[Will it snow in......?]

the temp is a msiive 0.6 and it starting to rise slightly, i get the feeling this is very very very bad (in wiltshire) . is the cloud coming in now so will temps rise further???

Temperatures may well continue to rise, im afraid however you can expect snow at 0.6 degrees.... but if it rises above 3 degrees then it will begin to turn wet... wiltshire wont get the main bulk of the snow

SM06

[Will it snow in......?]

Well,

Snow, sleet and rain moving into the SW quite readily now with a few heavty showers remaining around the NE England and Eastern Scotland (couple of CM tonight). This cold spell is quite potent in my view compared to what i thought it may be a few days ago, stay tune to the meto radar here. My earlier worries of snow not making the north east has been halted as the latest GFS run brings in persistant snow later with nightime snow showers providing a dusting... a new development to watch is saturday as another front bringing milder air will bring snow on its leading edge!

Here is the snow charts for the next few hours into Friday Midday-

Thurs 1200

Thurs 1500

Thurs 1800

Frida 0000

Frida 1200

Really interesting developments... Upto 15 cm inland of the midlands and East Wales by along eastern coasts there is the possiblity for a few inches with one or two along the west if your lucky

So interesting times ahead indeed, good luck and enjoy what you get

SNOW-MAN2006

[Weekly topic Discussion]

Bonus Feature;

The_creation_of_planet_earth.ppt

Enjoy

SM06

[Cold spell general discussion pt3 (merged with snow event)]

Ive got lying snow 8P and that metoffice radar last night showed some pretty heavy showers and luckily i got up at numerous occassions last night and saw the snow falling

SM06

[Will it snow in......?]

had a flurry

SM06

[In depth Model Discussion]

Here is my indepth discussion of the 12z run

Technical_Model_Analysis.ppt

Hope you enjoy

SM06

[12z Model discussion - rain, sleet or snow?]

Good Evening everyone,

Here is a model analysis for the GFS, UKMO, GME and NOGAPS, i am still awaiting ECM ?!?! but if i find time i will post those later

Technical_Model_Analysis.ppt

Be warned... it is a pretty big file, if you dont have powerpoint you can download a free powerpoint viewer here .... http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/details...;displaylang=en

Hope you enjoy

SM06

[Will it snow in......?]

i am not happy with that snowman for you have called wales England is this acceptable?

Ahhhh, i see well i basically specified the main areas that i was forecasting but when you go onto the forecast page it does specify wales on it

SM06

[Weekly topic Discussion]

For the final weekly topic discussion i will be posting one of my model interpretations posts into here. I feel this will be a great learning oppurtunity for those who visit my discussion ( if you can call it that) Any hows see you on friday with my final entry...

SM06

[Will it snow in......?]

*sigh* I don't have PowerPoint on my laptop so can't view it.

I always have this problem as i love creating powerpoints which make everything look so much more offical. You can download microsoft powerpoint viewer here as i often make powerpoints that i would love you to see :lol:

SM06

[Will it snow in......?]

Below is my interpretation of the cold spell at present... if i feel anything needs changing to the forecast i will do so but for the mean time there is sufficient information for you to interpret snowfall from my point of view

Will_it_snow_in.ppt

SM06

[Will it snow in......?]

Right,

Signing off so someone else can forecast I will publishing my usual cold spell forecast tommorrow on here to help indentify areas that could see some snow, i need more runs to back up my view points. So good luck and see you all tommorrow

SM06

[Will it snow in......?]

Blizzards - Most likely you will see some snow at points

Arrows- 3 degrees does ssupport snowfall however i wouldnt bet onm anything significant in ipswich (and charts are constantly changing )

SM06

[Will it snow in......?]

The computer keeps bringing it up as sprunehorpe - it should be s c u n t h o r p e!! Sorry it has always done that I don't know why??

Yeht did the same for me and i was like ???? Anyway yep you looking good, nice and far inland but i wouldnt bet on anything until much later in the week as temps look like topping 5 degress for Wednesday, Thursday so check back

Guitar Nutter

I am very unconfident of much snow in wiltshire as it is a bit to far south. Mabey 500m+ may see some lying snow but things can always change

Stephen great forecast and specifies exactly what the charts are showing

SM06

[Will it snow in......?]

What about Sunny Scunny??? Or will it be snowy scunny.??? Thank you

Could you please confirm where scunny is??? sprunehorpe?

SM06

[Will it snow in......?]

please tell me weather in your opinion it will snow or not this week on the IOW anybody.

