SNOW-MAN2006

Hello all, I am now back from fortnight trip to the USA and as I arrived yesterday morning after a long flight i have been unable to post my CET prediction. But now, fully recovered I feel you could find room within your hearts to allow me to enter this competition two days beyond the entry deadline. So if you can find that space then I would like my CET prediction to come in at 15.8. My June forecast will be produced today and will be placed on my blog and also on the 'summer 2007 thoughts' topic. Many Thanks SNOW-MAN2006

I think we are all in similar agreement in what might happen which is always a good sign SMOW-MAN2006

I realise there is a summer 2007 thoughts forum but here is a location for all summer 2007 forecasts. We only have 2 weeks now until summer so here is my usual seasonal forecast. Summer_2007_Forecast.doc I hope you found it beneficial :huh: SNOW-MAN2006

My current thoughts point towards the following; - Very warm summer in comparison to the long term average - Some thundery outbreaks often lasting for long periods although these periods should only be restricted to 1/5 of the entire summer. -Long intense warm spells often deteriorating beyond 2 weeks. - Average to above average rainfall - No signs of an early autumn but August may be the wettest month - Strong Atlantic block enhancing high pressure dominance which would encourage an Indian Summer These are my earliest thoughts, however my summer forecast is out next Saturday and I will post it on the long term discussion thread and my blog. SNOW-MAN2006

Wow !!! i am first for the seasonal round so far anyway... Thankyou JACKONE great contribution SM06

We are on the edge of a disaster, which we may not be able to prevent. We are messing up the earth's natural systems and will pay the price in some ways even if we act now. I will shortly open a new topic to discuss my views. SM06

Of course there will always be the big 'if' word but here is the current synoptics. We are continuing to pour great amounts of C02 into the atmosphere. As we all know C02 is the main cause of global warming. Now already the effects are being seen with vast amountsd of ice melting in the arctic and Antartic. Like desribed from the last ice age 10 mellelias ago a large amount of fresh water was deposited in the atlantic causing widspread cooling to thos who recieved the warmth from the ocean currents, europe and america. Snow fell in july in some parts of america!!! But the main cause for concern lies now because of the vast amounts of fresh water being deposited into the oceans disrupting and slowing these currents. So in response to your question, based upon what we know, a new iceage is inevtiable but judging by the current rate of decrease in cooler water sinking i would estimate in the next 75 years we could see the start of a much cooler period or the next 'ICE AGE'. At the soonest the next 10 years but i would bet on the next 75. The only way we can stop this is by increasing the density of the water so that the colder water sinks again but at this moment in time it is looking like an ice age is inevitable. SM06

Be afraid be very afraid.... At the last iceage The north atlantic drift stalled as a vast amount of fresh water (which is less dense than salty water) was forced into the North Atlantic Ocean. What warms the N.Hemispehre in summer is this current, as warm water rides it travels north encouraging warmth but there is evidence that this is now slowing down. The warmer air being pulled north will stop and with no warm air heading north cold air will track south cooling the entire globe in less than 100 years. The N.hemisphere will be impacted immediately before the s.hemisphere will be impacted later. This isnt a question of how but when? With the ice cas melting at such a rate vast amounts of fresh water will enter the atlantic ocean causing cooling much like the last iceage... GLOBALLY! There is no stop to this now. The current is slowing and the warm waters are continuing to travel north but at a much slower rate as the warmer fresher ocean are warming but the colder water is refusing the fall to create the current... The signs of the next iceage will be when the ocean cool signifantly and the average temperature could fall by 6 degrees.... The extinction of the human race? Only the next 100 years will tell. Global Warming is real but it will lead us into the next iceage.... bear this in mind next time you drive to the shop because it is now a waiting game.. our only hope is for us to slow down the rate inwhich it happens but we need global uniting of reduction in carbonm emmisions which are warming us and melting the Ice preparing us for the next ice age! SM06! Latest update to my theory ****AMUST SEE***** My_Theory.ppt

Well i havent posted for a while, my may forecast is on general spring chat and the CET prediction is a warm 13.9 for me SM06

It all depends really but i feel this year we will see a dominant Euro high bringing us lots of weather like this past week and weekend. So i think an extremly warm summer with prolonged dry spells is in store with temporary wetter spells with cooler weather but on the whole a summer in competition with 2003 and maybey 40 degress may be struck but ofcourse it is insane to predict this from April but yes a definate warm summer. SM06

My renewed prediction is 10.7 Its offical see my forecast on my blog SM06

My predicted CET may actually turn out very near to the true value!!! 6.9 was my prediction and i think that the final CET may only be 0.3 away from this so atlast i have nail how to get a decent CET .... SM06

