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chris55

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Everything posted by chris55

  1. chris55
    Be subjective, take the output for what it is. If it rains for the next three months then so be it.
  2. chris55
    Also to throw into the mix, I'd say we see "corrections southwards" on the models far more often than things being moved north, just a thought. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif
  3. chris55
    That solid cold pool only first appears on Tuesdays 12z runs with the introduction of the Artic high into the mix, the Artic high is still there it is just the interaction with other features which either allow the cold uppers to come this way or not. But as we know this type of evolution is open to quite big changes at range. Take the ECM and GFS at 192 as an example, both are not a million miles away from each other but the outcome fro the UK is marked, http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1922.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif Modelling these small but significant changes at 192 is very difficult we need to wait until things come into the T96 range before we can bemoan the loss of the cold come T0.
  4. chris55
    In this situation you can not take 8-10 day deterministic charts with any faith, either very cold or very mild. Just sit back and see what unfolds. You may well be right, but in all honesty unless we get consistent signals in the mid range they mean nothing. And at the moment beyond day 5 is all over the place,
  5. chris55
    The models will always struggle with the positioning of the Arctic high and associated troughs/Lows/shortwaves. The upcoming pattern is by no means a two day toppler and although in the past 10 years the said scenario was the most likely, the current synoptic pattern couldn't be further from that. Just sit back and wait to see how things unfold, the Ens means are great as is the general NH pattern, if we are very unlucky it may come to nothing but IMO i doubt that.
  6. chris55
    Good post Phill, we are now entering a period where the cold options have the potential to be coming thick and fast, with a jet profile like you have pointed out in the US there is no chance of anything interesting, our upcoming spell is loaded IMO.
  7. chris55
    Squall line just arriving here, hammering down out there, and very gusty.
  8. chris55
    12z looking good for some in the southern half of the UK!! http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2402.png Although to be realistic we have a major northern hemisphere pattern change coming up with some amazing potential developments, so charts at 240 are a bit pointless. Overall an exciting time for us coldies.
  9. chris55
    Very very windy here in the last few hours, took the dog up the common and could hardly stand in the gusts, really great stuff feeling the power of mother nature!! Although I did drive past a few fence panels in the road and recycling bins strewn everywhere. Squal-line just approaching the Westcountry now, looks pretty intense!! http://www.metoffice...=5&locId=353749
  10. chris55
    Floods galore here today and absolute traffic chaos!! Had to use my local knowledge of all the back lanes to get from Eastington to Stroud via (unbeknown to me) a flooded Haresfeild. Haven't seen it like this since 07.
  11. chris55
    Perhaps you'd prefer this kind of setup? http://www.wetterzen...00120111128.gif The projected synoptics are rare, especially at this time of year, my advise would be to enjoy them while you can and hope they verify in one form or another if they do the forecasts will be full of wintry conditions
  12. chris55
    I'm liking that idea!!
  13. chris55
    Great charts again tonight! We seem to be hitting the ground running as we head into the "official" winter season, fantastic stuff.
  14. chris55
    Great runs this morning, up to day 6 we have some broad cross model agreement (with only small differences) http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png where we go from this point is open to all sorts of cold options, GFS this morning is just one possible outcome, but goes to show small shifts here and here CAN get cold air in pretty quickly. ECM at day 10 also shows much much colder air coming into the mix, although not making it to the UK on this run, it soon would. http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2402.gif Very interesting model watching at the moment!!!
  15. chris55
    This is a good point Steve, and I was just thinking the same thing. I just checked the Dewpoints, and although they are not especially low they are falling. A sustained easterly/continental airmass settling over us may change the parameters we are used to for forecasting snow. Our normal Atlantic airflow mix will be irrelevant because all our air is coming from the east.
  16. chris55
    That's the coldest mean for the last 4 days of any run so far.
  17. chris55
    Oh I do like a good Squal line! Bren over on TWO used to give a heads up on an interesting Squal line approaching. I think the infamous "thundersnow" squall line back some years ago was the most violent one I have experienced.
  18. chris55
    Continuation of great trends as we move into winter!!! And as these trends come into the more reliable time-frames we could be looking at some fun and games as we head into December!!!
  19. chris55
    Interesting Ian. Great to have a little insight into the happenings at the Met Office.
  20. chris55
    JMA and ECM very similar at 144, But JMA's evolution from this point is better, although ECM is not far away, except for the small low centred to the west of the UK. Just shows the possible options of where we may go beyond day 6.
  21. chris55
    From 168 right through till the end GFS is cool to cold with night-time frosts, cold below average days, and with fog developing widely (possibly freezing fog) And also to note is the high pressure is giving us more of a continental flow rather that one from the Atlantic hence the colder conditions at the surface. Overall for me personally this is a nice end of Autumn pattern and beats mild Atlantic weather any day. Also with all this high pressure around and a meridional jet the chance for some cold snow bearing conditions to appear are higher.
  22. chris55
    Yes those NAEFS charts just give us a potential idea of the broad pattern, the details are where the fun is but obviously at range that's not something we can look at. Having a strong high anomaly to the West/North West is a much better place to be than having a strong Low anomaly there as we head into winter!
  23. chris55
    Yes Nick, NAEFS still showing some strong and very interesting anomalies as we head towards the end of November and into December. Possibilities of the jet slipping over the top and underneath the block, helping to draw cold out of the Arctic as well as supporting the block
  24. chris55
    That just about sums up all MO discussions on the weather forums!!!!! So much information available, probably to much to be honest, but I guess thats where the fun is for us internet model watchers. We can say what we see with no one to judge us, and occasionally we do out do the Met in the longer term.
  25. chris55
    Where's the fun in that??? For most, looking for a cold spell appearing in the models at day 10+ is what it's all about when the current conditions are less favourable for cold and snow. We all know model watching at range is fraught with risks, but the data is there and most enjoy analysing it to see where our next shot at the white stuff may come from. Of course the probabilities from mid range forecasting are say 30/40% (estimate) so the odds are always stacked against the mid range model output, be it cold or mild, but it's worth some discussion, and a little excitement IMO.
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