crimsone

I can't find much recon since the last (intermediate) advisory, and so I would imaging the pressures they give will be their best estimate, assuming they don't have information that we don't. Just looked at the loop myself... personally I think that the move at the end of the sequence may just be a big trachoidal wobble... if it was, it was certainly big enough to be somewhat better news for Jamaica unless it wobbles back!

yes... it will be the next full advisory... though from what I've seen lately, they seem to come in a little bit earlier, so anytime after the next 15 mins towards 4pm it could be there.

If it's either to survive or have anything more than a negligable affect on Dean, it'll want to get going pretty quickly.

Gawd I got tired last night! lol. Those newscasters are daft... Katrina proves 3 things... It's not just about where they eyewall hits, it's about how it hits, how strong the winds are both in and outside of the eyewall, how wide the windrange is, and how prepared the people/country are/is. Here's hoping that the general population has more sense than the media... is this still looking like the strongest hurricane to hit Jamaica in 150 years? One of the big troubles going through the eye from one side to the other isn't just the speed though... it's that the high winds reverse direction quickly... the wind blowing one way stresses structures and roofs in one direction, and then it blows against the stresses. ...those newscasters also seem to have missed this latest bit...

000 URNT12 KNHC 190352 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007 A. 19/03:17:20Z B. 16 deg 14 min N 071 deg 50 min W C. 700 mb 2383 m D. 112 kt E. 322 deg 025 nm F. 057 deg 118 kt G. 320 deg 031 nm H. 919 mb I. 6 C/ 3049 m J. 18 C/ 3050 m K. 15 C/ NA L. CLOSED M. C25 N. 12345/ 7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF302 0704A DEAN OB 23 MAX FL WIND 130 KT NE QUAD 02:14:00 Z REMNANTS OF INNER EYEWALL E060/16/13 Recon finding an increased surface wind speed at last, a slight rise in pressure, and again, remnants of the inner eye. ...recon are now heading home, and I think that really is it for me tonight!

Recon's just passed through the eye again... though still haven't fully exited the eyewall on the other side... they found a minimum pressure of 917.5 mb and maximum flight level winds of 115 kt (30 sec)

Yes... just picked up on the latest vortex message Mick... thanks - though the vortex message is saying 918 again(Advisory 24 now says the same thing). 000 URNT12 KNHC 190235 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007 A. 19/02:09:00Z B. 16 deg 10 min N 071 deg 30 min W C. 700 mb 2384 m D. 93 kt E. 219 deg 010 nm F. 305 deg 092 kt G. 220 deg 012 nm H. 918 mb I. 8 C/ 3050 m J. 16 C/ 3049 m K. 15 C/ NA L. CLOSED M. C25 N. 12345/ 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF302 0704A DEAN OB 18 REMNANTS OF INNER EYWALL E040/10/8 MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 130KT NE QUAD 02:14:00 Z That says it all really.... and also says that I shouldn't be so unsure of myself and my thoughts. lol... I refrained from saying that the inner eyewall looked practically non-existant on the way in, but there it is from recon theirselves... "REMNANTS OF INNER EYWALL E040/10/8". Also... they are no longer saying concentric, they are now giving the eye as circular and 25 nautical miles wide (28.75 miles as most of us know it), suggesting that the EWRC is quite near completion.... we will see with one last vortex message a bit later - if it is soon to be complete, it was pretty quick by any standards! NHC have genously dropped the wind speed by just 5 MpH to 145 MpH... no doubt they are expecting the speeds to pick up again (they are already going by the recon over the last few hours), as do we all. Recon are about to turn towards the SE for another pass (NE to SW), presumably then returning to base.

a couple of assumptions about inner/outer eyewalls, based on what KW said and my interpretation of what the HDObs say... Extrapolated pressure is still around 917/918... but one reading on this last pass recorded 916.2 mb. 93kt was the highest wind on the way in... and nothing after it is remotely close... on the way out, it seems to record the speeds (again my interpretation of the structure... I may be wrong) as being about 109 kt (30 sec) for the inner eyewal, and then 126 kt (30 sec) for the outer eyewall. A flight level wind of 129 kt (10 sec) was found on the way out. This pass was from the SW to the NE. If I'm correct in the assumptions of the winds being found in the respective inner/outer eyewalls, it would seem that the outer eyewall is becoming very much dominant, and the inner one is fading quite well.

Yep... recon are heading back in again... I don't think I have the energy to follow another couple of passes. edit: I may well be mistaken about it's location, but I think they've just found 89 kt (30 sec... 93 kt for 10 sec) in the outer eyewall on the way in... it will be interesting (if I'm right about that) to compare with what they find when they pass through the inner eyewall... but we won't know for another 10 mins.

