leo97t 6.6 _ 82.0 __ rwtwm (20) _______________________ 60.0 __ The PIT 6.5 _ 76.5 __ Metwatch (47) ____________________ 60.0 __ daniel* 6.4 _ 70.0 __ jonboy (14) _______________________ 55.0 __ Neil N 6.3 _ 63.0 __ Godber 1 (46) ____________________ 54.0 __ sunny_vale^ 6.3 _ 70.0 __ davehsug (L1-3) _________________ 53.8 __ WYorksWeather 6.1 _ 55.0 __ Neil N ( 8 ) ________________________ 43.0 __ Summer Shower 6.0 _ 81.0 __ Wade (L2-2) _______________________ (six CET only) 5.4 _ 60.0 __ daniel* (45) _______________________ 5.4 _ 61.6 __ mean 1766-2023 ________________ 4.9 _ 95.0 __ SLEETY (34) _______________________ 4.5 _ 90.0 __ Jeff C ( L1-1 ) ______________________ 4.1 _ --- --- __ Kentish Man (42) _________________ _________________________ 47 on time CET and 41 on time EWP forecasts, both added 8 late forecasts (so far) total 55 CET, 49 EWP

EWP opened with about 15 mm on first two days but will only rise slowly according to GFS, largely dry away from southwest England for next ten days, eventually about 25 mm additional by 19th to get a total of about 40 mm.

Also, 2023-2024 was second wettest autumn - winter six month interval ... Rank ___ YEARS ______ autumn __ winter _____ TOTAL _______ ranks (aut, win) _01 _____ 2000-2001 __ 502.7 _____ 331.9 _____ 834.6 mm ___________ 1 ___20 _02 _____ 2023-2024 __ 395.7 _____ 409.6 _____ 805.3 mm ___________12 ___ 6 _03 _____ 2019-2020 __ 410.9 _____ 373.4 _____ 784.3 mm ___________ 5 ___13 _04 _____ 2013-2014 __ 298.6 _____ 455.5 _____ 754.1 mm ___________86 ___ 1 _05 _____ 1960-1961 __ 438.6 _____ 309.9 _____ 748.5 mm ___________ 3 ___38 _06 _____ 1876-1877 __ 324.3 _____ 418.3 _____ 742.6 mm ___________49 ___ 4 _07 _____ 1976-1977 __ 396.8 _____ 340.0 _____ 736.8 mm ___________11 ___16 _08 _____ 1852-1853 __ 455.8 _____ 267.4 _____ 723.2 mm ___________ 2 ___ 83 _09 _____ 1935-1936 __ 424.1 _____ 290.0 _____ 714.1 mm ___________ 4 ___ 50 _10 _____ 1994-1995 __ 297.5 _____ 415.6 _____ 713.1 mm ___________90 ___ 5 _11 _____ 1882-1883 __ 369.8 _____ 331.7 _____ 701.5 mm ___________25 ___21 _12 _____ 1872-1873 __ 394.3 _____ 298.7 _____ 693.0 mm ___________13 ___42 _13 _____ 1773-1774 __ 378.9 _____ 309.2 _____ 688.1 mm ___________18 ___39 _14 _____ 1993-1994 __ 290.0 _____ 388.3 _____ 678.3 mm ___________98 ___ 7 _15 _____ 1903-1904 __ 391.1 _____ 283.6 _____ 674.7 mm ___________14 ___57 _16 _____ 1929-1930 __ 343.8 _____ 330.2 _____ 674.0 mm ___________38 ___24 _17 _____ 2012-2013 __ 356.3 _____ 316.5 _____ 672.8 mm ___________31 ___35 _18 _____ 2020-2021 __ 288.1 _____ 384.1 _____ 672.2 mm ___________101 __ 8 _19 _____ 1768-1769 __ 398.7 _____ 259.4 _____ 658.1 mm ___________ 9 ___ 90 _20 _____ 1924-1925 __ 320.1 _____ 330.4 _____ 650.5 mm ___________54 ___24 _21 _____ 1914-1915 __ 226.9 _____ 423.0 _____ 649.9 mm __________194 ___ 2 _22 _____ 1965-1966 __ 286.4 _____ 363.0 _____ 649.4 mm __________102 ___14 _23 _____ 1918-1919 __ 324.9 _____ 323.9 _____ 648.8 mm ___________48 ___29 _24 _____ 1880-1881 __ 379.1 _____ 268.2 _____ 647.3 mm ___________17 ___81 _25 _____ 1927-1928 __ 326.7 _____ 320.1 _____ 646.8 mm ___________47 ___31 _26 _____ 2002-2003 __ 361.2 _____ 277.5 _____ 638.7 mm ___________29 ___61 _27 _____ 1938-1939 __ 315.1 _____ 318.9 _____ 634.0 mm ___________60 ___33 _28 _____ 2015-2016 __ 257.8 _____ 375.4 _____ 633.2 mm __________ 143___10 _29 _____ 2006-2007 __ 301.9 _____ 327.8 _____ 629.7 mm ___________79 ___27 _30 _____ 1839-1840 __ 358.4 _____ 270.2 _____ 628.6 mm ___________30___t77 _31 _____ 1989-1990 __ 207.3 _____ 420.9 _____ 628.2 mm __________217___ 3 _32 _____ 1868-1869 __ 247.2 _____ 380.6 _____ 627.8 mm __________160___ 9 _33 _____ 1827-1828 __ 310.3 _____ 314.8 _____ 625.1 mm ___________65 ___36 _33 _____ 1836-1837 __ 362.0 _____ 261.6 _____ 623.6 mm ___________28 ___88 _34 _____ 1998-1999 __ 345.8 _____ 276.0 _____ 621.8 mm ___________36 ___64 _34 _____ 1770-1771 __ 402.4 _____ 218.4 _____ 620.8 mm ____________6___145 _35 _____ 1954-1955 __ 378.1 _____ 239.1 _____ 617.2 mm ___________19___117 _36 _____ 1974-1975 __ 377.9 _____ 236.4 _____ 614.3 mm ___________20___120 (top ten autumn data not in above list because other season dry) ... _xx ______ 1772-1773 __ 400.6 _____ 183.4 _____ 584.0 mm ____________ 7 ___205 _xx ______ 1875-1876 __ 399.1 _____ 192.3 _____ 591.4 mm ____________ 8 ___193 _xx ______ 1799-1800 __ 396.8 _____ 157.0 _____ 553.8 mm ___________10 ___231 __________________________ Note: ranks for EWP run 1 to 259. median 130.

