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crimsone

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Everything posted by crimsone

  1. crimsone
    You're looking for convection in the hook area of the frontal region. Beyond that, I'm not au fait with how sting jets really work, I'm afraid. Maybe one of the forecasters could blog about it at some point.... if it's relevant or when things die down and there's a lull.
  2. crimsone
    Also that, as I seem to recall NHC discussing this time around, that for a heat engine to work, what matters is the differential between the sea and the atmosphere aloft. If the sea is a toad colder than would normally sustain a hurricane, but the atmosphere aloft still provides a sufficient temperature differential for strong and sustained convection, a hurricane can form (all other factors being favourable).
  3. crimsone
    I see that The Weather Network have helpfully provided a graphic of everywhere in Ireland that the Met Office has failed to provide appropriate warning, as shaded in Green.
  4. crimsone
    You've posted a link to a search for "hurricane"
  5. crimsone
    Hah! Snap! I remember of lovely and warm it was in Porthcawl while watching the waves Gordon caused. It was great!
  6. crimsone
    Vince.
  7. crimsone
    This is great, Jo. It's not often here on the Netweather boards that we see lightning in the UK and it's "just elevated instability" ahead of the main event. Usually, the lighting IS the main event (
  8. crimsone
    Here's my take: NHC have the expertise, and Met Office have jumped the gun... ... but that there's really not a hell of a lot in it. even the NHC discussion makes that clear - if it's still a hurricane, it's hanging on by a thread. The other possibility is that the NHC discussion was written based on observations just prior to it completing transition. Even in this case, there's next to nothing in it.
  9. crimsone
    Problem is, there's basically 4 different kinds of yellow warning, some of which need to be considered really quite seriously.
  10. crimsone
    Completely agree on the comparison, but I'd strongly argue that upon extratropical transition, ex-ophelia is a rather nasty Northern European Windstorm... just one that was originally named as a hurricane. The idea that we have to call something a hurricane before we're worried that it might be a problem is a rather silly and dangerous one, but there are a great many that hold to it.
  11. crimsone
    Arguably, the do. The expansion of the wind field means that even more people can be potentially screwed. It's also important, or so my opinion goes anyway, that people realise that a Burns Day storm is an Ex-Ophelia, a Great Storm of 87, a St. Judes storm, is a potential Brian or Caroline. Many people in the UK have a silly idea that British Weather is great and it's only freak events that kill, to the point that an EF3 in Birmingham gets called "a mini-tornado", because the UK can't possibly have a real one. I figure that part of the job of the winter storm naming convention we have going on now is to convey this. Extratropical cyclones, whether through cyclogenesis or transition, can be nasty, and misinformation kills. Heck, even to argue that to not call it a hurricane causes people to turn off fails at at least one hurdle; namely, that when you call it a hurricane, there's a swathe of people who turn off because, in that very British way, they see it as an exaggeration. Or so my feelings go, anyway.
  12. crimsone
    This was for explanation of how you could clearly see evidence that the '87 storm was not a hurricane... ... but it applies to this situation to. It may be informative...
  13. crimsone
    Damn! I don't expect to see that again any time soon! Just goes to show how serious it is, and how seriously it should be taken. Literally - that's what it's for... but DAMN!
  14. crimsone
    They mean there's lots of dry air around (the chart with the brown), it's a very deep depression (the chart with the lines), It's going to be really quite windy (the chart with the read streak), but it's not going to be especially wet considering it was a Cat 3 hurricane not long ago (the charts with the green and yellow) I sometimes take a very simplistic view No... seriously. @knocker usefully told you what they meant - I figured I'd offer a brief, if simplistic, description of what they are.
  15. crimsone
    She's not dead yet! Also... a lot. NickL posted some info earlier. Wave heights around the pembrokeshire coast will be in the region of 10/15 to 28 ft, depending on where you are. ... though that was before the track adjustment.
  16. crimsone
    Is it because the ridge is forecast to weaken a little? That track has been kinked over Ireland for days, and all of a sudden it's straight!
  17. crimsone
    I don't blame the employees at all... It's just an oft hated-on organisation for a wide variety of reasons. I honestly didn't even consider my comment in respect of people - if it was at all crass, then it was so for that reason alone, and for which I apologise. Had no idea about the concourse mind.. but living in Llanelli as I did, I've actually been there, and yes, I can quite see why that might be. Parts of that place are quite probably like a giant wind tunnel in bad weather... let alone a historic storm.
  18. crimsone
    I find myself wondering now, actually, whether that eastward shift of track could potentially push any extra water up beneath S. Wales.
  19. crimsone
    It has indeed moved to the east. The center is now forecasted to move right the way over the center of Ireland. Though the NHC has still put a big fat white H over the southern tip of ireland. I'm guessing it's due to a weakening of the high to the east of it? (haven't actually looked!) ... most of that guesswork is down to the observation that the kink has been removed from the forecast track that I'm presuming was down to a blocking ridge.
  20. crimsone
    Card or cash. Wiseman's Bridge is perfectly accessible by vehicle. The car park is about a meter ASL though. Personally, I'd be concerned about it being a bit risky though. You're braver than I if you go there.
  21. crimsone
    So, the BBC made their own graphic. It's remarkably like the NHCs track forecast graphic, except much less useful. But it does tell us where Ireland, N. Ireland, and Scotland are, incase anybody needed to know.
  22. crimsone
    Copperopolis would burn down if everyone bought candles. I don't think people know how to use them safely anymore. It'll be like a Great Fire of Swansea. On the plus side, that'd give the council a chance to try again, mind. They can start by not having bendy buses and re-opening the kingsway.
  23. crimsone
    The use of extratropical really bugs me (not you, specifically... just more generally). It means all things to everyone. I mean, all of our frontal systems are extratropical cyclones, most of which were not even initially tropical. Yet, in other uses, it refers to a no-longer-tropical cyclone. Dammit... one term for one thing! No wonder people find English hard to learn lol
  24. crimsone
    It's a bad day to live atop Town Hill, that's for sure. On the plus side, the DVLA complex will take a battering. To be fair though, I doubt there's much to be prepared for most people in Swansea. I remember riding out a nasty storm in the Garw, just outside Bridgend in the 80s - you basically just sat there and hoped the chimney stayed on.
  25. crimsone
    A yachting friend of mine has just posted a comment with a portion of the shipping forecast on my facebook. It's a pretty rare one to hear, and it goes like this...
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