SNOW-MAN2006

Thanks John SNOW-MAN2006

very bizzare what happened last night. Was raining heavily until 8am then it snowed heavily for 5 hours leaving us with 3cm of snow, a slow thaw now, but still very cold! So i went from being very unhappy this morning to plesantly suprised this afternoon. SNOW-MAN2006

[attachment=71589:Winter_Forecast.docx] SM06

Hi I dont know if there is one of these open already but ive looked over the past 2 pages and cant indentify one. So if there is one open could someone please kindly put my post into there . It has been a while but i can now release my winter 2008/09 forecast. Feel free to critise or compliment. I am a strong believer that critism makes everyone better. Im going to regret saying that now lol. Im sure you will all be kind lol. Enjoy Winter_Forecast.docx SNOW-MAN2006

4.7 for me. Been a while but im back SM06

Two change there mind every week on the weather for xmas. Last week they where predicting a NE air flow with widespread snowfall. Now the total opposite. Total waste of time in my view until 2 weeks before. SNOW-MAN2006

Seaosnal outlook and Early Winter thoughts; [attachment=67895:Autumn_2...Forecast.docx] SNOW-MAN2006

My Prediction for August is 16.9 See my blog for the full forecast Thanks SNOW-MAN2006

Here is my august Forecast; [attachment=66537:August_F...ast_2008.docx] Sorry it is in Word 2007 SM06

I have to disagree there... CO2 is the warming gas that traps heat! how can this be logical? Yes they can us static to remove soot, but Coal is NOT the way forward. Fusion is possible, but requires large amounts of HEAT and ENERGY, so much so that it is pointless to do. The sun demonstraights the energy of fusion however unless we develop a cold way of fusing particles together then we will never use this method. In response to earlier opinions about storing hydrogen, they must have solved the problem seeming as Honda are producing 200 hyrdorgen fuelled cars over the next 3 years. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7456141.stm SNOW-MAN2006

Fossil Fuels; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel_power_plant "Subcritical fossil fuel power plants can achieve 36–38% efficiency. Supercritical designs have efficiencies in the low to mid 40% range" Hydrogen; www1.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/presidents_initiative.html "12 hydrogen fueling stations demonstrated 53–58% fuel cell efficiency" So Hydrogen would give more energy and be less polluting. SNOW-MAN2006

Sorry, i have been having BIG internet torubles, But i am past them now and am in the USA! Last night it was 100F at 6:00pm in the evening, i dread to think what it was during the day. As for my July forecast, it was produced before i left and was posted on [url="http://www.freechatandweather.com/page%204.htm"]freechatandweather[/url] but i didnt post it here for some reason! When i get back to the UK, i will be moving into the 21st Century and i will subsribe to NW-Extra! It's like ive entered a new era! Any way here it is, a "bit" late, and i will be updating it next week some time. So stay tuned as i havent dissapeared! July 2008 Forecast Well, my June forecast is going well I believe and I reckon that the final figure (CET) will be close to what I have forecast. July is expected to be another mixed month with times of warmth but higher than average rainfall! The GFS is now starting to show the beginnings of July in a reliable time frame. The situation being projected at this stage is for low pressure to assert itself, temporarily, to the west for a few days and high pressure to the east. This will force southerly winds upon the country and giving us the traditional heat wave, that lasts 2 or 3 days. This is always short lived and is concluded with a thundery show-down and I think by the 4th this will be exactly what will happen. This is backed up in the NAO as it turns positive indicating low pressure riding north over Greenland and high pressure building form the south. This progression isn’t KEY for hot weather however we may see warmer easterly winds from time to time giving warm conditions. The wettest areas this month will be to the north west and driest to the south east as there is going to be a constant battle between high and low pressure. The warm mid-Atlantic means we will see some strong low pressure systems developing, which will provide a strong battle against this high. I feel mid-month will see a more low-pressure dominated theme and as a result we will get some thundery activity and SW’ly winds, which are still warm! Following trends in the NAO I expect any warm periods to be few and short lived. I will update mid-month with more tools available to me then. Many Thanks SNOW-MAN2006

I was reading something on MSN News yesterday that thee was plans to convert the North Sea into a power house and becoming the "Gulf" of wind turbines. There are plans to put billions of pounds of our money into this project. We must be in a real power situation if we are also going to have 8 extra nuclear power plants. On a more promising climate report, the first proto type hydrogen fuel station has been made and trialed for hydrogen powered cars, and experts predict that hydrogen cell powered cars will hit the consumer market in just 3 years! so all promosing, but i am not to keen on nuclear power plants, because if one thing goes wrong, we will have a country wide disaster on our hands! SNOW-MAN2006

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK Well, First of all i must apologise to my readers for my recent absence. It was unforeseen and unmanageable, but now i am starting to update more frequently as resources gradually become more available to me. Now onto the forecast. My last forecast, back in march proved very successfully continuing my excellent forecasting track record. In my absence i have been able to realise just how amazing our weather truly is and how i take the models for granted in knowing what to expect in future days. The remainder of June will remain with constant swings in weather, as indicated by the latest NAO forecasting, with variations between periods of positive and negative 4 days segments. So for the remainder of this week the NAO will be negative. Signalling high pressure to the north forcing low pressure south giving us unsettled and at times windy weather. As with a change in pressure, there comes a change in wind direction and we will begin to see northerly winds and cooler weather. Come mid-month, we will begin to witness high pressure retreat and allowing warmer air from the south to migrate north, but only for a few days before we see a return to the varying NAO and the battle between cooler northern air and warmer southern air, this will lead to thunderstorms at times, more prone i'd say in the north. Following mid-month there is little to signal high pressure significantly retreat from the north so i can see it remaining cool and at times unsettled. This theme may well continue into july. JUNE CET PREDICTION; 15.0 (+0.9) Above average, in respect of the recent warmth. I will update my monthly forecast at the end of June before i jet off for 3 weeks to the USA! SNOW-MAN2006