EWP tracker ends its soggy journey at 150.3 mm, provisionally fourth wettest February behind only 2020, 1833, and 1923. Will make no changes to preliminary scoring posted a few days ago, until final value is posted on 5th. 2nd CET and 4th EWP would be the most extreme combined ranking for any month at the warm end, but August 1912 was wettest and coldest. Winter 2023-2024 on this provisional value has a total now of 409.0 mm, ranking 6th behind only 2013-2014, 1914-1915, 1989-1990, 1876-1877, and 1994-1995. Rest of top ten below 2023-2024 now are 1993-1994, 2020-2021, 1868-1869, and 2015-2016. This winter almost doubled last winter (216.3 mm) and was well ahead of 2021-2022 (245.7 mm). 2019-2020 ranks 13th (now) with 1915-1916 and 1959-1960 in 12th and 11th. So we have seen five of top thirteen wet winters in past eleven.

March CET 1981-2010 averages and 1772-2023 extremes all data shown now converted to v2.0 _ 1909 lost two record low daily means (-2.9 4th and tied -2,.8 5th) and both of those were increased by almost a full degree in v2.0. 1875 lost a record high to 2014 on 7th with just a small drop from 10.9 to 10.7. On 18th, 1853 maintained a record low despite rising to -1.1 C, the value attained by 2018 in CET legacy, but it also warmed 0,.1 to -1.0, so continued to be a very close second lowest for that date. 1903 lost a record high to 1927 on 22nd, and 1886 replaced tied 1852, 1945 on 23rd. Otherwise, most of the records are the same for years, and within 0.2 for values in most cases. (v2.0 only began to change legacy values in 1853). --------- (daily record means, 1772-2023) -- (1981-2010 avg) ------ (extreme running means) --- DATE ___ MAX ____________ MIN ___________ CET date, cum ______ Running CET extreme values 01 Mar ... 10.9 (1878) ... ... -3.7 (2018.)... ... ... ... 5.0 ... ... 5.0 ... ... ... 10.9 (1878.) ... ...-3.7 (2018.) 02 Mar ... 11.1 (1777) ... ... -3.1 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 10.2 (1878) ... ... -3.0 (2018.) 03 Mar ... 11.0 (1777) ... ... -3.8 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.9 ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 10.3 (1801) ... ... -2.0 (1965) 04 Mar ... 12.3 (1859) ... ... -2.8 (1845) ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.8 ... ... ... 10.0 (1801,59) ...-1.9 (1965) 05 Mar ... 10.9 (1834) ... ... -2.8 (1786) ... ... ... ... 5.4 ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 10.0 (1834) ... ... -1.5 (1947) 06 Mar ... 12.1 (1989) ... ... -4.7 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.3 ... ... 5.2 ... ... .... 9.9 (1859) ... ... -1.7 (1786) 07 Mar ... 10.8 (2014) ... ... -3.3 (1947) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 5.4 ... ... .... 9.7 (1834) ... ... -1.7 (1786, 1947) 08 Mar ... 12.1 (2000) ... ... -3.1 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.4 ... ... 5.5 ... ... .... 9.7 (1834) ... ... -1.9 (1786) 09 Mar ... 12.5 (1948) ... ... -2.6 (1917) ... ... ... ... 6.3 ... ... 5.6 ... ... .... 9.8 (1834) ... ... -1.8 (1786) 10 Mar ... 11.5 (1957) ... ... -2.1 (1883) ... ... ... ... 6.8 ... ... 5.7 ... ... .... 9.7 (1834) ... ... -1.6 (1786) 11 Mar ... 12.6 (1957) ... ... -1.9 (1847) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 5.8 ... ... .... 9.5 (1834) ... ... -1.1 (1786) 12 Mar ... 13.4 (1957) ... ... -2.4 (1785) ... ... ... ... 6.0 ... ... 5.8 ... ... .... 9.4 (1834) ... ... -0.6 (1786, 1947) 13 Mar ... 12.8 (1991) ... ... -6.5 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.3 ... ... 5.8 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... -0.4 (1786, 1947) 14 Mar ... 11.5 (1805) ... ... -3.7 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 5.9 ... ... .... 9.1 (1957) ... ... -0.4 (1845) 15 Mar ... 12.0 (1884) ... ... -1.5 (1845,1867) ..... 7.0 ... ... 6.0 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... -0.5 (1845) 16 Mar ... 13.2 (2004) ... ... -3.0 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... 6.0 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... -0.6 (1845) 17 Mar ... 13.1 (2005) ... ... -2.2 (1845) ... ... ... ... 7.5 ... ... 6.1 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957)^...... -0.7 (1845) 18 Mar ... 14.1 (1990) ... ... -1.1 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.1 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.6 (1845) 19 Mar ... 11.8 (1822) ... ... -0.9 (1814) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.5 (1845) 20 Mar ... 12.3 (1779) ... ... -1.6 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.6 (1845) 21 Mar ... 11.7 (1927,31,2002).-1.6 (1899) .... . .. 6.6 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... -0.4 (1845) 22 Mar ... 12.2 (1927) ... ... .-0.9 (1837) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... 6.3 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... -0.1 (1845) 23 Mar ... 12.4 (1886) ... ... .-0.8 (1837) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... 6.3 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... +0.2 (1845) 24 Mar ... 13.4 (1776) ... ... .-0.6 (1879) ... ... ... ... 7.4 ... ... 6.3 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... +0.4 (1845) 25 Mar ... 13.9 (1777) ... ... .-1.1 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.3 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +0.7 (1845) 26 Mar ... 14.6 (1777) ... ... .-0.3 (1879) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... +1.0 (1845) 27 Mar ... 14.8 (1777) ... ... -0.1 (1901) ... ... ... ...7.1 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +1.3 (1785, 1845) 28 Mar ... 12.6 (1822) ... ... -0.3 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... 6.5 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... +1.3 (1785) 29 Mar ... 13.4 (1813) ... ... -0.7 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... 6.6 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... +1.2 (1785) 30 Mar ... 15.2 (2017) ..... ... 0.0 (1799) ... ... ... ... 7.6 ... ... 6.6 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +1.2 (1785) 31 Mar ... 14.4 (2021) ... ... .-0.8 (1799) ... ... ... ... 8.0 ... ... 6.6 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +1.2 (1785)** ________________________________________________________________________ ^ 1961 had reached its highest point, 9.3 on the 17th. ** 1674 had a mean CET of 1.0 so was colder here and possibly on earlier dates in the month too. ________________________________________________________________________ 1991-2020 daily and running CET values 1 ____ 5.0 __ 5.0 _____ 6 ___ 6.1 __ 5.2 ______ 11 ___ 6.8 __ 5.9 ______ 16 ___ 7.8 __ 6.3 ______ 21 ___ 6.8 __ 6.4 ______ 26 ___ 7.2 __ 6.6 2 ____ 4.9 __ 5.0 _____ 7 ___ 6.6 __ 5.4 ______ 12 ___ 6.4 __ 5.9 ______ 17 ___ 7.7 __ 6.4 ______ 22 ___ 7.0 __ 6.5 ______ 27 ___ 7.0 __ 6.6 3 ____ 5.0 __ 5.0 _____ 8 ___ 6.7 __ 5.5 ______ 13 ___ 6.7 __ 6.0 ______ 18 ___ 6.9 __ 6.4 ______ 23 ___ 7.0 __ 6.5 ______ 28 ___ 7.4 __ 6.6 4 ____ 4.8 __ 4.9 _____ 9 ___ 6.7 __ 5.6 ______ 14 ___ 6.8 __ 6.1 ______ 19 ___ 6.7 __ 6.4 ______ 24 ___ 7.3 __ 6.5 ______ 29 ___ 7.4 __ 6.7 5 ____ 5.2 __ 5.0_____10 ___ 7.0 __ 5.8 ______ 15 ___ 7.5 __ 6.2 ______ 20 ___ 7.1 __ 6.4 ______ 25 ___ 7.5 __ 6.6 ______ 30 ___ 8.0 __ 6.7 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________31 ___ 8.4 __ 6.747 ____________________________________________________ _______________________________________________ _______________________________

