SNOW-MAN2006

Very well done john, i love reading your entrys they are a great learning benifit for some whilst i read them to help build upon my own model interpretation. Thank-You SM06

I always have this problem as i love creating powerpoints which make everything look so much more offical. You can download microsoft powerpoint viewer here as i often make powerpoints that i would love you to see :lol: SM06

Below is my interpretation of the cold spell at present... if i feel anything needs changing to the forecast i will do so but for the mean time there is sufficient information for you to interpret snowfall from my point of view Will_it_snow_in.ppt SM06

Right, Signing off so someone else can forecast I will publishing my usual cold spell forecast tommorrow on here to help indentify areas that could see some snow, i need more runs to back up my view points. So good luck and see you all tommorrow SM06

Blizzards - Most likely you will see some snow at points Arrows- 3 degrees does ssupport snowfall however i wouldnt bet onm anything significant in ipswich (and charts are constantly changing ) SM06

Yeht did the same for me and i was like ???? Anyway yep you looking good, nice and far inland but i wouldnt bet on anything until much later in the week as temps look like topping 5 degress for Wednesday, Thursday so check back Guitar Nutter I am very unconfident of much snow in wiltshire as it is a bit to far south. Mabey 500m+ may see some lying snow but things can always change Stephen great forecast and specifies exactly what the charts are showing SM06

Could you please confirm where scunny is??? sprunehorpe? SM06

In my own opinion it is very unlikely as you are surrounded by a sea and salt doesnt mix with snow... if anything sleet but there is always a chance SM06

Very well im led to believe with a band of percipitation moving in from the west so you do have a fair chance 1) You have one big house most unlikely on your first floor but as you move onto your 200th floor you may see some sleety stuff Somerset.... not to sure however i am confident you will see some white stuff SM06

Like i say it is only a rough guide. With the last cold spell my forecast was quite successful so i will be producing an indepth analysis where you can select your region and it will give that area a 5 day forecast SM06

Just a few charts to post here.... But first i would like to highlight that this is a truely great run for snow lovers. During this period there is the potential for snow anywhere from (drawing a line northwards) bristol eastwards & Snowdonia. The charts reflect the major event of each day and there is a coloured UK map with some rough estimates of any snow amounts Wednesday On Wednesday there remains the risk of some light, snow/sleet showers down the eastern coasts. Especially for the Northeast areas. sleety towards the coastal areas these showers will be. Thursday Rain approaches from the west/South west but a continuation of those snow showers in the north east which are likely to be more sleety at midday to lower levels due to temperatures approaching 5 degrees. Friday This chart shows country wide snow which is looking light and if not showery. Temperatures at there lowest on Friday and snow is more likely to lower levels. These are rough guidelines (to give an accurate estimate 48 hours before is unlikely so please bear this in mind ) So there is a quick round up of the 12z run from the GFS havent seen other charts yet but GFS is really looking good tonight. SNOW-MAN2006

Precipitation.ppt SM06

current metcheck CET at 5.1 which is quite cool, i expect the cet to finish off at around this value after further watching the models.... SM06

Hi OP, Whether we get snow all depend on the synoptics. The last few years has seen a pattern change with High pressure situated further east and more low pressure dominance. Enless we get high pressure really far east to allow low pressure to get into europe then we see mild sw'lys so the thing to blame for no snow is that high pressure isnt far west enough to drag in easterly winds and it isnt to east enough to allow a northerly flow from northerly's (this is the trend and at times it varies) all we need is the right synoptics for snow.... SM06

Well mr.snowman just have a look at your areas ensembles (below is for tyne and wear): and as you can see there is a chance of -10 850ph to +9 850ph's so basically anything could happen but the mean ensemble run tells me temperatures hovering around the 7 degress mark.... SM06 :lol:

Hi, Here is the latest GFS run of the Breakdown during friday 0600 hours As we can see the east having quite a bit of AM snowfall with some very cold temperatures but already signs of rain in the west. 0900 hours Some sleet (green) or snow (pink) for most areas ahead of the low pressure system rolling in. 1200 hours Could potentially be a midday caous event with some wintriness for most areas... 1500 hours [attach ment=31452:Friday_15hrs_Temps.png] We can really see that low pressure working its way in throughout the day and temperatures slowly increasing from the SW with some quite strong winds from that pressure chart in the West. First signs of rain to lower levels throughout the period. 1800 hours Sleet for higher elevations but mostly rain at this point to lower levels as temperatures increase. So something to watch definately there.... and here on the ECM there is signs of a tempary easterly as low pressure dips into Germany before we see our return to unsettled conditions... I will also be releasing my interpretation of this cold spell on the winter discussion later for the week ahead so stay tuned to that or simply look at it on my blog :lol: SNOW-MAN2006

am sorry for my renewed CET prediction but i am having to increase my prediction further to 7.75 sorry ~(last update i swear ) SM06

