crimsone

Thanks KW... I guess I'm just trying to keep both views open, and of course you're right about Erin... it was an area that was being watched for quite some time though on the graphical tropical outlook. While the fish spinners were interesting (yet equally unexciting lol) last year, one thing that did perk the season up for me was the storm that broght high seas and a very tropical feeling to the south western UK... I forget its name. I'm cautiously going for the NHC forcast being correct this year though (though their very high ACE prediction remains to be seen), and hoping to see some caribbean activity. I'd rather not see loss of life or property, but it's a lot more interesting and exciting to watch them in between the islands over there. Just to see a good number of Atlantic storms would be great though.

Excuse me for creating this thread, but what I had to ask didn't seem to fit into the subjects of the other threads so well. Apparently, we are now up to the average on named storms for this time of year... I was wondering if anybody knew where we stood with ACE? As for the rest of the month/season... things seem to be underway now... but I guess that there are two ways of looking at it. Either the season has finally "got into gear" and we can expect to see storms form more readily from now on, or it could be said that Dean is the only current storm of note - a compact storm which formed from a sizable tropical wave - while Erin just happened to form just in time under favourable conditions. There is still a reasonable amount of shear over in the Eastern Atlantic, and even over the warm GoM, 91L left it untill the last minute! I look forward to more activity this season, but with enough caution not to be dissapointed (just in case! lol) - a lesson I learned from last year. lol

If that forecast track slips any further south, the center will be making landfall along the mexican border! (could play havoc with the fences!)

What I'm wondering, is that even though the system is small now, could the higher SSTs (and thus the increased convection) add to the strength and significantly add to the size of this storm?... and with the latter (size), would it require a slowing of the forward speed?

45kt to start the morning... and forecast track has again slipped slightly further to the south.

Invest 91L has just become TD5... click here.

We have TD5! Current forcast takes it to TS strength for a brief period by the 16th at midday UTC.

As long as the shear doesn't kill it, it should I'd say the shear isn't going to kill it... that's my bet anyway

That to me looks very much like a small TD sitting in the middle of the GoM in the middle of all that cloud... maybe even a TS... I wonder if there's a closed circulation under that lot somewhere. (according to the NHC, there isn't) edit: ...which is unsuprising. I've only just realised that the last post was only 11 mins ago. lol

I've stumpled on this image of a plant... I've seen it many times before and have always liked it, but I've never known what it was, and it seems now I'm not the only one! lol Does anybody know its name? (yes, I mean the one with the purple flowers, not the nettle. lol)

no real change in the storm as yet from the latest advisory, but the track looks to have been adjusted north... aiming for a hit somewhere in the lower half of the eastern seaboard.

TD4 (previously Inv 90L) has it's own thread here

yes, the NHC do seem to be saying that development is likely... a personal inferance of course... they say "later today or tomorrow", which to me suggests the conditions are there.

Either the NHC has made a mistake, or we have TD4! (no mention of td4 in the other products right now, or in the description when you click on it... maybe that changed by the time I managed to save the screendump. lol) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml Edit: Too late! lol Discussion on TD4 here

Question..... : if this thing gets into the carribean, is there any chance of it going north into the GoM, and back out into the atlantic, or is it a fairly certain thing that it would make a full and final landfall in the US somewhere and die?

NOAA forcast update of 2 days ago... - Expected Activity - 85% chance above normal, 10% chance near normal, 5% chance below normal 13-16 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. ACE index 140%-200% of the median http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outl...hurricane.shtml

just to quote what everybody already knows anyway...

...and no, that little dot in the middle of the bottom half of the blob on the sat image above is not an eye. lol Sorry... couldn't resist ...I must confess to being curious as to exactly what it is/what caused it though... cosmic dust on the lens of the satellite? :lol:

natire at its worst, or at it's best... it depends on how you look at it, and how philosophical you want to be about it

Fantasy Island... eg, where a model is forcasting so far into the future, that an event is said to be in "fantasy island"... oftentimes things happen there that bare no resemblance to the actual odds of it happening in reality. There's a definitions thread here somewhere... ...and here it is - http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...st&p=869763

Option C... "God"/"the Divine" and the universe are one entity, giving the universe itself a sense of conciousness (though probably not one as we would consider it in human thought), and thus the universe has some innate knowledge and understanding of what it needs and what it needs rid of, using observable mechanisms, laws, and systems to these ends, resulting in the current situation today being a product of continuous and compounded change rather than design. Option D... The universe, possibly the multiverse, is in fact one big self organising system with no actual consciousness of any sort. Option E... God or not, the universe is neither stable or constant, and will one day blink out of existance, just as a star or an entire galaxy would. It's most stable state is emptyness, and the very existance of human beings in such numbers, and varied life and species in such numbers on earth (and possibly elsewhere) is in fact one symptom of the entropy now inherent in the system... ... ... ... Options F, G, and H anybody?