Another factor that needs to be considered, as I understand it from various links in current discussion, in 1779 CET values are from a single location near London, albeit a London with very little heat island. Now it depends on specific synoptics but quite often London averages nowadays are 1-2 C above CET, not all of it due to urban effect. There would be cold months with s.e. wind flow turning out colder in 18th century London than 18th century central England too, 1779 would not likely be one. Also, CET in this period drops 0.2 for urban effects, so before that adjustment, 2024 was 8.0 not 7.8. If this was a month where the urban effect was not as great as average (clear skies and cold air masses have largest urban heat island effects, 2024 had little of that sort of weather) then it is another reason to say 1779 and 2024 are probably virtually tied. Now it could be that I missed some details about adjustments of London values to overlap with later grids of stations located further n and w. To the point in the previous post, a 31-day interval ending 20 and also 21 Feb averaged 8.3 so that is probably a real indicator of a potential February average of around 8.5 (both shorter and later being factors). It will not surprise this observer if we see an 8.5 February sooner or later. I also think march could go to 9.5 or even 10.0, 1957 was not piling on heat near the end and fell back from around 9.5. Just as a guess, I would expect CET record values by 2050 to be around 8.0 _ 8.5 _ 10.0 _ 12.5 _ 15.1 _ 18.5 _ 20.2 _ 20.0 _ 17.5 _ 14.5 _ 11.0 _ 9.6 ___ 11.8 annual you can see I believe 1833 and 2015 will hold on and the other ten will be broken. I would expect a 14.2 to 14.5 may and a 9.0 Dec in the next 25 years, not records but new second place values. If there is a net-weather in 2050 they can have a laugh at old RJS at that point. (I would be 101 and not likely caring).

The 1961-1990 average CET is 5.7. Oddly the two warmest years were 1961 (8.2) and 1990 (8.3). The 28 years in between had an average of only 5.5 C. The third highest was 1981 at 7.8.

1779 is apparently still on the couch ... a 7.5 (report) for 29 Feb leaves 2024 0.1 short at 7.8. ... (not a prediction, a report) ...

EWP tracker will finish near 148 mm, will wait for table value on 5th to determine winner (Frigid 130 mm, stewfox 166 mm).

