SNOW-MAN2006

Hi Snowlover, Haha the good old CFS Charts, what a total utter waste of time those charts seem to be, choping and changing more than GFS! My post was a comparison betweent the GFS projection and the ECM projection... The gfs was bringing a more high pressure oriented theme, and easterlys, whereas the ECM was making the high alot less strong and taking it well into EuroRussia and low pressure making in roads. The ensembles showing a middle ground between the two options. My comparison was purely to try and identify what the first week of october may hold and i think the middle ground option is a safe bet... and i am well aware that Fi is a danger zone however the ECM and GFS are showing similar projections up until the strength of this high comes into question. Other points i made where trends. We have been in a very prolonged negative phase... close to record breaking over the last 50 years, and i fear that we cant sustain such a stint much longer, ill be happy for mother nature to prove us wrong, but i cant make the weather do what i want, i am just stating the facts with regards to a Positive phase (lasting on average 4 months) is overdue! And "all those low pressure around greenland" is why i am scared we will see a return to a positive stage as a positive NAO is below average pressure heights over greenland and above average pressure heights over the azores and the especially warm sst's around greenland at the moment do nothing to promote the growth of high pressure. Hope this has helped explain my post further :lol: Regards, SNOW-MAN2006

Yes i agree, but surely a normal Weather warning would have sufficed, not a severe weather warning especially over every region (bar one)in Britain . ? I think netweathers storm warning was much more applicable than the "be prepared" warning put out by Meto. When i saw it i was like i wasnt expecting a weather warning for today yet alone Severe weather warnings for the entire country. Ive never know the meto to over react this much before. Understandably north east scotland have had some pretty persistent rain all day but im sure the country can cope with a few thundery showers... Regards, SNOW-MAN2006

This is something you all wont see very often! Everyone except Ireland, Kent and Scottish Islands has got a severe weather warning for thunderstorms today! BE PREPARED! Regards, SNOW-MAN2006

Atlantic winter... I think we will have a Positive NAO and the only chance of cold through 1-2 day northerlys as low pressure clears through. SNOW-MAN2006

Right Hello Guys, Ive been following the forum closely recently, due to other commitments over the past year or so my posts have been limited. However i thought id wrack my brains and try and take a stab at what October may hold for us. Ive been looking over the models and really there is only one word that can describe them atm and that is a MESS!! I think the big thing that is causing alot of problems for them atm is the strength of the proposed Scandi High that is meant to assert itself over the Coming Week. The GFS wants it to develop into this massive monster, whereas the ECM purely wants to bring in the atlantic lows... which one will win? Well the global Ensembles yesterday were tending towards the ECM however they do seem to have backtracked towards a more GFS way of thinking over the last run. "so who will be right?"... well thats a very tricky question. There is so many conflicting views atm. However i do feel we are heading out of a Prolonged Negative NAO spell. After reviewing the last 50 years worth of NAO (average) Charts the 2009-2010 negative spell looks to be a decent contender for the longest negative NAO spell in the last 50 years. Which leads me to think we are about to exit such spell and head to a positive NAO in time for winter... However Jumping back to October, it does look like a settled first few days may be in prospect (inline with GFS) however one cant ignore the lows sitting in the atlantic and i believe the high will backtrack and allow the low pressure systems to infiltrate from the west, as projected by the global ensembles, within the first week. The jetstream forecast is also portraying some conflicting views with it losing much of its strength before it reaches us spreading further doubt about the High pressures back track... SST's are average around the UK however they are high around Greenland which is why i am thinking there is a likelyhood of a switch back to a positive NAO as low pressure systems start to build more actively there and also the dwindling size of the greenland high.... So im in favour 75% of an above average October accounting for all the information above... If we do head into a positive NAO phase i would prefer it now because most Positive pahses tend to last 3 monthsish which would allow a colder end to winter... So taking everything that ive said into consideration i think a Bet of 11.2 would be quiet reasonable considering the unsettled, westerly dominated month i am prediciting. Ofcourse i wouldnt mind month nature proving me wrong and throwing in an early snowfall or two! Regards, SNOW-MAN2006

Have you seen this link? http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=seatemps;sess= It tells quite a different story... temperatures around average but a significantly warmer than average north atlantic, especially around greenland and N.america coast. SM06

Well with this mornings continued disagreement i say bring on 4 pm when the 12z starts to come out, maybe then we may see one of the models back down, hopefully the UKMO. fingers crossed SM06

6 inches here off last nights showers, took everyone by total suprise! Temps hitting 2 degrees today so i do expect very little thaw...