Absolutely... very large it seems. I'm in two minds whether or not to follow recon for a while longer and see what they're up to, but I must admit I'm a bit sleepy myself now. It's been a fun evening.. thanks peeps (especially KW... where would we be without you? I for one would be a bit confused. lol )

One of the flight level winds after exiting the eye was 120 kt... not that changes anything much. the latest vortex message completes the recon (if I recall). 000 URNT12 KNHC 190119 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007 A. 19/01:05:20Z B. 16 deg 04 min N 071 deg 13 min W C. 700 mb 2370 m D. 100 kt E. 138 deg 012 nm F. 223 deg 105 kt G. 126 deg 005 nm H. 918 mb I. 11 C/ 3048 m J. 17 C/ 3029 m K. 15 C/ NA L. CLOSED M. CO N. 12345/ 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF302 0704A DEAN OB 12 MAX FL WIND 118 KT N QUAD 23:36:00 Z MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 123 KT NW QUAD 01:11:00 MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND IN OUTER EYEWALL Minimum central pressure down 2 mb to 918 mb... max flight level wind at 123 kt, found in the outer eyewall. Eye is concentric and closed. Surface winds estimated (90% of flight winds) at 100 kt. edit: Recon have turned due South West... possibly they will make the same two passes again in reverse? Otherwise, I have no idea where they are heading! - http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/path...5c-72.15c-72.15

Thanks for the further info KW That explains the situation very clearly Recon are heading back in this vey moment... they may well be approaching the eyewall in the next set of HDObs. In this set 83 kts (30 sec) is the highest flight level wind the've found... but they are still some way out from the middle yet. edit: Recon have just crossed the eye again... this time around they've similarly extrapolated a repeated pressure of between 917 and 918 mb, but found windspeeds of only 108 kt (30 sec... 111 kt for 10 sec) on the way back out of the eye heading to the NW

Thanks KW.. that explains a lot (as ever ) Recon have just turned agin towards the NW... they're on their way back in - I hope. lol

looking at the sattelite back an hour ago, I would have to agree there Paranoid, but I can think of no other way to explain the drop in wind speed. This is another one of those times where KW would be able to give a very useful opinion. lol Recon are still flying due east on the southern periphery of the storm

yes... I am continuing to follow the recon... ...and I'm pleased to report that now they HAVE turned. lol http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/path.cgi...2c-71.78c-71.75 they've come out of the storm in the SW, and are currently travelling in an easterly direction. I'm not sure, but I seem to recall that recon travel in an "X" pattern through the storm, and so I think thay are coming around for the next pass from the SE towards the NW.

I think it's going to be very interesting... at the moment though, what really interests me is that the pressure has dropped, and the NHC have maintained 130 kt, but recon so far have found no speeds of the sort... and currently report surface winds of only about 105 kt. The eye characteristics are given as concentric though, so we could be seeing the often mentioned EWRC underway?

(...they hadn't turned around.. I pre-empted them. lol) A vortex messsage has just arrived... or rather, the NHC have just made it public... 000 URNT12 KNHC 190000 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007 A. 18/23:37:50Z B. 16 deg 01 min N 070 deg 53 min W C. 700 mb 2382 m D. 102 kt E. 011 deg 005 nm F. 105 deg 118 kt G. 013 deg 006 nm H. EXTRAP 920 mb I. 15 C/ 3047 m J. 16 C/ 3024 m K. 15 C/ NA L. CLOSED M. CO N. 12345/ 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF302 0704A DEAN OB 06 MAX FL WIND 118 KT N QUAD 23:36:00 Z SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB MET ACCURACY 1NM

They appear to have passed back out of the eye, but didn't find any impressive windspeeds on the other side from what I could see. I'm waiting for their next transmission and hopefully we'll get a vortex message soon too. The intermediate advisory is out, and the NHC seem to have maintained 130 kt, but dropped the pressure to 920 mb. edit: Recon have just this moment turned for their second pass by the look of it.

1 hour ago... these are just beautiful! recon just repeatedly gave an extrapolated pressure of 918 mb finding 116 kt flight level winds from the ENE

they've just twice found flight level winds of 101 kt, and still not near the eyewall...

I think there'll be a few scary holiday vids whatever happens GW... perhaps a few to be found posthumously Ivan played hell with Jamaica.... if I recall the flooding situation from it was pretty serious... Dean is in a different league. The last HDObs from recon listed on the NHC site were heading in a south westerly direction from DM/Haiti about 2308z... hopefully we'll get some more soon, and hopefully they will be useful ones... there's also an intermediate advisory due out within the next half hour or so. edit: 23:18:00Z = 1001.2 mb... they're getting close(ish).

...to be honest though KW, even if there is a well timed EWRC, it's not really going to save them... the bottom line is that if Dean makes a direct hit on Jamaica, it'll be devastating. If the hit isn't direct, it will still be very nasty.

"C" is the departure time, while "A" is the invest time... does that not mean that the recon takes off at 2200z, starts taking readings sometime before 0000z (perhaps at 2300z)?, and then takes a fix on the center at 0000z? As you can probably tell, I'm confused as ever! lol

1. HURRICANE DEAN FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO A. 18/1200,1800Z A. 19/0000, 0600Z B. AFXXX 0604A DEAN B. AFXXX 0704A DEAN C. 18/1000Z C. 18/2200Z D. 15.8N 69.0W D. 16.7N 72.3W E. 18/1100Z TO 18/1800Z E. 18/2300Z TO 19/0600Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000FT If my interpretation is right, it'll be taking off in about an hour. (I never did find a legend for reading the plan of the day) edit:... oddly enough, I just found one... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutreconpod.shtml

at 10pm BST the next advisory will be with us