My Early Winter Thoughts This is the 2nd consecutive cool summer. The seas surrounding the UK are very cool and below average. This early indicator (although there is plenty of time for change) show a positive factor that could indicate the UK is heading into a average-below average winter. With a cooler atlantic low pressure systems wont form as strongly or as pronounced as what they would with a warmer atlantic. The seas surrounding Scandinavia are proving above average which suggests there may be an increased low pressure development over there. Should these trends develop over winter we may see an increased presence of low pressure to the the east feeding northerly winds over the UK. With northerly winds comes cold temperatures, and with the prescene of a low-pressure system it may be a year of above average snow fall. This is turning out to be another cool summer. Last winter was quite cool but we didnt have the percipitation to match. The early indication factors that i look at are promising for a cooler winter again this year, but with still around 5 months, before we fall in the snow months, any sitituation could evolve that could alter our winter. SNOW-MAN2006

April Forecast 2008 Well quite an AVERAGE March, I predict a slight above average one, but still a reasonably predicted month. April then, and the charts showing the possibility of something colder in the not so distant future? First Week; The first day of April looks set to have some rain, especially in the north, becoming heavy at times! This is associated with a low-pressure system crossing the north of the country. High pressure will then climb up from the south leaving a relatively unsettled remainder of the working week. Something of note however for the end of the week as low pressure sits to our north east feeding in some colder northerly winds. This could certainly bring the risk of snow to some northern areas later in the week, but always with snow, it is very hard to predict and Is still a long way off so external factors, such as sea effect etc, aren’t accounted for not to mention the precipitation levels, and confidence remains low on this events however, as always, I will monitor the situation. Second Week; After a relatively cold or cool first week the weather should really begin to warm up here, but I feel it may remain “cool” and remaining unsettled I feel. Low pressure never too far away and lots of unsettled and cool days as low pressure runs unusually far south of the country pushing in Easterly (still relatively cool) or Southerly Winds (not from a warm source). Last 2 Weeks; I feel High pressure may re-assert itself in this last half, extending northwards over the country feeding in some moist dry continental air, but always the risk of low pressure nudging it south at times giving some unsettled periods. Overall I will punt for a CET of 8.2 in consideration of the cooler first half. Many Thanks SNOW-MAN2006

8.2 please (0.1 above average) SNOW-MAN2006

Onto my forecast (charts absent); Right then, the site and forum are now up and running smoothly and I have finally found time to fit in a "late mid-month" update. This weekend has seen some sleet and snow cross the country with over 10cm in places. My previous forecast failed to highlight this but I did acknowledge the fact in my forecast that the future was unpredictable, with very few people forecasting this event. Onto the forecast then for March and April 2008; The NAO chart (as seen below) current shows that the current colder weather is down to a negative NAO. This means Low pressure is to the south (anticlockwise winds) and high pressure to the north (clockwise winds) winds allowing the flow of air to come from a much colder north. With low pressure anchored to the east we have seen arctic air flood the country giving snow to many. As you can see it is likely to remain (forecast to) negative well into the first week of April. This means low pressure will continue to feed in colder air over the UK for the time being, winds may veer westerly however from time to time signalling the introduction of milder and wetter weather. My long range forecasts are based on trends and are usually quite successful. Negative phases tend to last for 2 weeks before returning to a positive phase and this 2 week phase is now 3 days in so I expect the first week of April, and the remainder of March to be consumed by this negative phase. So a cool and sometimes wintry theme likely for the next week or two, but seeming as it's almost April the weather seems unlikely to be excessively cool. If this was January however I wouldn't be too surprised if temperatures stayed below freezing all day for this wintry period. During the first week of April the weather will turn milder as high pressure builds from the south. The strength of the NAO is critical here to weather the High pressure will climb far enough North to give mild dry winds or whether low pressure will be squeezed over us keeping it very wet and windy! I think it will be a slow transition, at first wet and windy before by mid-month it will turn dry and mild with a pleasant spring like week. I expect this to remain a similar theme for the April month allowing the final temperatures to be above average. So all in all, winter makes a VERY Late appearance before spring comes bleating in towards April to leave a fine and settled spring in place! Many Thanks SNOWMAN2006

Heck no, This would be the worst thing ever. India has already tried this in the 1970's i believe and it has managed to reduce its population growth, not through this though, but through moving through the Demographic Transition model. With improved healthcare family's have less of a desire to have lots of children to work on the farm (as less are dying now). With the promotion of Contraception also births per 1000 has fallen dramatically. The earth has plent of resources to feed us all. There is plenty of un-used or un-cultivated land enough to support that of maybe 3 or 4 times todays current population. The key is though, by the time our population reaches such heights, is to move out into the galaxy and universe onto other planets similar to that of our own. Anyway this post could go on forever explaining everything so ive left it as brief as possible... Many Thanks SNOW-MAN2006

Going for 7, cold start turning milder and unsettled

Model_Analysis.ppt

Febraury Forecast How_to_Forecast___Long_Term.ppt SNOW-MAN2006

My god a massive up-rising from the almighty SF. I just thought i would try and see if i could get those extra few points. SM06

Ah so this is where this topic has been hiding, right down the bottom of the page. On the 2nd of Jan i issued my forecast and predicted a CET of 4. I know it is the 5th but i made the prediction on the 2nd so i dont no the penalties for late entries so do i get fined for entering now or for predicting on 2nd? (proof is on blog that it was issued on 2nd) many thanks SM06

Another good month, 0.1 out SM06