SNOW-MAN2006
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Posts posted by SNOW-MAN2006
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OMG SNOW FALLING SO HEAVY HERE! JUST LOOKED OUT THE WINDOW A GOOD 5cm on the GROUND! OUTSIDE TEMPS -3 and drifitng occuring in this strong wind!!! Showers now piling in....
SNOW-MAN2006 wakes up.... dreaming again eh?
:lol:
SM06
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Yes thats five days away including today, isnt that FI?
It might well be FI but when all the models are in general agreement about what is going to happen then one does start to think these temperatures may occur under the synoptics being shown...
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Going by the way people have been talking on here i thought the country was in for a very cold snap? 4 - 7 degrees on the coast according to the models doesnt suggest a COLD spell.
There again most positive posts regarding COLD do go by peoples locations.
I am just very confused as a newbie how this cold spell is being hyped when most people in the UK wont really see much of it. Hardly Feb 91 is it...that was a cold spell, temps below freezing by day across the whole country with snow. Not 4 -7 dregrees around coasts with drizzle and some snow in the east.
Sorry if a little off topic.
Good question, confuses me too. Maybe the experience of the BBC shows, and just shows that most people here are trying hard, but dont really know what they are talking about when it comes to the models.
Im Sorry but if this chart doesnt prove you wrong then i dont know what will...
This is daytime MAXIMA for sunday....
SNOW-MAN2006
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slight downgrade for the northeast on this run for friday...temperatures at 3 or 4 now at the coast meaning marginal im afraid... but on a plus saturday looking very cold 1 degree at the coast and the percipitation has picked back up
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wooo there could 10cm on the ground by Sunday :drinks:i'll drink to that lol
thanks for that SNOW-MAN2006
Whats the chances of it hanging around for christmas?
KEY WORD COULD... not SET IN STONE ...
Ask me the same question on Tuesday, i shall have a n answer by then, but atm not looking good, the last few runs bring the breakdown close to xmas but the current gfs run 18z shows a very snowy christmas with widspread snow and cold lasting until new year, widely 20+ cm of nsow if this run where to come off easily!
BUT in line with current runs it has a minimal chance of coming off, put your money on a green xmas id say
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you make it sound like just a newcastle, geordie event. there is yorkshire too and also the pennines.
no my reference is clearly for the eastern coast, i dont expect the pennines to be best situated for these events.... yes whilst the pennines as best for hieght and temps they are not in the firing line im afraid .... but yes yorkshire are but more east yorkshire than anything else...
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STUNNING 18z Run
The current run suggets this for the northeast of England;
WEDNESDAY - Pretty miserable day for all, moderate rain moving south across the region, maybe falling as sleet over the highest of ground, but nothing to be getting excited about
THURSDAY- The real cold comes in during thursday afternoon. So showers for the east cost making it inland at times turning increasingly to snow as the day wears on... Showers tending to die away though as evening encroaches to leave a very cold night in its place...
FRIDAY- Heavy showers down that eastern coast again stretching inland at times... More frequent during mid afternoon Then a heavy pulse of snow stretching down through friday evening... temps widley at 2-3 degrees -Snow likely-
SATURDAY- Showers early in the east dying away, before a band of (currently forecast) light snow to extend through the region (was forecast as moderate snow on earlier runs) leaving further heavy snow showers behind along the eastern coast...
Following this (VERY MUCH SUBJECT TO CHANGE) - Then showers tend to dye away after sunday morning giving winter sunshine for sunday and monday but a widspread ice days across the region before the potential for an easterly reload come Tuesday bringing the threat of further HEAVY SNOW....
Snow potential is highest along the east coast so places such as middlesbrough, newcastle sunderland are all likely to be in the firing line... as much as maybe 2-4cm on thursday 6+cm Friday evening and then 2cm during Saturday (but more with the places due to see the heavy showers on the coast on Saurday night)
The coast could see atleast 10cm on the ground come Sunday morning....