Thanks,

Russ

In my own opinion it is very unlikely as you are surrounded by a sea and salt doesnt mix with snow... if anything sleet but there is always a chance

SM06

[Will it snow in......?]

how do u reckon York will do?, being east of the pennines is always a disadvantage unless the its from the east of course

Very well im led to believe with a band of percipitation moving in from the west so you do have a fair chance

will it snow in wiltshire, 70m asl and 260m asl??

1) You have one big house most unlikely on your first floor but as you move onto your 200th floor you may see some sleety stuff

Will it snow in North somerset.

Somerset.... not to sure however i am confident you will see some white stuff

SM06

[12z model discussion - it's gonna get cold...]

Good post, im not sure what to make of the chart youve made, i suppose its a wait and see scenario

Like i say it is only a rough guide. With the last cold spell my forecast was quite successful so i will be producing an indepth analysis where you can select your region and it will give that area a 5 day forecast

SM06

[12z model discussion - it's gonna get cold...]

Just a few charts to post here....

But first i would like to highlight that this is a truely great run for snow lovers. During this period there is the potential for snow anywhere from (drawing a line northwards) bristol eastwards & Snowdonia. The charts reflect the major event of each day and there is a coloured UK map with some rough estimates of any snow amounts

Wednesday

On Wednesday there remains the risk of some light, snow/sleet showers down the eastern coasts. Especially for the Northeast areas. sleety towards the coastal areas these showers will be.

Thursday

Rain approaches from the west/South west but a continuation of those snow showers in the north east which are likely to be more sleety at midday to lower levels due to temperatures approaching 5 degrees.

Friday

This chart shows country wide snow which is looking light and if not showery. Temperatures at there lowest on Friday and snow is more likely to lower levels.

These are rough guidelines (to give an accurate estimate 48 hours before is unlikely so please bear this in mind )

So there is a quick round up of the 12z run from the GFS havent seen other charts yet but GFS is really looking good tonight.

SNOW-MAN2006

[Weekly topic Discussion]

Precipitation.ppt

SM06

[February CET]

current metcheck CET at 5.1 which is quite cool, i expect the cet to finish off at around this value after further watching the models....

SM06

[February CET]

We've polluted the planet massively since the late 1800's. We're the reason why the planets warming up and why we have a reduced chance of seeing snow and cold every year winter passes. But it doesn't mean in the immediate future snow and cold won't be notable. I'd say we have les then 20 years until it becomes impossible though!

Hi OP,

Whether we get snow all depend on the synoptics. The last few years has seen a pattern change with High pressure situated further east and more low pressure dominance. Enless we get high pressure really far east to allow low pressure to get into europe then we see mild sw'lys so the thing to blame for no snow is that high pressure isnt far west enough to drag in easterly winds and it isnt to east enough to allow a northerly flow from northerly's (this is the trend and at times it varies) all we need is the right synoptics for snow....

SM06

[Glimmer of hope model discussion]

Looks as though im going to have an interesting journey upto the Scottish Highlands next Saturday then. :lol:

Any ideas on what will happen after that though

Well mr.snowman just have a look at your areas ensembles (below is for tyne and wear):

and as you can see there is a chance of -10 850ph to +9 850ph's so basically anything could happen but the mean ensemble run tells me temperatures hovering around the 7 degress mark....

SM06 :lol:

[Glimmer of hope model discussion]

Hi,

Here is the latest GFS run of the Breakdown during friday

0600 hours

As we can see the east having quite a bit of AM snowfall with some very cold temperatures but already signs of rain in the west.

0900 hours

Some sleet (green) or snow (pink) for most areas ahead of the low pressure system rolling in.

1200 hours

Could potentially be a midday caous event with some wintriness for most areas...

1500 hours

[attach

ment=31452:Friday_15hrs_Temps.png]

We can really see that low pressure working its way in throughout the day and temperatures slowly increasing from the SW with some quite strong winds from that pressure chart in the West. First signs of rain to lower levels throughout the period.

1800 hours

Sleet for higher elevations but mostly rain at this point to lower levels as temperatures increase.

So something to watch definately there....

and here on the ECM there is signs of a tempary easterly as low pressure dips into Germany before we see our return to unsettled conditions...

I will also be releasing my interpretation of this cold spell on the winter discussion later for the week ahead so stay tuned to that or simply look at it on my blog :lol:

SNOW-MAN2006

[February CET]

am sorry for my renewed CET prediction but i am having to increase my prediction further to 7.75 sorry ~(last update i swear )

SM06