Table of forecasts for March 2024 After spring cleaning, a new look for the table. EWP in order now in vertical drop down listing in col 2. CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (order of entry) _____EWP (^ late 1day __ ^^ late 2d) 10.0 _ 95.1 __ Polar Gael (19) __________________129.0 __ DR(S)NO 9.3 _ --- --- __ BlueSkies_do_I_see (10) _________110.0 __ B87^^ 8.4 _ 53.8 __ WYorksWeather (23) _____________104.0 __ virtualsphere 8.3 _ 94.0 __ Emmett Garland (37) _____________ 95.1 __ Polar Gael 8.2 _ 82.0 __ Methuselah ( 2 ) __________________ 95.0 __ syed2878 8.2 _ 94.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (38) ____________ 95.0 __ Stationary Front 8.1 _ --- --- __ Typhoon John ( 9 ) _______________ 95.0 __ Mr Maunder 8.0 _ 60.0 __ The PIT (22) _______________________95.0 __ SLEETY 7.9 _ 43.0 __ Summer Shower (24) _____________94.0 __ Emmett Garland 7.9 _ --- --- __ Mark Bayley (25) _________________94.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 7.9 _ 95.0 __ Stationary Front (28) _____________ 94.0 __ SteveB^ 7.9 _ 72.0 __ Don (41) __________________________ 91.6 __ Weather26 7.8 _ 81.0 __ feb1991blizzard (36) ______________90.0 __ Let It Snow! 7.8 _ 87.5 __ snowray (39) ______________________90.0 __ weatherforducks 7.8 _ 54.0 __ sunny_vale (L1-5) _________________90.0 __ Jeff C^ 7.7 _ 77.0 __ dancerwithwings (13) _____________89.0 __ Midlands Ice Age 7.7 _ --- --- __ Summer Sun (29) _________________88.0 __ summer18 7.7 _ 95.0 __ Mr Maunder (32) _________________ 88.0 __ stewfox 7.6 _ 77.0 __ Reef (18) __________________________88.0 __ seaside60^ 7.6 _ 85.0 __ J 10 (43) ___________________________87.5 __ snowray 7.5 _ 78.0 __ summer8906 ( 5 ) _________________85.0 __ J 10 7.5 _ --- --- __ Damianslaw (40) _________________ 82.0 __ Methuselah 7.4 _ 78.8 __ Roger J Smith (26) _________________82.0 __ rwtwm 7.4 _ 88.0 __ stewfox (L1-6) _____________________81.0 __ feb1991blizzard 7.3 _ 78.0 __ I Remember Atlantic252 (16) _____ 81.0 __ Wade^^ 7.3 _ 74.0 __ summer blizzard (15) _____________78.8 __ Roger J Smith 7.3 _ 91.6 __ Weather26 (35) ___________________ 78.0 __ summer8906 7.2 _ 78.0 __ consensus _________________________ 78.0 __ consensus 7.2 _ 90.0 __ Let It Snow! ( 3 ) ___________________78.0 __ I Remember Atlantic252 7.2 _ 72.0 __ Frigid (21) _________________________ 77.0 __ dancerwithwings 7.2 _ 77.0 __ Mulzy (30) _________________________ 77.0 __ Reef 7.2 _ 89.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (33) ______________77.0 __ Mulzy 7.1 _ 66.0 __ shillitocettwo (11) _________________ 76.5 __ Metwatch 7.1 _ 67.0 __ Weather Observer (31) ____________74.0 __ summer blizzard 7.1 _ 88.0 __ seaside60 (L1-2) ___________________72.5 __ bobd 7.0 _ 90.0 __ weatherforducks (27) _____________ 72.0 __ Frigid 6.9 _ 72.5 __ bobd29 ( 1 ) _______________________ 72.0 __ Don 6.9 _129.0__ DR(S)NO (12) _____________________ 71.5 __ 1981-2010 6.9 _110.0__ B87 (L2-1) ________________________ 70.0 __ jonboy 6.8 _ 95.0 __ syed2878 (17) _____________________70.0 __ davehsug^ 6.8 _ 68.0 __ February1978 (44) ________________ 68.0 __ February1978 6.7 _ 65.4 __ mean 1991-2020 __________________ 67.3 __ 1994-2023 6.7 _ 67.3 __ mean 1994-2023 __________________67.0 __ Weather Observer 6.7 _ 88.0 __ summer18 ( 6 ) ____________________66.0 __ shillitocettwo 6.7 _ 60.0 __ Leo97t ( 4 ) ________________________65.4 __ 1991-2020 6.7 _ 94.0 __ SteveB (L1-4) ______________________63.0 __ Godber 1 6.6 _ 71.5 __ mean 1981-2010 __________________ 61.6___1766-2023 6.6 _104.0__ virtualsphere ( 7 ) _________________60.0 __ Leo97t 6.6 _ 82.0 __ rwtwm (20) _______________________ 60.0 __ The PIT 6.5 _ 76.5 __ Metwatch (47) ____________________ 60.0 __ daniel* 6.4 _ 70.0 __ jonboy (14) _______________________ 55.0 __ Neil N 6.3 _ 63.0 __ Godber 1 (46) ____________________ 54.0 __ sunny_vale^ 6.3 _ 70.0 __ davehsug (L1-3) _________________ 53.8 __ WYorksWeather 6.1 _ 55.0 __ Neil N ( 8 ) ________________________ 43.0 __ Summer Shower 6.0 _ 81.0 __ Wade (L2-2) _______________________ (six CET only) 5.4 _ 60.0 __ daniel* (45) _______________________ 5.4 _ 61.6 __ mean 1766-2023 ________________ 4.9 _ 95.0 __ SLEETY (34) _______________________ 4.5 _ 90.0 __ Jeff C ( L1-1 ) ______________________ 4.1 _ --- --- __ Kentish Man (42) _________________ _________________________ 47 on time CET and 41 on time EWP forecasts, both added 8 late forecasts (so far) total 55 CET, 49 EWP Late forecasts will be added to end of 3 Mar, EWP forecast column will be placed in order after all forecasts are in.