SNOW-MAN2006
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Saturdays Front has been downgrades i fele in terms of percipiation, especially for the middle slice of the country.... still plenty of time for change though however...
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more percipitation down the east coast so far on this run.... now out to 69 hours... marginal at NE ENGLAND coast though with temps climbing to 3 or 4 degrees... right down the east coast though plentiful showers with temperatures widley at 1 or 2 at the coast...
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Snowed in on the north east coast Saturday night?
2 degrees at the coast, doubt it will be marginal with such heavy percipitation though...
Sledges at the ready!!!
SNOw-MAN2006
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Whilst i am fully aware this is 6 days out this chart has made my day;
*bear in mind though the temp chart is the minimum temps, maximum temps are still widley at 0 or 1*
SLEDGES AT THE READY from the gfs for saturdaySNOW-MAN2006
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Pic of the runs of the potent snowy N-ly afterwards will be the GEM/ECM.
Similar agreement from the GFS 06z althogh 850's arent particularly cold....
SM06
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nice -10's moving south from the north a week today...
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Right so just to put things into perspective, the intial cold spell over this weekend isnt looking great but the potential for next weekend is fantastic, yes its ages away but the is a general consenus between the models.... GFS has the low at 144 much further to our NE whereas the ECM bring it into the north sea.... and a freezing easterly.NEly to accompany it.... brill i think
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ecm looks great i think, high pressure further east so more of a low pressure influence and hence more percipitation.... cold eastern flow to.... :/ why is everyone so glum i do not comprehend why?
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Seriously I'm not really saying that a 1963 or 1947 will happen this winter. If you look at the temperature profiles across the northern hemisphere at this time, there are two definite larger cold air cells this year than in many recent years. The Siberian cell is huge extending right across the whole of Russia and into China while the north American cell covers the whole of Canada and reaching northern USA (causing the snowstorms there at the moment). A snowy Christmas is more likely to happen than not. I say 50-50 at this time. But it all depends upon the Scandinavian High staying put.
Well yes your correct in saying its 50 - 50 its winter its either warm or cold... and seeming as the GFS clearly doesnt know what it wants to happen next week there is a 50-50 chance of a heat wave too!
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GFS 12z Cold Spell Watch
T36 HRS
Cool Evening Across the UK as 0 850's spread from the east. Minus Dewpoints from Midlands north indicating the possibilty of a frost forming (bar the coasts) ... A very nice clear night but wrap up warm. Low Winds bar the west of ireland as isobars tighten at the western edge of the high as it bumps up against the low pressure sitting off the coast of northern canada.
T60 SUNDAY 0:00 HRS
-5 850's coming in from the SE Corner. Again frost risk posed for spine of the country. Some light showers getting into the Far SE Corner, whilst 850's seem low enough for snow Ground level temps still dont support such wintryness. Only getting as far as from the river severn to probabily nottingham (if ya draw a line) then receeding again.
T-87 MONDAY 3:00 HRS
The -5 850's head back in with -10's coming across france, germany and poland. Dewpoints close to but not below zero so snow may well be limited unlike what the GFS Percip charts are showing.
T-99 MONDAY 15:00 HRS
-5s now spreads across entire UK. -8s getting into SE Corner and -10s Bordering the Kent Coast. HP Eye sat nicely to our NE pulling in some fresh easterly winds. GFS Percip charts showing snow falling quite widley but actual percip charts show heavy showers for East Midlands Yorkshire down to the SE with a few showers for NE england Coast. All of which have the potential to be wintry but more likely the further SE you travel. Sea breeze helping coastlines to stay to 4/5 degrees making things very very marginal here at the least.
T-114 TUESDAY 06:00 HRS
A light band of showers heading north west wards during the night it would seem to give those inland and high up a nice morning dusting, *POSSIBILTY* ONLY! Dew points and temps fall away behind this band as skies tend to clear. Some light showers flirting with the south coast again likely to be wintry if they get inland and less coastal warming here so boundaries will be far less. Airfeed now a component of the arctic and Siberia.