Rain glorious rain here, still some compact ice left in some places but predominantly gone! And our poor snowman has dissappeared

Band coming into Middelsborough now or shortly.... :/ As TWS mentions maybe we will see something more significant again later in the week...

2 inches in 7 hours is quite impressive! 4 degrees here! At 9 am! This could turn out to be one of the warmest days in a long time if it continues! SM06

yep i have to agree we also have suffered a significant thaw over night... 2 incheshas been shaven off on the grass and that pavements are suffering alot worse!

The only thing we all can do is sit tight and wait, Surface temps are very low and 850's ar eprogged to be around -8 or -7, dewpoints hovering arond 0 or a little above and air temps forecast to be around 3 or maybe a 4 (at the highest), the band is coming in overnight which is a plus because its cooler then.... so i dont know! We will all have to wait and see, maybe well be dissapointed maybe not.... but its all to play for... i dont think it could become more marginal especially here at the coast! SM06

I DONT WANT THIS SNOW TO START TO THAW ON MONDAY! ive waited so long for this snow ill be gutted if it all goes next week! Fingers crossed it wont tur to wet snow... please....

Ive got loads of mini icicles on the bottom of my car! They look awesome! :blink: SM06 PS I love the fact this topic is so quite, no one else has any snow to keep them occupied so they are on the gorum whereas we have plenty to keep all of our members occupied! GO NE!

I think 10cm is quite plausible, the percipitation never really moves anywhere very fast... temps even at the coast are only going to rise to say 3 degrees.... which fills me with the thought we may be lucky... On the other hand i have tracked down my 30cm ruler and im pleased to reprt so far we have exactly 20cm of snow here! Very impressive! If we get another 10cm tomorrow night i may need to buy a bigger ruler! Very impressed with this cold spell now, and if wed had 20cm from the start then i wouldnt of complained about the lack of snow, but now i am over the moon! :blink: Bring on Sunday! SM06

Ive just looked at that! Would be good if it did come off! Wed have nearly half a meter then! what if theyve spotted something... SNOW PLOUGHS AT THE READY CHAPS!

Im wetting myself, been snowing here for the past 5 hours! Its unreal! All A roads are covered in compact snow! Dont no where the gritters are but main roads are terrible! Just thick ice! Heavy snow still and heaviest to come.... first from the end of this band coming through looks quite heavy then as showers continue through the night.... wind still oppsoing the motion of shower movement! Quite suprisingly! Here to the snow everyone enjoy it! BTW I am now happy with this cold spell lol, especially after tonights falls! SNOW-MAN2006

Yep, even Tyne and wear will be facing a few during the daylight hours at this rate, the BBC had them over the moors but current track suggests otherwise! Fingers Crossed SNOW-MAN2006

Tomorrow evening is looking promising, and also there was a mention of showers pepping up tomorrow evening on the local news; Weekend not looking dreadful with percipitation around albeit not very heavy but its still here, meaning snow should nver be too far away! A few more CM's to come for most i feel ... Just a shame there isnt the big foot here, if we where 20 miles north i feel Sunderland would be buried, but we have a measly 6-8cm here, nothing special... And i hear TWS is preeching how next week things are guna start to thaw at the coast, ooo my days! Someone just shoot me now, i havent endured a month of freezing cold to hear this is all im likley to get ! !LOL! Rant over! haha Ahwell, i might just have to re-locate.... 10 miles inland, 400+m up, and have a snow magnet on my roof! No more snow showers for the next 4 or 5 hours i feel judging by the radar, but who knows, anything can happen... bar a blizzard depositing my foot of snow SNOW-MAN2006

wind should turn more easterly shortly helping to bring these showers back in...

yes quite... SM06

Hopefully this streamer wil make landfall 10 miles further south towards sunderland... Newcastle had the showers last night now its our turn please!

hes from south shields.... right on the coast like myself about 4 miles(north)up the road... if my assumption is to be correct ...

well its mm per hour for rain, which converts directly to centimeters per hour for snow... 1mm of rain=1cm of snow obviously they arent guna get 32 cm out of that shower because its intensity at that period is only guna last 5 minutes for the lucky few, but even in that time they could get 3cm.... pretty impressive for a 5 minute job! SM06