7.4 CET and 78.8 EWP. A bit cold to start, higher values later, not a dry trend but could be close to average.

"In terms of where we're at, we're at 7.833C. The record is 7.871C." Just wondering, do you calculate by simple arithmetic of numbers in "mean CET" table or do you look at an overall average of CET max and min values? I came to the opinion that CET tables are based on some kind of calculation of (mean max + mean min) / 2 whereas anything I ever post about CET is done by the simple arithmetic method. I also wonder if they adjust for any rounded daily means (cases with an odd and even digit in play e.g. 7.0 and 1.3). What blunts that problem for CET is a system where they don't round all of these upwards, some are rounded downwards. They could cancel out.

"For crying out loud. I’ve tried to explain, to no avail, that in the past readings were taken just once a day, at 0900. Therefore the readings taken were the max and min over the past 24 hours, no attempt being made to allocate them to 2 x 12 hours, as that would be based on assumptions, not fact. Some sites still use this convention, so all must." So therefore you must believe that this 0900 reading of max goes back to previous calendar day in records (as one obvious example the super hot day 19th July 2022 was presumably recorded at 0900h 20 July although I believe it was already observed at the various sites at 2100h of 19th), and the min recorded at 0900h stays with same calendar day for min. But I believe that CET data (and possibly various stations on 0900 system) are at least reviewed by an observer at 2100 and if temps have been falling between 0900 and 2100 a new daily min can (and certainly should) be recorded. Let's see what happens on 29 Feb, I believe the min observed to 0900 on 29 Feb will be considerably higher than the min observed by 2100h because temps are likely to fall steadily during day and early evening of 29 Feb. What they note in tables as min for 29 Feb could answer this question. Also, I wonder if an actual stakeholder in CET can confirm what happens. If anyone with past success at having e-mails answered wants to give it a go ...

Perhaps the confusion about where they found -0.7 C for a daily in for 27 Feb can be explained by the supporting paper not explaining procedure, I suspect it is actually as follows: readings are taken at 9 a.m. and 9 p.m. of extremes, the lowest value to 0900h of date (in this case 27 Feb) begins at 9 p.m. the previous day (26 Feb) and the value is then checked at 9 p.m. (in case 27 Feb) for the unlikely possibility that a lower value has occurred after 9 a.m., which could happen if colder air arrived after 0900h. If not lower then the first of the two obs determines the daily min. The procedure for max is the opposite, a reading is taken at 9 p.m. which captures a max on most days, then the next one at 0900h following day captures overnight rises in temperature that are applied to the previous calendar day. Just from observing dates of low mins in real time, especially in warmer months with shorter nights, you would always see the lowest values on the day before they actually occurred if the min observation period was 0900h to 0900h, and not on the day that they did occur (around 0400 to 0600h on a summer morning and about 0700 or 0800 even in winter, more frequently than at 0900). In any case I think the daily mins are taken from a period that is staggered 12h (earlier) relative to the interval of the daily max.

