chris55

Hi Ian thanks for the analysis. Great to have my local (and very good) weatherman posting on the forum! Out of interest when does the UKMO seasonal model update? This one, http://www.metoffice.../glob-seas-prob

Thanks Chion' so a SSW is a reversal of the mean westerly Zonal winds, ie blocking occurring at high latitudes meaning the winds at the 60n go anticlockwise round the highs reversing the winds. And warming at the upper levels will hopefully trigger this.

Hi guys A question from me on this Strat warming. I understand from reading this thread that although we have some good warming forecast for the 1hpa level of the Strat, this is not yet a SSW event, but may trigger one (is that right?) What do we need to see in the forecast charts that show a SSW event taking place. On the chart below we see the forecast warmings at 1hpa and 10hpa but not at the 30hpa level. I take it these warmings are not SSW events (or are they?) and if we do get the SSW will it show on the 30hpa red line? http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php#fig2

Remember people, the term "even larger teapot" has most definitely disappeared from all weather sites these past few years, and rightly so. This to me says those calling mild right through till March should tred with care, maybe in the mild winters of the christmas pudding such a call might be right but I'll reserve judgement for the time being. We'll find out in April if the term may be re-instated . But my gut feeling is mid Jan onwards will be cold with snow potential, though it may come earlier than that. ^^^^^lol :rofl: "modern ~era" has been classed as a swear word or the like and has been replaced with Christmas pudding!!!!! (by the way I don't believe in the term was just using it to highlight my point)

Hi chiller, if you look at the 2010 chart I posted you can see that the amazing December 2010 had no strat warming at 30hpa, and we recorded one of the coldest Decembers on record! So it shows that although there seems to be some link between SSW events and cold blocked patterns it's certainly not the only way to get such patterns.

Hi guys I very rarely post on Net weather but I do find the whole Strat warming thing very interesting and have very much enjoyed reading through this thread, some great info. I thought I'd just add in a few links for the benefit of those (like me) who don't fully understand the subject to well. Now the forecasting of a SSW is beyond me, but I find this page excellent for monitoring a SSW when it happens and to see if it's propagating down through the atmosphere. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/ Back in Jan 2009 we had a major SSW that rapidly propagated down to 30hpa and had a big influence on our weather. You can see the SSW event and the following propagation well on this chart. Note how the temp goes from very cold (white) to much less cold (greens) and nearly off the scale at the 1hpa level. This is a great example of what a SSW looks like on these charts. After this warming a much more blocked pattern took hold http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090203.gif Again in 2010, and although this warming wasn't as dramatic as 2009, nor did it propagate down so well or fast it still had a big impact on the blocking patterns. Following blocking http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120100217.gif Now this year we have not seen a SSW that has propagated down to 30hpa and in turn have not seen any really blocked patterns in the winter period (last Jan and Feb included) So I am hoping to see some more SSW appearing in these charts as we move through winter, and after reading through this thread I am hopeful we may be heading in that direction!. And there is also the question how much influence these SSW actually have on our weather. But as a novice ut seems to me they do. (BTW how do I get those pics small?)

I still don't really think that the new system is as good as the old and it never can be, however I have seen some good things starting to apeer on the new system and if the forecaster is a bit imaginitive then the forecasts can be informatie and a pleasure to watch. The other day hellen willets, from a distance, zoomed into a synoptic chart showing a deep low pressure over scotland then issued a pop up weather warning with the zoomed chart behind. Which i thought worked well and showed the situation well. Where as the same day another forecaster simply said it will be windy in the north and showed the l rain/shadow map to illistrate this (no wind animation) wich was not very inmormative or pleasing to watch. So if used well the graphics can be made better. The new wind arrows are better than the litlle white flashing ones buit if you compare them to the old ones I really don't think anyone could say they are "clearer" or "easier to understand" than the old ones. Frost looks good though and i like the way it moves around with the clear skies. As people have said the resalution beyod 24/36 hors is so bad that I think they are hardly worth using at all. And I notice that alot of forecasters don't use them and simply put up the summary boxes and city names for days 2/3/4. I think this is a major flaw in the whole system and the fact that you can't get a decent forecast past 36 hours frustrates people the most. I think this is the reason people are most upset with the new graphics. If this problem is delt with and the system can be used to forecast well beyond 36 hours in detail this would be the improvment the system really needs. I know the BBC used to get lots of awards for the old system and rightly so. However I will be interested to see how the new graphics compare in this respect. In my opinion they will not do very well and I dont think they deserve an award for to many reasons to go into, a lot of them have been discussed before though. Any way just my latest thought on the weather graphics and ill probably pass them on to BBC. .

Surely there is enough justification for the licence fee holders who do want detailed weather to have access to a decent forecast. The net or bbci are two very usefull means to access it from and would suite me. However i think there are enough people out ther who would like to see this on normal TV, like an 11 oclock weather view with more focus on the UK. There are plenty of target audience programs out there that only cater for a small minority of the paying public but are most certainly justified. a detailed weather slot would be similar. (just to moan on a bit more) The 2000 weather relaunch was really the pinacle of BBC forecasting. After this relaunch was there any complaints!! probally not. And during the 5 years it was used it served the british public in general very well but also gave a little more to the weather enthusiasts. When they relaunched again in may they changed things for the benefit of the people who weren't really interested in weather in first place ie- people who just want a sunny rainy forecast, by doing this your really just taking away from the people who are interested, if you get me. Any way it's here to stay now and thats it I guess.

As we all know, in most of our opinions the new graphics from the bbc are not as informative and detailed as they used to be. They seem to short, don't have synoptic charts and generally dont tell the whole weather 'story' for the days ahead . Now i think the weather 'story' is all important when forecasting because it gives the viewer the wider picture. The beeb used to be EXEPTIONALY good at this and this is the reason why we all loved the bbc weather. With a mix of large cear wind arrows-pressure charts-temp gradients fading warmer - colder and symbols to tell you what the sky was up to. All this combined was excellent and really explained the whole weather picture. With the way the new graphics are used, in my opinion, just shows different shades of coulor that i cant really get my head round. What i would really, really, really like to see from the beeb is a very detailed 5 day forecast with all the above ( and yes it could still be good using the new style graphics if it was done wright) recorded every morning and put on both the internet and digital tv so the people who do want a more detailed forecast can have access to one. Now I think this could be done easily and dont see why the bbc cant do this. Does anyone agree?