Most Snowfall came on Wednesday morning with 2-5 cm which i have put down.... but ive only had 2 other slight coverings that melted by mid-morning Bring on Winter 2008 SNOW-MAN2006

Provisional Estimated CET=8.9 Cool start before getting warmer and drier SNOW-MAN2006

If you look on my blog there is one on there on the second page in my little learning area, when if ind some time i will post a new one with more help on identifying developments in the models. Thanks Kelly F, you have a good one to! Hope you enjoy it with tilly Goodbye for now and any further questions dont hesitate to PM me as i rarely visit the Learning area so any questions just give em to me straight to avoid delay For October i will be creating a specific design.... quite exciting really for me but more on that in october SM06

My Final Call = 6.9 SM06

Well juding by the PNA it is looking very unsettled and as we know from the previous months a negative PNA tends to last around a month indicating wet weather (from what paul has indicated)... This is also backed up by the prediction that the NAO will once again turn postive meaning more rain especially towards the start of the month but a negative last few days mabey hinting towards the posibility of a cooler spell... SM06

Hi, Sorry if any offence was take on your behalve, SACRA 07 SM06

Summer Blizzard !!! 9.3 From someone who predicted a very cold winter im shocked.... i thought you liked cold??? SACRA No. 07 SM06

That isnt the solution Barry... it is alright to turn off the street lights but why not your central heating/drive less? We dont want a major impact on our lives we want to lower CO2 levels... Street lights help prevent crime and provide saftey (walking down street + no light = muggings increase... ) SM06

Hello, Well GW is still a potent threat that we have control of. The only way we can conquer the massive emissions currently being emitted then we need to join together. But i dont think GW is the really threat at the moment is the Natural Fossil Fuels that are readily becoming harder and more expensive to extract. It takes nearly 700 120m Wing Span Wind mills to replace one Coal Plant... So where can we plot these 700 wind mills??? This is the major issue that the government is faced with... so their solution is to put them in the sea! Good idea but do they not know that water and electricity do not mix??? And maintenance... Nuclear! Good Idea but with when radioactive waste is deposited in the oceans they end up back on land.... and after a Nuclear site is extinct it takes around 100 years to decommision it!!! Neclear isnt the way.... Fossil Fuels... Like i have said are running out.. C02 production adding to Global Warming Effect and Acidic Rain (from coal, coke an alternative) Biomass... good but again adding to the CO2 effect Solar Panels.... very effecient but only 30% of our electrity in our homes... Tidal and Wave... Good but expensive to set up So what is the answer... use a concentrated mixture of the Renewable sources to be able to eradicate the Fossil Fuels that required burning (below is the process of Fossil Fuels) The_Process_of_using_Fossil_Fuels.xls So we can identify from the diagram that the Furnace is the Problem!!! So what is so good about using alternative renewable sources??? they eradicate the main cause of CO2 which is loacted in the furnace in an attempt to heat water... tpo make steam to turn turbine to turn generator... So what can we all do??? -Turn off tap whilst brushing teeth -Get Draft proofing -get wall insulation -get carpet -get double galzing -use a shower -turn off lights when you are not in the room -Energy Saving Devices -More trees (but they are not the full answer) All of these will reduce energy wasted by us. If we can use less of the stuff we dont need we can use less fossil fuels to produce vast amounts of electricity that is wasted... so the key is to use less energy so we have to produce less allowing the reductuion of Powerplants!!! We are the Key .... not the goverment... but remember one person doesnt make a difference we all need to do our bit to reduce CO2 emmisions.

My seasonal Forecast is confident that march will see some colder weather to start but readily turning milder.... my monthly forecast is updated on 28th but provisional CET is 7.5 SM06

Well, i have now ished this years learning Weekly discussion. I feel that i have now covered many areas to provide a foundation of knowledge for some people. Next years will begin in October and Persist through to January, next years topic will be associated with the world, i am already beginning planning on topic to include in next years episode... -The atmosphere -The stratosphere -The Deep Blue abyss -Volcanoes -Earthquakes -Thunderstorms -Lightening -Analysing PNA, NAO and AO to help compose my winter forecasts -Analysis of how the Jetstream impacts our weather -Our influence on the CO2 AGW warming theory -Trends -Torandoes -Hurricanes -Blizzards -Ice rain -Seasons -And hopefullymuch much more.... Remeber you can easily download my presentations that are basic to provide easy understanding... if you cant load it go onto google and pdownload the free Microsfot powerpoint Viewer... It has been very good providing this learning experience for some and i hope it has helped you learn some new things 'You learn something new every day' SM06 See you all in October

Depends what you think is significant.... lol mabey a day or so error still very good SM06

I am thinking this month may well turn out at around 5.5 mark.... SM06