Combined CET and EWP contest scoring for Feb 2024 _ based on 7.8 C (confirmed) and 150 mm _ ___ to be adjusted as final values are confirmed ... Ranks _ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (Order of entry) ___ combined ranks, order (top 25) 01 _ 55 _ 8.1 __ 40.0 _ syed2878 ( 25 ) _______________ 56 ___t24th best combined 02 _ 05 _ 7.4 _ 121.0 _ SLEETY ( 23 ) __________________06 ____ best combined 03 _ 09 _ 7.3 __ 92.0 _ IRememberAtlantic252 ( 2 ) ___12 ____ 5th best combined 04 _ 54 _ 7.3 __ 40.0 _ Wade ( 10 ) ____________________58 05 _ 22 _ 7.2 __ 80.0 _ matt stoke ( 22 ) _______________27 ___ 9th best combined 06 _ 03 _ 7.2 _ 125.8 _ Roger J Smith ( 51 ) ____________09 ___ 2nd best combined 07 _ 04 _ 7.1 _ 122.0 _ Summer18 ( 18 ) ______________ 11 ___ 4th best combined 08 _ 17 _ 7.0 __ 84.0 _ Polar Gael ( 8 ) _________________25 ___ 8th best combined 09 _ 01 _ 6.9 _ 166.0 _ stewfox ( 13 ) __________________ 10 ___3rd best combined 10 _ 49 _ 6.9 __ 51.0 _ rwtwm ( 24 ) ___________________ 59 11 _ 12 _ 6.8 __ 91.0 _ Emmett Garland (21) __________ 23 ___ 7th best combined 12 _ 36 _ 6.7 __ 67.0 _ snowblind ( 14 ) ________________48 ___t20th best combined 13 _ 40 _ 6.7 __ 60.0 _ WYorksWeather ( 33 ) __________53 ___ 23rd best combined 14 _ 53 _ 6.7 __ 45.0 _ Weather Observer ( 48 ) _______ 67 15 _ 02 _ 6.6 _ 130.0 _ Frigid ( 6 ) ______________________17 ___ 6th best combined 16 _ 51 _ 9.0 __ 49.0 _ Shillitocettwo ( 11 ) ____________ 67 17 _ 27 _ 6.5 __ 78.0 _ Feb1991Blizzard ( 44 ) _________ 44 ___t11th best combined 18 _ 32 _ 6.2 __ 73.0 _ snowray ( 4 ) ___________________ 50 ___22nd best combined 19 _ 14 _ 6.2 __ 86.0 _ Steve B ( 12 ) ___________________ 33 ___10th best combined 20 _ 38 _ 6.2 __ 65.0 _ methuselah ( 16 ) _______________58 21 _ 26 _ 6.2 __ 79.0 _ ScottD ( 17 ) ____________________ 47 ___t18th best combined 22 _ 23 _ 6.1 __ 80.0 _ Leo97t ( 27 ) ____________________ 45 ___t14th best combined 23 _ 33 _ 6.0 __ 73.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 34 ) __________56 ___t24th best combined 24 _ 34 _ 5.9 __ 72.0 _ Reef ( 32 ) _______________________58 25 _ 21 _ 5.9 __ 80.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 43, 2.5 ) _____46 ___t16th best combined 26 _ --- _ 5.8 __ --- --- _ Summer Sun ( 28 ) ______________ 27 _ 56 _ 5.8 __ 33.0 _ Summer Shower ( 42 ) __________83 28 _ 43 _ 5.7 __ 59.0 _ catbrainz ( 31 ) __________________71 29 _ 29 _ 5.7 __ 75.0 _ Stationary Front ( 46 ) __________ 58 30 _ 16 _ 5.7 __ 85.0 _ Somerset Girl ( 55 ) _____________ 46 ___t16th best combined 31 _ --- _ 5.7 __ --- --- _Mark Bayley ( 60 ) ________________ (28)(28)_5.7 __ 75.0 _ Consensus ________________________56 (t24) 32 _ 13 _ 5.6 __ 88.0 _ Weather26 ( 5 ) _________________ 45 ___t14th best combined 33 _ 11 _ 5.6 __ 92.