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SNOW-MAN2006

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Posts posted by SNOW-MAN2006

    October Cet

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    you only have to look at gfs 12z in fi and see all the blocking to the east and the low pressures all gathered around greenland to see that a positive nao could be short lived. with blocking still there, theres a good chance it will be short positive nao.

    there charts say otherwise

    http://www.cpc.ncep..../glbz200Mon.gif

    mid atlantic blocking for october keeping us cool and the end of autumn start of winter, couldnt ask for anything less.

    gfs fi should be taken with a pinch of salt as it has been showing blocking, autumnal weather, the works really. i do think we will see more low pressure around greenland, but i doubt it will last or be a massive polar vortex. interesting if it is correct, then it would prbably mean a very autumnal october, total opposite to what lrfs have been predicitng, having said that there is signs of scandi high too.

    Hi Snowlover,

    Haha the good old CFS Charts, what a total utter waste of time those charts seem to be, choping and changing more than GFS!

    My post was a comparison betweent the GFS projection and the ECM projection... The gfs was bringing a more high pressure oriented theme, and easterlys, whereas the ECM was making the high alot less strong and taking it well into EuroRussia and low pressure making in roads. The ensembles showing a middle ground between the two options. My comparison was purely to try and identify what the first week of october may hold and i think the middle ground option is a safe bet... and i am well aware that Fi is a danger zone however the ECM and GFS are showing similar projections up until the strength of this high comes into question.

    Other points i made where trends. We have been in a very prolonged negative phase... close to record breaking over the last 50 years, and i fear that we cant sustain such a stint much longer, ill be happy for mother nature to prove us wrong, but i cant make the weather do what i want, i am just stating the facts with regards to a Positive phase (lasting on average 4 months) is overdue!

    And "all those low pressure around greenland" is why i am scared we will see a return to a positive stage as a positive NAO is below average pressure heights over greenland and above average pressure heights over the azores and the especially warm sst's around greenland at the moment do nothing to promote the growth of high pressure.

    Hope this has helped explain my post further :lol:

    Regards,

    SNOW-MAN2006

    You'll Not See This Very Often!

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I suppose the warning was more justified around here with torrential rain around with flash flooding in places.

    However i think the warning is being read too much by some people. Just because your region is in orange does not mean there will be severe weather but the risk of severe weather. I think they placed far too many regions under warnings like Northern Scotland and Southern and Western parts of England.

    Yes i agree, but surely a normal Weather warning would have sufficed, not a severe weather warning especially over every region (bar one)in Britain . ? I think netweathers storm warning was much more applicable than the "be prepared" warning put out by Meto.

    When i saw it i was like i wasnt expecting a weather warning for today yet alone Severe weather warnings for the entire country. Ive never know the meto to over react this much before. Understandably north east scotland have had some pretty persistent rain all day but im sure the country can cope with a few thundery showers...

    Regards,

    SNOW-MAN2006

    October Cet

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Right Hello Guys,

    Ive been following the forum closely recently, due to other commitments over the past year or so my posts have been limited.

    However i thought id wrack my brains and try and take a stab at what October may hold for us. Ive been looking over the models and really there is only one word that can describe them atm and that is a MESS!! I think the big thing that is causing alot of problems for them atm is the strength of the proposed Scandi High that is meant to assert itself over the Coming Week. The GFS wants it to develop into this massive monster, whereas the ECM purely wants to bring in the atlantic lows... which one will win? Well the global Ensembles yesterday were tending towards the ECM however they do seem to have backtracked towards a more GFS way of thinking over the last run.

    "so who will be right?"... well thats a very tricky question. There is so many conflicting views atm. However i do feel we are heading out of a Prolonged Negative NAO spell. After reviewing the last 50 years worth of NAO (average) Charts the 2009-2010 negative spell looks to be a decent contender for the longest negative NAO spell in the last 50 years. Which leads me to think we are about to exit such spell and head to a positive NAO in time for winter... However Jumping back to October, it does look like a settled first few days may be in prospect (inline with GFS) however one cant ignore the lows sitting in the atlantic and i believe the high will backtrack and allow the low pressure systems to infiltrate from the west, as projected by the global ensembles, within the first week. The jetstream forecast is also portraying some conflicting views with it losing much of its strength before it reaches us spreading further doubt about the High pressures back track...

    SST's are average around the UK however they are high around Greenland which is why i am thinking there is a likelyhood of a switch back to a positive NAO as low pressure systems start to build more actively there and also the dwindling size of the greenland high....

    So im in favour 75% of an above average October accounting for all the information above... If we do head into a positive NAO phase i would prefer it now because most Positive pahses tend to last 3 monthsish which would allow a colder end to winter... So taking everything that ive said into consideration i think a Bet of 11.2 would be quiet reasonable considering the unsettled, westerly dominated month i am prediciting.

