crimsone

Interestingly, 06z HWRF now has this thing getting almost completely smashed up over Cuba and emerging on the south side. Seems to be an outlier, but an interesting one even so.

So, the latest recon (I make it an hour ago - 1142z) seems to be reporting an open eye (ie, not at least 50% surrounded by cloud), and the beginnings of eyewall replacement, with concentric eyewalls at 15 and 30 miles. Pressure pretty steady at 947mb, which is slightly remarkable considering the above.

So, this graphic, though posted yesterday, was actually initialised about 49 hours ago... so pretty out of date. Nevertheless, it seems to provide a pretty good explanation of what the hell's going on and why.

I'm not convinced. Going by the eye, that's approximately one degree of latitude in about 10 hours.

Can't say that that's impossible, because it's not. On the current information though, it seems quite unlikely. If it happens, I'll eat my imaginary hat.

Venezuela looks like it's trying to feel like it's somehow involved here, forecasting a 10% chance of Irma ignoring all steering forces and just barrelling onward from its current location in a straight line

Pressure down to 948 mb on recon's second pass. "EYEWALL WEAKER NW THROUGH NE", they say... which presumably means the whole northern side.

Kinda beautiful, and also a bit threatening. Rather puts this thing in perspective... https://weather.us/satellite/572-w-160-n/satellite-water-vapor-15min.html#play

I should probably look up how to read a VDM again. I think the last time I read one was for Wilma lol.

*wonders how wide the eye is* This is... err... worrying... and utterly fascinating.

Speaking of threading the needle north of Cuba... there's HMON. (small video added for archival purposes. Model presentation links go out of date pretty quickly, after all) http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hmontc2.cgi?time=2017090400-irma11l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation Irma HMON 0409.mov

True enough, though according to some of the models you'd be talking about evacuating pretty much the whole State of Florida, which quite frankly is never going to happen. My view was more in respect of what would happen if Irma managed to skip past the north of Cuba and were able to get through unscathed, however. On the broad scale of the HWRF prediction, high pressure building up over the US would look to stall it a little and pull it northwards, painting a landfall target (at this range) anywhere between, potentially, Houston and New Orleans - unlikely, perhaps, but stranger things have happened. If that were the outlook, I'd possibly be somewhat thankful for those Cuban mountains. As it is, if it just comes close to Cuba before making for the Panhandle, with a stroke of luck we get the best of all worlds - reduced strength, minimal issues in Cuba, and a weakened hurricane in Florida. Alas, there's a good number of islands between Irma and Cuba though. On the other hand, if it crosses Cuba, that could be morbidly interesting. Not just for Cuba, but for wherever it goes after. Looking at the models, I don't really see many welcome outcomes for this storm.

The one saving grace of a Cuban landfall is that Cuba is actually a pretty mountainous little island, and they stand a good chance of ripping up Irma, reducing her strength. Not especially good news for Cuba or Haiti, admittedly, but compared with a direct hit on the southern tip of Florida before heading right up past the panhandle... ... Wherever this thing goes, it's going to be a problem for someone. The worst cases for this storm somewhat remind me of the horror of realising what Katrina might be about to do. Not comparing the two here... just pointing out that there comes a point, when following the North Atlantic Hurricane season, where you have to be prepared to let your fascination with hurricanes mingle with the certainty of watching the oncoming cause of death for a lot of people.

Interestingly, HWRF is going all out there, and suggesting a landfall on Cuba.

This intense Florida hit scenario was predicted by navgem about a day before any other model. I wonder what navgem saw that GFS didn't?

It looks almost as though she tried to form a twin and ate her own tail in doing so.

Worth noting that he also says that Florida is still at risk though. They should probably make some basic preparations/arrangements just in case, and keep a close eye on the forecast at this point.

This would be bad. Very bad.

Interesting little tropical depression/storm forming down at the Antilles in that model too.

If I've learned anything from following hurricanes in North Atlantic over the years, it's to never say never... especially not with more than 3 days to go. If it follows the south edge of the cone, it gets run ragged over the mountains of Cuba. North, and the Bahamas have an incredibly bad day, possibly followed by New York/Jersey. All the while assuming that the cone itself doesn't change too much.

SSTs look pretty tasty wherever it ends up. Hopefully not the texas coast though, by which time temps will have all but recovered from Harvey.

I can't imagine that we'll ever see another Hurricane Harvey. We *might* see one like it (Come on... how many of us saw that we'd see a mess as big as Katrina caused again in our lifetimes?), but chances are that that name is getting retired.

I tend to trust the guys at the NHC, who say that it doesn't do that until weakening back to a tropical storm, and may not do so at all (ie, track forecast)

Unlikely in the time left before landfall.