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 36 ) ______________ 44 ___t11th best combined 34 _ 50 _ 5.5 __ 50.0 _ The PIT ( 20 ) ____________________84 35 _ 24 _ 5.5 __ 80.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 30 ) ___________________59 36 _ 25 _ 5.5 __ 80.0 _ weatherforducks (L1-1) _________ 61 37 _ 10 _ 5.4 __ 92.0 _ chilly milly ( 19 ) _________________47 ___t18th best combined 38 _ 37 _ 5.4 __ 66.5 _ summer8906 ( 37 ) ______________75 39 _ 06 _ 5.4 _ 105.0 _ Metwatch ( 53 ) _________________ 45 ___t13th best combined 40 _ 08 _ 5.3 __ 94.0 _ February1978 ( 57 ) _____________ 48 ___t20th best combined (41)(28)_ 5.2 _ 75.0 _ 1994-2023 average _______________69 41 _ 30 _ 5.2 _ 75.0 _ davehsug ( 53 ) ___________________ 71 42 _ 31 _ 5.2 _ 75.0 _ J10 ( 57 ) __________________________ 73 43 _ 44 _ 5.1 _ 59.0 _ summer blizzard ( 55 ) ____________87 (44)(34)_ 5.0 _ 72.4 _ 1991-2020 average _______________78 44 _ 47 _ 5.0 __ 55.0 _ Norrance ( 45 ) __________________ 91 45 _ --- _ 5.0 __ --- --- _ damianslaw ( 47 ) _______________ 46 _ 19 _ 4.9 __ 82.0 _ noname_weather ( 52 ) _________ 65 47 _ 35 _ 4.8 __ 70.0 _ Don ( 50 ) ________________________82 48 _ 42 _ 4.7 __ 59.6 _ Bobd29 ( 1 ) _____________________ 90 49 _ --- _ 4.7 __ --- --- _ Typhoon John ( 3 ) _______________ 50 _ 45 _ 4.7 __ 56.0 _ seaside60 ( 26 ) __________________95 51 _ 48 _ 4.6 __ 52.0 _ virtualsphere ( 15 ) ______________ 99 52 _ 28 _ 4.6 __ 75.0 _ Shaunado ( 41 ) __________________80 (53)(37)_ 4.4 __ 66.5 _ 1981-2010 average ______________90 53 _ 41 _ 4.4 __ 60.0 _ mulzy ( 38 ) ______________________ 94 54 _ 18 _ 4.0 __ 83.0 _ jonboy ( 29 ) ______________________72 (55)(38) _ 3.9 __65.5 _ average of all data _______________ 93 55 _ 39 _ 3.9 __ 65.0 _ daniel* ( 39 ) _____________________ 94 56 _ 46 _ 3.8 __ 55.0 _ Neil N ( 40 ) ______________________ 102 57 _ 52 _ 3.4 __ 48.3 _ baddie (using 2013) ( 7 ) _________ 109 58 _ --- _ 3.3 __ --- --- _ Kentish Man (49) _________________ 59 _ 15 _ 3.2 __ 85.0 _ Jeff C ( 9 ) _________________________ 74 60 _ 20 _ 2.8 __ 82.0 _ Godber 1 ( 59 ) ____________________80 61 _ 07 _ 2.3 _ 100.8 _ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 35 ) __________ 68 60 on time forecasts, and one late by one day, 61 total __ consensus (median) 5.7 ======================== EWP forecasts in order 166_stew .. 130_Frig .. 125.8_RJS .. 122_sum18 ... 121_SLE .. 105_Met .. 100.8_KW .. 94_Feb78 .. 92_IRem, cm, MrM .. 91_EG .. 88_wx26 .. 86_Ste .. 85_Jeff, sg .. 84_PG .. 83_jon .. 82_non, godb .. 80_dww, matt, leo, DR(S), ducks^ .. 79_ScottD .. 78_Feb91 .. 75_Shaun, SF, dave, J10 75.0_94-23 .. 73_snowray, MIA .. 72.4_91-20 .. 72_Reef .. 70_Don .. 67_snowblind .. 66.5_sum8906 .. 66.5_81-10 .. 65.5_alldata .. 65..meth, dan* .. 60_WYork, mul .. 59.6_bob .. 59_cat, sb .. 56_sea .. 55_NN, Norr .. 52_virt .. 51_rwtwm .. 50_PIT .. 49_Shil .. 48.3_bad ... 45_WxOb .. 40_Wade, syed .. 33_SumSh