    Ofcourse i wouldnt mind month nature proving me wrong and throwing in an early snowfall or two!

    Regards,

    SNOW-MAN2006

    The North Atlantic Current Is Gone

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Has anyone noticed the cold SST around much of the UK? Many places in single figures according to Netweather extra. According to the actual observed temperatures as opposed to the model projections they are some 7c lower than the model is predicting. Anyone seeing the same thing?

    Have you seen this link? http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=seatemps;sess=

    It tells quite a different story... temperatures around average but a significantly warmer than average north atlantic, especially around greenland and N.america coast.

    SM06

    North East England Cold Spell Dicussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The only thing we all can do is sit tight and wait, Surface temps are very low and 850's ar eprogged to be around -8 or -7, dewpoints hovering arond 0 or a little above and air temps forecast to be around 3 or maybe a 4 (at the highest), the band is coming in overnight which is a plus because its cooler then.... so i dont know! We will all have to wait and see, maybe well be dissapointed maybe not.... but its all to play for... i dont think it could become more marginal especially here at the coast!

    SM06

    North East England Cold Spell Dicussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SNOW-MAN2006

    been out and about today never seen so many large icicles in my life!unsure.gif

    Ive got loads of mini icicles on the bottom of my car! They look awesome!

    :blink:

    SM06

    PS I love the fact this topic is so quite, no one else has any snow to keep them occupied so they are on the gorum whereas we have plenty to keep all of our members occupied! GO NE!

    North East England Cold Spell Dicussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Light snow here but looks like there's another hefty one coming in.

    I;ve been out measuring and struggling to find any level areas less than 10", some areas up to 11". A very very good cover and more since Feb '91.

    As for tomorrow/Monday I'm not sure why they're forecasting so much snow. It seems ultra cautious to me which may suggest it'll be a non-event but I'm ready to be proved wrong!

    I think 10cm is quite plausible, the percipitation never really moves anywhere very fast... temps even at the coast are only going to rise to say 3 degrees.... which fills me with the thought we may be lucky...

    On the other hand i have tracked down my 30cm ruler and im pleased to reprt so far we have exactly 20cm of snow here! Very impressive! If we get another 10cm tomorrow night i may need to buy a bigger ruler!

    Very impressed with this cold spell now, and if wed had 20cm from the start then i wouldnt of complained about the lack of snow, but now i am over the moon! :blink: Bring on Sunday!

    SM06

    North East England Cold Spell Dicussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Im wetting myself, been snowing here for the past 5 hours! Its unreal! All A roads are covered in compact snow! Dont no where the gritters are but main roads are terrible! Just thick ice! Heavy snow still and heaviest to come.... first from the end of this band coming through looks quite heavy then as showers continue through the night.... wind still oppsoing the motion of shower movement! Quite suprisingly!

    Here to the snow everyone enjoy it! :whistling: BTW I am now happy with this cold spell :air_kiss: lol, especially after tonights falls!

    SNOW-MAN2006

    North East England Cold Spell Dicussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Looks to me like they're going to paste the entire coast of Durham and the N York Moors. The further south they get, the more they swing from the east. This takes them up the Tees Valley rather than just over the moors like the early morning weather graphics showed.

    Yep, even Tyne and wear will be facing a few during the daylight hours at this rate, the BBC had them over the moors but current track suggests otherwise!

    Fingers Crossed

    SNOW-MAN2006

    North East England Cold Spell Dicussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Tomorrow evening is looking promising, and also there was a mention of showers pepping up tomorrow evening on the local news;

    post-4252-12629053291752_thumb.png

    Weekend not looking dreadful with percipitation around albeit not very heavy but its still here, meaning snow should nver be too far away!

    A few more CM's to come for most i feel ...

    Just a shame there isnt the big foot here, if we where 20 miles north i feel Sunderland would be buried, but we have a measly 6-8cm here, nothing special...

    And i hear TWS is preeching how next week things are guna start to thaw at the coast, ooo my days! Someone just shoot me now, i havent endured a month of freezing cold to hear this is all im likley to get ! !LOL! Rant over! haha

    Ahwell, i might just have to re-locate.... 10 miles inland, 400+m up, and have a snow magnet on my roof!

    No more snow showers for the next 4 or 5 hours i feel judging by the radar, but who knows, anything can happen... bar a blizzard depositing my foot of snow :fool:

    SNOW-MAN2006

    North East England Cold Spell Dicussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I take it that's what the scale on the right represents then Snowman? cm per hour?

    well its mm per hour for rain, which converts directly to centimeters per hour for snow...

    1mm of rain=1cm of snow

    obviously they arent guna get 32 cm out of that shower because its intensity at that period is only guna last 5 minutes for the lucky few, but even in that time they could get 3cm.... pretty impressive for a 5 minute job!

    SM06

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