Temperatures Temperature vary constantly. Temperatures range depending on Weather systems, Winbd direction and pooling of air. We have all learnt about the different weather systems and wind directions (where it is a linked in nicely) so temperature is a result of wind direction Snow will most likely fall in a sub-zero dewpoint where temperature remains below 4 degress. Chocolate melts at 30 degress Really boring subject to talk about temperature but all you need to know on it is what we have been learning about wind direction, poooling and weatgher systems SM06 On Sunday i will be looking at percipitation and how it links in with temperature in a bit more detail. Then i will be finishing of your learning experience the following sunday with the all important model intterpreation

So then your gudiance to me is for my forecasting to be warm all the time???? Never to forecast snow ???? Whilst i still remain studying chemistry and physics i will be very interested to learn about co2 etc. whilst my knowledge at current has led me to my views. If there where only one answer then everyone would believe in the GW effect and us as a direct result of it. Yet not everyone is convinced me being one of them. I know that my forecasts may be bias towards cold inwhich the reason why i numerously state in my predictions to discard any over ramping. I do not access any extra forecast information in my forecasts that arnt free so i look for trends. In my seasonal forecast i have put forward a colder view which wasnt uncommon amongst many other forecasters. And it is your choice to view my forecast is it not??? Infact i suggest that you click the ignore button if you constantly choose to be confrontational about my forecasting methods.... yours are perfect are they not??? QUOTE And perhaps you'll enlighten us all as to HOW the earth is emitting these quantities of CO2, and why now? The earth has done so before!!!! Ice core samples that have been taken from the arctic proof there has been large fluctuations in CO2 concentrations before, without the existance of humans. A general trend is for it to occur every 100,000 years inwhich it is doing now. We are to blame for a certain extent but i dont think we are the entire issue. Many thanks for your 'critisism' S.F. Look forwards to hearing your views SM06

First few words says 150 years which to me is not a reliable enough period. The sample i looked at was taken from ice core samples that indicate with rise in temperatures came a rise in co2 concentration and it showed we are in an upward trend sparked more than 10,000years ago where cars around then??? the earth is naturally emitting the large co2 emissions not us ! SM06

Hi, I have now changed from an unbeliever to a sceptic. In another thread (warmer world???) a very interesting article was put forward to me. It had some amazing information in it. One thing from it was a correlation graph which had shown me there was actually a correlation between CO2 amounts and temperatures (positive at that). However i was still unconvinced. There has been major fluctuations in CO2 amounts before which has then been followed by a rise in temperatures. CO2 levels have been rising for the past 50,000 years and are continuing to do so but are we at the end of this line yet? The CO2 concentration levels fluctuate every 100,000 years rising and falling sharply. In doing this the temperatures followed an exact same trek (fluctuations). So i had identified the trend but i then began to ask 'If CO2 concentrations have risen sharply before without humans could it not be coincidence that the industrial revlolution has fallen in line with the next CO2 fluctuation?' In my view i am still unclear. There has not been any solid evidence put before me in my continuation to investigate this subject. A solution was put forward (in gaurdian?) which was to send massive mirrors into space. It would take only 1% of the sun's coverage on earth to eradicate the GW effects. They would also send vaccums to clean the atmosphere. My next question was then 'Should we interfere with mother nature?' and again i couldnt answer. If we did interfere then could we not enter the next ice age because the wather wouldnt just return to average.... would it??? I think it is conclusive that we are contributing to the destruction of the planet however our contributions must be only 1% if it is going to take 1% of the suns rays to be taken away to halt the GW effect. So is it simple.... no! Our planet is in crisis point and we need to act sooner rather than later. Although i am still not a believer the truth is the weather is changing and something must be done to help the Human Race conquer climate change before it is to late!!! SNOW-MAN2006

In conjunction with the release of my February forecast i have risen my CET prediction to 5.0 ! 1st and 3rd thirds of the month will be mild with a cold-v.cold mid-month See my blog for the full forecast SM06

If I am going to get something i want it to be worth it as i got reasonably excited for some snow where i recieved little SM06

Well, in one word 'Disapointing'! Monday- Cold and Dry nothing Tuesday- Very light covering totaling around 3mm with 2 heavy snow showers and even more dissapointing with heavy wet snow later melting anything that was left soon turning toi rain! Wednesday- Dry with a few late hail showers Thursday- Was expecting a covering.... got nothing Severly not worth having!!!! SM06

Very interesting cevelopments begining to happen. Unstable conditions look soon to develop where i feel anything could happen. Although my monthly forecast isnt avliable until January 31st, i will release my usual early punt without analysis of the models. My C.E.t 4.3 degress SNOW-MAN2006