EWP at about 140 mm now, will add 10-15 mm more by end of Feb to finish about 3rd or 4th overall. I have adjusted scoring table to 156 mm for an end result, a few scores changed and all but one average error gained another 8 mm from last table's 132 mm setting. (24/3 = 8, everyone in contest so far is given three errors, you get error of consensus + 5 mm if you don't play; you need to be in to get points however). It is not quite official yet but stewfox (166) will probably edge out Frigid (130) and those were the two highest forecasts so all other ranks are already set. I will be third although currently in second until we have a value over 146. I could probably post CET-EWP results today but not sure yet what rank Shillitocettwo will have for a 9.0 C punt that could be second or third, but possibly fourth to about twelfth depending on what final value is. Congrats to syed2878 who is sitting on a sure winner at 8.1 C. (third highest forecast was 7.4 C). This beats the feat of LG back in Dec 2015 when he went 9.0 for a (then CET legacy) 9.7 finish (it was since adjusted to 9.6 in v2.0). I looked back a while ago and recall that record Apr 2011 had one or two close forecasts as well, don't recall who but I think one or two were above the result. We had a larger group error in march 2013 than any other contest.

EWP not to be outdone is also going to have a go at a new record, 117 mm had fallen by 21st, looks to be over 130 mm now, and the Sunday low is going to release a deluge on the southwest; while it's going to be fairly dry apart from that, could see EWP over 150 mm and closing in on third place 1923 (152.7 mm) or even second place 1773 at 158.6 (2020 recently set the record of 169.5 mm). Full top ten can be seen in previous post about a page back now. Will adjust scoring again later, stewfox (166 mm) will move up to first place if and when we pass 148 mm. (Frigid next at 130 mm).

Yesterday's average of 9.6 raises the already reported weekly record by .01 to 10.67, and it creates an even higher 31-day average since 21 Jan was 7.9, raising that from 8.29 to 8.34.

Looking for a top ten Feb EWP now, I just edited scoring back a few days to an expected 132 mm and it could go even above 132, but top 15 now are as follows: _01 __ 169.5 _ 2020 _02 __ 158.6 _ 1833 _03 __ 152.7 _ 1923 _04 __ 143.6 _ 1950 _05t__ 143.2 _ 1977, 1990 _07 __ 142.1 _ 1937 _08 __ 136.7 _ 2014 _09 __ 132.0 _ 1916 _10 __ 131.7 _ 1900 _11 __ 130.0 _ 1848 _12 __ 129.6 _ 1966 _13 __ 129.1 _ 1768 _14 __ 124.2 _ 1925 _15 __ 123.5 _ 1915 (16th is 116 mm which is probably about where 2024 is already)

Feb 1779 is like that friend or relative who asks if they can couch surf while they look for work and years later they are still there.