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chris55

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Everything posted by chris55

  1. chris55
    Amazing ECM this morning, perfect alignment, no sinker there!!! And as Nick says decent ensemble support. Obviously still changes to come but things are looking the best they have so far for a potential cold easterly.
  2. chris55
    No it wont, it's all conjecture to be honest, forecasting beyond day 5 is not an exact science, if we move to a mild pattern then so be it. A conjecture is a proposition that is unproven, all model output and professional opinion is unproven when it comes to weather forecasting, it's the very essence of model watching. If my car is stolen, then I would feel let down by that, as I know 100% that I own it. We don't know anything is 100% in weather terms.
  3. chris55
    Yes Ian, that's my whole point, at day 10 these things are open to change, a tilt here or there, or a more favourable jet could change the conditions for our little patch.
  4. chris55
    At day 10 this charts is as good as one showing "snowmagedon" for parts of the UK, http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif Small tweaks either way in the broad pattern at this range could result in a milder flow or a serious battleground scenario. Just because day 10 shows us on the milder side, really makes little difference IMO.,
  5. chris55
    Potential for a bit of sleet/snow into tomorrow, mainly with a bit of elevation. 30% chance of 1-3 cms on higher ground. A nice crisp and sunny day to follow with a cold night thereafter. Also mentioned "interesting" rest of December.....more on tomorrows Points West.
  6. chris55
    Tantalising forecast from The big I.F on points West (winking smiley) Tonight into the morning holds a bit of interest for us snow fans, but the comment about the rest of December was one to watch!!
  7. chris55
    PPN on the radar looks a little more widespread than maybe I expected at this point. How it evolves into tomorrow I don't know, I'll just have to watch the Points West forecast I guess. As for the mid term, as others have pointed out GFS mean is looking very good, following some similar mean runs from the ECM.
  8. chris55
    Remember the top one is the mean output, so although it looks "looser" the pattern is exactly the same.
  9. chris55
    Yesterdays ECM mean at 168 is pretty much identical to todays Det for the same period, so no big swings from ECM this morning.
  10. chris55
    God, innuendo and Star Wars quotes, it must me getting late!
  11. chris55
    I would say it's good as heights would rise behind it in the Greenland are with northerly winds for our region.
  12. chris55
    Great input Ian, many thanks for the tit bits from the Met.
  13. chris55
    That was probably the coldest easterly ever recorded!!!! At least in the last century (WRT uppers) Aiming quite high there!
  14. chris55
    Strat thread is a bit quiet, anything happening up there?
  15. chris55
    8 out of 10 times we get decent heavy snow in our region is by this route. Personally I really do enjoy the cold generally, but you can't get the white stuff without some cold air in place first so it's always important to get that bit done then look for the snow after..
  16. chris55
    ECM mean days 9 and 10
  17. chris55
    It's all subjective. I prefer to get some cold in place first with frost, then I'm happy to see if it might snow. The ECM chart for me (even though it's at 240) shows very cold uppers knocking on the door with cold uppers in place across the uk.
  18. chris55
    Good charts about, overall a cold December looks odds on, it's just getting the proper cold to our shores that seems to be requiring some patience at the moment. I'm sure we'll get there eventually, and it's a whole lot more fun than chasing a cold pattern when we're stuck in the clutches of a zonal flow. A beautiful ECM 240 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif
  19. chris55
    That one sticks in my head rather well. Back then (in the dry days, regarding snowfall) I came home from work expecting nothing only to watch the forecast for a period of heavy snow, didn't amount to that much on the ground, a few cms, but was a surprise.
  20. chris55
    Oh nice update Ian. Just looked at the NAE for this period, interesting. Although hills favoured as you say. PPN looks well defined though, ie heavyish. http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/12/03/basis12/ukuk/prty/12120512_0312.gif
  21. chris55
    Cotswolds lol
  22. chris55
    For me, the lakes freezing over at one of my dog walking locations (Frampton on Severn) means we are in a proper cold spell. Before 2009 I could not of imagined such a thing, but since then they have frozen over twice. If we get another freeze over this winter then that would be remarkable considering the 20 years before this probably only saw one freeze over in 95.
  23. chris55
    ECM much better than GFS at 192 with the Low undercutting the building ridge, GFS pushes some energy over the top, http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1921.png Resulting in a good Greenland block on ECM versus an Atlantic high on the GFS http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2401.png But as others have said a long way to go yet, but it's encouraging ECM is following it's longer term outlook (ec 32) and the trend for height rises to the north and east remain.
  24. chris55
    GEFS ens still with the possibility of something quite interesting for Thursday, about 8 out of 20 bring in snow for parts of England. p12 best for the snowy slider, P19 not so interesting, Overall little support for the really snowy option but one to watch and if were very lucky p 12 could be on the money.
  25. chris55
    Ian why don't the public get to see said charts? With some 160 million coming out of the public purse (the majority of the METs budget) it's actually quite annoying that the info is not available to us mere mortals. Is it the commercial arm of the MET that stops such info being widely available?
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