Thats the story so far in terms of the GFS.... Wednesday night sees heavy showers for the east but quite warm here maybe reaching a 7 or 8 by wednesday morning... :/ The Cold air is coming...arriving in scotland north by midday wednesday then presumabley south, awaiting T147.... it is also to be noted the cold air being prevelant over the south in the shorter term... but i would say this event is still marginal for coastal areas in the south, the north will get their turn later in the week is how its looking...
Will update when the run is finished....
SNOW-MAN2006
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What we do have to remember though is that cold air is very dense, and with the majority of Europe covered in sub-zero air, the Atlantic will have a job to push it out of the way. This sort of set-up, once established, proves very difficult to change in a hurry. This is why people have to remember, even if the charts aren't showing snow in yor area within the reliable timeframe, the potential is still there for days to come.
Correct Europe does have alot of dense cold air, but that isnt covering the UK. It may or may not seep into the uk, if it does spot on widspread snow but if it doesnt it will be very very marginal. And therefore with us being on the boundary of such cold it can easily go out as quick as it comes in all it takes is for the high and low pressure to move by a couple of hundered miles and were back to square one... We cant possibly see what is guna be in store for xmas until atleast another 7 days or so ... especially with so much oppurunity out there atm.
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According to the latest forecast models very cold air from the North East will certainly establish itself across northern Europe. This kind of pattern with high pressure to the east of Scandinavia is the classical severe winter weather scenario seen before in 1963 and the famous 1947 winter! How long the high pressure stays there is the key to the severity of a UK winter. So there is very good reason at this moment in time to give odds on 2-1 that Christmas 2009 will be a snowy one!
How can you justify this. The current run does not suggest anything of the wintry stuff at christmas. Yes on previous runs it has but currently it doesnt. Nobody can give more than id say 10% accuracy for what lies in store xmas day. there is 15 days left to go, an eternity in terms of weather forecasting, we still dont no whats guna happen next week yet alone in a fortnights time. And if next weeks weather does come off its guna take something special to keep it here for such a long period of time... something i do not see happening, we are guna be lucky at this rate to have a severe cold spell yet alone one last for more than 10 days..... more like 8-1 to be realistic
SNOW-MAN2006
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Well this all looks certainly very interesting.
Its been a while since ive posted on this forum probably a good year or so.... This is looking to shape up nicely and is certianly looking more and more plausible by the day.... but as mentioned numerous times before it is still a mile away, the building blocks are looking certain but in terms of the juicy stuff it is still a long way off.... ill be back on friday or saturday to review the situation!
My Charts of the day has to be most of the ECM and the JMA is looking very nice too. Even the GFS looks very nice in the short term but a very messy situation later on... but still prospects are there....
Ill be back friday, well either have our heads in our hands or well be getting the sledges dusted down and the de-icer at the ready....
Ciao,
SNOW-MAN2006
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Thick cover of snow on the ground now and FINALLY we have had our long awaited heavy snowfall. The snow arrived about 1030 and has continued moderatly for the last 3 hours depsiting some impressive amounts for the coast. Still snowing now and an expectation of further snow for the next few hours even into the evening according the the bbc. A minimum of another hour or two of snow.
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No snow again expected! Surley sunderland cant miss out all together, lets see what sunday and next week brings....
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Been heavy snow showers all day..... then the band of "Snow" was meant to be heading in but as soon as that came all weve seen is rain! Just my luck!
I am sooo annoyed because i was expecting heavy snow tonight..... suppose Sunderland should be excluded from the heaviest snowfall in 18 years
SM06
Snowed in on the north east coast Saturday night? 
SLEDGES AT THE READY from the gfs for saturday
North East England Cold Spell Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Latest radar showing some heavy showers pepping up quite nicley just to our east...